Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Micklebot]

Yes, I do agree on that (bolded) point. And, thanks for clarifying!

One thing in terms of a little more detail on the advanced stats is that I have mentioned a few weeks ago that our advanced stats have regressed. I’m thinking the October stats look better than the November stats. I don’t think the idea that the advanced stats could regress got a huge amount of attention.

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

 

[Big Muddy]

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

Ya, I didn’t do a deep dive. What did the all situation stats look like? You devote more time to this than I do (I’m often too lazy admittedly).

Interesting that the correlation between improved advanced stats and scoring hasn’t materialized. If the “expected” stats behave the way they are supposed to (a future indicator) then we should see some improvement.

 

[Dionysus]

Wrong thread.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Titles don't matter in the NHL. What matters is who is actually in control. Usually control and responsibility is delegated completely differently from team to team, regardless of whether their executives have the same title. One GM might be running the show, while another GM might be a sounding board for the POHO who makes the real choices.

I think the reason that he was brought in as POHO was because Dorion was already GM and they took over the team at the worst possible time near the end of the offseason. Whether they had more nefarious reasons for keeping Dorion, like they wanted to use him as a scapegoat if/when his build failed, or they valued him, or they simply weren't ready from a day-to-day perspective to replace the management team, who knows.

I guess what I am getting at is that he probably does the same job regardless of what he is called. So being called both POHO and GM doesn't matter. He could be called the Emperor of Kanata and his role is still the same.

So the guy spent a billion dollars on an NHL franchise and didn't have a plan for the key executive positions in the organization beyond "my buddy Steve won with me in the OHL"??? Come on. When are you guys going to stop with this nonsense?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

So the guy spent a billion dollars on an NHL franchise and didn't have a plan for the key executive positions in the organization beyond "my buddy Steve won with me in the OHL"??? Come on. When are you guys going to stop with this nonsense?

I don't know how you got that from my post.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't know how you got that from my post.

Did you read the second paragraph you wrote?

I think the reason that he was brought in as POHO was because Dorion was already GM and they took over the team at the worst possible time near the end of the offseason. Whether they had more nefarious reasons for keeping Dorion, like they wanted to use him as a scapegoat if/when his build failed, or they valued him, or they simply weren't ready from a day-to-day perspective to replace the management team, who knows.

My response is perfectly in line with this paragraph. He spent a billion dollars on the franchise and he didn't know who would be the key decision makers beyond his buddy from the OHL.

 

[DackellDuck]

If we’re rational about it, there’s no path for this team to become a Cup contender. None. It’s not happening.

The best we can hope for, but it’ll still require several good trades/moves, is being a team that’s around the wildcard over the next 3-4 years. And even accomplishing that won’t be a walk in the park.

But that’s the ceiling.

So we’ll see what they do. It’s not an easy choice. We can tread water for a few years, hopefully stop ticket sales from bottoming out, and then tear it all down in a few years once these contracts start expiring. Maybe then the allure of a new building gets people excited to see a losing team.

Or you can tear it all down now, again, and aim to be good again when the new building opens.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Hmm... Idk about that. 5v5 fancy stats at least look almost universally better in Nov. The big difference is we aren't scoring on the chances we create at the same rate as we were in Oct,

Month​

GP​

Points​

Point %​

CF%​

SF/60​

SA/60​

SF%​

GF/60​

GA/60​

GF%​

xGF/60​

xGA/60​

xGF%​

SCF/60​

SCA/60​

SCF%​

HDCF/60​

HDCA/60​

HDCF%​

October​

9​

10​

0.556​

49.31​

31.34​

27.89​

52.91​

2.76​

2.9​

48.78​

2.37​

2.46​

49.05​

24.57​

28.02​

46.72​

8.14​

10.77​

43.07​

November​

14​

11​

0.393​

54.57​

29.56​

25.95​

53.26​

1.95​

2.78​

41.18​

2.32​

2.08​

52.63​

28.26​

25.58​

52.5​

9.08​

8.9​

50.52​

The other big factor is the PP went from 17.5GF/60 to about 7.3

Yet

Our record in Oct: wins 7 losses 3

Our record in November: wins 5, losses 8, OT 1

Ya, I didn’t do a deep dive. What did the all situation stats look like? You devote more time to this than I do (I’m often too lazy admittedly).

Interesting that the correlation between improved advanced stats and scoring hasn’t materialized. If the “expected” stats behave the way they are supposed to (a future indicator) then we should see some improvement.

They said in the intermission that the Senators allowed a PP goal in their last 5 games. So, maybe PK record slipped in November?

 

[PlayOn]

If we’re rational about it, there’s no path for this team to become a Cup contender. None. It’s not happening.

The best we can hope for, but it’ll still require several good trades/moves, is being a team that’s around the wildcard over the next 3-4 years. And even accomplishing that won’t be a walk in the park.

But that’s the ceiling.

So we’ll see what they do. It’s not an easy choice. We can tread water for a few years, hopefully stop ticket sales from bottoming out, and then tear it all down in a few years once these contracts start expiring. Maybe then the allure of a new building gets people excited to see a losing team.

Or you can tear it all down now, again, and aim to be good again when the new building opens.

The idea that you can’t improve while being a middling team is odd. Washington just did it this off season. And I do recognize we will have a harder time attracting players, but it’s not like we’re stuck with what we have today either.

Now will we? I don’t know. I tend to think we need a retool to fix some of this. But it’s tough to definitively say there’s no path, teams change so much in just a few years.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

The idea that you can’t improve while being a middling team is odd. Washington just did it this off season. And I do recognize we will have a harder time attracting players, but it’s not like we’re stuck with what we have today either.

Now will we? I don’t know. I tend to think we need a retool to fix some of this. But it’s tough to definitively say there’s no path, teams change so much in just a few years.

It’ll have to be drastic no matter what if there’s a “re-tool”. Brady’s looming NMC plays a big part. I don’t want to trade him, but I’m also not naive enough to think he’s going to stick it out with this team if we miss the playoffs this year. If Staios doesn’t somehow get 100% assurance from Brady that he’s on board then you have to move him before he uses his NMC and we get a dog shit return.

 

[Micklebot]

Yet

Our record in Oct: wins 7 losses 3

Our record in November: wins 5, losses 8, OT 1

Like I said, we aren't finishing our chances and the PP took a big step back. We are scoring almost a goal less per 60 despite more scoring chances, and the PP fell off a cliff. Resolve those two issues and we've likely got a better record in Nov

 

[PlayOn]

It’ll have to be drastic no matter what if there’s a “re-tool”. Brady’s looming NMC plays a big part. I don’t want to trade him, but I’m also not naive enough to think he’s going to stick it out with this team if we miss the playoffs this year. If Staios doesn’t somehow get 100% assurance from Brady that he’s on board then you have to move him before he uses his NMC and we get a dog shit return.

Yeah I agree, I think he will be gone if we miss.

I don’t really see a perfect path regardless. Tear it all down and it fails again, that’s catastrophic for this franchise — so I don’t see them doing it, and we have some good young pieces anyway. A retool if we miss the playoffs that involves Brady would be a huge loss. We have to hit on that trade. But even in a world where we make the playoffs somehow, our roster at this stage doesn’t scream perennial contender, so I don’t even think next year would be a guarantee.

No matter what they’ve got a lot of work to do. Whichever way it goes they need to make changes. Moreso than the route we take I think it’s just gonna come down to how good Staios is at his job.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Like I said, we aren't finishing our chances and the PP took a big step back. We are scoring almost a goal less per 60 despite more scoring chances, and the PP fell off a cliff. Resolve those two issues and we've likely got a better record in Nov

Yes, PP & scoring has regressed in November.

In the intermission they said the Senators have allowed a PP goal in the last 5 games. So, the PK might be worse as well? Not sure where you get PK percentages per month info.

Its a statement of the obvious, but it all boils down to Wins in the end. Other stats are subservient.