Prospect Info: Filip Mesar

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Mesar has the goods 100%. It's consistency. If it's a matter of a shit team plus making the transition to NA then we're golden.

His upside is tremendous imo.

 

[gusfring]

Easily 100 point nhler.

 

[TomKosto]

Easily 100 point nhler.

Only 100?

 

[Wateredgarden]

Only 100?

Over an entire career.

 

[ZUKI]

Do you realize Koivu was 1.12 PPG in his second year before he got injured? Thats 92 Pts over a period of 82 games and in 1996-1997 he would of finished 8th in points if that happend. Last year's 8th place was Tkachuk with 104 pts. See how every road leads to Rome?

If you give a look at Koivu's career , you will see that he has been very good ( playing with m. October) at the beginning of most seasons and then that his production was slowly falling down . His style, his speed, his constant efforts were too much for his thin body. He wouldn't have been able to maintain his PPG , injured or not.

 

[themilosh]

Can you really ask for a whole lot more at the back of the 1st round? Getting a useful middle 6 or 2nd pair D is a reasonable ask but anything much better is a stretch.

Picks 20+ from recent drafts:

2013, best players picked at 20 or later: Mantha, Burakovsky, S. Theodore
2014: Pastrnak, McCann, Schmaltz
2015: Boeser, Konecny, Beauvillier
2016: T. Thompson (noone else over 100 career points)
2017: R. Thomas, Oettinger
2018: K. Miller, Sandin
2019: Tomasino, McMichael, Heinola
2020: Mukhamudullin, Zary, M. Bourque

Your mileage may vary and of course there is still lots of time for some of those later draft years to settle out but I see maybe four guys out of 80+ picks who would qualify as home run picks. Maybe add Thomas to the list, but that's still less than one guy per draft year who ends up as noticeably better than Lek or TT.

Uh i said "celing" would be Leks.. that means "if" he reaches his max potential. You dont draft 1st rounders in hopes they become a middle 6 seven years down the road.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

If you give a look at Koivu's career , you will see that he has been very good ( playing with m. October) at the beginning of most seasons and then that his production was slowly falling down . His style, his speed, his constant efforts were too much for his thin body. He wouldn't have been able to maintain his PPG , injured or not.

not necessarily true at all. He was great in the playoffs pretty routinely.

 

[ReHabs]

I asked @Bombshell11 for five names who met the following criteria:
Condition 1: Played in the CHL in the D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 2: PPG or below in their D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 3: PPG or above in the NHL career at any time (like they guarantee will happen for Mesar)

@Bombshell11 listed Martin Erat, David Krejci, Alexander Radulov, Tyler Bertuzzi, and as a bonus Joe Pavelski (who didn't play in the CHL and doesn't meet the condition).

I've inserted them in the table below.

If the player had PPG or below in their D+1 season that was a criteria success, if they had above PPG in their D+1 season in the CHL that was a criteria fail.
If in their NHL career they were PPG that was a criteria success, if they were below PPG in their career that was a criteria fail. But we know players take time to peak, so I added two columns: Number of PPG seasons, and Number of Nearly-PPG seasons.

Not one of the four players meets the conditions of the challenge. There was not a fifth player listed. Joe Pavelski was added as a bonus but since he wasn't in the CHL in his D+1 season he doesn't meet the conditions, he also doesn't meet the other conditions (but he did have a single season with a PPG of 0.99!).

Evaluation: @Bombshell11 failed to produce a list of even five players who meet these the three conditions he guarantees will happen for Mesar. Martin Erat was never close to a PPG player in the NHL, and the other names fail at the first test: they were above PPG in their D+1 season (they also fail in the subsequent tests).

Radulov had a phenomenal reputation in Jrs and not surprisingly he comes the closest, so that should be considered slightly beyond the high-water mark of Mesar's potential production ability. Pavelski is a tremendous player but even putting aside the different league in which he was playing, he was above PPG in his D+1 season which makes him a superior prospect to Mesar and an unlikely career trajectory.

Final thoughts: Good NHL players tend to produce no matter the circumstance. The best NHL players (PPG+) tend to have tremendous reputations in the lower leagues. Mesar is unlikely to become a tremendous (PPG+) player in the NHL given that he is having trouble producing in the OHL, so guaranteeing a 90pt season from him is just setting him up to fail. Mesar is developing and will hopefully become an impact player and valuable contributor to our NHL team at some point in the near future -- we simply don't need to be told we're wrong for not expecting him to become a PPG+ player in the NHL.

@Bombshell11 do you concede?

 

[Yasuo]

Bad quotes

 

[Bombshell11]

I asked @Bombshell11 for five names who met the following criteria:
Condition 1: Played in the CHL in the D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 2: PPG or below in their D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 3: PPG or above in the NHL career at any time (like they guarantee will happen for Mesar)

@Bombshell11 listed Martin Erat, David Krejci, Alexander Radulov, Tyler Bertuzzi, and as a bonus Joe Pavelski (who didn't play in the CHL and doesn't meet the condition).

I've inserted them in the table below.

If the player had PPG or below in their D+1 season that was a criteria success, if they had above PPG in their D+1 season in the CHL that was a criteria fail.
If in their NHL career they were PPG that was a criteria success, if they were below PPG in their career that was a criteria fail. But we know players take time to peak, so I added two columns: Number of PPG seasons, and Number of Nearly-PPG seasons.

Not one of the four players meets the conditions of the challenge. There was not a fifth player listed. Joe Pavelski was added as a bonus but since he wasn't in the CHL in his D+1 season he doesn't meet the conditions, he also doesn't meet the other conditions (but he did have a single season with a PPG of 0.99!).

View attachment 668243

Evaluation: @Bombshell11 failed to produce a list of even five players who meet these the three conditions he guarantees will happen for Mesar. Martin Erat was never close to a PPG player in the NHL, and the other names fail at the first test: they were above PPG in their D+1 season (they also fail in the subsequent tests).

Radulov had a phenomenal reputation in Jrs and not surprisingly he comes the closest, so that should be considered slightly beyond the high-water mark of Mesar's potential production ability. Pavelski is a tremendous player but even putting aside the different league in which he was playing, he was above PPG in his D+1 season which makes him a superior prospect to Mesar and an unlikely career trajectory.

Final thoughts: Good NHL players tend to produce no matter the circumstance. The best NHL players (PPG+) tend to have tremendous reputations in the lower leagues. Mesar is unlikely to become a tremendous (PPG+) player in the NHL given that he is having trouble producing in the OHL, so guaranteeing a 90pt season from him is just setting him up to fail. Mesar is developing and will hopefully become an impact player and valuable contributor to our NHL team at some point in the near future -- we simply don't need to be told we're wrong for not expecting him to become a PPG+ player in the NHL.

@Bombshell11 do you concede?

The essence of the conversation was about finding OHL D+1 players with similar production who became PPG (or close) with today's standards. No one said anything about career avgs.. if 0.8 was acceptable than surely 1.15 would be as well. Given that Erat played in an era where players produced at 80% rate of today's, you have to adjust his production for inflation then he fits the bill.

The second biggest problem is the sample size of D1 OHL players are extremely low, specially for 1st rounders.

Given that Mesar is already at the top of the list of a very small sample size, its easy to anticipate his success into the NHL.

Take the 2015 draft for example, they were 6 euro players drafted in the first round. None of them went to the CHL in their D1. It was either the NHL/AHL or back to their euro league and then NHL/AHL again.

As far as the CHL players go, who ever gets drafted from the CHL is already a 1.25-2.5 PPG player so yes if they drop below that then everyone understands it would be a disappointment.

Euro players have to adapt to the different style while developing at the same time. I would assume this is why they try not to send the euro players in NA if they're not ready for the NHL or AHL duty.

So its either the new habs management has no clue or they believe so much in Mesar's talent they're not worried about his development, they rather see him adapt asap and have him hit the league asap. Or they're just a bunch of morons

 

[ReHabs]

The essence of the conversation was about finding OHL D+1 players with similar production who became PPG (or close) with today's standards. No one said anything about career avgs.. if 0.8 was acceptable than surely 1.15 would be as well. Given that Erat played in an era where players produced at 80% rate of today's, you have to adjust his production for inflation then he fits the bill.

The second biggest problem is the sample size of D1 OHL players are extremely low, specially for 1st rounders.

Given that Mesar is already at the top of the list of a very small sample size, its easy to anticipate his success into the NHL.

The conversation was my attempt to offer you a chance to qualify your statements and avoid getting dunked on from other commentators. The essence of it was to hold your own words against you and see if they stand.

If you want to change the conditions of the statement, that's great and I invite you to do so -- but you said 90pt seasons, you said he's bound to be a star, you said a lot of things. You even guaranteed it - n'est pas?

Some remarks

Condition 2 is constrained by Mesar's relatively low D+1 production. Players who out-produced him (eg. with 1.15ppg) don't fit the constraint... because they're performing better than Mesar and if Mesar was performing at their tier there wouldn't be so much criticism. Understand? So you have to cap the condition at Mesar's D+1 productivity.

Condition 3 is constrained by what we all would think is a 'productive' NHL forward. I didn't need to list 0.85ppg seasons but I figured to make it a bit easier on you. You said Mesar would enjoy 90pt seasons, which is 1.10ppg. I opened the window to 70pt seasons (0.85ppg) and we still couldn't find anyone to fit all the conditions.

Martin Erat's career ppg (0.62) + 20% bump is still not 0.85ppg. It's around 0.75 which is a 60pt season in the modern, 20% higher scoring NHL (according to you). So not 90, not 82, not 80, not 70, not 65 pts but c. 60 points. A solid player but not one who commands anybody's respect or attention.

There are many players from the OHL who played their D+1 in the OHL. Our own Nick Suzuki did so. He didn't fit the conditions because unlike Mesar, he didn't have a <1.00ppg -- Suzuki in his draft year had a whopping 1.46ppg and in his D+1 year it was 1.56ppg. And in the NHL, so far, he's more or less a 60 point player.

So do you concede your hype for Mesar is not justified by any examples you could come up with? Take Nick Suzuki, who had 1.46ppg and 1.56ppg in the OHL, so far in his career the best scoring rate he's had was around 0.75ppg -- how is it that you guarantee Mesar will have a 1.10ppg in the NHL when he only musters a 1.00ppg in the OHL?

I said I'd honour the argument and I did my part. We evaluated the names and none of the examples you proposed fit the criteria. Do you concede?

 

[Bombshell11]

The conversation was my attempt to offer you a chance to qualify your statements and avoid getting dunked on from other commentators. The essence of it was to hold your own words against you and see if they stand.

If you want to change the conditions of the statement, that's great and I invite you to do so -- but you said 90pt seasons, you said he's bound to be a star, you said a lot of things. You even guaranteed it - n'est pas?

Some remarks

Condition 2 is constrained by Mesar's relatively low D+1 production. Players who out-produced him (eg. with 1.15ppg) don't fit the constraint... because they're performing better than Mesar and if Mesar was performing at their tier there wouldn't be so much criticism. Understand? So you have to cap the condition at Mesar's D+1 productivity.

Condition 3 is constrained by what we all would think is a 'productive' NHL forward. I didn't need to list 0.85ppg seasons but I figured to make it a bit easier on you. You said Mesar would enjoy 90pt seasons, which is 1.10ppg. I opened the window to 70pt seasons (0.85ppg) and we still couldn't find anyone to fit all the conditions.

Martin Erat's career ppg (0.62) + 20% bump is still not 0.85ppg. It's around 0.75 which is a 60pt season in the modern, 20% higher scoring NHL (according to you). So not 90, not 82, not 80, not 70, not 65 pts but c. 60 points. A solid player but not one who commands anybody's respect or attention.

There are many players from the OHL who played their D+1 in the OHL. Our own Nick Suzuki did so. He didn't fit the conditions because unlike Mesar, he didn't have a <1.00ppg -- Suzuki in his draft year had a whopping 1.46ppg and in his D+1 year it was 1.56ppg. And in the NHL, so far, he's more or less a 60 point player.

So do you concede your hype for Mesar is not justified by any examples you could come up with? Take Nick Suzuki, who had 1.46ppg and 1.56ppg in the OHL, so far in his career the best scoring rate he's had was around 0.75ppg -- how is it that you guarantee Mesar will have a 1.10ppg in the NHL when he only musters a 1.00ppg in the OHL?

I said I'd honour the argument and I did my part. We evaluated the names and none of the examples you proposed fit the criteria. Do you concede?

I have added some stuff into the post you quoted, i think they answer some of your points.
We cant take the draftees from the CHL as no GM is drafting a 1 PPG player from the CHL. Specially not in the first round.

There's really nothing to concede here as i consider this to be a win for me. I provided you players who had no past OHL experience (just like Mesar) who produced at a rate that isn't that far off from Mesar's (15% more, thats 6 more points, not a whole lot of a big deal) and who had PPG seasons. I also made sure to give those players a fair chance by adjusting their production for inflation.

Do you concede?

 

[ReHabs]

I have added some stuff into the post you quoted, i think they answer some of your points.
We cant take the draftees from the CHL as no GM is drafting a 1 PPG player from the CHL. Specially not in the first round.

There's really nothing to concede here as i consider this to be a win for me. I provided you players who had no past OHL experience (just like Mesar) who produced at a rate that isn't that far off from Mesar's (15% more, thats 6 more points, not a whole lot of a big deal) and who had PPG seasons. I also made sure to give those players a fair chance by adjusting their production for inflation.

Do you concede?

You changed the conditions and still can't find five names. Not even five.

Martin Erat has never had anywhere close to a PPG season in the NHL, much less a 90 point season.

What you expect everybody else to think about Mesar is simply extraordinary and unusual. It's not fair to Mesar, nor other commentators here, to have to endure your fantasist musings. There's a lot to evaluate and discuss here but you're not letting it happen and won't support your own claims.

Worse yet, your ungentlemanly manners in this duel where you were given the first shot. Shameful!

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I asked @Bombshell11 for five names who met the following criteria:
Condition 1: Played in the CHL in the D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 2: PPG or below in their D+1 year (like Mesar)
Condition 3: PPG or above in the NHL career at any time (like they guarantee will happen for Mesar)

@Bombshell11 listed Martin Erat, David Krejci, Alexander Radulov, Tyler Bertuzzi, and as a bonus Joe Pavelski (who didn't play in the CHL and doesn't meet the condition).

I've inserted them in the table below.

If the player had PPG or below in their D+1 season that was a criteria success, if they had above PPG in their D+1 season in the CHL that was a criteria fail.
If in their NHL career they were PPG that was a criteria success, if they were below PPG in their career that was a criteria fail. But we know players take time to peak, so I added two columns: Number of PPG seasons, and Number of Nearly-PPG seasons.

Not one of the four players meets the conditions of the challenge. There was not a fifth player listed. Joe Pavelski was added as a bonus but since he wasn't in the CHL in his D+1 season he doesn't meet the conditions, he also doesn't meet the other conditions (but he did have a single season with a PPG of 0.99!).

View attachment 668243

Evaluation: @Bombshell11 failed to produce a list of even five players who meet these the three conditions he guarantees will happen for Mesar. Martin Erat was never close to a PPG player in the NHL, and the other names fail at the first test: they were above PPG in their D+1 season (they also fail in the subsequent tests).

Radulov had a phenomenal reputation in Jrs and not surprisingly he comes the closest, so that should be considered slightly beyond the high-water mark of Mesar's potential production ability. Pavelski is a tremendous player but even putting aside the different league in which he was playing, he was above PPG in his D+1 season which makes him a superior prospect to Mesar and an unlikely career trajectory.

Final thoughts: Good NHL players tend to produce no matter the circumstance. The best NHL players (PPG+) tend to have tremendous reputations in the lower leagues. Mesar is unlikely to become a tremendous (PPG+) player in the NHL given that he is having trouble producing in the OHL, so guaranteeing a 90pt season from him is just setting him up to fail. Mesar is developing and will hopefully become an impact player and valuable contributor to our NHL team at some point in the near future -- we simply don't need to be told we're wrong for not expecting him to become a PPG+ player in the NHL.

@Bombshell11 do you concede?

Even good players can be screwed up by incompetent bumbling fool coaches. Was Caufield and Suzuki's non production under Douche Arm an indication of their potential? Which stats more accurately reflect Kidney's potential? His stats before he was trade or his post trade stats???

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

So what the guy loves Mesar, if he is the one guy who thinks Mesar will explode into a PPG NHLer let him,

St.Louis wasn’t even drafted.
Xhekaj worked at Costco,


Move on from bullying him. Every player deserves a fan who think he can be the best.

 

[WeThreeKings]

So what the guy loves Mesar, if he is the one guy who thinks Mesar will explode into a PPG NHLer let him,

St.Louis wasn’t even drafted.
Xhekaj worked at Costco,


Move on from bullying him. Every player deserves a fan who think he can be the best.

Or just put him on ignore like I did when I realized he was a troll on this topic and got everyone buying his Mesar will score 200 pts in the OHL shtick.

 

[Bombshell11]

You changed the conditions and still can't find five names. Not even five.

Martin Erat has never had anywhere close to a PPG season in the NHL, much less a 90 point season.

What you expect everybody else to think about Mesar is simply extraordinary and unusual. It's not fair to Mesar, nor other commentators here, to have to endure your fantasist musings. There's a lot to evaluate and discuss here but you're not letting it happen and won't support your own claims.

Worse yet, your ungentlemanly manners in this duel where you were given the first shot. Shameful!

You don't leave alot room for error. I find this a bit disingenuous. I think at worst my examples were 80% on point and at best 95% depending on the point of view.

I will take the win,

thank you very much sir

 

[ReHabs]

You don't leave alot room for error. I find this a bit disingenuous. I think at worst my examples were 80% on point and at best 95% depending on the point of view.

I will take the win,

thank you very much sir

You’re welcome to change the conditions that you agreed to in order to try again. But I won’t see it, and from the looks of it most other commentators here don’t see your posts either.

 

[MasterD]

If you give a look at Koivu's career , you will see that he has been very good ( playing with m. October) at the beginning of most seasons and then that his production was slowly falling down . His style, his speed, his constant efforts were too much for his thin body. He wouldn't have been able to maintain his PPG , injured or not.

I'd say you have bad memory. He was always money in the playoffs and on the last stretch to get there.

He also played with bad rosters most of his career, hard to PPG on those teams unless you're on McDavids level, which of course he wasn't.

He was insane his fist year before his first knee injury, really sad that happened.

 

[Hins77]

So what the guy loves Mesar, if he is the one guy who thinks Mesar will explode into a PPG NHLer let him,

St.Louis wasn’t even drafted.
Xhekaj worked at Costco,


Move on from bullying him. Every player deserves a fan who think he can be the best.

St- louis wasnt drafted causeof his size, but was still destroying the scoresheet at university. Nick perreault played with him and told me like, during in one summer, his legs becames larger than a three. He didnt been draft, but It was a physical hockey era and his case is pretty unique.

Xhekaj missed the opportunity the be drafted cause of the covid. But his ratio +/- is just insane and still has good offensive numbers. If he would have play in 20-21. 100% he is drafted in 2nd round.

 

[Bombshell11]

You’re welcome to change the conditions that you agreed to in order to try again. But I won’t see it, and from the looks of it most other commentators here don’t see your posts either.

Hey, i'm not the one who asked you anything so you're welcome to do what ever you want.

 

[danyhabsfan]

Bombshell11 is actually Filip Mesar.

Draft was July 7th 2022 and he registered july 21st 2022.

I don't think it's a coincidence.

 

[ReHabs]

Even good players can be screwed up by incompetent bumbling fool coaches. Was Caufield and Suzuki's non production under Douche Arm an indication of their potential? Which stats more accurately reflect Kidney's potential? His stats before he was trade or his post trade stats???

I’m not the one making projections and guaranteeing 90 pt seasons. We all know about externalities, it's not worth even mentioning them.

 

[Forsead]

You changed the conditions and still can't find five names. Not even five.

Martin Erat has never had anywhere close to a PPG season in the NHL, much less a 90 point season.

What you expect everybody else to think about Mesar is simply extraordinary and unusual. It's not fair to Mesar, nor other commentators here, to have to endure your fantasist musings. There's a lot to evaluate and discuss here but you're not letting it happen and won't support your own claims.

Worse yet, your ungentlemanly manners in this duel where you were given the first shot. Shameful!

I don't think Mesar will ever be a 90 pts player (unless the scoring get back to mid 80's level). However, I think we should be thrilled if Mesar get to Erat level. He was an offensively gifted player, in his prime he had 321 pts in 424 gp for a 0.76 PPG. The last 3 season of his prime was in a very defensive system, on a team that had few offensive weapons. He was a good two-way player and was seen as a good asset (Nashville got Forsberg for him !!!).

 

[Bombshell11]

I don't think Mesar will ever be a 90 pts player (unless the coring get back to mid 80's level). However, I think we should be thrilled if Mesar get to Erat level. He was an offensively gifted player, in his prime he had 321 pts in 424 gp for a 0.76 PPG. The last 3 season of his prime was in a very defensive system, on a team that had few offensive weapons. He was a good two-way player and was seen as a good asset (Nashville got Forsberg for him !!!).

100% i wont be mad if he produces like Erat with todays numbers.