Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Micklebot]

Yes, I do agree on that (bolded) point. And, thanks for clarifying!

One thing in terms of a little more detail on the advanced stats is that I have mentioned a few weeks ago that our advanced stats have regressed. I’m thinking the October stats look better than the November stats. I don’t think the idea that the advanced stats could regress got a huge amount of attention.

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

 

[Big Muddy]

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

Ya, I didn’t do a deep dive. What did the all situation stats look like? You devote more time to this than I do (I’m often too lazy admittedly).

Interesting that the correlation between improved advanced stats and scoring hasn’t materialized. If the “expected” stats behave the way they are supposed to (a future indicator) then we should see some improvement.

 

[Dionysus]

Wrong thread.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Titles don't matter in the NHL. What matters is who is actually in control. Usually control and responsibility is delegated completely differently from team to team, regardless of whether their executives have the same title. One GM might be running the show, while another GM might be a sounding board for the POHO who makes the real choices.

I think the reason that he was brought in as POHO was because Dorion was already GM and they took over the team at the worst possible time near the end of the offseason. Whether they had more nefarious reasons for keeping Dorion, like they wanted to use him as a scapegoat if/when his build failed, or they valued him, or they simply weren't ready from a day-to-day perspective to replace the management team, who knows.

I guess what I am getting at is that he probably does the same job regardless of what he is called. So being called both POHO and GM doesn't matter. He could be called the Emperor of Kanata and his role is still the same.

So the guy spent a billion dollars on an NHL franchise and didn't have a plan for the key executive positions in the organization beyond "my buddy Steve won with me in the OHL"??? Come on. When are you guys going to stop with this nonsense?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

So the guy spent a billion dollars on an NHL franchise and didn't have a plan for the key executive positions in the organization beyond "my buddy Steve won with me in the OHL"??? Come on. When are you guys going to stop with this nonsense?

I don't know how you got that from my post.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't know how you got that from my post.

Did you read the second paragraph you wrote?

I think the reason that he was brought in as POHO was because Dorion was already GM and they took over the team at the worst possible time near the end of the offseason. Whether they had more nefarious reasons for keeping Dorion, like they wanted to use him as a scapegoat if/when his build failed, or they valued him, or they simply weren't ready from a day-to-day perspective to replace the management team, who knows.

My response is perfectly in line with this paragraph. He spent a billion dollars on the franchise and he didn't know who would be the key decision makers beyond his buddy from the OHL.

 

[DackellDuck]

If we’re rational about it, there’s no path for this team to become a Cup contender. None. It’s not happening.

The best we can hope for, but it’ll still require several good trades/moves, is being a team that’s around the wildcard over the next 3-4 years. And even accomplishing that won’t be a walk in the park.

But that’s the ceiling.

So we’ll see what they do. It’s not an easy choice. We can tread water for a few years, hopefully stop ticket sales from bottoming out, and then tear it all down in a few years once these contracts start expiring. Maybe then the allure of a new building gets people excited to see a losing team.

Or you can tear it all down now, again, and aim to be good again when the new building opens.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

Yet

Our record in Oct: wins 7 losses 3

Our record in November: wins 5, losses 8, OT 1

Ya, I didn’t do a deep dive. What did the all situation stats look like? You devote more time to this than I do (I’m often too lazy admittedly).

Interesting that the correlation between improved advanced stats and scoring hasn’t materialized. If the “expected” stats behave the way they are supposed to (a future indicator) then we should see some improvement.

They said in the intermission that the Senators allowed a PP goal in their last 5 games. So, maybe PK record slipped in November?

 

[PlayOn]

If we’re rational about it, there’s no path for this team to become a Cup contender. None. It’s not happening.

The best we can hope for, but it’ll still require several good trades/moves, is being a team that’s around the wildcard over the next 3-4 years. And even accomplishing that won’t be a walk in the park.

But that’s the ceiling.

So we’ll see what they do. It’s not an easy choice. We can tread water for a few years, hopefully stop ticket sales from bottoming out, and then tear it all down in a few years once these contracts start expiring. Maybe then the allure of a new building gets people excited to see a losing team.

Or you can tear it all down now, again, and aim to be good again when the new building opens.

The idea that you can’t improve while being a middling team is odd. Washington just did it this off season. And I do recognize we will have a harder time attracting players, but it’s not like we’re stuck with what we have today either.

Now will we? I don’t know. I tend to think we need a retool to fix some of this. But it’s tough to definitively say there’s no path, teams change so much in just a few years.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

The idea that you can’t improve while being a middling team is odd. Washington just did it this off season. And I do recognize we will have a harder time attracting players, but it’s not like we’re stuck with what we have today either.

Now will we? I don’t know. I tend to think we need a retool to fix some of this. But it’s tough to definitively say there’s no path, teams change so much in just a few years.

It’ll have to be drastic no matter what if there’s a “re-tool”. Brady’s looming NMC plays a big part. I don’t want to trade him, but I’m also not naive enough to think he’s going to stick it out with this team if we miss the playoffs this year. If Staios doesn’t somehow get 100% assurance from Brady that he’s on board then you have to move him before he uses his NMC and we get a dog shit return.

 

[Micklebot]

Yet

Our record in Oct: wins 7 losses 3

Our record in November: wins 5, losses 8, OT 1

Like I said, we aren't finishing our chances and the PP took a big step back. We are scoring almost a goal less per 60 despite more scoring chances, and the PP fell off a cliff. Resolve those two issues and we've likely got a better record in Nov

 

[PlayOn]

It’ll have to be drastic no matter what if there’s a “re-tool”. Brady’s looming NMC plays a big part. I don’t want to trade him, but I’m also not naive enough to think he’s going to stick it out with this team if we miss the playoffs this year. If Staios doesn’t somehow get 100% assurance from Brady that he’s on board then you have to move him before he uses his NMC and we get a dog shit return.

Yeah I agree, I think he will be gone if we miss.

I don’t really see a perfect path regardless. Tear it all down and it fails again, that’s catastrophic for this franchise — so I don’t see them doing it, and we have some good young pieces anyway. A retool if we miss the playoffs that involves Brady would be a huge loss. We have to hit on that trade. But even in a world where we make the playoffs somehow, our roster at this stage doesn’t scream perennial contender, so I don’t even think next year would be a guarantee.

No matter what they’ve got a lot of work to do. Whichever way it goes they need to make changes. Moreso than the route we take I think it’s just gonna come down to how good Staios is at his job.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Like I said, we aren't finishing our chances and the PP took a big step back. We are scoring almost a goal less per 60 despite more scoring chances, and the PP fell off a cliff. Resolve those two issues and we've likely got a better record in Nov

Yes, PP & scoring has regressed in November.

In the intermission they said the Senators have allowed a PP goal in the last 5 games. So, the PK might be worse as well? Not sure where you get PK percentages per month info.

Its a statement of the obvious, but it all boils down to Wins in the end. Other stats are subservient.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, PP & scoring has regressed in November.

In the intermission they said the Senators have allowed a PP goal in the last 5 games. So, the PK might be worse as well? Not sure where you get PK percentages per month info.

Its a statement of the obvious, but it all boils down to Wins in the end. Other stats are subservient.

I'm using /60 mins numbers rather than /power play, but NHL.com does allow you to select a date range,

OCT:
PP 42.9% (17.55 GF/60)
PK 76% (8.3 GA/60)

NOV
PP 20% (7.35 GF/60)
PK 76.7% (8.98 GA/60)

Generally speaking, if your special teams are combined over 100, you are doing ok. We were a touch below in Nov so no help, and well over in Oct.

Bringing this back to the thread topic, I think the underlying numbers show us as a low event team stylistically, the problem with that is we also tend to be a team that has historically had breakdowns that cost us (our breakdowns are more catastrophic than other low event teams). Whether you are a low event team or a high event team, either style can work, but as a low event team, mistakes are harder to overcome. So with that in mind, I think if we're going to continue to play Green's low event system, which seems to be effective wrt the underlying numbers, then we need to address the breakdowns,

With that in mind, I think the biggest need is on D, particularly with Zub hurt. Hamonic in the top 4 isn't cutting it, and we don't seem to want to try JBD there. Not sure who is available that could fill the need, Jiricek is off the board, as is Fabbro, my guess is there aren't many if any other RHD options available unfortunate.

 

[Tuna99]

Just want to point out:

Boston trade Joe Thornton, Frill Kessel and Tyler Seguin and won a Cup

Av’s traded Ryan O’Reilly and Matt Duchene and won a Cup

Lots of examples of star player’s getting traded. The idea you have to win with the top players you drafted is completely wrong.

 

[Senscore]

Just want to point out:

Boston trade Joe Thornton, Frill Kessel and Tyler Seguin and won a Cup

Av’s traded Ryan O’Reilly and Matt Duchene and won a Cup

Lots of examples of star player’s getting traded. The idea you have to win with the top players you drafted is completely wrong.

We traded Karlsson and while things haven't exactly gone super great since then I don't think anyone would take that one back.

 

[Tuna99]

We traded Karlsson and while things haven't exactly gone super great since then I don't think anyone would take that one back.

This “be careful what you wish for” segment of the media that is so weak kneed now, they don’t know what they are talking about they are just talking out loud to get hits.

how Patronizing is Elliot Friedman from his condo in Toronto telling Sens fans how to react. So condescending - how about Friedman sit through 600 games of disgusting hockey over 8 years and then we’ll him how to feel.

Local media is alright, national media and the Sens is like going to an elitist cafe in Toronto where coffees cost $9 each and asking their fully uninformed opinion of the Ottawa Senators

 

[Loach]

This “be careful what you wish for” segment of the media that is so weak kneed now, they don’t know what they are talking about they are just talking out loud to get hits.

how Patronizing is Elliot Friedman from his condo in Toronto telling Sens fans how to react. So condescending - how about Friedman sit through 600 games of disgusting hockey over 8 years and then we’ll him how to feel.

Local media is alright, national media and the Sens is like going to an elitist cafe in Toronto where coffees cost $9 each and asking their fully uninformed opinion of the Ottawa Senators

Coffee costs 9$ everywhere.

 

[ottawagm]

As long as our ownership refuses to trade Brady if he demands a trade once his NMC kicks in. Otherwise, trade him before we get pennies in return when he forces a trade to a team without cap space.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This “be careful what you wish for” segment of the media that is so weak kneed now, they don’t know what they are talking about they are just talking out loud to get hits.

how Patronizing is Elliot Friedman from his condo in Toronto telling Sens fans how to react. So condescending - how about Friedman sit through 600 games of disgusting hockey over 8 years and then we’ll him how to feel.

Local media is alright, national media and the Sens is like going to an elitist cafe in Toronto where coffees cost $9 each and asking their fully uninformed opinion of the Ottawa Senators

The "media" just isn't what it used to be. Nobody should be looking at them for any reasonable substance at this point. It's all crap and applies to most pro sports now. Fluff and spoon fed crap seems to be all they want to give anymore.

 

[PlayOn]

As long as our ownership refuses to trade Brady if he demands a trade once his NMC kicks in. Otherwise, trade him before we get pennies in return when he forces a trade to a team without cap space.

We only have three years left on his contract.

That means we’d have two more seasons with him at most bc when his contract extension discussions can begin and he’s clearly going to walk, we would trade him that summer and for a much lesser return.

Really no sense in doing that unless you believe we’re winning the cup in the next two seasons. I can’t imagine there is a person on earth that believes that.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm using /60 mins numbers rather than /power play, but NHL.com does allow you to select a date range,

OCT:
PP 42.9% (17.55 GF/60)
PK 76% (8.3 GA/60)

NOV
PP 20% (7.35 GF/60)
PK 76.7% (8.98 GA/60)

Generally speaking, if your special teams are combined over 100, you are doing ok. We were a touch below in Nov so no help, and well over in Oct.

Bringing this back to the thread topic, I think the underlying numbers show us as a low event team stylistically, the problem with that is we also tend to be a team that has historically had breakdowns that cost us (our breakdowns are more catastrophic than other low event teams). Whether you are a low event team or a high event team, either style can work, but as a low event team, mistakes are harder to overcome. So with that in mind, I think if we're going to continue to play Green's low event system, which seems to be effective wrt the underlying numbers, then we need to address the breakdowns,

With that in mind, I think the biggest need is on D, particularly with Zub hurt. Hamonic in the top 4 isn't cutting it, and we don't seem to want to try JBD there. Not sure who is available that could fill the need, Jiricek is off the board, as is Fabbro, my guess is there aren't many if any other RHD options available unfortunate.

Thanks for the info on NHL.com. I did check a few sites, but ironically not NHL.com.

I’ve thought the same thing. We don’t score enough (e.g. 5 v 5), so we can’t overcome our mistakes. We need to be close to mistake free (especially egregious mistakes) and our goalies need to stop everything. That’s hard to do pretty much for all teams.

I’m not expecting any quick fixes, so I guess I’m not likely to get all lathered up about that.