First Impressions of St. Louis

[aufheben]

It's not just the MSL draft picks that bother me, it's them combined with Clowe and Nash, and just the whole philosophy of it spending picks every year like they are expendable. I hate it, and I think it's a shortsighted way to run a franchise. Plus we didn't just lose the picks for MSL, we could have also got picks in return for Callahan.

Sather took a risk on Nash to put that '11-12 team over the top, it didn't work, so he changed the direction he wanted the team to go, and has already gone all in again. He's playing with fire by trading all our picks away, and I would be not surprised in the least to see him conveniently leave just as his recklessness reaps what it has sown.

We got hosed value-wise in a trade where we had all the leverage. Draft picks aren't completely random, teams pick who they think is the best player for their franchise. I'll take our chances with that draft pick becoming Dubinsky over our chances of winning a Cup with MSL. The fact that some draft picks bust isn't a reason to trade them, it's a reason to keep as many as possible. Obviously it's more/less of an issue for other teams depending on how good they are currently, and how well set up they are for the future.

It's kind of sad really; the homegrown Black & Blueshirts era seems like the blink of an eye all of the sudden.

Don't get me wrong though, I'd love nothing more than for St. Louis to tear it up for his time as a Ranger.

 

[Cake or Death]

I think some of you are really overstating how valuable a late 1st round pick is. I'm all for protecting picks but the chances of a late 1st turning into a star is very small. Here are the results of picks made in 20-30, by draft between 2006-2008.

2006: 1 star (Giroux). 1 very good goalie (Varlamov). 2 regular NHLers in Foligno and Berglund. 6 guys who didn't/haven't panned out (Sanguenetti, Irving, Persson, Summers, Fischer, Vishnevskiy).

2007: 1 really good forward (Pacioretty). 1 good forward (Perron). 5 with around 100 NHL games or less (Jim O'Brien, Riley Nash, Michael Backund, Brendan Smith, Jon Blum). 3 busts (Patrick White, Nick Ross, Nick Petrecki)

2008: 2 very good players (Eberle, Carlson). 3 regular NHLers (Michael Del Zotto, Mattias Tedenby, Tyler Ennis). 6 busts (Tikhonov, Nemisz, Cuma, McCollum, Gustaffson, Leveille)

Totals: 5 good players/stars. 10 regular NHLers. 15 busts.

We traded away a player that's 50% likely to bust, 33% likely to be a decent player, and 17% likely to be a good/great player.

Would this be a bad deal if we traded away Nick Petrecki? Tikhonov?

Legit post. Actually a writer (pretty sure on TSN) did a seriously in-depth breakdown of 10 consecutive seasons of drafts, looking at the percentage of players who ended up playing over 100 NHL games and where those guys ended up. His analysis statistically showed that the 15th-30th rd 1 draft picks had a 51% chance to become 3rd or 4th liners or 2nd, 3rd D pairing, and have a 5% chance to become line 1 or 2 forwards or top pairing D. And in a 10 season span there were 'deep' drafts there too. Results I observed, if you don't draft very very high, it's a total crap shoot after that. Scout well, because your 4th round pick didn't have much worse odds than a late first round pick.

 

[aufheben]

Legit post. Actually a writer (pretty sure on TSN) did a seriously in-depth breakdown of 10 consecutive seasons of drafts, looking at the percentage of players who ended up playing over 100 NHL games and where those guys ended up. His analysis statistically showed that the 15th-30th rd 1 draft picks had a 51% chance to become 3rd or 4th liners or 2nd, 3rd D pairing, and have a 5% chance to become line 1 or 2 forwards or top pairing D. And in a 10 season span there were 'deep' drafts there too. Results I observed, if you don't draft very very high, it's a total crap shoot after that. Scout well, because your 4th round pick didn't have much worse odds than a late first round pick.

IMO, this is a reason to keep (and add) draft picks, not spend them like monopoly money. Again though, it's the philosophy of it that bothers me more than anything. Also, just finishing high doesn't necessarily mean we can't draft high; maybe we trade Cally for assets, then flip that with our 1st rounder to move up.

 

[SA16]

IMO, this is a reason to keep (and add) draft picks, not spend them like monopoly money.

How does this make any sense. He posted data from an article showing it's highly unlikely to get a good player from a late first and it's rather likely to get a bust or 3rd/4th liner. You would rather trade away picks if they were more valuable than less or something? If anything this is a reason to trade down in the draft and trade players like Boyle and such and stack up on late round picks.

 

[aufheben]

How does this make any sense. He posted data from an article showing it's highly unlikely to get a good player from a late first and it's rather likely to get a bust or 3rd/4th liner. You would rather trade away picks if they were more valuable than less or something? If anything this is a reason to trade down in the draft and trade players like Boyle and such and stack up on late round picks.

No, I'm saying since no draft pick is 100% certain, it's better to have more than less.

 

[SA16]

No, I'm saying since no draft pick is 100% certain, it's better to have more than less.

And I'm saying if the true value of a late first is closer to that of a late round pick than the perceived value of a late first the correct strategy would be to constantly trade that pick whether it be for players or for multiple picks later in the draft.

 

[aufheben]

And I'm saying if the true value of a late first is closer to that of a late round pick than the perceived value of a late first the correct strategy would be to constantly trade that pick whether it be for players or for multiple picks later in the draft.

Likewise they could package lower picks to move up into the top 15. Does that stat account for teams that are better at drafting than others?

 

[Thirty One]

Bite ALL THE SNAKES

 

[slipknottin]

Bite ALL THE SNAKES

I would be ok with snake bitten. But he doesn't even get shots on net.

 

[Harry99]

We could have signed him in 16~ months anyway. You're supposed to trade UFAs for assets, not with them. Absolutely assbackwards.

Absolutely correct. I can't believe how many people loved (and still love) this trade. It's mindboggling. It was to me when it was first made, and now that I've had a dozen or so games of watching MSL, it's unbelievable. Brian Boyle does more to help the Rangers win games than does MSL. Meanwhile, the city of Tampa Bay, the TB players and coaches are all in love with Callahan. He is already the heart and soul of their team. Unreal. Do people understand that this is real hockey, not fantasy?

 

[Harry99]

I would be ok with snake bitten. But he doesn't even get shots on net.

He can't even get away with kicking the puck in. Pathetic.

 

[Cake or Death]

No, I'm saying since no draft pick is 100% certain, it's better to have more than less.

Agree. Because it can be such a crap shoot, more is definitely better than less. While picks beyond the top 10 have a rapidly lower chance of amounting to anything, if you stock picks you never know when you'll find that gem in the rough or that decent player you drafted in round three who bloomed later. More picks is never a bad thing. On a guy like St Louis, who came to us at a PPG pace this season, and keeps in excellent shape and on a very good contract, I take the chance. On a Clowe rental, I absolutely do not.

 

[Harry99]

How does this make any sense. He posted data from an article showing it's highly unlikely to get a good player from a late first and it's rather likely to get a bust or 3rd/4th liner. You would rather trade away picks if they were more valuable than less or something? If anything this is a reason to trade down in the draft and trade players like Boyle and such and stack up on late round picks.

Boyle outplays MSL every night. He sacrifices everything every shift to win. Guys like Nash, Richards and MSL seem to pick and choose when they want to try. That attitude is more damaging to a team than anything. Unless you're playing fantasy hockey.

 

[OverTheCap]

That's part of the problem, the Rangers aren't recouping the picks they are losing or stockpiling picks in later rounds. It's a lot easier to stomach losing a 1st rounder if you have 8 or 9 picks in the draft. Instead, the Rangers had 5 picks in 2013 and will probably have only 5 picks this year as well.

 

[Harry99]

I'm not sure why you felt the need to accuse me of deliberately misrepresenting your position and then say you are assuming I'm not doing that. Thank you for that bit of consideration and the passive aggressive reply.

I don't totally disagree with your position as the day before the trade i posted perhaps the best thing to do is nothing. I have conceded numerous times that this deal could turn out to be a disaster. I've also asked you direct questions that you choose to ignore because they kill your argument. I get it, I understand that you can't budge at this point. Its unfair to pick this one deal and say its a failure if the rangers dont win a cup as I've explained to you numerous times. It doesn't help either of us to look at this one deal in a vacuum. Its flat out not fair to the players on the roster. The rangers were in a position both in the standings and in the upward swing of the franchise as a whole to make this deal......if you disagree you disagree but that doesn't make you right.

No offense but its ridiculous to extend your win a cup or its a failure position to this one deal. Either thats your position on everything or its hypocrisy.

My opinion was that this trade didn't make us better this season, when you consider everything. Throwing in high draft picks was Pejorative Slured. The smart move was to play the season out with Callahan or trade him for younger cheaper players/picks. Sather did the worst thing possible.

 

[Cassano]

Yikes, this is pretty much the worst start imaginable for MSL. He's not only not scoring or producing points, but the Rangers are getting outshot at an alarming rate when he's on the ice.

At least he's not injured.

 

[Harry99]

Based on what? And what is he going to do beyond his 39 years?

Judging from what I've seen, absolutely nothing except collect a paycheck.

 

[Harry99]

There ya go.

It's a difficult situation. No question. I'm not making any excuses for Sather. He's made some moves that were great, others that were terrible.

I'm not surprised with how this one has worked out so far. The expectations on St. Louis are HUGE. Let's not kid ourselves here. Everyone sees acquiring MSL as a total win now situation. He replaced a fan fave in New York. The Captain. He's feeling the pressure. Maybe for the first time in a long time and it shows. He's gotta really perform at his peak and help take the Rangers to a cup....or his whole career ends on a very sour note.

No pressure monsieur. Anyone thinks this is easy for him or the room is being delusional.

For Callahan the pressure is all off now. He's free of New York. Gets to play a support role as a highly respected veteran on a smaller market team with a much higher profile star. If the Bolt's fail, it ain't on Cally. This summer he gets to sign with the highest bidder or make the deal most appealing to him and his family.

Nice work if you can get it. I think he made a very smart play because I'm becoming more convinced he did not want to stay.

Wow, that's some serious rationalizing. The fact is that Callahan is already a leader for TB, scoring, hitting, leading by eample - everything he did for the Rangers. MSL is a shell of his former self. He looks every bit his 38 years old. The 4th line contributes more than him every single game. Stevie Y ***** Sather and we will pay the price. Luckily McDonagh, Girardi and the 4th line have helped the Rangers win because Sather's big deals have done **** - Nash, Richards, MSL.

 

[Harry99]

When MSL has a PPG in the playoffs, a lot of people are gonna look stupid.

If he has closer to .5 than a PPG, i'll eat all of the crow in the world.

You assume they even make the playoffs. If they have 0G, do you still eat all that crow? Enjoy! Because this may go down as the worst deal in rangers history.

 

[Harry99]

See, you saying that over and over and over and over doesn't make it a fact.

You say if there's no cup, the trade is a failure.

I say, if the assets gained don't do more than the assets lost, the trade is a failure.
Both statements are based in our respective opinions.

Why is your opinion being presented as fact while mine is being discarded? They're both of equal merit. They're both based in subjective evaluations.

Agree with the bold. But it depends on how you measure. MSL will get more pts than RC, but that doesn't mean he makes his team better or win more. The extra 15-20 pts MSL may get doesn't offset everything else RC contributes. TB fans already see that.

 

[slipknottin]

Agree with the bold. But it depends on how you measure. MSL will get more pts than RC, but that doesn't mean he makes his team better or win more. The extra 15-20 pts MSL may get doesn't offset everything else RC contributes. TB fans already see that.

I wouldn't count on Msl getting more points than cally

 

[Un Prophete]

There ya go.

It's a difficult situation. No question. I'm not making any excuses for Sather. He's made some moves that were great, others that were terrible.

I'm not surprised with how this one has worked out so far. The expectations on St. Louis are HUGE. Let's not kid ourselves here. Everyone sees acquiring MSL as a total win now situation. He replaced a fan fave in New York. The Captain. He's feeling the pressure. Maybe for the first time in a long time and it shows. He's gotta really perform at his peak and help take the Rangers to a cup....or his whole career ends on a very sour note.

No pressure monsieur. Anyone thinks this is easy for him or the room is being delusional.

For Callahan the pressure is all off now. He's free of New York. Gets to play a support role as a highly respected veteran on a smaller market team with a much higher profile star. If the Bolt's fail, it ain't on Cally. This summer he gets to sign with the highest bidder or make the deal most appealing to him and his family.

Nice work if you can get it. I think he made a very smart play because I'm becoming more convinced he did not want to stay.

I haven't read through the whole thread, but this is the best thing I've seen to try and explain logically what is happening with MSL. What are Tampa fans saying about this? If he finds himself, this team can do damage in the playoffs.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

The fact Callahan forced the Rangers hand by not signing put the whole trade situation in motion. The only objective way to view the trade is after the season and playoffs, hopefully. And don't be surprised if Callahan resigns with the Rangers next year anyway. By the way you need to look over at least half a season to gauge a trade, and that's short.

I always felt Sather had no intention of resigning Cally.

 

[Leonardo87]

Absolutely correct. I can't believe how many people loved (and still love) this trade. It's mindboggling. It was to me when it was first made, and now that I've had a dozen or so games of watching MSL, it's unbelievable. Brian Boyle does more to help the Rangers win games than does MSL. Meanwhile, the city of Tampa Bay, the TB players and coaches are all in love with Callahan. He is already the heart and soul of their team. Unreal. Do people understand that this is real hockey, not fantasy?

Tampa is loving Callahan because he works hard, sparks the team, and they have earned a point in the last 10 games, and has made their PP and PK better, and has 8 points (4 G , 4 A) in those 10 games.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Likewise they could package lower picks to move up into the top 15. Does that stat account for teams that are better at drafting than others?

There's no way to determine that one team is "better at drafting" than others. It doesn't take any special skill to draft players like Crosby, Malkin, Tavares, Kane etc.

Draft picks are the most overrated commodity on HFBoards.