Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[DaveMatthew]

And what does that have to do with anything. Marc Methot was brought up to counter your statement that “When the players on a losing team "love" their coach it's a sign of a pretty big problem.”. He thinks the exact the opposite and I’d say he knows a lot more about NHL dressing room dynamics than anyone here.

Some coaches are loved because they're buddy-buddy with players and create a laid-back, expectation-less environment. Other coaches are respected because they help players win.

DJ is the former.

Jon Cooper isn't "loved" like a bud. Neither is Bruce Cassidy. Or Rod Brind'Amour. Or Pete DeBoer. Hell, neither was Jacques Martin.

Those guys win/won. They're hard on players.

Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews "liked" Denis Savard a lot more than they "liked" Joel Quenneville. But they won a hell of a lot more with Quenneville.

 

[Micklebot]

Some coaches are loved because they're buddy-buddy with players and create a laid-back, expectation-less environment. Other coaches are respected because they help players win.

DJ is the former.

Jon Cooper isn't "loved" like a bud. Neither is Bruce Cassidy. Or Rod Brind'Amour. Or Pete DeBoer. Hell, neither was Jacques Martin.

Those guys win/won. They're hard on players.

Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews "liked" Denis Savard a lot more than they "liked" Joel Quenneville. But they won a hell of a lot more with Quenneville.

That's quite the narrative you've created, sure, DJ created a a "laid-back, expectation-less environment"...

Good grief...

 

[DaveMatthew]

And how do you think adding Chychrun might have affected that (based on their stated methodology, it should have a significant impact since current roster was the biggest factor)? An article from Dec likely has some recency bias from the Nov-Dec skid we went through. Detroit at 10 shipped out a couple big pieces, I wonder if they still feel the same way about them after seei g them ship out Hronek and Bertuzzi?

14th on the aggregate on an out of date eval, but you doubt anyone on staff puts them in the top 10, idk, I think that's your bias showing.

Like I said, I follow a lot of national media coverage, they are pretty optimistic, both Dreger and Poulin just recently said they expect the team to make the playoffs next year. I don't go on sens Twitter so I'll have to take your word on whatever they are saying.

I'm optimistic that we'll compete for the playoffs too. Just like Dreger and Poulin. And over the next 5 years, I bet we'll make it a couple of times. Cool.

But the point of a 6-year complete tear-down and rebuild is not just to make the playoffs. It's to compete for the Cup. We're very far from that. There's no real line of sight to getting there, at this point.

There's a lot more work that needs to be done for this team to be an actual contender. And I have zero confidence that a Dorion and DJ-led tandem will get this team there.

 

[DaveMatthew]

That's quite the narrative you've created, sure, DJ created a a "laid-back, expectation-less environment"...

Good grief...

I mean it's true. DJ seems like a great guy. Super likeable. I don't doubt that the vibes are great and players like coming to the rink. I'm sure they're all pulling for the guy.

But is he a good NHL head coach? Is he going to turn this team into a contender?

No. It is what it is.

It's not like he's the first guy like this. John Paddock was a great guy. Players loved him. But he wasn't a good NHL head coach.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm optimistic that we'll compete for the playoffs too. Just like Dreger and Poulin. And over the next 5 years, I bet we'll make it a couple of times. Cool.

But the point of a 6-year complete tear-down and rebuild is not just to make the playoffs. It's to compete for the Cup. We're very far from that. There's no real line of sight to getting there, at this point.

There's a lot more work that needs to be done for this team to be an actual contender. And I have zero confidence that a Dorion and DJ-led tandem will get this team there.

Dreger and Poulin both said they expect us to make the playoffs next year, we have a young group that improving, Goaltending is the last piece that really needs to be figured out.

Take a look at NJD last year, doesn't take much to make a big difference and adding Chychrun really changed the dynamics going forward.

 

[Micklebot]

I mean it's true. DJ seems like a great guy. Super likeable. I don't doubt that the vibes are great and players like coming to the rink.

But is he a good NHL head coach? No.

No, it's a fairy tale you made up I'm your head, and given that's the type of thing you believe I really don't see us finding much common ground, that's one of the most loony tunes claims I've seen.

 

[DaveMatthew]

No, it's a fairy tale you made up I'm your head, and given that's the type of thing you believe I really don't see us finding much common ground, that's one of the most loony tunes claims I've seen.

Do you think DJ Smith is a good NHL head coach who'll turn this team into a contender?

Like I said, it's easy to like the guy. He seems great. But likeability doesn't win games.

 

[PlayItAgain]

Do you think DJ Smith is a good NHL head coach who'll turn this team into a contender?

Like I said, it's easy to like the guy. He seems great. But likeability doesn't win games.

Let me ask you a very straightforward question. In your opinion, did this years Sens team over or under achieve given the roster DJ had available to him?

 

[Micklebot]

Do you think DJ Smith is a good NHL head coach who'll turn this team into a contender?

Nice deflection. What I don't think is DJ created a expectationless laid back environment.

You want to argue he's a bad coach, have at it, I've got plenty of time for well thought out critiques of what he's done, but when you start making up crap like that I'm out. Have a good one,

 

[DaveMatthew]

Dreger and Poulin both said they expect us to make the playoffs next year, we have a young group that improving, Goaltending is the last piece that really needs to be figured out.

Take a look at NJD last year, doesn't take much to make a big difference and adding Chychrun really changed the dynamics going forward.

Really?

Because as far as I can tell, this team was at the bottom of the league in 5 on 5 goals scored and our bottom 6 is a net-negative on most nights.

We have some highly talented players at the top of the lineup. And they're awesome on the PP. That can't be denied.

But a lot more needs to be figured out than just the goaltending.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Nice deflection. What I don't think is DJ created a expectationless laid back environment.

You want to argue he's a bad coach, have at it, I've got plenty of time for well thought out critiques of what he's done, but when you start making up crap like that I'm out. Have a good one,

Drake Batherson played less than 15 minutes just once this season. He played 18+ minutes 54 times. I can only remember a handful of times when Giroux replaced him on the top PP unit.

Considering just how badly Batherson played in many games this year, and how little effort he gave in his own end, that's a pretty clear sign, IMO, that an environment of accountability didn't exist.

Think back to the Jacques Martin days. How do you think JM would have handled Batherson? There almost certainly would have been a healthy scratch or two and some pointed comments involved.

 

[GCK]

Some coaches are loved because they're buddy-buddy with players and create a laid-back, expectation-less environment. Other coaches are respected because they help players win.

DJ is the former.

Jon Cooper isn't "loved" like a bud. Neither is Bruce Cassidy. Or Rod Brind'Amour. Or Pete DeBoer. Hell, neither was Jacques Martin.

Those guys win/won. They're hard on players.

Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews "liked" Denis Savard a lot more than they "liked" Joel Quenneville. But they won a hell of a lot more with Quenneville.

You have no idea what the players think.

 

[Micklebot]

Really?

Because as far as I can tell, this team was at the bottom of the league in 5 on 5 goals scored and our bottom 6 is a net-negative on most nights.

We have some highly talented players at the top of the lineup. And they're awesome on the PP. That can't be denied.

But a lot more needs to be figured out than just the goaltending.

We were closer to average in 5v5 GF than at the bottom, league average was 2.58/60, bottom quarter of the league averaged 2.19/60 we had 2.40/60. About 10-11 5v5 goals over 82 game season would have put us as exactly average, not a lot of ground to make up there.

That's in spite of being 10th in xGF/60, and we've added Chychrun who should help, along with hopefully Norris not being injured all year, we were one of the teams most impacted by injury this year

That leads into addressing the bottom 6. we'll likely see Pinto pushed down by Norris, that is a huge boost to the bottom 6, we've got Greig who looks ready, another big upgrade pushing the likes of Gambrell and Brown/Motte out of the equation in terms of regulars (they're fine for 13th forwards). We should score more from the bottom 6 next year based on a couple thinkgs; 1. pushing guys like Pinto down to improve the players, 2. having a much better D group with growth by Brannstrom and the addition of Chychrun. Add in better goaltending and you're bottom 6 iosn't going to be a net negative anymore.

But even if you see the bottom 6 is an issue after Greig and Pinto, those next 4 guys are the easiest and cheapest to acquire. the top 8 is pretty darn solid, Joseph underperformed, but as a 9th guy with a bounce back year he should be fine. Gauthier adds decent depth, Kastelic has good potential if he can stay healthy.

So ya, goaltending is the only real issue, the rest is window dressing, its the stuff that changes year to year.

 

[Micklebot]

Drake Batherson played less than 15 minutes just once this season. He played 18+ minutes 54 times. I can only remember a handful of times when Giroux replaced him on the top PP unit.

Considering just how badly Batherson played in many games this year, and how little effort he gave in his own end, that's a pretty clear sign, IMO, that an environment of accountability didn't exist.

Think back to the Jacques Martin days. How do you think JM would have handled Batherson? There almost certainly would have been a healthy scratch or two and some pointed comments involved.

Batherson was our most productive player on the PP, he was dealing with long term issues from the high ankle sprain much of the year. Its the same crap all over again like when people were lamenting that Brannstrom or Sanderson wasn't getting used over Chabot on a PP that was top of the league...

You seem to think accountability starts and ends with what you as a fan can see, and think there's a laid back environment from a team that was second in the league in hits. Just because the coach isn't yapping to the media about his players doesn't mean he isn't holding them accountable in private.

 

[DaveMatthew]

We were closer to average in 5v5 GF than at the bottom, league average was 2.58/60, bottom quarter of the league averaged 2.19/60 we had 2.40/60. About 10-11 5v5 goals over 82 game season would have put us as exactly average, not a lot of ground to make up there.

That's in spite of being 10th in xGF/60, and we've added Chychrun who should help, along with hopefully Norris not being injured all year, we were one of the teams most impacted by injury this year

That leads into addressing the bottom 6. we'll likely see Pinto pushed down by Norris, that is a huge boost to the bottom 6, we've got Greig who looks ready, another big upgrade pushing the likes of Gambrell and Brown/Motte out of the equation in terms of regulars (they're fine for 13th forwards). We should score more from the bottom 6 next year based on a couple thinkgs; 1. pushing guys like Pinto down to improve the players, 2. having a much better D group with growth by Brannstrom and the addition of Chychrun. Add in better goaltending and you're bottom 6 iosn't going to be a net negative anymore.

But even if you see the bottom 6 is an issue after Greig and Pinto, those next 4 guys are the easiest and cheapest to acquire. the top 8 is pretty darn solid, Joseph underperformed, but as a 9th guy with a bounce back year he should be fine. Gauthier adds decent depth, Kastelic has good potential if he can stay healthy.

So ya, goaltending is the only real issue, the rest is window dressing, its the stuff that changes year to year.

I mean, I don't really disagree with this. We're close to being "average". But we should be much closer to being a contender, after 6 years, than we are right now, IMO.

And you can't ignore the Debrincat and Giroux's situations, which don't really fit in with the timeline you're presenting.

If we agree that the goal next year is to just make it in and get playoff experience, we can say that we're likely not "competing for the cup" until 24/25 or 25/26. At that point, Giroux will be 36/37 and Debrincat, based on Garrioch's reports, will not be here.

So in the next year or two, we need to:

• Find a good starting goalie
• Replace Debrincat in the top 6
• Accomodate Giroux in becoming more of a support player than a top-end driver (if he ages like Alfredsson, which would be great, he's a 50-60 point player in 25/26, not a 35 goal/80 point guy)

We also need to, essentially, rehabilitate Chabot and Batherson who had extended periods of significant struggles this year.

That's a lot. Can it be done? Yeah, I think so. Do I think it can be done by Dorion and DJ? No.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You seem to think accountability starts and ends with what you as a fan can see, and think there's a laid back environment from a team that was second in the league in hits. Just because the coach isn't yapping to the media about his players doesn't mean he isn't holding them accountable in private.

What "fans can see" is all I can base it on. After all, I'm not in the locker room. Could I be wrong? Sure.

But what makes you think that there is a culture of accountability? Or are you just giving him the benefit of the doubt?

 

[Micklebot]

I mean, I don't really disagree with this. We're close to being "average". But we should be much closer to being a contender, after 6 years, than we are right now, IMO.

And you can't ignore the Debrincat and Giroux's situations, which don't really fit in with the timeline you're presenting.

If we agree that the goal next year is to just make it in and get playoff experience, we can say that we're likely not "competing for the cup" until 24/25 or 25/26. At that point, Giroux will be 36/37 and Debrincat, based on Garrioch's reports, will not be here.

So in the next year or two, we need to:

• Find a good starting goalie
• Replace Debrincat in the top 6
• Accomodate Giroux in becoming more of a support player than a top-end driver

We also need to, essentially, rehabilitate Chabot and Batherson.

That's a lot. Can it be done? Yeah, I think so. Do I think it can be done by Dorion and DJ? No.

Colorado 2.62, Carolina 2.65, Dal 2.65 NYR 2.68
You don't need to be much different than average in 5v5 GF to be a contender, but the underlying stats all look very promising, top 10 in xGF, 16th in xGA and we've upgraded the backend significantly.

DeBrincat isn't gone yet, lets wait and see before we assume he needs to be replaced, but if he does, there's a return he'll garner and cap space freed up. Not sure what reports Garrioch you're referring to but if it's the boiler plate line he said then about being open and he'll take the next while figuring it out with family, I'll hold off jumping off any bridges.

 

[Micklebot]

What "fans can see" is all I can base it on. After all, I'm not in the locker room. Could I be wrong? Sure.

But what makes you think that there is a culture of accountability? Or are you just giving him the benefit of the doubt?

Exacttly, you can base your opinion on what you can see, a single piece of the puzzle, so maybe don't make outlandish claims about the whole picture?

 

[PlayItAgain]

Not sure what reports Garrioch you're referring to but if it's the boiler plate line he said then about being open and he'll take the next while figuring it out with family, I'll hold off jumping off any bridges.

The “reports” by Garrioch is his own opinion based off the few sound bites from Debrincat this am . Nothing more.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Exacttly, you can base your opinion on what you can see, a single piece of the puzzle, so maybe don't make outlandish claims about the whole picture?

Okay, how about this: I don't think DJ Smith has created enough of a culture of accountability or demands the attention to detail that's required for a team to make the playoffs and eventually, compete for the cup. I base this on several things: the team continues to be wildly inconsistent, certain players appear to have a much longer leash than others, and after 3-4 years, the key players we rely on are still bad (or unprepared) to play in their own end.

Better?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Colorado 2.62, Carolina 2.65, Dal 2.65 NYR 2.68
You don't need to be much different than average in 5v5 GF to be a contender, but the underlying stats all look very promising, top 10 in xGF, 16th in xGA and we've upgraded the backend significantly.

DeBrincat isn't gone yet, lets wait and see before we assume he needs to be replaced, but if he does, there's a return he'll garner and cap space freed up. Not sure what reports Garrioch you're referring to but if it's the boiler plate line he said then about being open and he'll take the next while figuring it out with family, I'll hold off jumping off any bridges.

Garrioch said that Debrincat, at this point, "has no inclination to re-sign". So that doesn't sound all that promising.

And again, I don't think it's impossible to turn this roster into a contender nor am I jumping off any bridges.

All I'm saying is that it's time for a fresh set of eyes to come in as GM and a new voice as coach. I don't understand how that's a controversial opinion.

Dorion got us here. He made some good moves, and some bad moves. DJ served a purpose. He brought some positive things, and failed in other ways. They're not owed more years.

On the coaching front, specifically, we need someone who can come in and help our young players play like polished veterans. Growth comes through discomfort. A new voice that demands more is needed.

Also, our 5v5 goal differential was -26. 25th in the league. The worst playoff team in the East was Tampa with +13. So we need to have a ~40 goal swing, at least, at ES. That's not going to happen easily,

 

[DueDiligence]

Batherson was our most productive player on the PP, he was dealing with long term issues from the high ankle sprain much of the year.

Ok fine play him on the PP but cut his minutes elsewhere due to his lack of defensive commitment. But as the other poster said that didn't happen.

 

[Micklebot]

Garrioch said that Debrincat, at this point, "has no inclination to re-sign". So that doesn't sound all that promising.

Sounds almost as promising as Zub is nowhere close to signing a day before he signed.

The days of Garrioch having valuable insight seem to be long gone, not going to put much stock into his musings.

 

[Micklebot]

Ok fine play him on the PP but cut his minutes elsewhere due to his lack of defensive commitment. But as the other poster said that didn't happen.

He got moved to the third line for a while. Coach also knew what he was dealing with regarding his ankle, accountability is about knowinf what a player is capable of and setting expectations based on that, if his ankle was causing him problems(all reports seem to point to it was) then you base how you treat the player on that. It's not like we had a better option for the top 6 at RW,

 

[DaveMatthew]

Sounds almost as promising as Zub is nowhere close to signing a day before he signed.

The days of Garrioch having valuable insight seem to be long gone, not going to put much stock into his musings.

Maybe. Although the "why wouldn't he stay" optimism sounds awfully similar to the "Mark Stone is close to an extension and of course he wants to be part of this group moving forward, he loves Brady" takes. We'll see what happens.

But your "we just need to figure out goaltending" opinion and then we're golden is pretty way off, IMO. Right now, Debrincat is a pretty darn big question.

He got moved to the third line for a while. Coach also knew what he was dealing with regarding his ankle, accountability is about knowinf what a player is capable of and setting expectations based on that, if his ankle was causing him problems(all reports seem to point to it was) then you base how you treat the player on that. It's not like we had a better option for the top 6 at RW,

Ah... it must have been the ankle that made him toe-drag at his own blueline and blow the zone the second the defenseman touched the puck behind the net...