Fantasy Baseball Thread IV

[rangerssharks414]

Nola/Braun for Cueto/Leake was rejected, no counter.

Our cap is 260. I have a ton of guys who are way under league average and good, so that has helped smooth things out, but I agree that he's getting expensive, and at some point I should refocus. I'm not against moving him for Arenado, but this guy wants to use Arenado in order to get a top 10 SP, a good batter, and a third good piece, which is a little too steep for me.

He is offering Conforto + Arenado for Kershaw + Goldschmidt, which I won't do. I might see if I can get him to do something like Arenado + Conforto for Kershaw + Braun + Chapman, which was a package that interested him before.

Goldschmidt is more than a "good batter", haha. It sounds like he's being ridiculous.

I have Kershaw at $47 in a $400 cap league, but the rosters are 40 players. I'm going to start thinking about moving him soon. My team has underperformed again this year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think he is just wanting to sell really high on Conforto. Usually he is fairly reasonable, but he's operating under the assumption that I am completely out of it this year and looking to retool. My team is 2-5, but I have a ton of key injuries (until recently Nova, Matz, Taillon, Haniger, Braun always, Chapman, Marte suspended), and there are a bunch of teams hovering at 4-3, so a few decent weeks and I am right back in the thick of it.

He says he would do Kershaw, Braun, Chapman for Arenado and Nova. I think this is pretty decent value, given Arenado's keeper cost, but am I undervaluing Braun too much? I just think he's too risky to keep rostering/keeping. He has a low keeper cost, but I doubt he stays healthy. This gives me an elite player at a deal, for the best player in fantasy and an RP / injured player. I like Nova enough as a fill-in SP for the rest of the year.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I think he is just wanting to sell really high on Conforto. Usually he is fairly reasonable, but he's operating under the assumption that I am completely out of it this year and looking to retool. My team is 2-5, but I have a ton of key injuries (until recently Nova, Matz, Taillon, Haniger, Braun always, Chapman, Marte suspended), and there are a bunch of teams hovering at 4-3, so a few decent weeks and I am right back in the thick of it.

He says he would do Kershaw, Braun, Chapman for Arenado and Nova. I think this is pretty decent value, given Arenado's keeper cost, but am I undervaluing Braun too much? I just think he's too risky to keep rostering/keeping. He has a low keeper cost, but I doubt he stays healthy. This gives me an elite player at a deal, for the best player in fantasy and an RP / injured player. I like Nova enough as a fill-in SP for the rest of the year.

Braun is what, 33 now? Yeah, he's pretty injury prone like you said. I think I'd take that deal since I think you said that Arenado is in the low teens.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think I'm going to pull the trigger on this. It sucks to miss out on Kershaw's start today and his two-start week, but I think I am winning this deal in the long-term, since Arenado is such a huge bargain next year, and Kershaw is the only other keepable player in the deal at such a huge salary.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Joe Ross worth a pick up? I'm still rostering Dexter Fowler. Time to drop?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

My opponent got cold feet at the last minute about moving Arenado, understandably. Not sure what I can counter with -- I'd probably do a Kershaw + Braun for Arenado deal straight up, but I think I'll just stand pat for now.

I'd be cautious with Ross. He's worth a flier, but until he shows he can throw a third pitch, he won't be successful.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Yeah, the third pitch thing is a huge red flag for me. I still think he'd make a great closer.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I traded Conforto (and Aaron Sanchez) for J.D. Martinez last year when I went for it (I didn't win). I know that J.D. has been great since he came off the DL, but ugh.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've now become desperate to just unload Braun, and am mulling over whether to propose Braun for Leake. My gut says not to give up value for Leake, but my hands are tied since I'd like to move Braun for a SP, and I'm not sure he has enough value to make a bigger demand.

Another option might be to try and get Hendricks for him, or another pitcher who has underachieved a little bit. I have offered him to a guy who tends to like veterans for Quintana, but I'd be surprised if he takes it.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Kershaw/Puig
for
Arenado/Cueto

which side do you prefer? (yeah I know rest of roster might make a difference but)

Arenado and Cueto for me. I get that Kershaw is the best player in the deal, but the gap between Arenado and Puig is bigger than the gap between Kershaw and Cueto.

Following up. I offered this to a Dodgers fan who's been offering up stuff for Puig since the draft. He passed.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Mike Leake one-hitting the Dodgers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Now I'm being floated an offer of Odor for Braun (I get Odor). I have basically been streaming 2Bs -- started with Forsythe, then Hernandez, now playing the homer with Adam Frazier. Odor seems streaky, and maybe not worth moving Braun for?

Does anyone want to talk me out of offering Braun up for Leake? I know if I do it, Leake will have a disastrous second half of the year, but it seems like one of the only ways I can turn Braun into a reasonably decent pitcher.

 

[Evincar]

Now I'm being floated an offer of Odor for Braun (I get Odor). I have basically been streaming 2Bs -- started with Forsythe, then Hernandez, now playing the homer with Adam Frazier. Odor seems streaky, and maybe not worth moving Braun for?

Does anyone want to talk me out of offering Braun up for Leake? I know if I do it, Leake will have a disastrous second half of the year, but it seems like one of the only ways I can turn Braun into a reasonably decent pitcher.

If the Leake is the best you think you can get, you might as well keep Braun.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Now I'm being floated an offer of Odor for Braun (I get Odor). I have basically been streaming 2Bs -- started with Forsythe, then Hernandez, now playing the homer with Adam Frazier. Odor seems streaky, and maybe not worth moving Braun for?

Does anyone want to talk me out of offering Braun up for Leake? I know if I do it, Leake will have a disastrous second half of the year, but it seems like one of the only ways I can turn Braun into a reasonably decent pitcher.

You can do better than Leake. Braun did get hurt again, though.

 

[Virtanen18]

I've reacquired Michael Brantley, yay. Gave up Teheran and DeSclafani for the player I gave up with a 1st (Brett Anderson) for Carrasco last season.

Essentially just upgraded from Teheran to Carrasco in the end.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I pulled the trigger on Moncada for deGrom. Moncada was just rotting on my bench (no farm teams), and I feel like I could win the league this year. It is a limited keeper league.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I got lucky that one of my opponents didn't activate Keuchel off his DL.

And what should I do with Joc Pederson in a dynasty? He's been bad this year again, and he's hurt now.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Moncada for DeGrom is a good play. Not sure what to do about Pederson. My instinct is that when you start to sour on a player, it's best to just figure out a way to cut ties quickly, but that probably isn't great advice in a dynasty.

I've got a bit of a conundrum in terms of my lineup decisions today. I'm finally in a position to win a game, and I absolutely need this one in order to inch a bit closer to the middle of the pack. I'm winning by 70 points, which is roughly two very good pitcher starts. He has 3 starts left-- Duffy, German Marquez, and Porcello. I have 4 possibilities--Kershaw, Glasnow, Tomlin, and Urenas.

My first thought is to subtract the risk and bench Urenas and Glasnow, since either could be capable of serious negative points if things go very badly. But Porcello and Duffy are at least very capable of putting together strong starts, and I don't want to lose because I benched possible points. I'm confident that my lineup will at worst match his, and Kershaw should provide me enough points that these decisions won't matter too much. So what I think I'm settling with is just to go in full strength, and hope that if they aren't positive producers, they at least won't tank me with a terrible start.

 

[rangerssharks414]

What is your scoring system like? I think I remember you posting that it is mostly based on the three true outcomes (homers, strikeouts and walks).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, basically - the major important stats are those three. Wins don't mean anything. Outs/innings have some positive value, and hits against have some negative value too. Basically as long as a pitcher can get into the fifth or sixth, and not give up 3 HRs, they will not put up negative points no matter what.

I think I'm just going to press full speed ahead. I think Tomlin will put up an ok start, Kershaw a very good one, and Urenas a wild card, but likely not to be a total disaster. Who knows with Glasnow - usually he can get enough Ks that he won't put up negative points, but if he gives up the HRs and also has a short outing, he could really screw me over. I might put him on the bench, just because his upside is probably a weak 10-20 points or so that I shouldn't need. The forecast seems to suggest that the game might not get played, anyways.

My team really can't catch a break. Have Braun, Taillon, Hamels, Matz, Haniger, and Chapman all on the DL, and now Morton has gone down with some injury. Seems like Haniger and Matz will be back soon, but this just isn't my year.

Despite that, going to try and see if the last place team is interested in trading for Marte on a relative bargain. Offered Marte and Nola for Cole and Brantley - heavily slants towards me, and I think he likes Cole too much for him to do it, but maybe I can catch this break. Been such a frustrating season so far, and there aren't even too many young pitchers I can try to stash (Honeywell is already stashed, Giolito even).

 

[rangerssharks414]

Any thoughts about benching Glasnow tonight if you have the lead entering the night game? Tomlin pitched a complete game, and Urena was meh. Six walks...

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I probably should have played it safe and benched Glasnow, but lineups are by day, not by game, so he's in the lineup now. I have a 45 point lead or so, although Kershaw doesn't look like he has his best stuff against the Cubs, so this could get closer than I'd like. Still, he has nobody playing in the Mets-Pirates game, so unless Glasnow is world-historical bad, I should be ok.

Urena was great early on, but he completely fell apart after the third inning. I don't think there's any upside in keeping him, with a start against the Diamondbacks next time out. He's RP eligible, and I have Chapman on the DL for that spot, so either I'll just get some random RP for the week, or I might just take the 0 points and put Chapman back in (we have to start 5 RPs).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Of course Kershaw is going to have his worst statistical game of the season. Of course he is.

Lead is down to <20 points. Need Glasnow not to give up HRs tonight and everything should be fine.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

In the unlikely event that Austin Meadows is unowned in any keepers, I'd keep a close eye on him over the next two weeks or so. He's really started to heat up at AAA, and although his path to MLB is a bit complicated, he could start pressing for a callup as we get into June here.

Marte can return July 18th, which is far enough away that I'd be more bullish on his chances if it were not for Adam Frazier's hitting so far. He's one of the hottest hitters for the Pirates, and they basically need to find ways to keep getting him consistent at-bats, which handicaps the possible playing time for Meadows, unless Freese/Harrison were to get hurt or traded.

In any case, it's possible that he's unowned in some leagues where there are no minor systems, and so I just mention that he's worth watching to see if he can force his way into an opportunity at some point in late June/early July. I'm not going to stash him in my league just yet, but if he stays this hot over the next two weeks, I'll start to think seriously about it.

The obvious elephant in the room is what's going to happen with McCutchen. It's pretty clear to me that he's basically toast, and the Pirates are in the unenviable position of hoping he heats up in order to try and get something of value for him at the deadline. He's now hitting sixth in the order, and I have no idea what will happen if he continues to hit around .200. My guess with Meadows is that if he stays hot enough at the plate, the Pirates will find an opportunity for him before Marte returns, even if it's only a trial run for a few weeks. He certainly looked pretty ready in spring training, so I don't think he needs to stay in AAA all year, but it's also definitely a possibility that external circumstances will keep him in AAA until September.

Anyone have guesses as to which young pitchers might be the next ones up?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Quadruple post time!

There's no reason why I should consider hanging onto Urena, right? Especially if he's in an RP start and I can't really shield him from starts? I really like the upside, but I can't see him putting it together consistently, so he seems more like a scratch off lottery ticket for streaming starts, and not like someone you want to see if they'll put it all together.