Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[Hoglander]

Wish I could say I'm not expecting more age-gap 23-25 year olds as the targeted return, but I'd be lying. Aquillini wants help for the here and now, not 3-4 years down the line. Also, this management has been spending picks, I highly doubt they will stockpile picks with the intention of actually drafting with them.

sigh

 

[drax0s]

I almost feel like we have no choice but to go on a huge run here, or just lose every game, so we can pick a direction, even if some ppl are against it.

Doing anything half ass is just pointless

I think Demko's injury and weak start has kind of forced our hand this year. We no longer have stellar reliable goaltending that can outright steal us games and we haven't fixed out defensive core / system to even attempt to compensate. I think this year is basically a write-off because of Demko alone - he masked so many of this team's issues.

After that? Looking at all the things that have to go well for us to replicate the 2021-2022 season or even tread water (trade Horvat for a young 2C + defensive prospect, keep Kuzmenko, 2023-2024 Demko rebound, solid new coach) makes me think trading Miller is the most critical thing we can do right now. Miller's contract is the kind of thing you have for a competitive 4 year window (followed by 3 year rebuild) and we're wasting 2 of those years still fixing core issues. You can ride out OEL's contract after having 2 down years, but you can't with Miller.

 

[theguardianII]

Hopefully this means they will try to trade Miller too. Without Bo, this team is in the running for Bedard, IMO.

5 points out of the lottery.

 

[theguardianII]

Stuck with Miller and Boeser and end up having to trade Bo

This was EXACTLY what a large group of us here on HF predicted before Miller was signed. This is just Benning 2.0.

Next up: Petey will refuse to sign and we end up having to ask Quinn about his future too. The 20 year retool

If these people in the front office are smart the return on some of these players will reduce any rebuild. Ottawa is in year 3/4 and as good.
Buffalo is in their 3 o5th rebuild of the last 15 years. the most recent is 4 years old and they didn't have the high value assets to trade.
Would anyone trade Pettersson for Bedard? Hughes?

Trade a couple core roster players and trading Pettersson for Bedard or any of the top 3 or 4 picks might not be necessary.

 

[Luck 6]

Mikheyev	4.75	Pettersson	7.35	Boeser	6.65
Podkolzin	0.9	Miller	8	Garland	4.95
Pearson	3.25			Hoglander	1.25
Dakota	0.83	Lazar	1	Aman	0.88
Studnicka	0.76
OEL	7.26	Myers	6
Hughes	7.85	Bear	2.25
Dermott	1.5
Rathbone	0.85	Stillman	1.35
Demko	5
Martin	0.76
Ferland LTIR	0
Poolman LTIR	0
Estimated Salary Cap	86.5​	Mil
Total Cap		73.3875​	Mil
Cap Space		13.1125​	Mil

That's where we appear to be heading into next season with Horvat and Kuzmenko gone. Assumed some re-signings as well: Beat at 2.25m, Hoglander at 1.25m, and Dermott at 1.5m. Also estimated a 4mil cap increase, which based on my research, appears to be on the low end.

Having 13mil or so to upgrade the roster, plus whatever we get back in a Horvat / Kuzmenko trade, doesn't seem all that bad. A good defensive 3C and a top pairing RHD is of course the priority.

I suppose I don't really have a majority purpose of posting this other than to further the discussion. I see a lot of doom & gloom posts on our cap situation, and the need for a re-build, but when you break it down it doesn't seem quite as bad.

 

[Luck 6]

Kuzmenko can't re-sign until January, but I think in late December/early January you need to see where he is at and move quickly. If he is willing to sign a contract you are comfortable with by say mid-January then I'm good with re-signing him.

But if not - move him, and move him right away. He's not going to be a guy with value at the deadline so you need to jump the queue a bit here. Find a team that has a need for a top-six/PP guy to help them in the regular season. Plus, you can move him sooner since his contract is so low.

A pending UFA winger with suspect defensive skills and no playoff experience is going to have almost no deadline value.

The one part that will be tricky - I'm not sure how it works in terms of his bonuses. Could make a trade more difficult.

I could see Kuzmenko having more value than anticipated, especially if he is near or at PPG.

He still remains to be a bit of a "lottery ticket" in the sense that he could still continue to improve. Some teams may take a chance on that, especially when you see how a player like Panarin developed. Then, there's the low cap hit, where as essentially any team can fit him in under the cap.

I would think as a rental we should be able to get back a 1st and a decent prospect / roster player.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Man, with Horvat gone the Canucks are just a wasteland down the middle.

UFAs I would look at next summer:
Ivan Barbashev - Another Milstein client, could thrive in an offensively oriented deployment behind Pettersson.
Pavel Zacha - A guy the Canucks have been interested in before, playing really well down the middle for Boston right now, good defensive metrics, could be used as a matchup C
Pierre Engvall - Another possession beast who only sporadically plays at C, could be a fun bet at around $2.5M, at the very least you get a PK superstar with proven chemistry with Mikheyev.
Oskar Sundqvist - Big, right-handed, Swedish, good PKer, probably more of a fourth liner than third liner, but who knows.

 

[m9]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]4.75[/TD]
[TD]Pettersson[/TD]
[TD]7.35[/TD]
[TD]Boeser[/TD]
[TD]6.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Podkolzin[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[TD]Miller[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Garland[/TD]
[TD]4.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pearson[/TD]
[TD]3.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Hoglander[/TD]
[TD]1.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dakota[/TD]
[TD]0.83[/TD]
[TD]Lazar[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Aman[/TD]
[TD]0.88[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Studnicka[/TD]
[TD]0.76[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OEL[/TD]
[TD]7.26[/TD]
[TD]Myers[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hughes[/TD]
[TD]7.85[/TD]
[TD]Bear[/TD]
[TD]2.25[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dermott[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rathbone[/TD]
[TD]0.85[/TD]
[TD]Stillman[/TD]
[TD]1.35[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Demko[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Martin[/TD]
[TD]0.76[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ferland LTIR[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Poolman LTIR[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Estimated Salary Cap[/TD]

[TD]

86.5​

[/TD]

[TD]Mil[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Cap[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]

73.3875​

[/TD]

[TD]Mil[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cap Space[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]

13.1125​

[/TD]

[TD]Mil[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's where we appear to be heading into next season with Horvat and Kuzmenko gone. Assumed some re-signings as well: Beat at 2.25m, Hoglander at 1.25m, and Dermott at 1.5m. Also estimated a 4mil cap increase, which based on my research, appears to be on the low end.

Having 13mil or so to upgrade the roster, plus whatever we get back in a Horvat / Kuzmenko trade, doesn't seem all that bad. A good defensive 3C and a top pairing RHD is of course the priority.

I suppose I don't really have a majority purpose of posting this other than to further the discussion. I see a lot of doom & gloom posts on our cap situation, and the need for a re-build, but when you break it down it doesn't seem quite as bad.

Really? I think this team looks absolutely awful.

 

[Nucker101]

Really? I think this team looks absolutely awful.

I'd also love to see which top RHD will be available and is acquired by the Canucks.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Mgmt. Please. For the love of newborn baby Jesús.

 

[racerjoe]

I'd also love to see which top RHD will be available and is acquired by the Canucks.

LIVINGSTONE!!!!

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

 

[racerjoe]

Weird timing for this to come out then.

 

[VanillaCoke]

What a f***ing mess. Completely avoidable and predictable, yet we come out with players at all time low values, bad contracts, and wanting out.

Canucks cannot make the obvious decisions and instead shoot themselves in the foot at every turn, regardless of what mgmt team is in charge.

 

[Delocatedfan]

Id be ok with keeping Kuzmenko IF jrpa can trade one or 2 of Pearson / Boeser / Garland.

Main reason id be ok with him staying is he has chemistry with EP40 when they played together & it seems like they enjoy playing together.

With a Horvat trade & this draft being centre heavy at the top means theres a decent shot at drafting a 2c or 1c depending on what you view EP40 as

 

[MS]

They appear to have bungled the Horvat situation by lowballing him in the summer.

If you re-sign Miller, you can’t be letting Horvat-level players walk when we have nothing to replace them. The minutes Horvat plays are impossible to replace in UFA without a colossal overspend. If you’re moving forward with this group, this is a player that had to be signed.

Once they didn’t sign him in the summer, the Kreider-esque PP blip he’s on has blown his value through the roof.

Only way this turns out ok is if they could do a straight-up trade for a Wyatt Johnston or something along those lines, which is pretty unlikely.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Odds on mgmt waits for the “best offer” and Horvat gets injured before then?

50/50?

 

[M2Beezy]

I wonder if we retain 50% on Stillman if we can bring in some future considerations

 

[platotld]

So what's the mutual opinion on how to approach Kuzmenko?

I am of the mindset that we should be trying to trade him. His agent stated that he will not open negotiations until the season is done, if that is the case it would seem to signal that he isn't planning on re-signing in Vancouver.

Unless there is something our management knows that I may not be considering, I don't think we can afford to let this guy walk for nothing. We should be able to trade him for a 1st I would think.

better be a first

 

[Vector]

 

[wonton15]

Horvat gone; Miller and Boeser stay
Kuzmenko gone
Schenn gone

Petey upset
Hughes regretting signing
Demko never regains form

experience Canucks hockey

 

[Peen]

Rutherford previously said he didn’t want too many long term deals for players in his 30s, but then does not clear a single one out and attempts to add two

These people are insane

They appear to have bungled the Horvat situation by lowballing him in the summer.

If you re-sign Miller, you can’t be letting Horvat-level players walk when we have nothing to replace them. The minutes Horvat plays are impossible to replace in UFA without a colossal overspend. If you’re moving forward with this group, this is a player that had to be signed.

Once they didn’t sign him in the summer, the Kreider-esque PP blip he’s on has blown his value through the roof.

Only way this turns out ok is if they could do a straight-up trade for a Wyatt Johnston or something along those lines, which is pretty unlikely.

These guys would be huge fools to not trade Miller before his NMC kicks in given how unlikely it is they’re competitive in the short term.

 

[Vector]

 

[credulous]

pretty clear at this point that if there was a plan management is now well off it

curious where it went wrong for this management group. did they think it would be easier to move money and took it for granted they could free space to sign miller, horvat and possibly kuzmenko? did they plan to move horvat once signing miller but got caught out by horvat's hot start and miller's ugly start? did they panic sign miller once they realized no (acceptable) offers were going to materialize and are now scrambling? did they think horvat was deep into the canucks enough they could wear him down and get him signed to a lesser number?

 

[Peen]

pretty clear at this point that if there was a plan management is now well off it

curious where it went wrong for this management group. did they think it would be easier to move money and took it for granted they could free space to sign miller, horvat and possibly kuzmenko? did they plan to move horvat once signing miller but got caught out by horvat's hot start and miller's ugly start? did they panic sign miller once they realized no (acceptable) offers were going to materialize and are now scrambling? did they think horvat was deep into the canucks enough they could wear him down and get him signed to a lesser number?

i think it's becoming more obvious as we go what their plan was, and that was to retool within two seasons of his appointment.

rutherford said two years to turn around when he came aboard, but given how critical he was of different things, you figured that it would be a bigger and more serious turn around rather than this shifting pieces on the outside.

i get why they took the path they did (i generally believe any path or term you want to use can work given that you execute at a high level) but it needed a 90% hit rate to work on a high volume of moves of consequence.

they didn't shift enough players out prior to free agency. they stupidly gave boeser that contract. then they shoved themselves into a corner where their only path forward was to just win games. they had no flexibility if things went wrong - we are literally seeing it now considering they can't move anyone they want to and they can't even fire the coach they hate!!

i absolutely despised the idea of giving horvat a long term deal. i'd rather have miller at 7 years than horvat at 6 given their styles of play. miller's game seems like one that will age better. insane that they offered him 60+, but the fact horvat said no to that is crazy imo. should have done the miller thing and cashed in as soon as that offer is good.

he must really just want to move on, or they're attempting to bend the organization over a barrel given they have had all the leverage in the world for about six months now, beginning with the day they gave brock that high AAV that increased the internal cap structure. why would bo think he's worth only 1MM more than Brock? Why would he think he deserves less term than an older, less tenured, non-captain in JT? These things matter.