Value of: Framework of a Auston Matthews trade?

[Golden_Jet]

Problem is leafs are in a catch 22, can’t sign before July 1, July 1 NMC kicks in.

Marner NMC also July 1
Nylander M-NTC also July 1

 

[Stimpythecat]

If he goes to the Kings, it will hopefully only be as an UFA. The Kings don't have the cap space in 2023-2024 and a trade would gut the prospect pool. The Kings have traded the last 2 first round picks already so I want them to hold onto this next one in 2024 to keep a continuous stream of prospects in the system.

If he doesn't re-sign, Matthews is an UFA just as Kopitar's $10 million cap hit expires. That 8th year he could sign if traded doesn't matter if he only wants a 5 year deal.

Waiting also gives time to see what's up with any wrist injury.


Clarke is a non starter. He is Doughty's replacement and the Kings don't have anyone else to fill that role.

 

[ck26]

I thought it went without saying that any deal this big comes with an extension.....

The value of AM34's first 3 years is extreme: you get 4 goals in his first pro game at a cost of an ELC.

The value of AM34's next couple years is very good: he's $11m, but he's a darn good use of that $11m.

The value of "you have to negotiate your own extension" is far less, because you're paying UFA prices for that extension. If Shanahan did the Coyotes a solid, got Matthews extended 8 years at $5m per, f*** yes, I'm interested in moving premium young player(s) to get me some of that. But you're not offering that. You're offering Matthews's last year at $11m + a chance to bid for him at $12m+

"A chance to bid for him at $12m+" isn't worth anything CLOSE to the laundry list of high-value assets in the OP. "A chance to bid for him" has fairly low value (negotiating rights of an impending UFA are often dealt after the season ends for, like, a 6th). "Oh, but you get a season of Matthews ..." doesn't matter because the Coyotes are coming out of a rebuild, not trying to contend today, and his presence / absence changes very little for one season.

No your assumptions are awful. Any team trading for Matthews will ask to speak with his agent before handing over assets. Try to deal in reality not your own head.

You're posting on an internet message board, arguing with a Coyotes fan you've never met (and probably will never meet), one who is using 10 minutes of a day off work to drink and reply somewhat-thoughtfully (see above) and somewhat sarcastically (see this) on an internet message board about what some athlete (whom neither of us has ever met) may do in the future and what we'd kinda like our teams to do if we were in charge.

Neither of us is dealing "in reality."

It would be pretty crazy if Matthews decided to not extend with anyone until July 1, 2024. What a media frenzy it would be if he’s not extended by training camp.

I'mma Take My Talents To Scottsdale ...

Lol. I love how people just throw that in. You know it’s not an automatic thing. And the details of the extension are incredibly important. As a Montreal fan I pass. His agent and contract don’t fit the rebuild. Especially at the acquisition cost

QFT.

 

[Qwijibo]

Of course it comes with an extension

Lol. I love how people just throw that in. You know it’s not an automatic thing. And the details of the extension are incredibly important. As a Montreal fan I pass. His age and contract don’t fit the rebuild. Especially at the acquisition cost

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Lol. I love how people just throw that in. You know it’s not an automatic thing. And the details of the extension are incredibly important. As a Montreal fan I pass. His agent and contract don’t fit the rebuild. Especially at the acquisition cost

If Leafs look to trade him other teams will ask to speak to his agent (Permission)

And while an actual agreement can't be made before summer, the talks will give teams ability to gauge if he will sign with them and likely cost.

The CBA allows other team (If granted permission) to have preliminary talks. And if Leafs refuse to give team permission it will turn away teams and make situation more difficult potentially for Leafs

 

[Rec T]

A place that seems like a good landing spot is Anaheim.

They have Zegras, Terry, Mintukov, Drysdale etc...I think Matthws would re-sign there but obviously Anaheim would need to know ahead.

Zegras-Matthews-Terry would be a fun line to watch.

Something with Henrique and 2nd overall for Matthews is a good starting point.

Go down in this forum, find the "Marner to Anaheim" thread, read it, anyplace it says 'Marner' substitute in 'Matthews', come to realize why this make absolutely no sense for the Ducks.

 

[Docgonzo]

The only way I see LA trading for Matthews is if it gets known he only wants to sign in LA and then they send a smaller package for him. I can’t see LA trading what needs to be traded when they have holes and cap issues elsewhere.

Signing him as a ufa would be the only way. They’d get 2 more off-seasons to try and unload contracts and add pieces. Plus Peterson buyout next season is a lot easier to deal with.

 

[JTeller97]

If Matthews ends up in LA it will be through free agency. You don't gut a team and its future for what will be the highest paid player in the league, who to this point has failed to show up when the games matter the most.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

If Matthews ends up in LA it will be through free agency. You don't gut a team and its future for what will be the highest paid player in the league, who to this point has failed to show up when the games matter the most.

Gutting team and its future?

Kings actually have several good prospects being blocked right now from NHL because they wont shed some of the current roster

 

[therocket9]

Not getting anything of big value for Matthews unless he agrees to an extension with his new team which he most likely won't do probably wants to test the market....he most likely walks for free same as Tavares did.

 

[Peat]

If Leafs look to trade him other teams will ask to speak to his agent (Permission)

And while an actual agreement can't be made before summer, the talks will give teams ability to gauge if he will sign with them and likely cost.

The CBA allows other team (If granted permission) to have preliminary talks. And if Leafs refuse to give team permission it will turn away teams and make situation more difficult potentially for Leafs

Letting teams speak to Matthews agent and negotiate an extension not only potentially sours their relationship with Matthews should the potential trade break down, it also gives him an effective NMC and who knows how that goes. They might will be better off trading him to the highest bidder who thinks they can convince him to sign rather than to the highest bidder on a short list of teams that know they have Toronto over a barrel.

Or might not. Hard to say. It shouldn't be assumed Toronto are automatically going that route, and if they do, you can probably assume a number of teams will be moved from the bidding very quickly.

 

[NVious]

The problem is despite recent performance,Matthews is a top tier elite player. Ovie, Crosby or McDavid, Mathews level.

Toronto's goal in a draft pick would be a Austin Mathews....there are not many of those. Even if Bedard was offered you are looking at proven NHL player vs prospective.

I think the Leafs do what it takes to keep him no matter what....there are an awful lot of Mathews Jerseys in Toronto as well. If Matthews gets traded or signs elsewhere Leafs fans are gonna make Montreal fans look like amateur hour and they would be right in doing so.

You don't trade or not re-sign an elite player .....at all costs you build everything around them.

Do we have any indication Matthews wants out of Toronto? I doubt he does because he kind of holds the cards on his next contract amount there.

Joe Thornton was traded and Boston won a cup.

Sometimes you need to shake up the team to get anywhere, if someone puts forth a great offer, the Leafs should take it especially if Matthews doesn't sign.

Yeah Matthews is great, but is he worth 13+ million or can we get some young cost controlled players and use the 13 elsewhere?

The real problem with Matthews is he wants top end dollars, but can't perform like McDavid or Mack in the playoffs and the season means absolutely nothing in Toronto.

The Leafs gave him nearly a decade to try and do something in the playoffs, he failed. Not like Crosby or Ovie where they had deep runs, the team has ONE 2nd round game win in 7 years, inexcusable.

 

[kinghock]

Here is framework for you

To
C Austin Matthews (50% retained on this coming year by Hawks)
W Mike Hardman (Just contract dump from Hawks, could be cheap #13 F or play in AHL)

To
C Quinton Byfield
W Adrian Kempe
D Sean Durzi
Kings 2025 2nd (Becomes 1st if Kings make it to WCF next season)

To
G Cal Petersen (2 x $5M)
D Sean Walker (1 x $2.65M)
C Alex Turcotte
Kings 2024 1st

Kings land Matthews at 50% for coming year while signing him to extension this summer and unload Petersen/Walker allowing them to sign Gavrikov while also either bringing back Korpisalo or looking for another option in goal to be #1 via FA/Trade

Leafs get a goal scoring winger (35 + 41 goals the last 2 seasons) signed at nice value for next 3 years, Young NHL C in Byfield, A young NHL RD in Durzi and a pick in 2025 draft that has potential to become 1st round pick

Hawks eat 50% of Matthews cost this year while taking on Petersen + Walker contracts. As compensation they get 2024 1st + Turcotte who gets his chance as Hawks #2C this coming year to prove if he can finally get his career going after all the injuries.

This trade with Toronto will not make Kings better playoff team.
Matthews proved many times for number of years that he is not difference maker during playoff time
Matthews with possible 13-15 million contract will drive LA from trade for him.
Toronto knows that he is not a good value for 13-15 million, but the rest of the league know this as well.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I'm sure the Hawks would love that but this is the stumbling block, teams either don't have the cap, don't have the assets or don't want to blow up a team/rebuild. The market for any $10m+ player not named McDavid will be limited.

Not if you have contracts headed the other way. It’s actually an easy solution.

Most teams have some top 6 assets along with drafts picks and prospects.

the Rangers were disappointed with their playoff showing. Why not Zibanejad and K’Andre Miller plus a first round pick?

 

[jkutswings]

I don't see a single trade partner that has the roster players that Toronto wants. The Leafs still want to win now, which I would assume would include either a 1C or a great 2C going to Toronto.

I'd think that a 3-team deal would make more sense, with a good center going to Toronto, a team looking to ship out said center and rebuild receiving the bulk of the picks, and a team ready to open their window dealing a boatload of assets to get Matthews.

Would any of the following be willing to blow it up and send a center to Toronto in exchange for a third team's draft picks?

CGY
NYI
PIT
STL
VAN
WAS
WPG

 

[Channelcat]

His value hinges on getting him signed. Leafs would need to work with Auston on this. Personally, I suspect that he plays out the deal then walks.

 

[Markster]

I don't know exactly what a Matthews trade would look like, except that it will almost certainly be for significantly less than Leafs fans are hoping.

 

[slappipappi]

Not if you have contracts headed the other way. It’s actually an easy solution.

Most teams have some top 6 assets along with drafts picks and prospects.

the Rangers were disappointed with their playoff showing. Why not Zibanejad and K’Andre Miller plus a first round pick?

HAHAHAHA

 

[Space umpire]

Matthews isn’t an ordinary rental. Keep in mind the team acquiring him will probably want to free up cap space and that means shipping contracts the other way. If you get more than one bidder for Matthews, which you will certainly have, then you can drive up the ask.

Think about Matthews in Chicago playing with Bedard in year 1 of a rebuild. I’m not sure the Hawks could resist that.

Los Angeles would be another prime destination… and they have assets to trade.

Matthews would be fine in year 1 of the rebuild since many think Chicago won’t make the playoffs in year 1.
I think Leaf fans have been spoiled by their playoff failures for so long that they don’t realize regular season numbers mean little if you’re invisible when the games mean the most.

I don't know exactly what a Matthews trade would look like, except that it will almost certainly be for significantly less than Leafs fans are hoping.

True

 

[RoadWarrior]

HAHAHAHA

K’Andre Miller isn’t signed.

 

[FSL KINGS]

40 goal Kempe signed for less than 6 isn't getting traded.

I'd look at Eichel as a comparable.

 

[thegilz]

LA makes way too much sense for AM34.

If it’s a sign and trade and Matthews has an extension in the ballpark of $12x7 basis could be as follows:

Toronto Re-Tool package:
Byfield
2024 1st
2025 1st
Grans
Arvidsson (to make money work, trade piece at deadline)
Turcotte (reclamation project with high upside)

Toronto still trying to win package:
Byfield
Kempe
2024 1st
Durzi

TORONTO doesn't have much say on this. AM34 already has his mind setup for where he would like to end up and if the rumors are true and he wants to come West, the Kings are on top of that list, followed by Las Vegas and if all else fails, Anaheim. No other team in the league will give up so much assets for a RENTAL. Sorry to say but I can see Toronto having to receive at most a late 1st Round and possible 2nds, or 3rds and a prospect or two. Los Angeles will not give up anymore 1st Round picks. I can see see the KINGS, gamble and try their luck in FA if of course AM34 doesn't sign an extension. But Byfield and Kempe will not be part of any deal. Thr Leafs will give in to a deadline deal, cause ita better to get something rather than nothing.

 

[trellaine201]

Ya the Leafs wont get enough ONLY because he would be a one year rental There gonna need AM to play nice and unfortunately there is much in it for him. Ultimately he has the leverage.

 

[go4hockey]

LA should have no interest in trading for AM. The only thing that makes sense for LA is if they can get him as a UFA and keep all of our depth If we have to move a bunch of pieces then we won’t have enough to be competitive. If he gets traded elsewhere and signs with that team that’s fine but I would not be interested in a trade if I was running the show.

 

[go4hockey]

Extended Matthews for:
Byfield
Clarke
2024 (unprotected) first.

No chance LA would do that.