First Impressions of St. Louis
- Thread starter Kokoschka
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
- Status
That's what I've been saying all along - the risk/reward ratio for this trade is not good. The potential benefits of St Louis and their percentage likelihood of coming to fruition are outweighed by the potential benefits and their likelihood of what we gave up.
Last edited:
haveandare
Registered User
How do you figure? St Louis needs to keep doing what he's been doing for 10+ years. A late first round pick has to overcome odds to make the NHL at all, let alone be a top six forward.
slipknottin
Registered User
A late first?
They gave up a first and a second(which could turn into a first).
Plus they gave up callahan, who could have probably netted them at least a first on his own, possibly a first and a second.
That's 4 early draft picks they gave up for Msl.
Callahan played most of the entire season last year and playoffs with a dislocated shoulder, your point?
The rental market was awful. The return would most likely be a 2nd and change.
What he NEEDS to do and what he IS DOING are two different things.
I do not care what round he was picked in. That has nothing to do with the discussion. The risk/reward that is being pointed out deals with dealing a 29 year old, a first round pick and a second round pick for a 38 year old who will only play a quarter of a season this year. The deal, for the umpteenth time, was NOT done for his upside or how he can help the organization in the future. The deal was done to produce a winner instantly.
He is NOT helping the franchise right now. And, since the trade was done to win NOW, the reward for not winning the Cup will be loss of draft picks.
So it does not matter what he can do or what he should do or what he has done in the past. He was brought here at a very high price to produce and be a difference maker. A win NOW team does not get the luxury of time.
slipknottin
Registered User
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
They have at least two more weeks.
The first rounder he was referencing was the one the Rangers gave up, not St. Louis. St. Louis wasn't drafted.
I think he's trying to remind you that first rounders aren't a guarantee of success, nor is a lack of first rounders a guarantee of no success.
Again:
It would be interesting to know for sure. Considering the returns for Moulson and Vanek, I doubt a first was ever in play.
haveandare
Registered User
Yes. A late first. And a second. Forgot the second, but that first is not going to be early with Hank, McD, Girardi, Nash, Step etc. around.
What return for UFAs from this past deadline makes you think that Callahan would have returned a first by itself, let alone a first and a second?
They gave up a first and a second. Neither pick will be early in either round. I'm not saying it was a great deal, but it's definitely, definitely not 4 early draft picks no matter how you cut it.
Keeping Callahan as a rental would have brought us a first - OUR OWN! Not to mention a second.
haveandare
Registered User
I didn't "decide" it will be a late pick. Using history and logic, I think it's safe to say that it won't be an early one. When was the last time the Rangers' first was truly an early pick? McI at 10 when the team missed the playoffs with a new coach? I don't think that's very likely to happen next year. If you think it is likely, feel free to explain why.
Last edited by a moderator:
I take that and run.
Everytime i think about this trade i get more and more dumbfounded that anyone can think it was a good idea.
I think it's way too early to decide where we will finish next year - not even sure about this year, and it's almost over. A lot can happen in a year. St Louis can figure out how to play hockey again and prove he didn't get too old the day he was traded here, and lead us to the Cup - or he can stay on his current three points every 12 games and be no help at all.
It also has to be mentioned that we've been incredibly lucky injury-wise this season. Amazingly lucky. If we had the same injury story as the Penguins or Red Wings chances are we would be well out of the playoff picture. It's amazing what those two teams have done considering not only how many people they've lost, but also who they've lost.
So yes, it's not out of the question we could be out of the playoffs in a year (2015) that is being considered by all accounts to be the strongest draft class in a long time.
Last edited by a moderator:
haveandare
Registered User
St Louis wasn't drafted. He's arguably the current example of an undrafted player that went on to become a star.
The picks that were traded, which I was talking about, have everything to do with the post I was replying to, though perhaps not with the subject that you're inserting here. The point was that the odds of MSL being successful are smaller than the odds of the picks being successful. I questioned that because MSL is already a nearly PPG NHL player, while any pick has to overcome odds to simply make the NHL in any capacity. MSL has to rediscover some level of play that he previously had for a decade or so. The unknown picks need to make the NHL, stick in the NHL etc etc etc. Which is more likely? It's debatable I guess, but I'd say MSL finding his groove is far more likely.
1) St. Louis is signed through next season. This isn't a rental for just THIS season.
2) The Rangers are 8-3 since the trade. If we are discussing the team being "win now" shouldn't the fact that the team is winning come into the discussion...at some point?
3) No guaranteed the draft picks will turn into anything. Odds are the draft picks won't turn into anything.
4) Thomas Vanek (who is better than Callahan) was traded for a marginal prospect and a 2nd round pick. It's not like teams were falling over themselves for Callahan.
5) The deal was made to help the team this season and next season. Just because you want to pretend that isn't the case doesn't make it true.
6) Odds are St. Louis will start producing. Do you think he forgot how to score since being traded?
7) St. Louis is NOT the first person to get traded and struggle with the Rangers.
8) He was brought here for a high price but the price was fair value. He has a year left on his contract.
9) I've seen you say the Rangers prospect pool is pretty thin (It isn't as some of us have pointed out but whatever) so it stands to reason whoever the Rangers would've picked in the draft would be taken with a grain of salt by you.
10) Will the experience of playoff games help players like McD, Miller, Stepan, Nash, Zuccerello, Brassard, Kreider, etc and thus help the future of the team? Is there value to the Rangers in that experience?
Last edited by a moderator:
haveandare
Registered User
I absolutely agree that it's too early to decide, but I don't think it's too early to talk about what is most likely. Much like you were bringing up the 2015 draft earlier, you can talk about likely scenarios in the future so long as you don't talk about them being certain.
Great point about the relatively easy season NYR has had regarding injuries. That's certainly true.
And yes, you're correct in saying that it's not out of the question, but many aspects of this trade aren't out of the question but also shouldn't be relied upon. It's not out of the question that they recoup some picks. It's not out of the question that MSL scores 90 points next year and then resigns on a reasonable 1 year deal. It's not out of the question that plenty of stuff happens. But, putting whether or something is impossible or not aside, it's far more likely that certain things happen. Regarding the finish to next year, I'd argue that it's far more likely that the pick is 20-30 than 1-10.
You also have to factor in that St Louis is only signed through next season, and a successful draft pick gives you a lot of years at a low cap hit.
And MSL is not a point per game player for the Rangers until he's a point per game player for the Rangers. Doesn't matter what he did before he got here. You'd think this organization would have that ingrained in their brains by now.
Based on our history of fighting for the last playoff spots most every year, the highest probability is that it becomes a 10-20 draft pick - in a very good draft year.
Which has no relevance to what I posted, since it was in respons to a claim that Cally would fetch one or maybe even two firsts in a trade.
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,357
- Status
