Speculation: Fire Rob Blake Blow it Up Offseason Thread (update: Robitaille, Blake and Hiller stay)

[bland]

You wouldn't think there would be value in knowing a guy wins 60% of his battles in the east corner of the ozone but only 25% in the west corner of the dzone?



You wouldn't think there would be value, with 5 seconds left, in knowing a guy is winning 3/4 of his faceoffs vs lefties while the guy currently there is winning 20%?

No, not at all, because if the nature of those situations isn't already readily apparent to you then you have no business being a coach.

And teams have their guy to take the key draws regardless of the specifics. You think some dude with a spreadsheet addiction is going to convince your coach to put in anyone other than Kopitar for a late draw? When did that last happen? Maybe Carter back in his day?

It's frosting, it ain't cake.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Exactly. It’s important to get advice from your wife because if she’s in agreement with your decision then you’re probably wrong

“f*** that bitch… this is Russia !”-The machine

 

[johnjm22]

I think analytics overall have made sports better.

The NFL is much more exciting today because coaches started embracing the numbers.

This was one of the best NHL seasons of my life. If the analytics are ruining the NHL, it's kind of hard to tell.

 

[MonkeysUncle]

Not entirely fair

Jesse is a stand up guy. Like the rest of us, he can't picky bash his employer and realize that Rosen couldn't have written this article of he was still a Kings employee. Jesse is giving us the best kings coverage since hockey's future used to have dedicated reporters. I learn more about the prospects from Jesse than I do from any other "media"

And even if Jesse hasn't asked my creative question in a while. I'd still be the Han Solo if he ever attached the death star

the others...
I don't mind Bernstein.
The Mayor is a petulant child.

I am still deciding if Dooley is an actual human or if he is really a robot who is a sleeper terminator ready end humanity when the switch is flipped

I pretty much like listening to them all, I just take each one at face value as I understand that some work for the Kings. It easy for people who aren't being paid by the team to call those people out. I think 99% of people employed would try there best not upset their employer, but still try to bring honest coverage ,like I said I find value in each person who covers the team. Sometimes I do cringe when something is said or spun a certain way, but I just happy to have multiple outlets now on Kings coverage

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

A must read from Rosen

“Getting uncomfortable”? Kings executives are preaching it, not practicing it

Sometimes it’s good to read internet message boards.

t.co

The hero we don’t deserve.

 

[johnjm22]

Basic publicly available analytics could have saved the Kings from the PLD trade.

I think when you evaluate a player you need to actually watch them play. You also need to reference the analytics. If both align, you've probably got the correct read on the player.

Despite what I was told, I'm skeptical of the Kings player evaluations. I don't think analytics weighed heavily on many of their decisions.

I think the Kings acquire players who look good on paper. It doesn't appear to me they're doing their homework.

They wanted PLD because he's 6'4' 224lbs 25YO, plays center, and scores 60pts. That's likely the end of the analysis.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Not entirely fair

Jesse is a stand up guy. Like the rest of us, he can't picky bash his employer and realize that Rosen couldn't have written this article of he was still a Kings employee. Jesse is giving us the best kings coverage since hockey's future used to have dedicated reporters. I learn more about the prospects from Jesse than I do from any other "media"

And even if Jesse hasn't asked my creative question in a while. I'd still be the Han Solo if he ever attached the death star

the others...
I don't mind Bernstein.
The Mayor is a petulant child.

I am still deciding if Dooley is an actual human or if he is really a robot who is a sleeper terminator ready end humanity when the switch is flipped

Agreed. I love all the new content and providers. Especially when you drive all day in la traffic.

I look forward to Russel Morgan’s tweets and Twitter spaces, Bernstein/Hoven’s podcasts, Dooley’s lakingsinsider coverage, Jesse’s articles and All the Kings Men podcast and the fact he interacts with fans here on HF.

Kyle Garcia (Reign) and Austin Stanovich are also good and provide great insight. Eddie Garcia also does his daily/weekly Locked on Kings podcast.

We finally have good coverage in LA and everyone above is pretty approachable in person and fans like us.

Do I agree with everyone’s opinions above? No. But we are all cheering for the same team.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

No, not at all, because if the nature of those situations isn't already readily apparent to you then you have no business being a coach.

And teams have their guy to take the key draws regardless of the specifics. You think some dude with a spreadsheet addiction is going to convince your coach to put in anyone other than Kopitar for a late draw? When did that last happen? Maybe Carter back in his day?

It's frosting, it ain't cake.

So if the data told you Kopitar was 30% on that side and 40% vs. this particular opposing centerman, but Carter was running 70% on both, you wouldn't use that data to make an informed decision on your hunch? Because f*** that guy right?

Nobody is saying that stats guy is running into the room and going TODD NOOOOOOO KOPITAR IS 2% WORSE ON THAT SIDE. The 'nature of those situations' would be in the coach's hands and ANY smart coach/boss is going to have done his studying, which is a combo of video, intuition, past game knowledge and stats.

 

[Statto]

So if the data told you Kopitar was 30% on that side and 40% vs. this particular opposing centerman, but Carter was running 70% on both, you wouldn't use that data to make an informed decision on your hunch? Because f*** that guy right?

Nobody is saying that stats guy is running into the room and going TODD NOOOOOOO KOPITAR IS 2% WORSE ON THAT SIDE. The 'nature of those situations' would be in the coach's hands and ANY smart coach/boss is going to have done his studying, which is a combo of video, intuition, past game knowledge and stats.

Funny enough I’ve made that exact call in a play-off game, changed the centre on a key defensive draw. That was based on the data I had between the two C’s in question. Our guy was better in the draw in general, significantly, but against this guy he struggled particularly in our own end. Fortunately the change was successful because there’s certainly no guarantee. However the important bit was that the coach looked at me for a recommendation.. his instincts told him he should ask the question.

 

[NikF]

Analytics are absolutely terrible for sports, they breed a game that shows less variety and creativity than ever. Just watch euro football these days and you will realize it. The worst part is that while it is understandable (if often stupid) to tell a pro player not to take long shots or attack more down the right side because numbers show he can't dribble to the left as well, the idiot analytics-influenced coaches do this kind of shit in juniors too. So you have young developing kids instructed to all play the same cookie-cutter game stats nerd claim is the right way to play. Only two touches on the ball max, no dribbling, no long shots, so the game ends up producing the same boring player over and over again in a self-replicating loop. Analytics have been absolutely terrible for sports and I have never been more bored watching team sports because of it. The real destruction caused by analytics takes place with developing players, it sucks the creativity and individual expression out of the player. Analytics is really more like a cult, closer to a political system rather than anything proven beyond doubt to actually help win championships, but it's spread is entirely comparable to a cult.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Basic publicly available analytics could have saved the Kings from the PLD trade.

I think when you evaluate a player you need to actually watch them play. You also need to reference the analytics. If both align, you've probably got the correct read on the player.

Despite what I was told, I'm skeptical of the Kings player evaluations. I don't think analytics weighed heavily on many of their decisions.

I think the Kings acquire players who look good on paper. It doesn't appear to me they're doing their homework.

They wanted PLD because he's 6'4' 224lbs 25YO, plays center, and scores 60pts. That's likely the end of the analysis.

PL has a high xGF. xGF weights shots by distance from the net, better chances are taken closer to the net. PL is one of the few players that gets the puck down low & skates directly at the net. Most players don't do this because the defense are standing there, normally to hit them. Meanwhile we're all screaming go to the net like Sutter, with all the other players.

Then the King's tried to use him to defend in transition where he was ineffective & not being used to his highest potential, & Saddled with non NHL scrubs to further run his numbers down.

They misinterpreted the information & deployed the player in a way that made him less effective. Never asked why his xGF was high.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Analytics are absolutely terrible for sports, they breed a game that shows less variety and creativity than ever. Just watch euro football these days and you will realize it. The worst part is that while it is understandable (if often stupid) to tell a pro player not to take long shots or attack more down the right side because numbers show he can't dribble to the left as well, the idiot analytics-influenced coaches do this kind of shit in juniors too. So you have young developing kids instructed to all play the same cookie-cutter game stats nerd claim is the right way to play. Only two touches on the ball max, no dribbling, no long shots, so the game ends up producing the same boring player over and over again in a self-replicating loop. Analytics have been absolutely terrible for sports and I have never been more bored watching team sports because of it. The real destruction caused by analytics takes place with developing players, it sucks the creativity and individual expression out of the player. Analytics is really more like a cult, closer to a political system rather than anything proven beyond doubt to actually help win championships, but it's spread is entirely comparable to a cult.

That's inevitable. Look at the introduction of replay. Or just video in general. You used to actually need scouts at a game to watch the other team. Now you can just watch the same thing, over, and over, and over, and over again. Without needing to go anywhere. You can pinpoint every minute weakness. Whereas old school scouting, you see a play, it's gone forever, except for whatever you happen to remember. Which could just be a feeling, and feelings are often wrong.

Unfortunately, while hockey is our entertainment, it's a job for other people. What do you do at your job? Essentially, you probably try to minimize mistakes. There's some room for creativity, if you've shown that you know the rules before you break them, but you can't have too many mistakes.

 

[Omni Owl]

A must read from Rosen

“Getting uncomfortable”? Kings executives are preaching it, not practicing it

Sometimes it’s good to read internet message boards.

t.co

Great write up. Nice to see someone point out the lack of media accountability for hockey in this city. Hellene Eliott is another writer you can trust to not bullshit fans. Lombardi brought the right culture here, losing the fun in the sun and coasting mentality. You can't really teach that, he had the mindset to make it work. Love that he could peg Alzner for being the wrong fit due to his presentation and attire. I wouldn't want to stare down DL in an interview.

As if Stamkos was ever going to come to LA with a 13% state income tax while the rate in Tennessee is 0%. Players pay attention to this. The last 4 Cup winners are teams playing in states with no income tax. Coincidence? I think not.

Never really felt like we had a shot anyways, though he would've been ideal. He reminds me of a DL type player (DL would've never gunned for PLD). We're clearly taxed to oblivion in CA, but I think someone here pointed out that since half the games are on the road, players don't fully get taxed in the state. Not sure if that's true, but even then they play a lot of games up in San Jose and in Anaheim.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Great write up. Nice to see someone point out the lack of media accountability for hockey in this city. Hellene Eliott is another writer you can trust to not bullshit fans. Lombardi brought the right culture here, losing the fun in the sun and coasting mentality. You can't really teach that, he had the mindset to make it work. Love that he could peg Alzner for being the wrong fit due to his presentation and attire. I wouldn't want to stare down DL in an interview.

Which is why he didn't buy Richards out. He still believed in the myth of Mike Richards. Until they weren't winning, and then, and only then, did a "border incident" matter.

And the culture couldn't overcome losing Voynov to criminal activity. Couldn't even squeak into the playoffs. Had they done so, they lose the 2015 pick, so they probably don't get Lucic. Had they not done that, they may have been a worse team in 15-16, which means Kopitar might not be re-signed. How do you not re-sign your 1C when you're a top 5 team on the day he's signed? Not trading him in a go for it year when you invested in Lucic, and don't want to let him walk for nothing(that's something only Blake would do), so only one choice left unless he retired.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Thatta boy, Jonny.

“Getting uncomfortable?” Kings executives are preaching it, not practicing it

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Analytics are absolutely terrible for sports, they breed a game that shows less variety and creativity than ever. Just watch euro football these days and you will realize it. The worst part is that while it is understandable (if often stupid) to tell a pro player not to take long shots or attack more down the right side because numbers show he can't dribble to the left as well, the idiot analytics-influenced coaches do this kind of shit in juniors too. So you have young developing kids instructed to all play the same cookie-cutter game stats nerd claim is the right way to play. Only two touches on the ball max, no dribbling, no long shots, so the game ends up producing the same boring player over and over again in a self-replicating loop. Analytics have been absolutely terrible for sports and I have never been more bored watching team sports because of it. The real destruction caused by analytics takes place with developing players, it sucks the creativity and individual expression out of the player. Analytics is really more like a cult, closer to a political system rather than anything proven beyond doubt to actually help win championships, but it's spread is entirely comparable to a cult.

I can't really disagree with THAT part of it, and let's not even get into baseball

I don't think those things are apples to apples to hockey though

Which is why he didn't buy Richards out. He still believed in the myth of Mike Richards. Until they weren't winning, and then, and only then, did a "border incident" matter.

And the culture couldn't overcome losing Voynov to criminal activity. Couldn't even squeak into the playoffs. Had they done so, they lose the 2015 pick, so they probably don't get Lucic. Had they not done that, they may have been a worse team in 15-16, which means Kopitar might not be re-signed. How do you not re-sign your 1C when you're a top 5 team on the day he's signed? Not trading him in a go for it year when you invested in Lucic, and don't want to let him walk for nothing(that's something only Blake would do), so only one choice left unless he retired.

It's very true. His values led to his mistakes...but I'd much rather have a guy romanticising his vision than not really having one at all. And honestly--I would have said that had he exited prior to winning a Cup, as well. We never didn't know what the plan was--only whether could he execute.

Blake is almost the other extreme. Does not subscribe to sunk cost fallacy, but also changes the goal/vision seemingly on a whim.

 

[KingsFan7824]

I can't really disagree with THAT part of it, and let's not even get into baseball

I don't think those things are apples to apples to hockey though



It's very true. His values led to his mistakes...but I'd much rather have a guy romanticising his vision than not really having one at all. And honestly--I would have said that had he exited prior to winning a Cup, as well. We never didn't know what the plan was--only whether could he execute.

Blake is almost the other extreme. Does not subscribe to sunk cost fallacy, but also changes the goal/vision seemingly on a whim.

I don't know what Blake would've done if he took over the Kings team as it was, with all the non-winning, in 2006. I don't know what DL would've done if he took over the Kings team as it was, after relatively recent championship glory, in 2017.

In 2006, there's a bunch of youth with a bunch of old dudes who didn't win. In 2017, there's not a ton of youth, but you have franchise legends that actually raised the Cup. Two different situations.

Is there any GM that takes over the Kings roster in 2017 and does a full rebuild off the bat? I don't believe so. Is there a GM that could've traded Kopitar and Doughty in 2019 in a total rebuild effort? I don't believe so. Is there a GM that would've traded Kopitar at the 2016 deadline, especially with where the team was in the standings? I don't believe so.

Is there a GM that buys Richards out in June 2014? Probably, but it made sense that DL didn't. Other than remembering how much complaining there was before the 2012 playoffs, I don't actually castigate DL for not buying him out. I get the culture logic of it. I get why DL would trade a bunch for Lucic, even if the Kings were no longer a contender. I don't think many GMs would tear everything down simply because a team isn't a contender. I don't believe they think that way. DL made the Bishop trade, when they weren't a contender.

Maybe Blake would do different things if he had the 2006 Kings instead of the 2017 Kings. Maybe he's just a gunslinger, doing whatever in the moment to try and get franchise legends another Cup because it would be a great story.

 

[SmytheKing]

I don't know what Blake would've done if he took over the Kings team as it was, with all the non-winning, in 2006. I don't know what DL would've done if he took over the Kings team as it was, after relatively recent championship glory, in 2017.

In 2006, there's a bunch of youth with a bunch of old dudes who didn't win. In 2017, there's not a ton of youth, but you have franchise legends that actually raised the Cup. Two different situations.

Is there any GM that takes over the Kings roster in 2017 and does a full rebuild off the bat? I don't believe so. Is there a GM that could've traded Kopitar and Doughty in 2019 in a total rebuild effort? I don't believe so. Is there a GM that would've traded Kopitar at the 2016 deadline, especially with where the team was in the standings? I don't believe so.

Is there a GM that buys Richards out in June 2014? Probably, but it made sense that DL didn't. Other than remembering how much complaining there was before the 2012 playoffs, I don't actually castigate DL for not buying him out. I get the culture logic of it. I get why DL would trade a bunch for Lucic, even if the Kings were no longer a contender. I don't think many GMs would tear everything down simply because a team isn't a contender. I don't believe they think that way. DL made the Bishop trade, when they weren't a contender.

Maybe Blake would do different things if he had the 2006 Kings instead of the 2017 Kings. Maybe he's just a gunslinger, doing whatever in the moment to try and get franchise legends another Cup because it would be a great story.

DL needed to be let go at the time he was let go. The problem is that they then hired someone who just continued to do what DL was trying to do...but in a different, and less intelligent, way.

The reason you let go of DL at that time is because you want to bring in someone new to change the entire direction of the team, not because you think Rob f'ing Blake is going to be smarter than Lombardi.

 

[ZiggyPalffyLA]

A must read from Rosen

“Getting uncomfortable”? Kings executives are preaching it, not practicing it

Sometimes it’s good to read internet message boards.

t.co

This article is obviously great but my favorite thing about it is knowing Luc & Blake have read it and are absolutely seething. They’re so used to nothing but yes men and “we’re a family” bullshit that any criticism of them is sure to cut deep.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Lombardi's major downfall was his refusal to fire Sutter, who had obv worn out his welcome in LA with the players, media, etc.

Also, the Lucic, Sekera and Bishop trades were about as bad as the PLD deal. He gave away Cernak, Jones, Miller, and two 1st's - one of which they were going to use to draft Barzal.

Cernak could be the nasty LHD the Kings have been searching for years - Jones could have been flipped for a better asset or they could have kept him. Same with Colin Miller. And also the 1sts...

 

[KingsHockey24]

The Bishop trade was strange because Budaj was great for basically the entire season - minus letting in a softy to start every game within the first 2 minutes.

I don't hate the Lucic trade, he was pretty solid for us.

Sekera was dog shit. Like at least make a move for a RHD if you're trying to replace Voynov.

 

[Johnny Utah]

The Bishop trade was strange because Budaj was great for basically the entire season - minus letting in a softy to start every game within the first 2 minutes.

I don't hate the Lucic trade, he was pretty solid for us.

Sekera was dog shit. Like at least make a move for a RHD if you're trying to replace Voynov.

All those players only lasted a year just like PLD.

Which is worse - one year of PLD and Kuemper for AI, Kupari, Vilardi and a 2nd (Durzi) OR one year (or less) of Bishop, Sekera, and Lucic for Miller, Jones, Cernak and two 1sts.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

All those players only lasted a year just like PLD.

Which is worse - one year of PLD and Kuemper for AI, Kupari, Vilardi and a 2nd (Durzi) OR one year (or less) of Bishop, Sekera, and Lucic for Miller, Jones, Cernak and two 1sts.

Context.

 

[theMajor]

DL needed to be let go at the time he was let go. The problem is that they then hired someone who just continued to do what DL was trying to do...but in a different, and less intelligent, way.

I dont think even Rob Blake knows what Rob Blake is 'trying to do'. he's changed course far too many times to have any vision in the style or clarity of Lombardi

 

[Piston]

Yes. It’s a coincidence. Otherwise the panthers would have not been a largely bad franchise for the past 30 years. Same with Tampa. Nashville hasn’t ever won anything.

Teams win the cup because the organizations draft, trade, and develop well. Like Boston did. Like the kings did. Like Detroit did. Like the penguins did.

The tax thing is just such a minor issue that seems to have taken on a life of its own with some very specific segments of people…and it’s definitely not limited to where free agents go in their favorite sports.

Completely, respectfully disagree. Reinhart and Stamkos were the top UFAs last year. Both signed in no income tax states. The Kings would have had to pay Reinhart $10mm just to match Florida's offer when you figure in taxes ($8,625,000/(1-.13)). Players are taxed in the state where the game is played- Reinhart plays over half his games on a $0 income tax state. On what planet are the Kings getting Gustav Forsling for the $5.75mm Florida is paying him? Stamkos and Marschesault both went to Nashville after playing in $0 income tax states. Next to the chance to win the Cup, AFTER TAX income is the biggest driver of UFA decisions. That trumps nice weather every single time. Want more proof? Why has no Canadian team won the Cup in 30+ years? Heck, only 1 Canadian-based team has even made the finals in quite a while. In baseball with no salary Cap, the big market teams can offer a lot more money to offset higher taxes. In the NHL with finite dollars to dole out, taxes matter, a lot. Ask yourself. why did Tkachuk want out of hockey-mad Calgary and immediately sign long term in Florida? This is an emerging theme that will increasingly dominate competitiveness in the NHL.