Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Erik Alfredsson]

We do not need old declining vets on high salary retirement contracts.

A previously experienced and successful coaching staff would help immensely.

Who should be traded away to change the "culture"? Any playboys?

Derick Brassard just said the other day when he retired that the team needs more of a veteran presence. He said that Giroux isn't enough veteran leadership.

“The team has been looking for each other for several years. There is talent, but everything has to be in place. We need more mature players. There's Claude Giroux, but it takes more than a leader to help Brady [Tkachuk]. He was made captain at a young age, he needed help. Even the oldest leaders in Montreal, like Nick Suzuki, need their David Savard, their Mike Matheson. »

The Senators also need reinforcements on defense. “Take the Stanley Cup Final. There is no space on the ice. You must be able to counter the best opposing players. Thomas Chabot has been there for several years, but he needs to be supported. Jake Sanderson has just arrived and at only 21 years old, it's not fair to put that on his shoulders. If they can add at least two defenders capable of taking big minutes, with experience, it will help them. »

So I disagree, I think the team does need some vets to help teach and mentor these young players on how to become proper pros.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Well, he did win a vezina when he played 49, so it doesn't appear as though he's a goalie that can't handle the workload,

So, Ullmark takes say 50 games, leaving 32 for presumably Korpisalo,

So, Lets make some assumptions:


We bring in a top 4 RHD, defensive structure is improved but still not perfect.
Ullmark gives us a .910 sv%, I think that's reasonably conservative,
Korpisalo plays the other 32 games, against lesser opposition, and improves to a .895 sv% (up from .890). That's due to a combination of better Defense and lesser opposition.

Now, using the same number of shots against, what would that mean?

As a team, last year we allowed 271 goals against a goalie, on 2442 shots against, a .888 sv%.
With the the above assumptions, we'd allow 232 goals, and have a .904 sv%. That's 39 fewer goals against,

Even if Ullmark only has a .900 sv% and Korpisalo repeats his .890 sv% we end up shaving off almost 20 goals.

We allowed 281 GA last year. You think we're gonna go from bottom 5 to top 10 in GA with a .910 sv% starter and a .895 sv% backup? I can't even really find a tandem in the league with numbers in that approx. range that were a) playoff teams or b) in the top 10 of teams for goals against.

 

[Icelevel]

A high end goalie is going to command a high contract.
Where would you place Ullmark on this list ( see below)
Personally, I would rank him above 5 and 6 for sure.

1 Sergei Bobrovsky	Florida Panthers	$10 million
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	Tampa Bay Lightning	$9.5 million
3	Connor Hellebuyck	Winnipeg Jets	$8.5 million
4	Ilya Sorokin	New York Islanders	$8.25 million
5	John Gibson	Anaheim Ducks	$6.4 million
T-6	Jordan Binnington	St. Louis Blues	$6 million
T-6	Jacob Markstrom	Calgary Flames	$6 million

Imo you can consider paying top $$ like that once the goaltender has playoff success or extremely high elite promise.
6.5 is fair for Ullmark I think.

 

[CallSaul]

Derick Brassard just said the other day when he retired that the team needs more of a veteran presence. He said that Giroux isn't enough veteran leadership.

So I disagree, I think the team does need some vets to help teach and mentor these young players on how to become proper pros.

They don't even really need guys to "teach" young players.

They just need more players who are going to be consistent, day-to-day professionals. Especially in 3rd and 4th line roles.

It may be a double standard, but teams are willing to deal with some inconsistency from high skilled players (see: Drake Batherson), because the upside when they're "on" is very high.

But nobody wants to wonder "What level of effort am I going to get from my 3rd line RW or 4th line C today? Will they be engaged, or will the coast around?"

Honestly, Kastelic was a dead man walking after he got chewed out by Alfredsson on the bench in that Arizona game. Especially since he didn't do much of anything after. And Joseph wasn't any better down the stretch.

We allowed 281 GA last year. You think we're gonna go from bottom 5 to top 10 in GA with a .910 sv% starter and a .895 sv% backup? I can't even really find a tandem in the league with numbers in that approx. range that were a) playoff teams or b) in the top 10 of teams for goals against.

The hope would be that with a) less games b) less pressure and c) lower competition Korpisalo (or Forsberg) could get back to being .900-.905SV% goalies.

In Vancouver last year, Demko put up a .918 SV% in 51 games. DeSmith had a .896 in 29 games. They made the playoffs and gave up the 6th fewest goals in the league.

 

[Icelevel]

They don't even really need guys to "teach" young players.

They just need more players who are going to be consistent, day-to-day professionals. Especially in 3rd and 4th line roles.

It may be a double standard, but teams are willing to deal with some inconsistency from high skilled players (see: Drake Batherson), because the upside when they're "on" is very high.

But nobody wants to wonder "What level of effort am I going to get from my 3rd line RW or 4th line C today? Will they be engaged, or will the coast around?"

Honestly, Kastelic was a dead man walking after he got chewed out by Alfredsson on the bench in that Arizona game. Especially since he didn't do much of anything after. And Joseph wasn't any better down the stretch.



The hope would be that with a) less games b) less pressure and c) lower competition Korpisalo (or Forsberg) could get back to being .900-.905SV% goalies.

Kastelic was very good after that. And we have no one else like him.
Don’t know why people are so down on this young player with potential.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Isles need wingers more than C’s.

Joseph for Cizikas?

 

[BondraTime]

You don't think the team needs good PKers, good forecheckers and defensively responsible players in our bottom six?

Tanev is better than Joseph. He's not "at best equal". I bet that if you polled GMs around the league and asked them who'd they rather have on their team next season, Mathieu Joseph or Brandon Tanev, 100% would pick Tanev. It wouldn't be close.

There's a reason why he's picked to represent Canada at events like the WC while Joseph isn't even on the radar.

I think that is among the last things we need help with, and by far the easiest to find and fix. Pinto, Giroux, Kelly, Grieg are all quite good on the PK, Joseph is obviously one of our best but he's likely gone. Finding guys to fill out a bottom 6 isn't a very difficult job

I have no doubt most teams would pick Tanev, and I also have no doubt switching each guy would have a small discernable difference

I mean, each guy has played at 1 World Championship for Canada, neither one is usually on the radar

Tanev is a bargaining chip for his brother, and he can play in a 4th line role and jump onto a PK. That's what you're getting from him. And he's perfectly fine in the role and would do well in it.

No different than when we brought a guy like Motte in, would likely play the same role with ~the same type of impact. ~13 minutes a game including PK. Tanev is a 450 game guy in the league, he's not Gary Roberts.

You'd know what you're getting, a solid 13 minute a night guy on your 4th who can PK. I don't think that would be a difficult task to find for Staios.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

They don't even really need guys to "teach" young players.

They just need more players who are going to be consistent, day-to-day professionals. Especially in 3rd and 4th line roles.

It may be a double standard, but teams are willing to deal with some inconsistency from high skilled players (see: Drake Batherson), because the upside when they're "on" is very high.

But nobody wants to wonder "What level of effort am I going to get from my 3rd line RW or 4th line C today? Will they be engaged, or will the coast around?"

Honestly, Kastelic was a dead man walking after he got chewed out by Alfredsson on the bench in that Arizona game. Especially since he didn't do much of anything after. And Joseph wasn't any better down the stretch.



The hope would be that with a) less games b) less pressure and c) lower competition Korpisalo (or Forsberg) could get back to being .900-.905SV% goalies.

They need both. You don't think Crosby learned anything from playing with Lemieux? Barkov playing with Jagr? Hell even when Karlsson was breaking out for us, we had Gonchar and Phillips who had been in the league for years that I'm sure Karlsson was able to pick up a few things from.

 

[CallSaul]

Kastelic was very good after that. And we have no one else like him.
Don’t know why people are so down on this young player with potential.

He's slow, isn't physical despite his size, is hit or miss on effort, and contributes nothing offensively.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I think that is among the last things we need help with, and by far the easiest to find and fix. Pinto, Giroux, Kelly, Grieg are all quite good on the PK, Joseph is obviously one of our best but he's likely gone. Finding guys to fill out a bottom 6 isn't a very difficult job

I have no doubt most teams would pick Tanev, and I also have no doubt switching each guy would have a small discernable difference

I mean, each guy has played at 1 World Championship for Canada, neither one is usually on the radar

Tanev is a bargaining chip for his brother, and he can play in a 4th line role and jump onto a PK. That's what you're getting from him. And he's perfectly fine in the role and would do well in it.

No different than when we brought a guy like Motte in, would likely play the same role with ~the same type of impact. ~13 minutes a game including PK. Tanev is a 450 game guy in the league, he's not Gary Roberts

There's a big difference between guys who can play in the bottom 6, and guys who make a difference in the bottom 6. The teams that win in the playoffs have players that make a difference, not just can hang there. Getting players that make a difference in your bottom 6 is not easy, because every team wants those guys.

 

[CallSaul]

They need both. You don't think Crosby learned anything from playing with Lemieux? Barkov playing with Jagr? Hell even when Karlsson was breaking out for us, we had Gonchar and Phillips who had been in the league for years that I'm sure Karlsson was able to pick up a few things from.

Sure, but guys like Tanev (both brothers) are not Lemieux or Jagr, and those types of veterans are not the ones we're looking to bring in (or are even available).

There's a big difference between guys who can play in the bottom 6, and guys who make a difference in the bottom 6. The teams that win in the playoffs have players that make a difference, not just can hang there. Getting players that make a difference in your bottom 6 is not easy, because every team wants those guys.

Getting guys in our bottom 6 who could simply cancel out the other team's bottom 6 would be an improvement over what we've had the last several years.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Sure, but guys like Tanev (both brothers) are not Lemieux or Jagr, and those types of veterans are not the ones we're looking to bring in (or are even available).

How is Tanev any different than a Gonchar or a Phillips? Chris Tanev is arguably the best shutdown dman of his generation. You're really underestimating how much a team can benefit from having older pros that can pass on their knowledge and serve as good role models in the room can be.

 

[CallSaul]

How is Tanev any different than a Gonchar or a Phillips? Chris Tanev is arguably the best shutdown dman of his generation. You're really underestimating how much a team can benefit from having older pros that can pass on their knowledge and serve as good role models in the room can be.

I really like Tanev and hope he signs here, but holy what kind of claim is this?

You'd know what you're getting, a solid 13 minute a night guy on your 4th who can PK. I don't think that would be a difficult task to find for Staios.

Right, but from what it sounds like, he's not confident that he could get that from Mathieu Joseph. Which is probably why he's looking to move on from him and bring someone else in, whether it ends up being Brandon Tanev or another player.

 

[Icelevel]

He's slow, isn't physical despite his size, is hit or miss on effort, and contributes nothing offensively.

It what I saw last 15-20 games. Since Katchouk showed up?
Not smart to move him.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I really like Tanev and hope he signs here, but holy what kind of claim is this?

This is not a bizarre claim to anyone who's been following Tanev for years. He's been a premier shutdown dman in the league since his Vancouver days. His reputation is that of an elite shutdown defenseman.

 

[bicboi64]

Ullmark at $7 million aav is a bit much considering how we need capspace. If he'd take $6 million aav for 6 years, I'd prefer that. That extra $1 million is going to come clutch when we buy out Korpisalo.

Whether its Chychrun or the 25th overall, I hope we can add something Boston considers worthwhile (whether its Branny, JBD, a couple of our 4ths), to offload Forsberg as well. No to taking back Peeke, we can't afford to gamble on him right now. We could've earlier on in the rebuild, but we need someone established and having someone like JBD on the bottom pairing isn't the end of the world.

 

[CallSaul]

This is not a bizarre claim to anyone who's been following Tanev for years. He's been a premier shutdown dman in the league since his Vancouver days. His reputation is that of an elite shutdown defenseman.

I mean, he's been a really good top-4 guy. But I wouldn't say one of best shutdown defensman of his generation (a generation that includes guys like Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Jacob Slavin, Ryan McDonogh, Shea Weber, etc).

He's like a pre-injury Jake Muzzin type guy. Really good, and someone you'd love on your team. If he's your #3, you're in good shape.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Joseph is overvalued in this thread.

Which is not me saying that I don't like his skillset, or don't want him as a player. Posters seem to evaluate him based on his peak performance, rather than his average performance. If it is true that they are having to "find a taker" for him, that tells you he's overvalued here, when some posters were talking about a first round pick for him.

This isn't 2021 either, where a player like Bjorkstrand gets moved for a 3rd because there is no cap flexibility league wide.

Who are these posters that thought Sens would get a first for Joseph, I haven’t seen it.

Ullmark at $7 million aav is a bit much considering how we need capspace. If he'd take $6 million aav for 6 years, I'd prefer that. That extra $1 million is going to come clutch when we buy out Korpisalo.

Whether its Chychrun or the 25th overall, I hope we can add something Boston considers worthwhile (whether its Branny, JBD, a couple of our 4ths), to offload Forsberg as well. No to taking back Peeke, we can't afford to gamble on him right now. We could've earlier on in the rebuild, but we need someone established and having someone like JBD on the bottom pairing isn't the end of the world.

Retaining 1.35 million is twice as cheap as buying him out. Not seeing a buyout happening.

 

[Micklebot]

We allowed 281 GA last year. You think we're gonna go from bottom 5 to top 10 in GA with a .910 sv% starter and a .895 sv% backup? I can't even really find a tandem in the league with numbers in that approx. range that were a) playoff teams or b) in the top 10 of teams for goals against.

Well, it doesn't really matter what I think, I'm stating what would happen given the assumptions I proposed.

As for other teams. Toronto had Woll with .907 and Samsonov at .890 (and Martin Jones at .902)
Tampa had Vasilevski at .900 and Johansen at .890
Carolina had Kochetkov at .911 and Raanta at .872
Washington had Lindgren at .911 and Kuemper at .890
Vancouver had Demko at .918 and DeSmith at .895

Also, I'm talking about goals scored on a goalie, not total goals. The 10 EN goals aren't going to be impacted by who we pulled.

Now, maybe we allow more goals on EN's because we're actually in more games and it makes sense to pull our goalie more often? we were bottom 10 in the league in TOI with the goalie pulled, so EN goals could go up, but that's a reflection of us being in more games and we were still top 10 in GA/60 with the net empty so even if we went up in EN TOI by 50% (which would have us 3rd in the the league) it would only mean 5 or 6 more goals against.

232 GA a goalie would rank us 15th in the league last year in goals against a Goalie, up from 28th. That's still a significant jump to be sure, but there's a significant difference between Korpisalo and Ullmark playing 50 games

So, here's the real question, which of my assumptions were unreasonable, and what do you feel would be more reasonable? We can adjust them based on what you think is reasonable. Ullmark had better sv% numbers on a pretty bad Buffalo team, now granted, sv% in general has dropped a touch, but his last two years in Buffalo were at a .916 sv% so .910 seems plausible with us imo but drop it to .905 and we still see a 27 goal drop and that's with no lower QOC bump for Korpisalo.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I mean, he's been a really good top-4 guy. But I wouldn't say one of best shutdown defensman of his generation (a generation that includes guys like Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Jacob Slavin, Ryan McDonogh, Shea Weber, etc).

He's like a pre-injury Jake Muzzin type guy. Really good, and someone you'd love on your team. If he's your #3, you're in good shape.

I think you're selling him a bit short, but even a veteran #3 who plays 20 minutes a night can be an excellent mentor to the young men on our team. Chabot and Sanderson could learn a lot from a guy like that.

 

[BondraTime]

I really like Tanev and hope he signs here, but holy what kind of claim is this?



Right, but from what it sounds like, he's not confident that he could get that from Mathieu Joseph. Which is probably why he's looking to move on from him and bring someone else in, whether it ends up being Brandon Tanev or another player.

Can bring in a load of players for that role, absolutely

I'm not disputing bringing in a guy for that role, I'm disputing that we need to bring in a guy like Tanev for that role because of an intangible benifit of making the team play the right way.

I'm perfectly fine moving Joseph, I don't think Tanev is an upgrade, but that's a personal opinion

If we are able to move Joseph's 3 million, the last thing I'd want to do is trade for and spend that much needed space + more on a guy we have on the 4th line

He's Chris Tanev's brother, that is the predominant factor

 

[Micklebot]

Can bring in a load of players for that role, absolutely

I'm not disputing bringing in a guy for that role, I'm disputing that we need to bring in a guy like Tanev for that role because of an intangible benifit of making the team play the right way.

I'm perfectly fine moving Joseph, I don't think Tanev is an upgrade, but that's a personal opinion

If we are able to move Joseph's 3 million, the last thing I'd want to do is trade for and spend that much needed space + more on a guy we have on the 4th line

He's Chris Tanev's brother, that is the predominant factor

I think Tanev is pretty similar in quality to Joseph, but brings a different dimension. Lateral move, but sometimes lateral moves have benefits that go beyond the one player.

I'm not all in on Tanev, but I wouldn't be against it either.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Kastelic was very good after that. And we have no one else like him.
Don’t know why people are so down on this young player with potential.

Yeah that was a weird comment.
I thought he looked like a different player after Alfie let him have it.
If he can play like that the full year he’s a valuable 4th liner.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Can bring in a load of players for that role, absolutely

I'm not disputing bringing in a guy for that role, I'm disputing that we need to bring in a guy like Tanev for that role because of an intangible benifit of making the team play the right way.

I'm perfectly fine moving Joseph, I don't think Tanev is an upgrade, but that's a personal opinion

If we are able to move Joseph's 3 million, the last thing I'd want to do is trade for and spend that much needed space + more on a guy we have on the 4th line

He's Chris Tanev's brother, that is the predominant factor

I agree that Brandon Tanev is more of a target because he is a selling point to bring in Chris and less so because he'll be a tremendous upgrade on Joseph, but I also doubt they trade for Brandon Tanev until they know Chris is going to be signing for them. It seems like a thing they'll work at in parallel to negotiating with Chris and will try to time it so they can pull the trigger on both moves around the same time. All Chris has to know is Ottawa has a deal ready to go to bring in his brother as soon as he signs his contract.

 

[CallSaul]

I think Tanev is pretty similar in quality to Joseph, but brings a different dimension. Lateral move, but sometimes lateral moves have benefits that go beyond the one player.

I'm not all in on Tanev, but I wouldn't be against it either.

Jeff O'Neill says it all the time (moreso about the Leafs) when pushing back against the "you shouldn't make trades for the sake of making trades" narrative.

Sometimes you just need different. Different guys, different faces, different vibes. Different can be better for no other reason than being different.

It sounds like Staios is committed to having a different makeup in the room next year, and that probably means 4-5 new faces.

It sounds like one will be Ullmark, another could be B. Tanev...