Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[NyQuil]

I don’t see why it’s that difficult a concept.

Whether or not it’s DJ’s direct fault, he’s been here a long time by NHL standards (7th most active games with his current team), he has an abysmal record, and we won’t really know if our players don’t work until we see them with someone else at the helm.

I mean, in any other line of work, would Smith get this much rope?

If another coach gets nothing done, then the mix of players is wrong and Dorion is out.

At which point, a new GM takes a fresh look at the roster and makes the tough choices.

We’re just treading water here until the first domino falls.

I’d prefer to see another coach first to see if he can get more out of post-Melnyk Dorion’s moves, but given that Dorion is keeping Smith around, that’s also a bit of an indictment of him, and the more time we waste the more I’m also inclined to turf both guys as soon as possible.

 

[BondraTime]

Sure, but that doesn't tell the whole story. We've given up a lot of shots (34 per game) which helps inflate SV%. But I'd say we've been good for, usually, 1-2 bad goals given up per game. That's not the best, especially for a team that has such a razor thin margin to work with.

Last night was a good example. Cam Talbot had a .914 SV%. Good, if you just look at the number! But the Karlsson goal was soft and a back breaker. Bad!

Part of the reason our advanced stats are completely useless.

The way they dole out high scoring chances, scoring chances, etc. is laughable.

3 wraparounds with no chance of going in are high danger scoring chances because they occurred in xxx area. Useless.

 

[Rand0m]

You can’t coach every player to be offensively gifted but ANY NHLer can be taught to play well defensively. Defensive play is 90% system and positioning.

With the Sens, it’s a mix of lack of NHL level players on the lower lines and an ineffective coaching system. Unfortunately, I’m afraid no changes will come to the roster or coaching staff until new ownership has a commitment to buy.

At this point, the season is already wasted so might as well let Smith get them a good draft pick.

 

[Micklebot]

Sure, but that doesn't tell the whole story. We've given up a lot of shots (34 per game) which helps inflate SV%. But I'd say we've been good for, usually, 1-2 bad goals given up per game. That's not the best, especially for a team that has such a razor thin margin to work with.

Last night was a good example. Cam Talbot had a .914 SV%. Good, if you just look at the number! But the Karlsson goal was soft and a back breaker. Bad!

Every goalie let's in the odd bad goal, for our goalies to be bad you need to show they allow more bad goals than others. We allow the 7th most HDCA/60, 7th most xGA/60 and the 6th most SA/60, all strengths, doesn't appear to support the more shots inflates sv% hypotheses

 

[Micklebot]

Part of the reason our advanced stats are completely useless.

The way they dole out high scoring chances, scoring chances, etc. is laughable.

3 wraparounds with no chance of going in are high danger scoring chances because they occurred in xxx area. Useless.

A wrap around likely wouldn't register as a high danger chance, there are a lot of factors that go into the stats, distance from the net is one of many and less important than most think.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Every goalie let's in the odd bad goal, for our goalies to be bad you need to show they allow more bad goals than others. We allow the 7th most HDCA/60, 7th most xGA/60 and the 6th most SA/60, all strengths, doesn't appear to support the more shots inflates sv% hypotheses

Jeezus, the "metrics" again. You'd think that by now, people would realize that numbers don't tell the whole story. They can be used as data points, but they're not everything. They completely lack context. The type of goals that are given up, the timing at which they're given up, etc, all matter.

Our goaltending has not been good. In the last 8 games, the starting goalie has been pulled 3 times. That's bad.

Is it the biggest problem with the team? Of course not. It's probably not in the top 5. But it hasn't helped. And I don't need to "show a stat" that to justify that statement. Watching every game is good enough.

 

[NyQuil]

Jeezus, the "metrics" again. You'd think that by now, people would realize that numbers don't tell the whole story. They can be used as data points, but they're not everything. They completely lack context. The type of goals that are given up, the timing at which they're given up, etc, all matter.

Our goaltending has not been good. In the last 8 games, the starting goalie has been pulled 3 times. That's bad.

Is it the biggest problem with the team? Of course not. It's probably not in the top 5. But it hasn't helped. And I don't need to "show a stat" that to justify that statement. Watching every game is good enough.

The biggest problem with the team is that they appear on the verge of losing the game at any given time.

I can’t remember a Senators team that inspired so little confidence.

Even when they play well, and they do, you know they won’t score that critical extra goal.

When they get a PP at a crucial time in the game, you know they won’t score.

When you need that critical save to keep the game in reach, you don’t get it.

When you have the momentum, a Senator takes an ill-advised, unnecessary penalty.

Late in the period, someone invariably misses their coverage and the opposition gets an easy goal.

It really is like Groundhog Day.

 

[Micklebot]

Jeezus, the "metrics" again. You'd think that by now, people would realize that numbers don't tell the whole story. They can be used as data points, but they're not everything. They completely lack context. The type of goals that are given up, the timing at which they're given up, etc, all matter.

Our goaltending has not been good. In the last 8 games, the starting goalie has been pulled 3 times. That's bad.

Is it the biggest problem with the team? Of course not. It's probably not in the top 5. But it hasn't helped. And I don't need to "show a stat" that to justify that statement. Watching every game is good enough.

I'm backing up my observation with metrics because I've watched a lot of games this year beyond just sens games and don't think our goalies stand out as particularly poor. They aren't stealing games but thats not a standard I expect

It's easy to say our goalies haven't been good, it's much more difficult to show your work when someone disagrees with you. There have certainly been games where our goalies had poor performances, as is the case with most teams, I personally find blaming the goalies a weak argument since imo, we've just plain hung out goalies out to dry far too often.

 

[NyQuil]

I mean, there’s a few posts I made before the season started where I felt that Forsberg hid a lot of warts last season and goaltending just isn’t reliable in this league, so we could be due to a regression.

Give Toronto credit in that the goaltender doesn’t matter as much because they play a pretty solid system in their own zone.

Our goaltending matters a lot because it’s the only way we can win hockey games.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Jeezus, the "metrics" again. You'd think that by now, people would realize that numbers don't tell the whole story. They can be used as data points, but they're not everything. They completely lack context. The type of goals that are given up, the timing at which they're given up, etc, all matter.

Our goaltending has not been good. In the last 8 games, the starting goalie has been pulled 3 times. That's bad.

Is it the biggest problem with the team? Of course not. It's probably not in the top 5. But it hasn't helped. And I don't need to "show a stat" that to justify that statement. Watching every game is good enough.

For a while there last season DJ would never pull a goalie, even if we were getting pasted by the opposition. Now he's puling goalies like hotcakes. Pulling goalies like this cannot be good for their confidence. DJ is literally making all the most terrible decisions. We need to trade for some sort of steady D presence and fire the coaching staff post haste.

 

[coladin]

The biggest problem with the team is that they appear on the verge of losing the game at any given time.

I can’t remember a Senators team that inspired so little confidence.

Even when they play well, and they do, you know they won’t score that critical extra goal.

When they get a PP at a crucial time in the game, you know they won’t score.

When you need that critical save to keep the game in reach, you don’t get it.

When you have the momentum, a Senator takes an ill-advised, unnecessary penalty.

Late in the period, someone invariably misses their coverage and the opposition gets an easy goal.

It really is like Groundhog Day.

This. And I can't explain it. It is truly bizarre

 

[DaveMatthew]

I'm backing up my observation with metrics because I've watched a lot of games this year beyond just sens games and don't think our goalies stand out as particularly poor. They aren't stealing games but thats not a standard I expect

It's easy to say our goalies haven't been good, it's much more difficult to show your work when someone disagrees with you. There have certainly been games where our goalies had poor performances, as is the case with most teams, I personally find blaming the goalies a weak argument since imo, we've just plain hung out goalies out to dry far too often.

I'm not blaming the goalies. Like I said, goaltending is probably not in the top 5 reasons for why we're where we are. But that doesn't mean it's been good.

There are very few "good" parts of this team right now. That's why we're tied for dead last in the league. The list from which you pulled "bad goaltending" was quite long, and probably doesn't even capture everything.

 

[Micklebot]

For a while there last season DJ would never pull a goalie, even if we were getting pasted by the opposition. Now he's puling goalies like hotcakes. Pulling goalies like this cannot be good for their confidence. DJ is literally making all the most terrible decisions. We need to trade for some sort of steady D presence and fire the coaching staff post haste.

Well, we have a 1a 1b setup, in theory being able to make the switch when one isn't having a great night, or even just because the skaters need a wake-up call is on of the advantages of having two similarly talented goalies.

 

[NyQuil]

There are very few "good" parts of this team right now. That's why we're tied for dead last in the league.

Our board is now arguing over which are the least bad aspects of our team.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not blaming the goalies. Like I said, goaltending is probably not in the top 5 reasons for why we're where we are. But that doesn't mean it's been good.

There are very few "good" parts of this team right now. That's why we're tied for dead last in the league.

What I'm saying is when I look across the league, lots of goalies are playing at a similar level to our guys, league scoring is way up, maybe it's time to re-evaluate what you should expect from a goalie, because imo, if our guys are playing poorly then so is half the league based on what I've seen.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Well, we have a 1a 1b setup, in theory being able to make the switch when one isn't having a great night, or even just because the skaters need a wake-up call is on of the advantages of having two similarly talented goalies.

So when they're both playing terrible we should just keep pulling them until one plays better? I don't give a shit how many saves they make in a game, if they aren't making the most important saves. Those important saves have to do with being confident. When I saw Thompson tending for Vegas last night, what I saw was a confident goalie. When I saw Kähkönen the other night, I saw a goalie saving the game for his team. Talbot was a GD all-star last season. So why the f*** are we not getting the saves? He has uber low confidence and so does Forsberg. The skaters need more than a wake up call. They need to play under a different coach. We need to trade DeBrincat for a top-end right hand D and we need to cut our losses.

 

[Micklebot]

So when they're both playing terrible we should just keep pulling them until one plays better? I don't give a shit how many saves they make in a game, if they aren't making the most important saves. Those important saves have to do with being confident. When I saw Thompson tending for Vegas last night, what I saw was a confident goalie. When I saw Kähkönen the other night, I saw a goalie saving the game for his team. Talbot was a GD all-star last season. So why the f*** are we not getting the saves? He has uber low confidence and so does Forsberg. The skaters need more than a wake up call. They need to play under a different coach. We need to trade DeBrincat for a top-end right hand D and we need to cut our losses.

Goaltending is probably the easiest position to let emotion cloud judgement on. People freak out about a goal allowed and blame the goalie regardless of whether it's screen or if they miss that it was deflected, but rarely will blame the oppositions goalie when their own team scores, instead it was a perfect shot, or maybe credit the shooter for getting it through the maze of legs.

Confidence is certainly important for a goalie, does your goalie lose more confidence from being pulled, or from being left out there when the team plays like ass in front of him? I think we need to worry more about fixing the stuff in front of the goalies, they aren't a problem imo.

 

[BondraTime]

Goaltending has definitely been a problem

 

[DylanSensFan]

Goaltending is probably the easiest position to let emotion cloud judgement on. People freak out about a goal allowed and blame the goalie regardless of whether it's screen or if they miss that it was deflected, but rarely will blame the oppositions goalie when their own team scores, instead it was a perfect shot, or maybe credit the shooter for getting it through the maze of legs.

Confidence is certainly important for a goalie, does your goalie lose more confidence from being pulled, or from being left out there when the team plays like ass in front of him? I think we need to worry more about fixing the stuff in front of the goalies, they aren't a problem imo.

I saw Thompson makes some ridiculous saves last night. I saw Talbot make positional saves. So I guess at least he's playing positionally? I guess he's like the rest of the team... average.

 

[Micklebot]

Goaltending has definitely been a problem

Then I guess it's a problem for ~16 other teams in the league.

 

[BondraTime]

Then I guess it's a problem for ~16 other teams in the league.

If they’re getting goaltending and goals allowed like the Sens are, then it’s definitely, without a single doubt, a problem for any team.

 

[Micklebot]

If they’re getting goaltending and goals allowed like the Sens are, then it’s definitely, without a single doubt, a problem for any team.

There's an old saying that when everything is a priority, nothing is a priority, the same idea seems to fit here, when goaltending is an problem of for all but a few teams, it's not really a problem anymore.

Alternatively, I don't need to outrun the bear that's chasing us, I just need to outrun you.

 

[Micklebot]

I saw Thompson makes some ridiculous saves last night. I saw Talbot make positional saves. So I guess at least he's playing positionally? I guess he's like the rest of the team... average.

He's having a Vezina caliber season so far, maybe this issue is your expectations.

 

[DylanSensFan]

He's having a Vezina caliber season so far, maybe this issue is your expectations.

What sort of season is Kähkönen having? Because he looked Vezina caliber against our team.

 

[BondraTime]

There's an old saying that when everything is a priority, nothing is a priority, the same idea seems to fit here, when goaltending is an problem of for all but a few teams, it's not really a problem anymore.

Alternatively, I don't need to outrun the bear that's chasing us, I just need to outrun you.

I’d think that any team getting goaltending like the Sens have are extremely worried.

Definitely a problem, regardless how other teams goalies are playing.

Deflating goals is a problem. Don’t care if the goalie has a .912 every single game, if they are allowing deflating goals every game, we’re getting bad goaltending.