Fire Lindy and Green, Now

[NJDevs26]

We've gone through this argument before, but Severson got a LOT of top four time the month or so Marino was out (like 1/4 of the season), that certainly skewed the numbers. Not as much the rest of the season.

 

[Guttersniped]

Adding up his time is meaningless if you want to ignore half of his season.

Subtracting his Hamilton time still leaves 40% of total time .

He played half of his time in the top 4 no matter how you slice it. That's why he literally finished 4th in 5v5 toi.

I love how less than 40% is “half”.



How much time did these Top four defensemen play on the 3rd pair?




Vs this


He was our 5th defensemen last year, sorry if that basic fact bothers you.

You have four defensemen in your top four, that’s how the number four works.

A team might have more than four guys good enough to play in their top four, or maybe they have less than four, but only four play in the top two pairs.

 

[McDuffz88]

The sad part is I honestly don't have faith in Fitz firing Ruff. I hope I'm wrong but I just have a gut feeling this off season he's going to trade for a goalie & then give Ruff benefit of the doubt and say in his interview it's my fault I didn't sign a goalie so I'm giving Lindy a chance with a real one. Then next year the second we go on a losing streak we will once again hear the fire Lindy chants.

 

[NJDevs26]

The sad part is I honestly don't have faith in Fitz firing Ruff. I hope I'm wrong but I just have a gut feeling this off season he's going to trade for a goalie & then give Ruff benefit of the doubt and say in his interview it's my fault I didn't sign a goalie so I'm giving Lindy a chance with a real one. Then next year the second we go on a losing streak we will once again hear the fire Lindy chants.

I actually think there could be a mercy kill coming up soon (which will be more annoying they only did shit after it hit the fan), they're all but out of the playoff race now - if Lindy isn't going to be here beyond this year why keep him around to hear Fire Lindy chants the remaining ten or so home games?

 

[ZYXWVUT]

The sad part is I honestly don't have faith in Fitz firing Ruff. I hope I'm wrong but I just have a gut feeling this off season he's going to trade for a goalie & then give Ruff benefit of the doubt and say in his interview it's my fault I didn't sign a goalie so I'm giving Lindy a chance with a real one. Then next year the second we go on a losing streak we will once again hear the fire Lindy chants.

Yep I’m with ya. The only hope I am holding onto is Emily Kaplan saying this week that people in the circles she has talked to all think lindy is done after this year.

 

[Devils731]

It does seem multiple players give less than ringing endorsement for how the Devils play, both ex and current Devils.

I don’t think they dislike Ruff the person but the lack of ringing endorsement lets you know what they’re thinking.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[billingtons ghost]

Right.

Severson 5v5 minutes: 1365−427(w/Smith)−302(w/Bahl)= 636 remaining.


636/1365 = 47% of his 5v5 time was not with obvious 3rd pairing guys.

It was literally with everyone else in the top 4.

Calling this player 3rd pairing is simply incorrect. Not that it matters. NHL teams don't hand out 6+ million dollar contracts for 3rd pair Dmen and the label for Severson is pure silliness

I know you love Severson. He was without a doubt a third pairing defenseman the entire year.

 

[amikaro]

I know you love Severson. He was without a doubt a third pairing defenseman the entire year.

Nah! Severson was Top4 in Jersey and they couldn't afford to keep him - or let's say it was a good decision to let him walk with the prospects in the pipe.

He had good offensive impact, was able to cary the puck and played his D smart.

 

[guitarguyvic]

The sad part is I honestly don't have faith in Fitz firing Ruff. I hope I'm wrong but I just have a gut feeling this off season he's going to trade for a goalie & then give Ruff benefit of the doubt and say in his interview it's my fault I didn't sign a goalie so I'm giving Lindy a chance with a real one. Then next year the second we go on a losing streak we will once again hear the fire Lindy chants.

I would bet good money that if Fitz goes this route and acquires Markstrom, said goalie will look like shit for us and there will be a contingent here that still blames the goalie….cuz these folks are legit deranged about the goalie position.

The only factor that might prevent that is if Fitz also does a major overhaul of the skaters, but I think there’s a limit to how much he can do there beyond maybe adding a vet LD and some toughness/speed to the bottom six.

For the most part, the combination of Lindy’s ineptitude with a still inexperienced D is going to result in any goalie looking below average.

 

[Louskoolaid89]

I actually think there could be a mercy kill coming up soon (which will be more annoying they only did shit after it hit the fan), they're all but out of the playoff race now - if Lindy isn't going to be here beyond this year why keep him around to hear Fire Lindy chants the remaining ten or so home games?

Yeah this is gonna get worse before it gets better. Bad vibes all around. Lindy should have been let go about a month ago IMO. Even a new voice and a rejuvenated talented group. It's probably gonna be too little too late. Need to go something like 15-5-2 to make it to 96 points. That's to be just on or over the bubble. Do that despite our bad goaltending it's likely a quick exit from the playoffs. I'd take that if it doesn't happen by the hands of the Rags. It would be nice just to be able to have something to cheer for over the last 20 games. Not happing with the status quo folks.

 

[forceten]

Wait is Jim really fighting on stats with Gutter? That’s … you don’t win those. She’s encyclopedia brattanica over here.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Wait is Jim really fighting on stats with Gutter? That’s

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

There is absolutely no way you can convince me they are better at this point. Graves played top shutdown minutes and had a very good season with us. Severson was dominant from the third pair.

did you watch the 2nd half of the season/playoffs last year? Graves was horrid

and yes, Severson played great 3rd pairing minutes. Both the guys I mentioned are playing tougher minutes and not looking out of place.

 

[devilsblood]

This thread is a good example of why you don't start separate threads for every "new" idea you have.

 

[JimEIV]

I know you love Severson. He was without a doubt a third pairing defenseman the entire year.

If the 3rd pairing guys in Smith and Bahl averaged 6th 13:55 and 7th 13:06 at Even Strength how does Severson average 17:34 and be 4th in ES ATOI if he was 3rd pairing all year. 4 minutes a game even when he's pair with these guys he has to paired with someone else at ES. Severson is playing 23.5% more minutes than these guys on average.

Even though his most common partners were Smith and Bahl, he literally played as much time with Graves/Siegenthaler/Marino/Hamilton last season .

ES ATOI
Hamilton. 18:32
Siegenthaler 17:49
Marino 17:48
Severson. 17:34
Graves 17:29
Smith 13:55
Bahl 13:06

Again the difference between Dman #2 and #5 last year was 20 seconds ATOI at even strength.

The difference between Marino and Severson as RHD #2 and #3 was 14 seconds ATOI. That's freakishly even over the course of a full season.

If RD #2 and RD#3 are playing the exact same amount at ES, calling one guy 3rd pairing is is a bit nonsensical.


This year the ES minutes look this:
*Hamilton 19:03
1. Nemec 17:49
2.Marino 17:48
3. Luke 17:45
4. Siegenthaler 17:37
5. Bahl 15:24
Miller 14:38.
Hatakka 14:15
Smith 11:46

This year there is a clear delineation between top 4 and 3rd pairing that didn't exist last year.

Last year #4 and #5 were separated by 5 seconds. This year #4 and #5 are separated by 2:13 seconds.

If you look at RD2(Marino) and RD3(Miller )this year the difference is 3:10 and last year it was 14 seconds.

Severson was not used as 3rd pairing guy last year. It's just not true.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Throw Jim back on the lake

 

[TrufleShufle]

This thread is a good example of why you don't start separate threads for every "new" idea you have.

Ehh, I feel like this is a good example of why sometimes it's good. Like the goalie one a while back. Sometimes it get exhausting to scroll past. They do all start to talk about the same thing, but that's user error.

 

[devilsblood]

Ehh, I feel like this is a good example of why sometimes it's good. Like the goalie one a while back. Sometimes it get exhausting to scroll past. They do all start to talk about the same thing, but that's user error.

Very predictable user error.

 

[Guttersniped]

Wait is Jim really fighting on stats with Gutter? That’s … you don’t win those. She’s encyclopedia brattanica over here.

The thing is I agree that Ruff has worse line-up to work with, particularly on defense. We had 3 pairs that worked quite well last season and player from each of them is gone.

But when Dallas went from 109 points in 15-16 in to 79 points in 16-17 they lost a lot of key personnel too.

They lost their 1D, Goligoski, and Demers, who played on their 2nd pair most of the season.

Their replacements? A 22 yo rookie Lindell and an ancient Dan Hamhuis.

Oduya was paired with Demers and played 82 games in 15-16, then missed quite a bit of time the next season as his career winded down.

His replacement on the 2nd pair was a warm body (Jordie Benn, Stephen Jones).

Golgoski, Demers and Oduya were their PK mainstays, so all this wrecked that too. And I mean wrecked it, it was 10th (82.26%) in 15-16 vs 30th (73.90%) in 16-17.

Spoiler: HockeyViz Dallas info (fun!)

2015-16



VS
2016-17

Did Ruff get a mulligan because of this? No he did not. He got fired because this the NHL.

We’re trying to put on our big boy pants now and step up. Accountability means firing the coach when everything goes to shit.

NHL coaching jobs are for closers only.

 

[Guttersniped]

If the 3rd pairing guys in Smith and Bahl averaged 6th 13:55 and 7th 13:06 at Even Strength how does Severson average 17:34 and be 4th in ES ATOI if he was 3rd pairing all year. 4 minutes a game even when he's pair with these guys he has to paired with someone else at ES. Severson is playing 23.5% more minutes than these guys on average.

Even though his most common partners were Smith and Bahl, he literally played as much time with Graves/Siegenthaler/Marino/Hamilton last season .

ES ATOI
Hamilton. 18:32
Siegenthaler 17:49
Marino 17:48
Severson. 17:34
Graves 17:29
Smith 13:55
Bahl 13:06

Again the difference between Dman #2 and #5 last year was 20 seconds ATOI at even strength.

The difference between Marino and Severson as RHD #2 and #3 was 14 seconds ATOI. That's freakishly even over the course of a full season.

If RD #2 and RD#3 are playing the exact same amount at ES, calling one guy 3rd pairing is is a bit nonsensical.


This year the ES minutes look this:
*Hamilton 19:03
1. Nemec 17:49
2.Marino 17:48
3. Luke 17:45
4. Siegenthaler 17:37
5. Bahl 15:24
Miller 14:38.
Hatakka 14:15
Smith 11:46

This year there is a clear delineation between top 4 and 3rd pairing that didn't exist last year.

Last year #4 and #5 were separated by 5 seconds. This year #4 and #5 are separated by 2:13 seconds.

If you look at RD2(Marino) and RD3(Miller )this year the difference is 3:10 and last year it was 14 seconds.

Severson was not used as 3rd pairing guy last year. It's just not true.

You can keep f***ing this chicken but I’m personally going to give the poor guy a rest.

 

[devilsblood]

If the 3rd pairing guys in Smith and Bahl averaged 6th 13:55 and 7th 13:06 at Even Strength how does Severson average 17:34 and be 4th in ES ATOI if he was 3rd pairing all year. 4 minutes a game even when he's pair with these guys he has to paired with someone else at ES. Severson is playing 23.5% more minutes than these guys on average.

Even though his most common partners were Smith and Bahl, he literally played as much time with Graves/Siegenthaler/Marino/Hamilton last season .

ES ATOI
Hamilton. 18:32
Siegenthaler 17:49
Marino 17:48
Severson. 17:34
Graves 17:29
Smith 13:55
Bahl 13:06

Again the difference between Dman #2 and #5 last year was 20 seconds ATOI at even strength.

The difference between Marino and Severson as RHD #2 and #3 was 14 seconds ATOI. That's freakishly even over the course of a full season.

If RD #2 and RD#3 are playing the exact same amount at ES, calling one guy 3rd pairing is is a bit nonsensical.


This year the ES minutes look this:
*Hamilton 19:03
1. Nemec 17:49
2.Marino 17:48
3. Luke 17:45
4. Siegenthaler 17:37
5. Bahl 15:24
Miller 14:38.
Hatakka 14:15
Smith 11:46

This year there is a clear delineation between top 4 and 3rd pairing that didn't exist last year.

Last year #4 and #5 were separated by 5 seconds. This year #4 and #5 are separated by 2:13 seconds.

If you look at RD2(Marino) and RD3(Miller )this year the difference is 3:10 and last year it was 14 seconds.

Severson was not used as 3rd pairing guy last year. It's just not true.

I'm very much with you.

Although Sev's was 5th overall in 5v5 toi, he averaged 30 seconds less of toi then our overall leader,and 5 seconds less then #4, but 3:00 minutes more then the 6th guy on the list.

Overall toi he was 4th, and again was 1 minute behind #2 on the list, 12 seconds behind #3, but 4 minutes more then #6.

Saying he was "3rd pair" is being pretty disingenuous.

 

[NJDevs26]

Until recently the thread had stuck to coaching stuff, that is kind of a big standalone topic at this point, and one that can be more easily 'rectified' than the goalie thing, which might officially be punted in a matter of days.

 

[JimEIV]

I'm very much with you.

Although Sev's was 5th overall in 5v5 toi, he averaged 30 seconds less of toi then our overall leader,and 5 seconds less then #4, but 3:00 minutes more then the 6th guy on the list.

Overall toi he was 4th, and again was 1 minute behind #2 on the list, 12 seconds behind #3, but 4 minutes more then #6.

Saying he was "3rd pair" is being pretty disingenuous.

"Saying he was "3rd pair" is being pretty disingenuous"

Quoted for truth.

That is 100% my entire point.

Miller is actually being used as the 3rd pair/3RHD this season. If you compare the two, Severson last season and Miller this season, they are not remotely close to the same.

You can keep f***ing this chicken but I’m personally going to give the poor guy a rest.

I do it for the clucks.

 

[JimEIV]

He was our 5th defensemen last year, sorry if that basic fact bothers you.

The ATOI don't add up to this claim.

But I like the fact that you clearly moved off "3rd pair" and moved on to 5th Dmen... Even though that is clearly not true, it's movement in the right direction.