GDT: Florida @ Ottberia 7pm TSN5

[Agent Zub]

Team needs a heart transplant.

Revamp the culture.

But how do you even do that?

Alfredsson, Giroux, Martin should have been enough.

 

[bert]

It's not about whether Brady should or shouldn't fight in general...or how he approaches the game in general.

We're talking about the Florida Panthers game. So I'm talking about how Brady plays against the Florida Panthers.

He plays like he's scared of his brother.

In what other game will the other team have a skilled rat taking their shots at his teammates where Brady refuses to do anything about it?

It's weird.

It's exceptionally weird how people have accepted the excuse of what his mom said as a reasonable reason not to put his brother in his place.

It's a very soft way of thinking.

What are you talking about lol. He always gets into it with them. This is a made up narrative that is not close to resembling reality.

I swear people make up scenarios in their heads at times around here. It was quite easy to see who didnt show up last night and it was most of the D core.

 

[JD1]

So... is it the same old, same old, or is it a marked improvement?

You asked the question, but wrt our record

Oct to 12 Jan 14-23-0, .378 pts%, 29th in the league.
13 Jan to present, 19-15-4, .553 pts%, 16th in the league.

Results based business, seems the results have changed, even if there are still games that are reminiscent of the first half.

Advanced stats, like any stats in pretty much any forum require a sufficient sample. The bigger the sample, the smaller the margin of error. a sample of 1 will have a very large margin of error,

That said, I'm not really sure what you posted, Natural statrick had the game at 47.92 CF%, 48 SF%, 39.53 SCF%, 27.78 HDCF%, and 36.32 xGF% 5v5, that matches my eye test. The only time we generated anything was on the early powerplays.

I posted natural stat trick data. All situations. Intentionally.

The results really haven't changed. We started poorly. Put ourselves out of it. Played better once we were out of it. Still don't track well. And we're getting worse at being prepared to play and giving up that all important first goal.

 

[bicboi64]

What are you talking about lol. He always gets into it with them. This is a made up narrative that is not close to resembling reality.

When's the last time he went after one of their rats (Bennett, Lomberg, Cousins, etc.,?) or star (Reinhart, Barkov, etc.,)?

 

[Micklebot]

What are you talking about lol. He always gets into it with them. This is a made up narrative that is not close to resembling reality.

I swear people make up scenarios in their heads at times around here. It was quite easy to see who didnt show up last night and it was most of the D core.

I think some people want him to be a rat and take runs at star players, he plays heavy on everyone, but doesn't typically take runs at guys. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[bicboi64]

I think some people want him to be a rat and take runs at star players, he plays heavy on everyone, but doesn't typically take runs at guys. Nothing wrong with that.

Speaking only for myself, I like how Brady doesn't cross the line.

Having said that, I'd love it if he crossed that line against other teams rats that have already done something dirty against us.

Only exception is Marchand or Wilson. He can headshot those guys preemptively and I'll be fine with it.

 

[bert]

Name any other teams they've done this to this season and I'll post the head-to-head stats.

I watched them live do this to Colorado. Smoked them, forechecked them into oblivion if you watched the playoffs last year they ran every D core out of the rink until they got to Vegas who is built to handle a heavy forcheck. If you want to completely ignore the obvious results go for it. Ottawa has the softest D core in the league this is a worst case scenario matchup. Making up a fictional scenario to feel better about the reality of this team is being built horribly have at it. Ill deal with the real results and the large sample size.

Chychrun didnt want contact first shift of the game. Boom in the net. Thats why they lost. Not because Brady didnt fight Matt Tkachuk.

When's the last time he went after one of their rats (Bennett, Lomberg, Cousins, etc.,?) or star (Reinhart, Barkov, etc.,)?

Why dont you ask why Chychurn fished for a puck when he could have hammered Matt first shift?

 

[Micklebot]

I posted natural stat trick data. All situations. Intentionally.

The results really haven't changed. We started poorly. Put ourselves out of it. Played better once we were out of it. Still don't track well. And we're getting worse at being prepared to play and giving up that all important first goal.

Ok, so to summarize, the problem with advanced stats is when you take an insufficient sample, the actually results and expected results wont match due to the margin error, and looking at all situations without actually stating you're doing so can give a misleading representation of a game that saw one team get 10x the PP time (which is far less likely to happen in larger samples) and make appear that they were relatively evenly matched when in fact one team was significantly better for 46 mins out of 60 while the other was given a man advantage for the majority of the remainder?

Idk, seems like the problem is how you tried to use and present them. I don't think anybody who took an honest look at the full set of stats from that game would have come to the conclusion you presented as problematic and I don't think in a large sample, you'd get the anomalies that led to that misleading conclusion just using all situation data.

 

[bicboi64]

Why dont you ask why Chychurn fished for a puck when he could have hammered Matt first shift?

I absolutely do.

I was iffy on keeping Chychrun, but now want him gone. He could've physically tied up MTkachuk on one of his assists or jumped in and used some of the muscle he apparently has from the weird meats he eats, but he didn't cuz he's soft as a pillow.

Chychrun wasn't acquired by the team because he's a unicorn physical deterrent for rats though now is he? He never did that on Arizona, but its a perfectly valid expectation from our captain who supposedly will lead us into war.

 

[JD1]

Ok, so to summarize, the problem with advanced stats is when you take an insufficient sample, the actually results and expected results wont match due to the margin error, and looking at all situations without actually stating you're doing so can give a misleading representation of a game that saw one team get 10x the PP time (which is far less likely to happen in larger samples) and make appear that they were relatively evenly matched when in fact one team was significantly better for 46 mins out of 60 while the other was given a man advantage for the majority of the remainder?

Idk, seems like the problem is how you tried to use and present them. I don't think anybody who took an honest look at the full set of stats from that game would have come to the conclusion you presented as problematic and I don't think in a large sample, you'd get the anomalies that led to that misleading conclusion just using all situation data.

That's great and all but I did it intentionally

 

[Micklebot]

That's great and all but I did it intentionally

So intentionally misleading, great job.

 

[JD1]

So intentionally misleading, great job.

A better response would have been to ask why

 

[h2owned]

I went to the last Florida game they lost 5-0.
Went last night and said they can't do any worse.
I've now had the pleasure of watching Florida outscore them 11-0 over 2 games.
Team is 2-9 in games I've attended this year!

0 for 6 on the PP was pretty brutal. Florida showed what a real dangerous PP looks like

 

[Very Stable Genius]

I went to the last Florida game they lost 5-0.
Went last night and said they can't do any worse.
I've now had the pleasure of watching Florida outscore them 11-0 over 2 games.
Team is 2-9 in games I've attended this year!

0 for 6 on the PP was pretty brutal. Florida showed what a real dangerous PP looks like

Plz go to remaining games.

 

[Micklebot]

A better response would have been to ask why

I'm not convinced it would have been.

 

[jbeck5]

Even if its not a fight, go give him a bone crunching hit. What use is it being top 5 in hits if you won't even use that to your own advantage against your brother who ragdolls us.

Or go after one of the Panthers stars. If MTkachuk wants to be a rat, get down to his status and give Barkov or Reinhart a huge hit. Brady doesn't even have to fight, just show some balls in a way that matters aka, not going after irrelevant players on the opposing team.

Yeah exactly. Do something to change the outcome of the game while there is still time left to make that shift.

Brady loves trying to take on the other bench in the last minute of a blow out.

Stop doing that, but go lay out the star when it's only 2-0 in the first and we have lots of time to shift momentum and actually come back in the game.

What are you talking about lol. He always gets into it with them. This is a made up narrative that is not close to resembling reality.

I swear people make up scenarios in their heads at times around here. It was quite easy to see who didnt show up last night and it was most of the D core.

Gets into it with "them"? I'm talking about his brother.

He never gets into it with him.

Go look at the last game where there was a mini brawl at center ice after the period. Brady literally ignored Matthew who was going at our goalie to go after someone else who wasn't doing much.

Can you name me one other team where Brady would skate around the rat who's smacking our goalie at center ice to go grab someone else?

Makes no sense.



Here, look at the 1:35ish mark of the video. It all starts with Matthew Tkachuk and korpisalo going at it...you see Matthew Tkachuk in korpisalos face.

You see Brady Tkachuk trying to get at literally any Florida Panthers EXCEPT Matthew Tkachuk at the 1:55 mark, who was the guy in our goalies face who started this scrum. Why is Highmore doing more to Matthew than Brady?

Brady actually literally skates around Matthew to go shove another Florida skater who never got near our goalie.

I don't know how you don't notice this weirdness with Brady purposely straying away from Matthew.


I've also seen Brady in perfect position to lay down the boom on Matthew but he curls away and then looks for a big hit on Matthews teammate. Why? Why not just finish your big hit on your brother??

 

[bicboi64]

Plz go to remaining games.

He's our only hope at Celebrini

 

[WallyD]

This is what I don't get; he fights and people complain, he doesn't fight and people complain.

It's tough to criticize one of the only guys on the team willing to lift a finger, so don't take my comment that way. I love that Brady fights, gets physical, agitates. That is sorely lacking on this very soft team. What is important to realize though is that it is not whether you fight or not, it's whether you are being smart about it. Too often Brady fights when it is way too late, the game is out of reach. That comes off more like a temper tantrum than being strategic about it. Fighting when the game is over or getting kicked out in the last couple minutes really doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things. What the hell good is "sending a message" when you could have done that earlier in the game and perhaps changed the outcome?

 

[Micklebot]

It's tough to criticize one of the only guys on the team willing to lift a finger, so don't take my comment that way. I love that Brady fights, gets physical, agitates. That is sorely lacking on this very soft team. What is important to realize though is that it is not whether you fight or not, it's whether you are being smart about it. Too often Brady fights when it is way too late, the game is out of reach. That comes off more like a temper tantrum than being strategic about it. Fighting when the game is over or getting kicked out in the last couple minutes really doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things. What the hell good is "sending a message" when you could have done that earlier in the game and perhaps changed the outcome?

When he gets into fights earlier in the game people complain that we can't afford him to be off the ice for 5 mins when were trying to play catchup because he's a game changer, we need him on the ice, he literally can't win.

I'm not saying he's always making the best decisions, or that he doesn't occasionally lose his cool, but I don't think people have reasonable expectations either. He's a physical power forward, not an enforcer, he's not there to go after rats, he's not Chris neil on the 4th line who we can afford to lose for 5 and a 10 min misconduct, he's there to play a heavy game, and make plays. The fact that he can and does stand up for his teammates is a bonus.

 

[jbeck5]

Compare how Brady Tkachuk treats Matthew Tkachuk with how Chris Neil treats Tanner Glass.

 

[WallyD]

When he gets into fights earlier in the game people complain that we can't afford him to be off the ice for 5 mins when were trying to play catchup because he's a game changer, we need him on the ice, he literally can't win.

I'm not saying he's always making the best decisions, or that he doesn't occasionally lose his cool, but I don't think people have reasonable expectations either. He's a physical power forward, not an enforcer, he's not there to go after rats, he's not Chris neil on the 4th line who we can afford to lose for 5 and a 10 min misconduct, he's there to play a heavy game, and make plays. The fact that he can and does stand up for his teammates is a bonus.

I don't disagree. Typically your 3rd-4th line crap-disturber guys SHOULD be taking the lead on that front. Your power forward captain should not be forced to do all that himself.

As for Brady fighting earlier in the game, I don't care what some people think. Some think there should be no fighting at all in the game. The only point I will agree with there is that there should be no staged fights by goons whose only role is to do that. With earlier game fights you have to be smart about it (again), about how you engage. If you want (need) to start something up to change the game tempo, be damned sure you are not running around like an idiot or taking an instigator penalty. Physical play and fighting is a tool like any others and must be used smartly to your team's advantage. A last point... Brady should not be trading himself for lesser 4th-liners that are no threat. Has to share time in the box with meaningful players, not just some random nobody he is pissed at. Again, if some opponent takes a cheap shot at of your stars, then ideally your 3rd-4th liners should be first up to do the retribution job, not your line-1 captain.

 

[jbeck5]

I watched them live do this to Colorado. Smoked them, forechecked them into oblivion if you watched the playoffs last year they ran every D core out of the rink until they got to Vegas who is built to handle a heavy forcheck. If you want to completely ignore the obvious results go for it. Ottawa has the softest D core in the league this is a worst case scenario matchup. Making up a fictional scenario to feel better about the reality of this team is being built horribly have at it. Ill deal with the real results and the large sample size.

Chychrun didnt want contact first shift of the game. Boom in the net. Thats why they lost. Not because Brady didnt fight Matt Tkachuk.


Why dont you ask why Chychurn fished for a puck when he could have hammered Matt first shift?

I don't think it's chychrun OR Brady.

Why didn't they BOTH do more physically?

At least Brady does usually. I just find he has this weird thing with his brother where he won't put him in his place physically.

Other than that, I love tkachuks physicality.


Chychrun is never physical and it always irritates me.

Guy is like 220lbs, super jacked, eats bloody raw meat, deep gladiator voice...but is charmin soft.

 

[bicboi64]

I don't disagree. Typically your 3rd-4th line crap-disturber guys SHOULD be taking the lead on that front. Your power forward captain should not be forced to do all that himself.

As for Brady fighting earlier in the game, I don't care what some people think. Some think there should be no fighting at all in the game. The only point I will agree with there is that there should be no staged fights by goons whose only role is to do that. With earlier game fights you have to be smart about it (again), about how you engage. If you want (need) to start something up to change the game tempo, be damned sure you are not running around like an idiot or taking an instigator penalty. Physical play and fighting is a tool like any others and must be used smartly to your team's advantage. A last point... Brady should not be trading himself for lesser 4th-liners that are no threat. Has to share time in the box with meaningful players, not just some random nobody he is pissed at. Again, if some opponent takes a cheap shot at of your stars, then ideally your 3rd-4th liners should be first up to do the retribution job, not your line-1 captain.

I agree with everything you post.

Only thing I'd add is from my perspective, is Brady's role as an enforcer. I don't want him to be a strict enforcer always stepping it up. But I'd like him to be able to answer the bell in an intelligent way that shows awareness of the game (which depends on whether we're losing, our stars are getting cheap shots, etc.,). Kinda like Iginla for CGY who would drop the gloves to whoops players that took cheapshots at his teammates.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I don't think Brady necessarily needs to fight his brother. I'm sure it's a very weird dynamic to do so. He should at least be physical with him. Throw a hit. Nudge him. Get under his skin. Compete against him. I think that would lay the friendly fire criticism off of Brady a bit.

 

[aragorn]

Goaltending again let them down right off the bat in both the first & second period. They also got pushed around with very little push back, that has to change.

What are you talking about lol. He always gets into it with them. This is a made up narrative that is not close to resembling reality.

I swear people make up scenarios in their heads at times around here. It was quite easy to see who didnt show up last night and it was most of the D core.

Tkachuk is the one guy that shows up game in & game out, they asked him not to fight so much this yr so he could concentrate on offence more & it has paid off with 33 goals, but nobody else on this team is showing up when it gets rough out there. This is why they have to move on from several players & get Kleven & Ostapchuk in the lineup two big guys who will drop them once they get comfortable in the league & make this team harder to play against. They could use two more guys off the UFA free agency market (D/F) this summer who are also much tougher & MacEwan should be in this lineup instead of guys like Semjkal, Kubalik or even Kelly. They need to get rid of some of the soft players on this team who don't contribute enough offensively.