Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[Mark Stones Spleen]

DJ's team performance defensively is not showing much progress:

Season. Games GF. GF/G. GA. GA/G
2019-20. 71. 191. 2.69. 243. 3.42
2020-21. 56. 157. 2.80. 190. 3.39
2021-22. 82. 227. 2.77. 266. 3.24
2022-23. 82. 261. 3.18. 271. 3.30

Goal differential
-52, -33, -39, -10

Gradual improvement


Depends on owner
One group might have people in mind and fire everyone immediately

Another group might evaluate for themselves over a year and not rush into changes.

5 on 5 differential
-27 (19/20)
-27 (20/21)
-28 (21/22)
-26 (22/23)

Our 5v5 results are the exact same today as 4 years ago when we were spending as little as possible. Young players getting better, added Cat and Giroux, we have what's supposed to be an in-prime Chabot + Zub and a stellar Sanderson.

And we still stink.

 

[JD1]

DJ's team performance defensively is not showing much progress:

Season. Games GF. GF/G. GA. GA/G
2019-20. 71. 191. 2.69. 243. 3.42
2020-21. 56. 157. 2.80. 190. 3.39
2021-22. 82. 227. 2.77. 266. 3.24
2022-23. 82. 261. 3.18. 271. 3.30

Given the increase in scoring... Highest scoring season in 29 years, those numbers kinda don't mean what they'd otherwise mean without that context.

 

[GCK]

Find me an example of any star player that criticized their current coach. I'll wait. It may have happened but it's extremely rare and there are many star players who have played for bad coaches.

Pasternak, Kreiji and Debrusk with Cassidy

Kadri with Sutter

 

[Ice-Tray]

Pasternak, Kreiji and Debrusk with Cassidy

Kadri with Sutter

The entire Sens team and Paul McLean after year two.

Sens team and Boucher.

It turns out that players will say how they feel to the GM in the exit interviews, or talk about it candidly outside of interviews and sometimes it gets out to the media.

Complaints or disagreements don’t always have to be players directly criticizing people to the media. I think most people in general don’t enjoy ripping people publicly if they can help it.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Pasternak, Kreiji and Debrusk with Cassidy

Kadri with Sutter

How'd that work out for the Bruins (who you swore would take a huge step back this year)?

Kadri has, right or wrong, a bad reputation.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How'd that work out for the Bruins (who you swore would take a huge step back this year)?

Kadri has, right or wrong, a bad reputation.

Boston fired Cassidy, and thus Krecji came back and DeBrusk then rescinded his trade request. Otherwise they don’t return.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

The only way that I am okay with Smith coming back as the coach is if Claude Julien and/or Jacques Martin as our associate coaches ready to take over soon as DJs patented November comes through.

 

[SquidNasty]

5 on 5 differential
-27 (19/20)
-27 (20/21)
-28 (21/22)
-26 (22/23)

Our 5v5 results are the exact same today as 4 years ago when we were spending as little as possible. Young players getting better, added Cat and Giroux, we have what's supposed to be an in-prime Chabot + Zub and a stellar Sanderson.

And we still stink.

This is what people don't realize. The power play pretty much runs itself when you have this much top end talent. The 5v5 numbers are a complete disaster no matter how you look at them and that's the biggest influence a coach can have.

I will give him credit on the PK though, it seems to be DJs specialty (ran it well with the Leafs too).

If ownership takes over too late in the summer and decides they missed their chance to make changes and run back DJ I will lose my god damn mind.

Lots of good options out there right now too with Julien + Laviolette.

 

[Micklebot]

5 on 5 differential
-27 (19/20)
-27 (20/21)
-28 (21/22)
-26 (22/23)

Our 5v5 results are the exact same today as 4 years ago when we were spending as little as possible. Young players getting better, added Cat and Giroux, we have what's supposed to be an in-prime Chabot + Zub and a stellar Sanderson.

And we still stink.

Might want to adjust for games played. Added xGF% and sv% as well, gives a bit more context to the numbers

-31.18 (19-20) 49.49 xGF% .916 sv%
-39.54 (20-21) 48.14 xGF% .907 sv%
-28 (21-22) 46.89 xGF% .917 sv%
-26 (22-23) 51.55 xGF% .907

Seems like there's signs of improvement that gets obscured by a couple things, namely goaltending and the way you presented the data without accounting for games played.

 

[aragorn]

It will be interesting to see what the Sens do over the summer, but if they change nothing they will still have a very good playoff team IMO with one exception. They need to fix goaltending & I would look to trade Joseph for Frederik Anderson. Also given how well the team did this season I doubt new ownership changes coaches or management unless they have their own plan.

This team would also be a lot better with Formenton back but who knows what's going to happen with him. A Formenton -Greig - Pinto line would be interesting. Greig might be a slightly better playmaker & offensive threat than Pinto & set Pinto up for that great shot. We already know how good Formenton can be with his speed getting behind defences. The 4th line is big, Gauthier is fast, Kastelic is tough & Sokolov could be a playmaker & offensive threat on this line. Sabo would be there when they require that role.

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
DBC - Norris - Batherson
Formenton - Greig - Pinto
Gauthier - Kastelic - Sokolov/Sabourin

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Chychrun
Kleven - JBD/Hamonic

Andersen - Forsberg/Sogaard

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Pittsburgh's situation was different with a contending team and 2 ageing elite star players who desired another opportunity to win the SC.

We are a team out in the desert trying to find a Moses to lead us to the promised land.

I see it as a minor difference. Hextall was GM when the new owner(s) took over December 31, 2021, and left management in place, until they gave them a reason to be fired. IF the new owners wanted to bring in “their guys” to take over, they could have done so a year ago, when-the Pens were eliminated from the playoffs.

Hextall gambled that Crosby, Malkin and Letang had one more deep playoff run in them, and it seems the new owners were sold that belief…. And Hextall decided not to Add to the roster, in any significant way, at the trade deadline. Failing to make the playoffs gave the owners suffice reasons to clear the decks and move on.


The Sens are a Team, Emerging from the Five Year Rebuild Desert, standing on the edge of the Red Sea, and PD now has to prove he can part the waters, next season, and make it to the promised playoff land.

The new owners will have to decide whether or not he is the one to continue on the path, he laid out and proceeded on for the past 5 years.


For me he has not given any prospective owner sufficient reason to quickly, as soon as they take the wheel of the Senators, to push the eject button and scramble to find someone to replace him. They would be wise to wait and get the lay of the land, get to know everyone of importance in the organization, including the players, and get as feedback for as many sources as possible.

 

[Loach]

It will be interesting to see what the Sens do over the summer, but if they change nothing they will still have a very good playoff team IMO with one exception. They need to fix goaltending & I would look to trade Joseph for Frederik Anderson. Also given how well the team did this season I doubt new ownership changes coaches or management unless they have their own plan.

This team would also be a lot better with Formenton back but who knows what's going to happen with him. A Formenton -Greig - Pinto line would be interesting. Greig might be a slightly better playmaker & offensive threat than Pinto & set Pinto up for that great shot. We already know how good Formenton can be with his speed getting behind defences. The 4th line is big, Gauthier is fast, Kastelic is tough & Sokolov could be a playmaker & offensive threat on this line. Sabo would be there when they require that role.

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
DBC - Norris - Batherson
Formenton - Greig - Pinto
Gauthier - Kastelic - Sokolov/Sabourin

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Chychrun
Kleven - JBD/Hamonic

Andersen - Forsberg/Sogaard

Classic. Take out Brannstrom and put in Sabourin. Lol.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Classic. Take out Brannstrom and put in Sabourin. Lol.

Sabourin doesn’t play defence , weird comparison.
He removed Branny and added Kleven. Lol.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Classic. Take out Brannstrom and put in Sabourin. Lol.

Delete

 

[GCK]

How'd that work out for the Bruins (who you swore would take a huge step back this year)?

Kadri has, right or wrong, a bad reputation.

Mind boggling how great they did after getting rid of Cassidy.

In my defence of Boston going downhill there are 2 things. First I had no idea the team was underperforming because they hated Cassidy, I thought he was a great coach. Second, we were told guys like Marchand and McAvoy were going to out until after Christmas not just a few weeks.

Glad I was wrong, I hope they bury the leafs if TO gets by TB.

 

[Loach]

Sabourin doesn’t play defence , weird comparison.
He removed Branny and added Kleven. Lol.

It was about the type of player, not the position.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It was about the type of player, not the position.

Lol , ok hope you believe that.
Most of us look at it as swapping Kleven for Branny.
You know 3rd pairing LD for third pairing LD.

Not 3rd pairing left vs 13th forward.

 

[Loach]

Lol , ok hope you believe that.
Most of us look at it as swapping Kleven for Branny.
You know 3rd pairing LD for third pairing LD.

Not 3rd pairing left vs 13th forward.

It was a joke. Sorry you didn't get it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It was a joke. Sorry you didn't get it.

Ahh ok, jokes don’t come over well in text.
Weird how you doubled down before saying it was a joke.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Chychrun
Kleven - JBD/Hamonic

Doubt Kleven will be handed a spot on the roster….. if he wins the job in training camp, then so be it.

Keep in mind that he will be on a two way contract, and that gives the Sens the flexibility to move him up and down from the AHL.

Keeping Brannstrom after his last half of the season performance makes sense….. developing Kleven in the AHL does too.

 

[Loach]

Ahh ok, jokes don’t come over well in text.
Weird how you doubled down before saying it was a joke.

I wasn't doubling down...I was explaining the joke. Would it surprise you, at all, for Aragorn to take a small player out of the line up and put in a "big, tough, physical" player, regardless of the fact that the smaller player is good? Any position, any line or pairing..this part doesn't matter. Like ...it's what he does and I love it.

 

[Cosmix]

I see it as a minor difference. Hextall was GM when the new owner(s) took over December 31, 2021, and left management in place, until they gave them a reason to be fired. IF the new owners wanted to bring in “their guys” to take over, they could have done so a year ago, when-the Pens were eliminated from the playoffs.

Hextall gambled that Crosby, Malkin and Letang had one more deep playoff run in them, and it seems the new owners were sold that belief…. And Hextall decided not to Add to the roster, in any significant way, at the trade deadline. Failing to make the playoffs gave the owners suffice reasons to clear the decks and move on.


The Sens are a Team, Emerging from the Five Year Rebuild Desert, standing on the edge of the Red Sea, and PD now has to prove he can part the waters, next season, and make it to the promised playoff land.

The new owners will have to decide whether or not he is the one to continue on the path, he laid out and proceeded on for the past 5 years.


For me he has not given any prospective owner sufficient reason to quickly, as soon as they take the wheel of the Senators, to push the eject button and scramble to find someone to replace him. They would be wise to wait and get the lay of the land, get to know everyone of importance in the organization, including the players, and get as feedback for as many sources as possible.

I like your biblical musings!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like your biblical musings!

thy?

 

[Snowwy]

It was a joke. Sorry you didn't get it.

Pretty clear what you meant.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Might want to adjust for games played. Added xGF% and sv% as well, gives a bit more context to the numbers

-31.18 (19-20) 49.49 xGF% .916 sv%
-39.54 (20-21) 48.14 xGF% .907 sv%
-28 (21-22) 46.89 xGF% .917 sv%
-26 (22-23) 51.55 xGF% .907

Seems like there's signs of improvement that gets obscured by a couple things, namely goaltending and the way you presented the data without accounting for games played.

Honestly, I should have used pace, didn't even think about shortened seasons.

We should add cap spend to these teams though too.

19-20 - we spent 71 mil including a shortened season by Bobby Ryan (7m), Callahan (5.8), Gaborik (4.8), McArthur (4.6m), and we didn't use LTIR on those ~20M (so a 51M spend team). Our 3 highest players played a collective 24 games. Our highest point producer was Brady at 44 points in 71 games. Our D was Chabot, Demelo, Hainsey, Boro, Zaitsev, and Reilly. Hockey reference shows our goaltending at .904.

Our 5v5 stats, after adjusting games played was within 5 goals of our current year. 31 VS 26. This was a team built for tanking, with a garbage defense, DJs first year as an NHL head coach, spending below the cap minimum, and the result is still almost the same.

Side note, That team was on pace to have 401.9 dzone giveaways. This year we gave up 402. So fundamentally, we are seeing a much better team with similar defensive issues 4 years later leading to the same type of 5v5 production. I'd say there's a problem there.