Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

Should the Sens fire DJ Smith?


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Bileur

Registered User
Jun 15, 2004
18,801
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We finished exactly where preseason projections had us in spite of some significant injury set backs

, but along the way showed some pretty significant developments from guys like Tkachuk, Stützle, Sanderson and Brannstrom.

Here's where the athletic had us, along with a link to the write-up if you have a subscription. A projection like this probably isn't accounting for the team being top 5 in Lost WAR from injuries, or looking at the team knowing that they'll be missing both NHL goalies at the same time for nearly a full month.


View attachment 688406
So you can complain about how this season was a failure because we missed the playoffs, or you evaluate performance taking into account realistic expectations and mitigating factors. The two appear to be mutually exclusive options.

I think it’s fair to point out that we did finish exactly where most expected. My prediction was missing the playoffs with a poor start and a late run to pull us out of the Bedard sweepstakes.

I do think we need to look at each piece/move, see how it did, and see how it fits into the whole. Finishing where expected doesn’t necessarily translate to success.

For instance, in the Athletic article you posted part of the “best case” was Tim Stutzle turning into a superstar. Check. Huge success on that front and it’s probably the most important thing for the organization moving forward. Tkachuk, Giroux and Sanderson were also huge pluses. Even Brannstrom was a plus.

On the other hand, an example of the of the “worst case scenario” in the Athletic article was DeBrincat having an off year. Check. Batherson and Chabot also had disappointing seasons. Zub had a disappointing year, unlucky with injuries and never looked right otherwise. Depth was pretty disappointing too. Losing Formenton was out of their control but hurt a lot. The goalie injuries hurt a lot, but to be honest they weren’t great even before then.

You’ve then got a lot of guys in the middle. Pinto had decent goal production but his two way play and playmaking left a lot to be desired. Hamonic was more positive than negative but had ups and downs.

The injury to Norris was a huge blow. Hopefully he can overcome this and it won’t become a constant issue.

Hard year to evaluate, lots of successes and failures from players, coaches and management.

Ultimately I think we need to look at each element individually, consider the whole and determine whether we’re poised to take the next step. Moving in the right direction isn’t enough anymore.
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
57,013
34,776
Maybe. Although the "why wouldn't he stay" optimism sounds awfully similar to the "Mark Stone is close to an extension and of course he wants to be part of this group moving forward, he loves Brady" takes.

We'll see what happens.

But your "we just need to figure out goaltending" opinion and then we're golden is pretty way off, IMO.
The stone situation was completely different, he wanted to stay, but was conflicted because he didn't want to spend his best years going through a tear down.

In terms of the roster, we have 4 top 6 pieces locked in with term, including an elite center, a high end 2nd line center, a stud everything winger, and an offensive winger on a team friendly deal, all 24 or younger

DeBrincat fits the long term puzzle in terms of his age, we'll have to wait and see but if he signs it's 5 legit top 6 players 25 or younger.

Giroux is an Alfie type, I can see him playing till he's 40, just had a heck of a season, once the current contract is up, he could continue to give us quality top 9 mins.

Pinto and Greig both have top 6 potential, should be quality 3rd liners next year, again young at 22 and under.

There's nothing wrong with our top 9 for the next 5+ years,

Backend is looking like among the best weve had in years.

Chychrun (25), Chabot (26), Sanderson (20), Zub (27) and Brannstrom (23), that's a lot of talent and very young. Kleven, JBD, Guinette and Thomson in the pipeline gives us some good prospect depth on the verge of being ready.

The important roles are all accounted for, complaining about the bottom 6 misrepresents not liking Kelly or maybe Guathier and Kastelic on the 4th line as a bigger issue than it is.

This team is absolutely ready to take a big step,
 
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DaveMatthew

Bring in Peter
Apr 13, 2005
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The stone situation was completely different, he wanted to stay, but was conflicted because he didn't want to spend his best years going through a tear down.

In terms of the roster, we have 4 top 6 pieces locked in with term, including an elite center, a high end 2nd line center, a stud everything winger, and an offensive winger on a team friendly deal, all 24 or younger

DeBrincat fits the long term puzzle in terms of his age, we'll have to wait and see but if he signs it's 5 legit top 6 players 25 or younger.

Giroux is an Alfie type, I can see him playing till he's 40, just had a heck of a season, once the current contract is up, he could continue to give us quality top 9 mins.

Pinto and Greig both have top 6 potential, should be quality 3rd liners next year, again young at 22 and under.

There's nothing wrong with our top 9 for the next 5+ years,

Backend is looking like among the best weve had in years.

Chychrun (25), Chabot (26), Sanderson (20), Zub (27) and Brannstrom (23), that's a lot of talent and very young. Kleven, JBD, Guinette and Thomson in the pipeline gives us some good prospect depth on the verge of being ready.

The important roles are all accounted for, complaining about the bottom 6 misrepresents not liking Kelly or maybe Guathier and Kastelic on the 4th line as a bigger issue than it is.

This team is absolutely ready to take a big step,

The Stone situation was different, you're right. He had roots here. He had developed into an NHL star and leader, and if he had stayed, would have been named captain. He had tons of reasons, from a personal perspective, to stay. Debrincat doesn't have nearly as many. He has no ties here. He's coming off an underwhelming season. He struggled to carve out a role and really mesh with anyone.

Unless we give him an offer he can't refuse (i.e. 8x9M, which would significantly limit our ability to upgrade the bottom 6 or goaltending), why would he sign before testing the market?

I agree we should be thrilled about Tkachuk, Stützle and Sanderson.
I have confidence that Norris, Zub and Chychrun will bounce back from injuries and be good next year.
I have questions about Chabot and Batherson. They need to do some soul-searching. If they're going to be on the ice as much as they were this year, they can't play close to the same way.
I think Pinto will be an excellent 3rd liner next season.
I don't think Debrincat will be back and that's a big hole in the top 6.
I don't know if Greig is ready to play 82 games at the NHL level. He's averaged 43 per year over the last 5 seasons.
I think Joseph, at his contract, is an anchor. Counting him, we have $8M of dead cap next season. We can't afford the 2nd round pick it'd take to ship him to Arizona or San Jose.

So going into the next season, the questions we have:

1. Can we find a goalie who can give us 40 games of .910% or better goaltending
2. What kind of return can we get for Debrincat (it has to include a player who can step in and score 20+ goals next season. Who's giving that up for a pending UFA who, himself, only scored 27 this season?)
3. Can we find two additional quality bottom 6 players (bringing back Formenton would make this easier)
4. Can we find a steady bottom-pairing defenseman to play with Brannstrom?
5. Can we do this all and stay under, effectively, ~$77M in salary?

That's a lot of questions. Plus that's ignoring the "is DJ Smith the right guy to take this to the next level" elephant in the room.

And even if we get all that right, which team is falling out in the East? Are we leap-frogging Toronto, Tampa or Boston? If not, will we make bigger strides than Buffalo? Or can we pass Florida?

You can't just look at the team in a vacuum. Is the team better than the teams we'll be competing with?
 
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L'Aveuglette

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Jan 8, 2007
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Me, looking at all those other non-playoff teams firing their coaches:

giphy.gif
 

SquidNasty

Registered User
Dec 8, 2021
469
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Me, looking at all those other non-playoff teams firing their coaches:

giphy.gif
God is it ever frustrating the team still isn't sold. By the time a new ownership structure is in place all the good free agent coaches will be gone. Dorion won't be the one that fires Smith and will use the ownership situation as his excuse.

Assuming a conditional sale is reached in the next couple of weeks, the timing could not be any worse. By the time things are official and all the legal stuff is out of the way we'll be into August when GMs are on vacation.
 
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Blotto71

Okay, maybe the worst is behind us...?
May 12, 2013
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“(I will) do a deep dive into all the teams that have had success over the last five, six years – how much do they practise? How long do they practise and all those things. We have to do that so we’re all prepared to give our guys the best chance.” DJ Smith

Sooooo...you haven't already done that the previous 4 years??!!
 

L'Aveuglette

つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Jan 8, 2007
48,651
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“(I will) do a deep dive into all the teams that have had success over the last five, six years – how much do they practise? How long do they practise and all those things. We have to do that so we’re all prepared to give our guys the best chance.” DJ Smith

Sooooo...you haven't already done that the previous 4 years??!!

Wait what? Did he say this recently?

How embarrassing.
 
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Alf Silfversson

Registered User
Jun 8, 2011
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Come on dude, you can’t honestly be saying that Brady and Stu are fearful of career suicide if they say a bad thing about DJ… That is crazy.

Both Brady and Stu have come out into the media and made strong unsolicited comments of support for their coach, in response to the online pressure from expert fans. They are online and they have pushed back.

You may not like it or agree with it, but let’s not be dumb enough to pretend as though they are fearful of their careers here. I find it embarrassing when fans have such high opinions of their own uneducated opinions that they let them supersede the opinions of the players and people directly involved.


Only two other teams had three 35 goal scorers… Edmonton and TO…. Wild.

and we still had 3 other 20 goal guys with DBC close to 30. and missing a 35 goal man in Norris….

This team can score.

Find me an example of any star player that criticized their current coach. I'll wait. It may have happened but it's extremely rare and there are many star players who have played for bad coaches.
 
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DaveMatthew

Bring in Peter
Apr 13, 2005
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Find me an example of any star player that criticized their current coach. I'll wait. It may have happened but it's extremely rare and there are many star players who have played for bad coaches.

"The players are saying all these nice things about DJ – we have to keep him!"

Players say nice things about coaches all the time. The Jays "loved" Charlie Montoya if you listened to the interviews. But guess what? They looked like a better team after he was fired...
 

SquidNasty

Registered User
Dec 8, 2021
469
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“(I will) do a deep dive into all the teams that have had success over the last five, six years – how much do they practise? How long do they practise and all those things. We have to do that so we’re all prepared to give our guys the best chance.” DJ Smith

Sooooo...you haven't already done that the previous 4 years??!!
I thought this guy was trolling but it’s a real quote. God our franchise is such a joke, I’ll be livid if he’s back.

 

Burrowsaurus

Registered User
Mar 20, 2013
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DJ had a really really good interview.

The expected goals thing for goalies is annoying because Talbot did not have great numbers last year but we still traded for him.
 

The Devilish Buffoon

Registered User
Dec 24, 2018
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“(I will) do a deep dive into all the teams that have had success over the last five, six years – how much do they practise? How long do they practise and all those things. We have to do that so we’re all prepared to give our guys the best chance.” DJ Smith

Sooooo...you haven't already done that the previous 4 years??!!
Practice schedule, content, intensity, etc., are all different when you're going at full speed vs just getting up to speed. It seemed to me like he was referencing a changing of priorities, from development to competition. Teams full of kids and shitty depth are going to practice differently than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
"The players are saying all these nice things about DJ – we have to keep him!"

Players say nice things about coaches all the time. The Jays "loved" Charlie Montoya if you listened to the interviews. But guess what? They looked like a better team after he was fired...
I'm not a baseball fan so I'm not responding to that part of your post, but I think it all depends on whether you think there has been consistent, steady progress. If a guy is admired and respected, and the team has been on a steady (albeit bumpy) upward trajectory, I don't know that there is a rush to make that decision.
 
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Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
35,468
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Well, if the kids truly love DJ and get their wish having him back next year...they need to step up and prove it.

You love your coach and want him to stick around? Then show up ALL 82 games ready to play, and play hard, from the opening buzzer til the last second of the game. No more sleepwalking though a dozen game or playing hard for only 20 minutes a night. No more slow starts. No more lazy long change second periods.

And DJ...when the kids are sleepwalking, bench them. Making stupid mistakes where you know they simply are taking shortcuts and not taking care of the little details, bench them. They only want to play on half of the ice surface to pad their stats, bench them.

Aside from Sanderson, the kids on this team have enough games under their belts to be held accountable for their play. They should be expected to show up every game from now on. They know how the league works, and how easy it is to lose when you take being here for granted and take shortcuts.

No more excuses and promising to do better. 23-24 season is around the corner. Now it's time to expect to make it to the playoffs and make some poor teams life hell when we get there.
 

Billy Bridges

Registered User
Sep 20, 2011
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If ownership isn't resolved in time and PD and DJ stick around, I really hope they at least clean house and get some new pro scouts and assistant coaches to show they are trying to correct mistakes.
 

Blotto71

Okay, maybe the worst is behind us...?
May 12, 2013
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I thought this guy was trolling but it’s a real quote. God our franchise is such a joke, I’ll be livid if he’s back.
Thanks for providing the link to the article. And nice to meet you :) I've been here for a decade and a Sens fan from the day the franchise was awarded. I don't post much anymore but do enjoy lurking reading the discussions.
 
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Blotto71

Okay, maybe the worst is behind us...?
May 12, 2013
2,280
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Practice schedule, content, intensity, etc., are all different when you're going at full speed vs just getting up to speed. It seemed to me like he was referencing a changing of priorities, from development to competition. Teams full of kids and shitty depth are going to practice differently than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Maybe, but being competitive should always be a priority. If it wasn't then he is doing those young players a disservice. They are professional athletes and need to be taught ownership, urgency, and accountability from the outset, not after 5 years of being allowed to develop bad habits.
 

Tnuoc Alucard

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DJ had a really really good interview.

The expected goals thing for goalies is annoying because Talbot did not have great numbers last year but we still traded for him.

Talbot did what he has tended to do for much of his NHL career in 2021-22: Be reliable.

The nine-year veteran was tenth in the league in victories and was a pivotal cog in getting the youthful Wild to the postseason.

Talbot is a goaltender who has received Vezina Trophy votes on multiple occasions (including back in 2014-15 and back in 2016-17). He received an All-Star Game nod in 2022 and has generally existed as an above average goalie dung his tenure in between the sticks.”




If ownership isn't resolved in time and PD and DJ stick around, I really hope they at least clean house and get some new pro scouts and assistant coaches to show they are trying to correct mistakes.

which mistakes in particular are you referring to?
 

The Devilish Buffoon

Registered User
Dec 24, 2018
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Maybe, but being competitive should always be a priority. If it wasn't then he is doing those young players a disservice. They are professional athletes and need to be taught ownership, urgency, and accountability from the outset, not after 5 years of being allowed to develop bad habits.
I think they’ve been learning those things.
 

Bileur

Registered User
Jun 15, 2004
18,801
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Ottawa
I think DJ will be back, but on a very short leash.

I hate half measures like bringing someone back on the hot seat.

You’re just left with crap replacement options if you do it during the season.

Let him go, give someone else a real chance with the opportunity to build their offseason program.
 

Burrowsaurus

Registered User
Mar 20, 2013
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Talbot did what he has tended to do for much of his NHL career in 2021-22: Be reliable.

The nine-year veteran was tenth in the league in victories and was a pivotal cog in getting the youthful Wild to the postseason.

Talbot is a goaltender who has received Vezina Trophy votes on multiple occasions (including back in 2014-15 and back in 2016-17). He received an All-Star Game nod in 2022 and has generally existed as an above average goalie dung his tenure in between the sticks.”






which mistakes in particular are you referring to?
Right. But his expected goals numbers were not that great. And apparently Dorion and dj look at that sort of stuff. They were actually only a tad better than Gustavssons lol
 
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