Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Cosmix]

Who do we need to implement a large culture change. 3-4 players coming in.

We do not need old declining vets on high salary retirement contracts.

A previously experienced and successful coaching staff would help immensely.

Who should be traded away to change the "culture"? Any playboys?

 

[yazmybaby]

I’m not on board with paying 7M AAV to Ullmark.

How awesome a pivot would it be to send 7 to Philly along with Korpisalo for Cal Petterson +12 + 31/32

then send Chychrun + 25 + 31/32 to Nashville for Saros extended at 8 x 7 or 7 x 8.

Out 7OA + 25OA + Chychrun + Korpisalo (dump)

In 12 OA + 1 year of Petersson buried at 3.8M + Saros extended.

A high end goalie is going to command a high contract.
Where would you place Ullmark on this list ( see below)
Personally, I would rank him above 5 and 6 for sure.

1 Sergei Bobrovsky	Florida Panthers	$10 million
2	Andrei Vasilevskiy	Tampa Bay Lightning	$9.5 million
3	Connor Hellebuyck	Winnipeg Jets	$8.5 million
4	Ilya Sorokin	New York Islanders	$8.25 million
5	John Gibson	Anaheim Ducks	$6.4 million
T-6	Jordan Binnington	St. Louis Blues	$6 million
T-6	Jacob Markstrom	Calgary Flames	$6 million

 

[GCK]

We do not need old declining vets on high salary retirement contracts.

A previously experienced and successful coaching staff would help immensely.

Who should be traded away to change the "culture"? Any playboys?

This core needs to be surrounded by guys go about there business the right way. The Brady, Stu, Sanderson, Batherson, Pinto, Norris, Greig group can’t be surrounded by Kastelic, Kubalik, Joseph, Chychrun, etc… We need guys who come to compete hard in practice, games, training, etc….

We are teetering on the edge of having to blow it up and restart around Stu and Sanderson.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Joseph is part of the party frat boy bffs clique and is the easiest to move.

Even though his play doesn't justify to be moved it's probably just for a wake up call to the core.

 

[guyzeur]

We need an high end goalie now (and a few upgrade here and there) while we have this core. If not we might as well to blow it up again.

Joseph is part of the party frat boy bffs clique and is the easiest to move.

Even though his play doesn't justify to be moved it's probably just for a wake up call to the core.

The last coach was mostly responsible with that frat boy bffs clique.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

We need an high end goalie now (and a few upgrade here and there) while we have this core. If not we might as well to blow it up again.


The last coach was mostly responsible with that frat boy bffs clique.

Players themselves were most responsible for their own actions. Just like everyone is.

 

[PlayOn]

We do not need old declining vets on high salary retirement contracts.

A previously experienced and successful coaching staff would help immensely.

Who should be traded away to change the "culture"? Any playboys?

Every team that wins has old declining vets.

Bringing in the Tanev brothers helps Ottawa shift the culture now, and in Chris’ case, gives Ottawa time to find/develop a RD.

Eventually the core transitions into being the vets on the team, and in 3-4 years you add more youth.

 

[GCK]

Players themselves were most responsible for their own actions. Just like everyone is.

We usually disagree but you are bang on. Accountability starts with yourself, then teammates and then the coaching staff. Peer pressure is real.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Joseph is part of the party frat boy bffs clique and is the easiest to move.

Even though his play doesn't justify to be moved it's probably just for a wake up call to the core.

He was being shopped a year ago. I don't think they got that supposed wake-up call.

 

[BondraTime]

Lot's of ways to change a culture, a coach is the main one. Green is going to significantly change the culture, that's why he was brought in. The guys we have are able to do it, they were just coddled for the entireity of the rebuild by a players coach who legitimately just let them run wild,

Compensating for how bad the team has been becuase they don't have an old enough crew of vets is a great way to be disapointed down the road

 

[h2]

Joseph doesn't strike me as the type of player that will do anything to win. He's too inconsistent for a bottom 6 guy as well.

Trade the frat boy. The 3m would be better used elsewhere.

 

[BankStreetParade]

The league has changed. Only 3 goalies played 60 or more games last year: Saros (64), Georgiev (63) and Hellebyuck (60).

Even big money guys don’t play what they used to. Bob played 58, Sorokin 56, Shesterkin 55.

I think the goal would be to have Ullmark play 50-55. So we’ll need 30 from a backup.

It’s unlikely he hits 60.

There's 7 guys with a $6M+ AAV who, as a group, averaged 54 GP. That doesn't take into account reduced GS due to injuries. The guy we're looking at putting in started 39 games last year. Even if the league has changed, it hasn't changed so much that you can pay a guy that much and not get around 55-60 GS out of him. If he's at 50 GS, who's playing the other 32? There's not that much cap to go around for us this year and it's not clear who will be playing those games. 32 games is A LOT of points to leave in the balance on the shoulders of unreliable goaltending.

Korpse 20, Soogy 10

You feel good about that backup situation? How many points do you think we're likely to get out of those 30 games?

Valid concern. Similar level of unknown as Korpisalo (career high 39gp) and Murray before him (career high 50gp).

But I wonder if 55-60 is required. The league has trended away from workhorses and towards tandems.

Ullmark at 50ish games and Korpisalo at 30ish games as a tandem could work very well in theory - the problem being the bottom heavy allocation of cap to goaltending. Korpisalo is at 4m, and Ullmark would come at the 6-8m range, so we could see a 10-12m annual cap spend on goaltending here if brass pulls the trigger on Ullmark and retains Korpisalo.

That said, the Panthers have made the finals in back to back years with a 14.5m goaltending spend, which they are presumably running back next year as well. Yes, they capitalize on their tax free jurisdiction to improve slotting elsewhere, but 14.5m is substantial.

So it wouldn't be unprecedented to see those two as a tandem if Ullmark does indeed come to Ottawa.

As I wrote above, there's 7 guys who make $6M+ AAV and they averaged 54GP, which doesn't take injury into account. At the rumoured AAV, 55-60GP seems to certainly be required. And his track record doesn't really give us any indication of whether he can do it or not. He started 39 games last year - that's a long ways away from the 55-60 range. It just seems when you add up all the variables that he might not be the right guy to go for. There's the cost to acquire, there's the percentage of cap to allocate to him, there's the consideration of who plays 30ish games behind him, there's the expected performance taking on a workload he's simply never had before...I could live with one of those variables being uncertain but when you add up the totality it seems impossible to get your head around it.

 

[Micklebot]

My biggest concern with Ullmark is how many games he can start in a season. Career high is 49. Apart from that, he has 2 seasons at 40 and 41. That's just...not enough games as a starter. If we give him the kind of term and money he wants, he needs to be closer to 55-60 GS. Can he sustain his play with that kind of workload?

If he only starts 50 games next year, who plays the other 32? That's a significant amount of the schedule and it's a huge question mark.

Well, he did win a vezina when he played 49, so it doesn't appear as though he's a goalie that can't handle the workload,

So, Ullmark takes say 50 games, leaving 32 for presumably Korpisalo,

So, Lets make some assumptions:


We bring in a top 4 RHD, defensive structure is improved but still not perfect.
Ullmark gives us a .910 sv%, I think that's reasonably conservative,
Korpisalo plays the other 32 games, against lesser opposition, and improves to a .895 sv% (up from .890). That's due to a combination of better Defense and lesser opposition.

Now, using the same number of shots against, what would that mean?

As a team, last year we allowed 271 goals against a goalie, on 2442 shots against, a .888 sv%.
With the the above assumptions, we'd allow 232 goals, and have a .904 sv%. That's 39 fewer goals against,

Even if Ullmark only has a .900 sv% and Korpisalo repeats his .890 sv% we end up shaving off almost 20 goals.

 

[Alex1234]

Joseph is part of the party frat boy bffs clique and is the easiest to move.

Even though his play doesn't justify to be moved it's probably just for a wake up call to the core.

They sure love to lose hockey games and party
7 years in the making
Nice little bunch of pu..ies
Time for some big changes for sure

 

[Gil Gunderson]

It's going to be hilarious when we add "Vets to change the cultutre" and the team plays the exact same

I mean, if the vets are good (like Tanev and a good goalie) the team could improve, but it won't be because we got rid of Joseph's supposed frat boy lifestyle or whatever.

 

[Cosmix]

He was being shopped a year ago. I don't think they got that supposed wake-up call.

Applying some accountability would do nicely; bench the lazy, irresponsible, uncoachable players and/or trade them if they do not perform as coached. Trading a 3rd or 4th liner does not send much of a message to the core players.

 

[scallionjj11]

They sure love to lose hockey games and party
7 years in the making
Nice little bunch of pu..ies
Time for some big changes for sure

omg alex!

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Joseph is overvalued in this thread.

Which is not me saying that I don't like his skillset, or don't want him as a player. Posters seem to evaluate him based on his peak performance, rather than his average performance. If it is true that they are having to "find a taker" for him, that tells you he's overvalued here, when some posters were talking about a first round pick for him.

This isn't 2021 either, where a player like Bjorkstrand gets moved for a 3rd because there is no cap flexibility league wide.

 

[Alex1234]

omg alex!

Im exagerating but also tired of losing
They are so far away from teams like Florida, Edm, Dallas , Tampa etc

 

[BondraTime]

I mean, if the vets are good (like Tanev and a good goalie) the team could improve, but it won't be because we got rid of Joseph's supposed frat boy lifestyle or whatever.

Get good players, absolutely

Going out of your way to shape your team with trades for redundant players because they are vets or have the "play the right way" aura has a very high chance of backfiring.

I'm absolutely in the boat that's fine with moving Joseph. Replacing his salary with a more expensive, and likely at best equal player in Tanev because he plays the right way is an awful redistribution of that money IMO

 

[PlayOn]

Lot's of ways to change a culture, a coach is the main one. Green is going to significantly change the culture, that's why he was brought in. The guys we have are able to do it, they were just coddled for the entireity of the rebuild by a players coach who legitimately just let them run wild,

Compensating for how bad the team has been becuase they don't have an old enough crew of vets is a great way to be disapointed down the road

Sens couldn’t take hold of their emotions last year which is a youth thing. It’s beyond just culture. Even Sanderson called them out for it saying we gotta stop slamming sticks and keep our body language positive.

Not like you need to go add 8 vets, but I do think they need guys who have been around for awhile and don’t get so caught up in the highs and lows. If you give up a goal, having players that can go settle things down for you helps too.

 

[CallSaul]

I mean, if the vets are good (like Tanev and a good goalie) the team could improve, but it won't be because we got rid of Joseph's supposed frat boy lifestyle or whatever.

I don't think anyone is saying it would be "the" thing that improves the team.

Regardless of the reasons, it seems like management doesn't like him here, and are trying to move on from him.

The team has sucked for a long time. Outside a couple of short stretches, Joseph has also sucked.

We should embrace change, however small it is.

I find it funny how defensive some fans (moreso on Twitter) are of players like Joseph, Brannstrom, Kastelic, and even minor leaguers like Sokolov. It's very weird.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Joseph is overvalued in this thread.

Which is not me saying that I don't like his skillset, or don't want him as a player. Posters seem to evaluate him based on his peak performance, rather than his average performance. If it is true that they are having to "find a taker" for him, that tells you he's overvalued here, when some posters were talking about a first round pick for him.

This isn't 2021 either, where a player like Bjorkstrand gets moved for a 3rd because there is no cap flexibility league wide.

What's Joseph's average performance? A great speedy defensive 3rd liner who can put up 30+ points and PK? That's perfect for his contract.

Anyway, it's pretty moot at this point since he's like 90% gone.

 

[CallSaul]

Get good players, absolutely

Going out of your way to shape your team with trades for redundant players because they are vets or have the "play the right way" aura has a very high chance of backfiring.

I'm absolutely in the boat that's fine with moving Joseph. Replacing his salary with a more expensive, and likely at best equal player in Tanev because he plays the right way is an awful redistribution of that money IMO

You don't think the team needs good PKers, good forecheckers and defensively responsible players in our bottom six?

Tanev is better than Joseph. He's not "at best equal". I bet that if you polled GMs around the league and asked them who'd they rather have on their team next season, Mathieu Joseph or Brandon Tanev, 100% would pick Tanev. It wouldn't be close.

There's a reason why he's picked to represent Canada at events like the WC while Joseph isn't even on the radar.

What's Joseph's average performance? A great speedy defensive 3rd liner who can put up 30+ points and PK? That's perfect for his contract.

Anyway, it's pretty moot at this point since he's like 90% gone.

He's speedy, yes, but he avoids contact, tends to take shifts, and full games, off, and has very poor awareness in his own end. He's not "great defensively". Not even close, really.

He's good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone, I'll give him that.

 

[The Waffler]

You feel good about that backup situation? How many points do you think we're likely to get out of those 30 games?

This is not my preference, but my guess. I can’t see anyone taking on that Korpisalo contract. I can only hope that Korpi improves at least a little bit (It’s almost statistically impossible to do worse). Of course there’s injuries etc to account for so that’s where Soogard comes in. They’ll probably have a better showing if the Defense is addressed.

My guess is they can muster up 30-35 points between them. If Ullmark can get 30 wins in 52 games, that gives them a 90-95 point pace which is certainly feasible.