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F Michael Misa - Saginaw Spirit, OHL (2025 Draft)

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Every rigorous study of the difference in quality of competition between the OHL and NCAA which I have seen suggests the American conspiracy theorists and fanboys are massively overstating the discrepancy. Most NHLe models I have seen have an NCAA point worth no more than 2 OHL points.

Mine, for example, has an NCAA point worth 0.191 NHL points, and an OHL point worth 0.144. So an NCAA point is worth about 33% more.

If somebody has something that isn't just tired "future cooks and cleaners" rhetoric, which applies just as much to NCAA players as it does to OHL players, I'd love to see it.
 
JoeThorntonsRooster said:
Every rigorous study of the difference in quality of competition between the OHL and NCAA which I have seen suggests the American conspiracy theorists and fanboys are massively overstating the discrepancy. Most NHLe models I have seen have an NCAA point worth no more than 2 OHL points.

Mine, for example, has an NCAA point worth 0.191 NHL points, and an OHL point worth 0.144. So an NCAA point is worth about 33% more.

If somebody has something that isn't just tired "future cooks and cleaners" rhetoric, which applies just as much to NCAA players as it does to OHL players, I'd love to see it.
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In the NCAA, they'll be future robber barons exploiting the cooks and cleaners in the CHL.
 
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If Sharks win #1 overall it's gonna be super hard choosing between Misa and Schaefer.

If Hawks win they probably go with Misa since they need another elite forward after Bedard.
 
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Wallet Inspector said:
If Sharks win #1 overall it's gonna be super hard choosing between Misa and Schaefer.

If Hawks win they probably go with Misa since they need another elite forward after Bedard.
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Weird logic. Applying positional need on Hawks but not the Sharks. Chicago’s young forwards (heavily carried by Bedard) are way better than San Jose’s d prospects.
San Jose is probably more likely to take Schaefer based on position than Hawks taking Misa because of position.
 
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JoeThorntonsRooster said:
Every rigorous study of the difference in quality of competition between the OHL and NCAA which I have seen suggests the American conspiracy theorists and fanboys are massively overstating the discrepancy. Most NHLe models I have seen have an NCAA point worth no more than 2 OHL points.
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Can you actually cite one example where someone said it was worth like 5X more?

You’re just making strawmen argument. The NCAA is quite clearly a better league. No one said anything more than that. No one has said CHL points are invalid or unimportant.

If anything, the only people saying anything more in depth are the CHL fans trying to do mental gymnastics to assert a league that is four years younger on average is as good or better.

And drop your ad hominem attacks against people who disagree with you. If all you can do is resort to calling people names, clearly you don’t have much of an argument and are just mad and lashing out.
JoeThorntonsRooster said:
Mine, for example, has an NCAA point worth 0.191 NHL points, and an OHL point worth 0.144. So an NCAA point is worth about 33% more.

If somebody has something that isn't just tired "future cooks and cleaners" rhetoric, which applies just as much to NCAA players as it does to OHL players, I'd love to see it.
Click to expand...
What is your model? Why don’t you explain it to us?
 
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I don’t believe ncaa vs ohl is a clear debate.

The ncaa has conditioning challenges stemming from its shortened season and rules around student athlete commitments. The ncaa also has a talent floor challenge stemming from having numerous independent schools with varying commitment to hockey. In the ncaa, while the opposition may be 2 years older, depending on the school, their talent level could be questionable.

In these mentored areas the Chl system is an improvement. The season is closer to that of a pro, the conditioning regime is closer to that of a pro, and the talent floor is firmly set via draft/closed united system.

I don’t think either league gets to wear the crown. Maybe in the future one does as things change.
 
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StlBigFly said:
I don’t believe ncaa vs ohl is a clear debate.

The ncaa has conditioning challenges stemming from its shortened season and rules around student athlete commitments. The ncaa also has a talent floor challenge stemming from having numerous independent schools with varying commitment to hockey. In the ncaa, while the opposition may be 2 years older, depending on the school, their talent level could be questionable.

In these mentored areas the Chl system is an improvement. The season is closer to that of a pro, the conditioning regime is closer to that of a pro, and the talent floor is firmly set via draft/closed united system.

I don’t think either league gets to wear the crown. Maybe in the future one does as things change.
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Yes. For every Boston College there is a Skyhill Skyhawks D1 team full of players who wouldn't have made an OHL farm team at age 19. NCAA players are older and more experienced but CHL players are generally faster and more skilled. The NCAA is a higher level of hockey because it is mostly older players who are fully physically developed but the difference is not anywhere near as big as people like PB make it out to be. Maybe that will change with the influx of CHL 20 and 21 y/o alumni who will raise the skill and athleticism floor of the NCAA quite a bit.
 
Bjorn Le said:
Yes. For every Boston College there is a Skyhill Skyhawks D1 team full of players who wouldn't have made an OHL farm team at age 19. NCAA players are older and more experienced but CHL players are generally faster and more skilled. The NCAA is a higher level of hockey because it is mostly older players who are fully physically developed but the difference is not anywhere near as big as people like PB make it out to be. Maybe that will change with the influx of CHL 20 and 21 y/o alumni who will raise the skill and athleticism floor of the NCAA quite a bit.
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Stonehill Skyhawks.

What is the difference in level that you think I'm asserting? Because I've been quite clear in my opinion. It's stated clearly.

And a check at the EP pages of Stonehill's top scorers reveals they were all top players in the various junior A leagues across NA (BCHL, AJHL, NAHL). Would they have been top CHL/USHL players in their age appropriate years? No, but the difference between the bottom of a CHL/USHL roster a top of a Junior A roster is not too much different, and obviously being older matters a lot. I don't know how it can be deemphasized. Slovakia U22 would destroy Russia U18. There's no real debate about that. Older, especially significantly older, means better. And the discussion about Stonehill is a little extreme. They represent nowhere near the average NCAA team. Just as comparing to the least talented junior team around wouldn't be a proper representation of the CHL.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
Can you actually cite one example where someone said it was worth like 5X more?

You’re just making strawmen argument. The NCAA is quite clearly a better league. No one said anything more than that. No one has said CHL points are invalid or unimportant.

If anything, the only people saying anything more in depth are the CHL fans trying to do mental gymnastics to assert a league that is four years younger on average is as good or better.

And drop your ad hominem attacks against people who disagree with you. If all you can do is resort to calling people names, clearly you don’t have much of an argument and are just mad and lashing out.

What is your model? Why don’t you explain it to us?
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Happy to answer any follow up questions. I’ve seen other NHLe models out there and have not seen as detailed of write-ups, but they follow a similar thought process and none of them have NCAA over 2x OHL.

Also, you are straw manning a straw man. I never said anybody used the term 5x but I have seen other posters state Hagens would be scoring twice as much or more in the OHL, and implying that the NCAA is twice as difficult to score in.
 
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Mathieukferland said:
Basically rolling at 3 points a game since Chernyshov has arrived, if it’s Chicago at 1 I’m taking him, his game and projection have really grown this year
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I don’t think anybody can really provide a convincing argument against that. Misa and Bedard would be absolutely amazing.

Could you imagine Misa-Bedard-Demidov? It’s shame Chicago is poorly run.
 
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If there's truly that little of difference in level between CHL and NCAA as people in here say, then we can all agree Misa is projecting, as a worst case scenario, to be a 40G/80P first line center, yes? But probably much better? That's the sense I'm getting here.
 
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Fyodorov said:
If there's truly that little of difference in level between CHL and NCAA as people in here say, then we can all agree Misa is projecting, as a worst case scenario, to be a 40G/80P first line center, yes? But probably much better? That's the sense I'm getting here.
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Yeah, 40/40 Tyler Seguin has been my comparable
 
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