First Impressions of St. Louis

[haveandare]

You also have to factor in that St Louis is only signed through next season, and a successful draft pick gives you a lot of years at a low cap hit.

And MSL is not a point per game player for the Rangers until he's a point per game player for the Rangers. Doesn't matter what he did before he got here. You'd think this organization would have that ingrained in their brains by now.

For sure on the low cap hit idea, but that's only a factor after a player has overcome to odds and made the NHL. Not that such a thing is impossible or even unlikely, but there are layers and layers and layers of probability and causation in comparing the two options.

I don't buy the whole idea of people falling off because of what logo is on their sweaters. It's borderline superstition. The Rangers have brought in a lot of stupidly chosen players who ended up failing as most people could have predicted that they would have. It's not some bad juju, it's just bad decision making. Nash worked out fine. Gaborik worked out fine. Brass is producing as much as ever. Recently, when the decision making hasn't been absolutely horrific, people haven't come here and fallen off in a big way.

But you're right that he's not a PPG player here until he's a PPG player here. However, I never argued that he was. I was arguing that it's more likely that someone who has been a PPG player elsewhere for as long as MSL has would come around rather than a first round pick would make a real impact.

Based on our history of fighting for the last playoff spots most every year, the highest probability is that it becomes a 10-20 draft pick - in a very good draft year.

I can agree to that.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=398986

 

[aufheben]

I take that and run.

Everytime i think about this trade i get more and more dumbfounded that anyone can think it was a good idea.

We could have signed him in 16~ months anyway. You're supposed to trade UFAs for assets, not with them. Absolutely assbackwards.

 

[Thirty One]

For sure on the low cap hit idea, but that's only a factor after a player has overcome to odds and made the NHL.

If he doesn't make the NHL, there's no cap-hit. Win-win.

 

[Jersey Girl]

I would be willing to bet lots of dollars the pick will be 20 or lower.

Well we currently have the 12th best winning percentage (just passed the Flyers last night) in the league, which means if the season ended today we'd draft 19th. So I guess you're willing to wager lots of dollars we'll be better next year than this year, a year in which we've been incredibly lucky on the injury front.

You may turn out to be right, and you may turn out to be wrong - but I certainly wouldn't bet my house on it.

 

[True Blue]

They have at least two more weeks.

He was not brought in there for future success.

The first rounder he was referencing was the one the Rangers gave up, not St. Louis. St. Louis wasn't drafted.

I see. Well, that is just one of the many things that, short of a Cup, is making this a bad trade.

I think he's trying to remind you that first rounders aren't a guarantee of success, nor is a lack of first rounders a guarantee of no success.

There are no guarantees on anything, but having more 1st round picks than less is always a good idea.

 

[True Blue]

St Louis wasn't drafted. He's arguably the current example of an undrafted player that went on to become a star.

Good for him. 1st round pick tend to be stars much more often than non-drafted players.

The unknown picks need to make the NHL, stick in the NHL etc etc etc. Which is more likely? It's debatable I guess, but I'd say MSL finding his groove is far more likely.

The debate is not whether or not MSL will ever rediscover his scoring touch. The debate is whether or not this was a worthy trade. It is a worthy trade IF the net gain is a Cup. It was a very poor trade if there is no Cup.

 

[Thirty One]

He was not brought in there for future success.

No? The playoffs are in the future, aren't they?

I see. Well, that is just one of the many things that, short of a Cup, is making this a bad trade.

What is?

There are no guarantees on anything, but having more 1st round picks than less is always a good idea.

Same could be said for elite forwards.

 

[True Blue]

No? The playoffs are in the future, aren't they?

We both know what was meant. When I say future, I do not mean 1.25 years.

What is?

Giving away of draft picks.

Same could be said for elite forwards.

No one is denying that. And that is not the debate.

 

[Thirty One]

We both know what was meant. When I say future, I do not mean 1.25 years. But whatever, play with semantics all you want.

I'm afraid I do not.

When I said: "They have at least two more weeks," referring to the playoffs,
You responded: "He was not brought in there for future success."

So in summary, I have no clue what you're saying.

Giving away of draft picks.

I would never recommend giving away draft picks. Trading them for elite talent though, that I would recommend.

No one is denying that. And that is not the debate. Another fact that you well know.

So in your mind the debate is whether or not, in a vaccuum, it is good to have first round picks?

 

[haveandare]

Good for him. 1st round pick tend to be stars much more often than non-drafted players.

The debate is not whether or not MSL will ever rediscover his scoring touch. The debate is whether or not this was a worthy trade. It is a worthy trade IF the net gain is a Cup. It was a very poor trade if there is no Cup.

For sure on the first point. Go back and read how all that developed. There were some serious miscommunications. I never, ever thought non-drafted players were more likely to be stars than first round picks.

Okay, the debate is whether or not this was a worthy trade.

Here's my thinking:

Will the assets acquired do more for this team than the assets given away?

Will MSL do more for the New York Rangers before he goes somewhere else or retires than Callahan would have done for the rest of this year, and the picks traded away will eventually do down the line?

Now, whether or not MSL will rediscover his touch, and to what degree, is relevant. Say he scores 80 points, for example, for this team over his time here, while not being a liability on d. Solid player, but clearly plays based around offense. What would Callahan have done in that time? What will an unknown first from the 2015 draft do for this franchise over his career?

Obviously, we can't tell the future. We all have to make some assumptions about what we think is more likely than what.

Personally, I don't think it's too insane a thought that MSL will do more for this franchise over his time here than Cally would have done for the rest of this season alone, and whoever is drafted will do. Now, that pick could turn into a Stepan, Dubi, Callahan etc, and they could contribute way more points than MSL does in his time here while being even better. It's possible. Is it probable? I'd say a little bit, but not so much that I'm about to say this trade was a bad one. It's also probable that that pick turns into nobody.

As time goes on, and questions get answered, we'll all be able to judge this trade more easily. For now, we all have to guess at certain points. Some people guess one thing, some people guess another. Everyone is guessing.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Can the advanced stats people at least say if he's driving possession as well as expected? I can't believe how poorly he has produced. So far he has been a lemon.

 

[mcsauer2738]

Here's the way I see it. St. Louis is yet to play his top game and were still doing well. Once he clicks in were going to be even more dangerous. I still like the trade. The 1st rounder kinda hurts but the time is now.

 

[Fanned On It]

Here's the way I see it. St. Louis is yet to play his top game and were still doing well. Once he clicks in were going to be even more dangerous. I still like the trade. The 1st rounder kinda hurts but the time is now.

I really don't think the "time is now", though..

We are absolutely not winning the Stanley Cup this year. Not even a little part of me believes that we have a chance. I would be elated if we made it past the 2nd round.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

I really don't think the "time is now", though..

We are absolutely not winning the Stanley Cup this year. Not even a little part of me believes that we have a chance. I would be elated if we made it past the 2nd round.

I personally think we can make it to the ECF for sure. After that, not sure.

 

[Ail]

He was not brought in there for future success.

I see. Well, that is just one of the many things that, short of a Cup, is making this a bad trade.

There are no guarantees on anything, but having more 1st round picks than less is always a good idea.

You keep saying this garbage about future success. He was brought here for the playoff push and the playoffs should they make it, which they probably will. Neither of those two have ended yet. If you want to hate the trade irrationally okay fine, but stop implying it was bad because he hasn't scored any goals fast enough for your liking.

If first round picks were a guarantee for success no one would ever trade them.

 

[Leonardo87]

I really don't think the "time is now", though..

We are absolutely not winning the Stanley Cup this year. Not even a little part of me believes that we have a chance. I would be elated if we made it past the 2nd round.

Yeah I hear ya, this last winning streak has been good, but it's been mostly against the bubble teams also fighting for a playoff spot. I think the Blues are going to win the cup this season, that team is just stacked right now, and they finally got themselves a strong goaltender.

 

[MisterUnspoken]

Yeah I hear ya, this last winning streak has been good, but it's been mostly against the bubble teams also fighting for a playoff spot. I think the Blues are going to win the cup this season, that team is just stacked right now, and they finally got themselves a strong goaltender.

The Blues? I don't feel like they can get past the Kings if they play them or Anaheim or Chicago (if healthy). The Blues just don't have enough offense to beat those teams despite their early season scoring (which has dropped).

Personally I think San Jose breaks through this year and face the Bruins (hopefully Rangers though) for the Jumbo Joe vs old team matchup.

 

[MisterUnspoken]

You keep saying this garbage about future success. He was brought here for the playoff push and the playoffs should they make it, which they probably will. Neither of those two have ended yet. If you want to hate the trade irrationally okay fine, but stop implying it was bad because he hasn't scored any goals fast enough for your liking.

If first round picks were a guarantee for success no one would ever trade them.

Having been around the team for a long time a lot of people are skeptical of these 'quick fix' moves like bringing in an aging vet to 'win now' - the reason is because it hasn't worked outside of that one time in 1994.

But if you look at that team and this team there are a few major differences and glaring holes in this roster. Mainly a top of his prime centerman and leader (Messier) and the #1D that is imposing and dominant (Leetch). Also the cast of role players on that team were ridiculous. Look at the season Adam Graves had...

I believe thats where most of the skepticism for trading two high rd draft picks comes into play.

 

[Cake or Death]

The Blues? I don't feel like they can get past the Kings if they play them or Anaheim or Chicago (if healthy). The Blues just don't have enough offense to beat those teams despite their early season scoring (which has dropped).

Personally I think San Jose breaks through this year and face the Bruins (hopefully Rangers though) for the Jumbo Joe vs old team matchup.

The Pacific is a nightmare. My good friend is a Kings' fan, and he's rightly annoyed that they'd have to go through Anaheim and San Jose just to get the semi-final round, where they then probably have to play St Louis or Chicago. That's just brutal.

 

[Leonardo87]

The Blues? I don't feel like they can get past the Kings if they play them or Anaheim or Chicago (if healthy). The Blues just don't have enough offense to beat those teams despite their early season scoring (which has dropped).

Personally I think San Jose breaks through this year and face the Bruins (hopefully Rangers though) for the Jumbo Joe vs old team matchup.

I just don't want Boston to win it all. lol

As per Chicago, I don't see them being this threat like last season. Anaheim is dangerous so yeah they might be the winners.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

We both know what was meant. When I say future, I do not mean 1.25 years.

Giving away of draft picks.

No one is denying that. And that is not the debate.

You may not mean 1.25 years but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. That's your fault for incorrectly ignoring that timeframe because it is noteworthy.

To the bold that was a fine counter point and you know it. Also how could you not think it's part of this equation? Why would anyone bemoan the loss of a 1st round pick as an asset and completely ignore what it was used to acquire?

If you feel it wasn't used to acquire an elite forward in MSL that is fine and your opinion. If you feel like too much was given up to get this elite forward fine that is your opinion. But to dismiss that counter point as if it's irrelevant is nonsensical.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

For sure on the first point. Go back and read how all that developed. There were some serious miscommunications. I never, ever thought non-drafted players were more likely to be stars than first round picks.

Okay, the debate is whether or not this was a worthy trade.

Here's my thinking:

Will the assets acquired do more for this team than the assets given away?

Will MSL do more for the New York Rangers before he goes somewhere else or retires than Callahan would have done for the rest of this year, and the picks traded away will eventually do down the line?

Now, whether or not MSL will rediscover his touch, and to what degree, is relevant. Say he scores 80 points, for example, for this team over his time here, while not being a liability on d. Solid player, but clearly plays based around offense. What would Callahan have done in that time? What will an unknown first from the 2015 draft do for this franchise over his career?

Obviously, we can't tell the future. We all have to make some assumptions about what we think is more likely than what.

Personally, I don't think it's too insane a thought that MSL will do more for this franchise over his time here than Cally would have done for the rest of this season alone, and whoever is drafted will do. Now, that pick could turn into a Stepan, Dubi, Callahan etc, and they could contribute way more points than MSL does in his time here while being even better. It's possible. Is it probable? I'd say a little bit, but not so much that I'm about to say this trade was a bad one. It's also probable that that pick turns into nobody.

As time goes on, and questions get answered, we'll all be able to judge this trade more easily. For now, we all have to guess at certain points. Some people guess one thing, some people guess another. Everyone is guessing.

I do legitimately feel MSl is not a good fit on the team and that he was too old. I would have rather traded Cally for a 2nd and I feel we could have gotten more value out of those picks by drafting or by a trade for a C. I also think MSL will start to decline very very soon. But by the time the 14-15 picks make it to the NHL it'll probably be the 2017 or 2018 season. Hank will be halfway or fully into retirement. I have no problem with the team trying to go all in right now with a team of Nash, MSL, Staal, Girardi, McD, Stepan, MSL, MZA, Kreider.

That is a lot of top talent this year and all of next year. We've got a full off season to find a top 6 C to join in. The 4th line has been good. Every single D pair has been good. This team is setup to win now or next year. A LOT of guys will be old by 2017-2018 including Hank. Were all 3 of our picks going to make the NHL? Prob not. Is it really THAT important we have a 2014 1st round pick on the roster in 2018?

Maybe by not having 1st round picks for the past 3 out of 4 years, maybe by not having a few 2nds as well we will get to 2017 with old players and no reinforcements. We'll lose a crap ton and get some really nice high picks. around 2017-2018. Or maybe we'll stay exactly where we have been and still be spinning our wheels around the 4-8 seed 2nd round PO exit. But if we are STILL spinning our wheels in that scenario then it's obvious the picks were meaningless because when we did have our picks the results were almost universal 1st and 2nd round PO exits with one aberration year. How many NYR 1st round picks were on that 2011-2012 team anyway?

Staal, MDZ, Kreider for the PO's only.

Had a few of our own 2nd rounders. Step, artie, Sauer (missed almost the whole year though),

So not counting Sauer we had 5 guys picked from the 1st and 2nd round on the team in that vaunted year and one of the 5 missed the entire regular season. Doesn't make it seem like mid-late 1sts and 2nds are nearly as important as some of you are argueing

 

[Nightshift]

When has this franchise ever followed a draft pick heavy model?

Your answer is never. You can argue his particular moves have not worked, but this isn't a Sather blueprint. Its a NY Rangers Hockey blueprint. They don't call us the Strangers for nothing.

The recent focus on drafting which yielded the Dubinskys and Callahans was out of nothing more then absolute necessity. There were no more players to buy, nothing left to sell or trade for. There was a one way street in front of the franchise with a bricked up wall directly behind them.

 

[True Blue]

I would never recommend giving away draft picks. Trading them for elite talent though, that I would recommend.

Cue the vacuum cleaner. Let's view in a vacuum. Trading draft picks for elite level talent is not a bad thing. Ok. Now let's expand our vision. The organization is bereft of talent on the farm. In 4 years, they will only have one first round pick. You just packaged that with a 29 year old for 1.25 seasons of a 38 year old. Who, let's not forget, just simply decided to take his ball off of the playground and demanded a trade.

In my view that is not a good trade.

So in your mind the debate is whether or not, in a vaccuum, it is good to have first round picks?

The debate is to look at the trade entirely, not in a vacuum and weigh was the risk/reward worth it. The second part of this debate is how you view this trade to be successful. My take, along with other so-called pessimists, is that the SOLE way that this trade is a success is if St. Louis can bring the Cup here this year or next.

So far, the return is rather underwhelming. And since the horizon is only the quarter year of this year and only next year, the luxury of time does not exist.