TheDoldrums
Registered User
People keep saying that health is a big detractor for Freddie as if Mrazek hasn't been dealing with major injury issues in each season he was with the Canes.
Also, goalies tend to bounce back when they play for the Canes. Each of Mrazek, McIlhenny, Reimer, and heck, even Forsberg in his short stint, came in as 'hot garbage' only to put up pretty respectable numbers here. I wouldn't bet against Freddie having a similar bounce back year.
The difference is Andersen's health might be a permanent problem that he can't recover from. When Andersen got to the Leafs they ran him into the ground. 66, 66, 60 games started in his full seasons there with significantly more shots faced than any other goalie in the league over that time.
Shots faced from 16-17 to 18-19
1. Andersen - 6221
2. Hellebuyck - 5671
3. Bobrovsky - 5603
While most teams were leaning more towards tandems and extra rest for the starter, the Leafs were going the opposite way.
I've used this comparison before but it might be like a running back in football, teams will feed them a ton of carries for a few years, their bodies get worn down and they never recover their form. Andersen's SV% with the Leafs went from insanely consistent to precipitously falling in his last two years there (.918, .918, .917, .909, .895).
Conversely Mrazek might be unavailable more often for minor injuries but I think he's a better bet to provide an average performance when he's in the net going forward.