We finished exactly where preseason projections had us in spite of some significant injury set backs
, but along the way showed some pretty significant developments from guys like Tkachuk, Stützle, Sanderson and Brannstrom.
Here's where the athletic had us, along with a link to the write-up if you have a subscription. A projection like this probably isn't accounting for the team being top 5 in Lost WAR from injuries, or looking at the team knowing that they'll be missing both NHL goalies at the same time for nearly a full month.
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So you can complain about how this season was a failure because we missed the playoffs, or you evaluate performance taking into account realistic expectations and mitigating factors. The two appear to be mutually exclusive options.
I think it’s fair to point out that we did finish exactly where most expected. My prediction was missing the playoffs with a poor start and a late run to pull us out of the Bedard sweepstakes.
I do think we need to look at each piece/move, see how it did, and see how it fits into the whole. Finishing where expected doesn’t necessarily translate to success.
For instance, in the Athletic article you posted part of the “best case” was Tim Stutzle turning into a superstar. Check. Huge success on that front and it’s probably the most important thing for the organization moving forward. Tkachuk, Giroux and Sanderson were also huge pluses. Even Brannstrom was a plus.
On the other hand, an example of the of the “worst case scenario” in the Athletic article was DeBrincat having an off year. Check. Batherson and Chabot also had disappointing seasons. Zub had a disappointing year, unlucky with injuries and never looked right otherwise. Depth was pretty disappointing too. Losing Formenton was out of their control but hurt a lot. The goalie injuries hurt a lot, but to be honest they weren’t great even before then.
You’ve then got a lot of guys in the middle. Pinto had decent goal production but his two way play and playmaking left a lot to be desired. Hamonic was more positive than negative but had ups and downs.
The injury to Norris was a huge blow. Hopefully he can overcome this and it won’t become a constant issue.
Hard year to evaluate, lots of successes and failures from players, coaches and management.
Ultimately I think we need to look at each element individually, consider the whole and determine whether we’re poised to take the next step. Moving in the right direction isn’t enough anymore.