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Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

frightenedinmatenum2 said:
:sens
  • Elias Pettersson (8 years, 11.6M, NMC on July 1st)
  • Radek Faksa (1 year, 812.5k, STL & Vancouver Both Retain)
Cap In = 12.4125 over two roster spots
Cap Out = 12.775M over three roster spots
Difference = 412.5k (Very tight, may have to roll with 22 player roster, or place Gregor on LTIR)

:nucks
  • Josh Norris (6 years, 7.95M)
  • Brandon Saad (2 years, 4.5M)
  • Zack Ostapchuk (2 years, 825k)
  • STL 2025 1st Round Pick (Top 12 Protected)
  • OTT 2025 5th Round Pick (Faksa retention compensation)
  • The Less Valuable Of OTT 2025 2nd Round Pick or the VAN 2025 2nd Round Pick
Cap In = 14.0875 over three roster spots.
Cap Out = 11.6 over one roster spot.
Difference = 937.5k or less after sending down two 775k+ players.


:blues
  • David Perron (2 years 4M, possible LTIR)
  • Cole Reinhardt (1 year 775k, RFA)
  • The More Valuable Of OTT 2025 2nd Round Pick or the VAN 2025 2nd Round Pick
  • OTT 2026 3rd Round Pick
  • OTT 2027 2nd Round Pick
Click to expand...
St.Louis giving up a first round pick when they're not a playoff team and only getting Perron as a roster player back won't work for them. Armstrong is a decent GM who'd want more. If a trade like that were to go down, let's hope they take JBD or Boucher as valuable returns lol
 
If you believe that the difference between Norris and Pettersson is not very high in this scenario. You could substitute the convoluted swap of picks for something like Ostapchuk+2nd.

Pettersson+Faksa to OTT (Faksa double-retained)
Norris+Saad+Ostapchuk+(Whatever non-1st round draft picks you think belong here from OTT) to VAN
Perron+Reinhardt to STL

bicboi64 said:
St.Louis giving up a first round pick when they're not a playoff team and only getting Perron as a roster player back won't work for them. Armstrong is a decent GM who'd want more. If a trade like that were to go down, let's hope they take JBD or Boucher as valuable returns lol
Click to expand...

It's a protected 1st for multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks to restock the cupboard. But I do agree that is a reach to think a team would give up a 1st right now. That's more of a draft day type move when they know where they are picking.

The Perron for Saad+Faksa (half retained) swap is cap considerations built into the deal that helps all sides. Ottawa needs to move Perron without taking back cap to make room for Pettersson. So the solution is that they do the right thing by Perron and send him back to STL, and VAN takes Saad as a proxy for Perron's cap.
 
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frightenedinmatenum2 said:
:sens
  • Elias Pettersson (8 years, 11.6M, NMC on July 1st)
  • Radek Faksa (1 year, 812.5k, STL & Vancouver Both Retain)
Cap In = 12.4125 over two roster spots
Cap Out = 12.775M over three roster spots
Difference = 412.5k (Very tight, may have to roll with 22 player roster, or place Gregor on LTIR)

:nucks
  • Josh Norris (6 years, 7.95M)
  • Brandon Saad (2 years, 4.5M)
  • Zack Ostapchuk (2 years, 825k)
  • STL 2025 1st Round Pick (Top 12 Protected)
  • OTT 2025 5th Round Pick (Faksa retention compensation)
  • The Less Valuable Of OTT 2025 2nd Round Pick or the VAN 2025 2nd Round Pick
Cap In = 14.0875 over three roster spots.
Cap Out = 11.6 over one roster spot.
Difference = 937.5k or less after sending down two 775k+ players.


:blues
  • David Perron (2 years 4M, possible LTIR)
  • Cole Reinhardt (1 year 775k, RFA)
  • The More Valuable Of OTT 2025 2nd Round Pick or the VAN 2025 2nd Round Pick
  • OTT 2026 3rd Round Pick
  • OTT 2027 2nd Round Pick

----

Why St.Louis Does It:
I assume Vancouver wants a 1st round pick in the deal. Ottawa might be unwilling to trade their first, because they already have to give a 1st to the league. The purpose of St.Louis is to give Vancouver a 1st round pick.

Ottawa trades St.Louis Blues two 2nd round picks, a 3rd round pick, Cole Reinhardt, and cap considerations for their 1st round pick (top 12 protected). The cap considerations are dumping half of Faksa's contract, and gaining 500k this year and next year by swapping Brandon Saad for David Perron.

Why would St. Louis sell off their 1st for multiple lesser assets? They have very few draft picks the next three years. This year, they only have their 1st, a 5th, and a 6th. They are also missing their 2nd round pick for two years after that.

Lastly, this trade makes Vancouver worse AND moves Pettersson to the Eastern Conference. St.Louis is battling Vancouver for a Wild Card spot. Pettersson for Norris is a major downgrade.

----

Why Vancouver Does It:
Jim Rutherford has been candid that there is no good solution for Vancouver. He says that they need to get a center back, and he expects it to be a downgrade. He seems to be preparing the fanbase for the possibility that they will only get a 2C or a 3C back.

The previous players rumoured to be involved in a Pettersson deal were Necas and Kotkaniemi, but Carolina chose Rantanen instead. With that offer off the table, it's fair to assume that any deal remaining would be worse if that was their top choice.

Vancouver does not want Saad. The point of taking Saad is to make it cap in/cap out for Ottawa. The only team that Ottawa could respectfully approach Perron about a trade to would be St.Louis, since he apparently still calls a suburb of the city his adopted hometown. Vancouver taking Saad from St.Louis is a proxy to allow Ottawa to dump Perron without having to attach an asset to him.

Ostapchuk has ties to Vancouver. He played his entire Junior career for the Vancouver Giants. He is one of the Senators top prospects and he can contribute for Vancouver right away.

Norris is the 2C that Rutherford claims that they need to get back. The 1st round pick and Ostapchuk bridge the gap in value between Norris and Pettersson.

----

Why Ottawa Does It:
They want to take advantage of the opportunity to add what they see as a superstar, and a piece that could take their team to the next level. While the package looks substantial on paper, the reality is that two 2nds and a 3rd is like giving up one first. A first and Ostapchuk is not a high price to upgrade Norris to Pettersson.

----

The long+short term cap should work for each team once you adjust for any incidental moves. You can add any AHL contracts needed to even out the contract numbers. If the cap doesn't actually work, it's most likely something minor that could be tweaked. But it should be very close to cap in/cap out for Ottawa and Vancouver. St.Louis gains cap space.

If you think Ostapchuk+STL 1st is too much of an add, you can simplify the trade by taking out the OTT+STL swap of picks and simply keep St.Louis in to facilitate the Perron for Saad swap. Which I assume they would do, since it would save them cap.
Click to expand...
How is Perron a possible LTIR? He's currently playing...
 
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Micklebot said:
How is Perron a possible LTIR? He's currently playing...
Click to expand...

I mean long-term. If it is true that he has a bulging disc in his back, it's possible that if both he and the Blues are open to it, he could go on LTIR at one point.

With that said, I shouldn't have pointed that out since it's not entirely relevant to the trade. It might be a bonus for St.Louis if he could LTIRetire next year, but it shouldn't be a deal breaker.
 
GCK said:
To Buffalo

EP or JT Miller

To Vancouver

Byram
Greig or Norris

To Ottawa

Jack Quinn

Who says no
Click to expand...

Norris for Jack Quinn would be a homerun simply for getting out of the Norris contract and adding a player with upside. The Ottawa connection is a bonus.

The only thing I don't like is enabling a division rival to add a possible difference making forward. They are deep on D. For us, we arguably get worse in the short term. The short term being very important, since we're gunning for a playoff spot. I don't think Quinn is an upgrade on Norris right now.

It would open up 7M to add a player from a different team. It would be better if someone extra came our way from Buffalo or Vancouver, even if it was just a top 9 forward or a bottom pairing D.
 
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dumbdick said:
Unless you have a crystal ball, you're just assuming this is selling low.

If he gets injured or declines, this would be selling high
Click to expand...
Ok and what type of injury would he sustain that wouldn't effectively end his career (like, LTIR forever) and is not related to his current injury history that would be a cause for concern (ie. something totally new)?

And what evidence is there of his decline? He's only 25 and he hasn't even played 250 NHL games yet. He's not even a fully developed player, let alone one on the down-swing of his career.

The evidence we have so far is the guy has played very little hockey since his first shoulder injury in Jan 2022.
 
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BankStreetParade said:
Ok and what type of injury would he sustain that wouldn't effectively end his career (like, LTIR forever) and is not related to his current injury history that would be a cause for concern (ie. something totally new)?

And what evidence is there of his decline? He's only 25 and he hasn't even played 250 NHL games yet. He's not even a fully developed player, let alone one on the down-swing of his career.

The evidence we have so far is the guy has played very little hockey since his first shoulder injury in Jan 2022.
Click to expand...

I'm not really sure what you're arguing about. If he declines and never returns to form, selling now would be selling high.

That's not a contentious statement.
 
dumbdick said:
I'm not really sure what you're arguing about. If he declines and never returns to form, selling now would be selling high.

That's not a contentious statement.
Click to expand...
It's not a complicated question. What evidence is there that he's declining rather than a guy playing on one of the lowest scoring teams in the league?
 
dumbdick said:
I'm not really sure what you're arguing about. If he declines and never returns to form, selling now would be selling high.

That's not a contentious statement.
Click to expand...
Generally when people say we'd be selling low right now, it's because they are taking into account the likelihood of a players value increasing, it's never a sure thing, but there are some typically made assumptions like young players tend to improve, old players tend to regress,

Just saying, well actually maybe we'd be selling high isn't really advancing the discussion unless you provide some sort of rationale why you think it's more likely his value would decrease,

Wrt Norris, the biggest question seems to be health, specifically his shoulder, but with every game that passes, that seems to be less of a concern.
 
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Luckily this board is seldom right when it comes to trades, Ott doesn't need another soft perimeter player. They have plenty of skill, they are playing really well defensively & when the offence comes back they should be even better than they are now as long as we continue to get good to great goaltending.

Agent Zuuuub said:
Miller seems to be a guy that gets on teammates quick and intensely if they make a mistake.

Not sure the relationship between Brady or Stutzle would be particularly cozy either.
Click to expand...
Why would you say this? They seem to be best of friends, Stutzle looked very happy to see Brady score. Same for Norris & Stuztle given Norris can speak some German, they also seem to be good friends, in fact, this entire team seem to all get along really well these days.
 
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aragorn said:
Why would you say this? They seem to be best of friends, Stutzle looked very happy to see Brady score. Same for Norris & Stuztle given Norris can speak some German, they also seem to be good friends, in fact, this entire team seem to all get along really well these days.
Click to expand...
I believe he's talking about how JT Miller would get along with Brady/Stu
 
OttawaSenators11 said:
Petterson contract is scary - 11.6M for next 7 years and only 11 goals so far

Great player before the contract, what’s happening with him ? Would certainly be a big gamble, that’s for sure!
Click to expand...

Also, NMC kicks in next year for the rest of the contract. You'd have to be *really* sure about the player you're getting to go down that road.
 
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DackellDuck said:
What would we rather have next year:

a) Norris + Bjorkstrand = 13.35M
b) Pettersson + 1.5M winger = 13.1M

I'd take (a), and the + you'd have to add to Norris probably gets you someone like Bjorkstrand.

That 11.6M salary is something I wouldn't touch.
Click to expand...
easily pettersson.... especially with Norris injury history
 
BankStreetParade said:
I've said it about a number of players but it bears repeating again, with all this Norris talk: selling low on players makes absolutely no sense. If so many of you had had your way, Chabot would be flourishing somewhere else this season and who knows what we would have got in return.
Click to expand...
zero chance that Norris ends up better or equal to Pettersson. That was never his potential. Norris is never going to be a 100 point player

You add in the injury history and Ottawa would be dumb not to explore it
 
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