F James Hagens - Boston College, NCAA (2025 Draft) Part 2

[Pavel Buchnevich]

As to Fantilli, check his stats with Marchenko and Voronkov, and all of a sudden it's like it matters who you play with. Eichel was 1C for Buffalo, Fantilli isn't for Columbus.

He plays the third most of CBJ forwards. He's a first liner. He's on pace for less than 50 points per 82. He's just nowhere near Eichel's level. Eichel played about 2 minutes more at the same age. That doesn't make up a 30 point difference.

The point is that he was never close to as good, and this is why you can't just look at who has similar stats. Some players who have better stats are not as good. Some players who have worse stats are better. Some players who have equal stats are not equal.

 

[Kshahdoo]

He plays the third most of CBJ forwards. He's a first liner. He's on pace for less than 50 points per 82. He's just nowhere near Eichel's level. Eichel played about 2 minutes more at the same age. That doesn't make up a 30 point difference.

The point is that he was never close to as good, and this is why you can't just look at who has similar stats. Some players who have better stats are not as good. Some players who have worse stats are better. Some players who have equal stats are not equal.

Fantilli is 8+9 in 18 games in 2025, he scored a hatty vs Toronto. It's not that bad I'd say. Now Leo Carlsson...

 

[wickedwitch]

Does any site list NCAA players' EV numbers?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Does any site list NCAA players' EV numbers?

@Favin, any idea?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Mr. Can’t Score Any Goals with snipes in back to back games.

 

[wickedwitch]

So I was frustrated with the complete lack of even strength stats available, so I created a script that scrapes uscho.com for the data. I haven't verified it, but I've checked a few players, and they were correct. (There's also some duplicates. Let me know if you see one.) I'll updated it manually a few more times during the season.

Anyhow, Hagens is 14th in EV points/game (minimum 15 games) as of today. The BC's lousy PP* is ~85% (albeit not 100%) of why he's seen as "struggling." If he could get to the top 10 in EV points (which is very doable, he's like 3 points away from top 5), I think that would be a good position for him.



I'll try to get past seasons for comparison, but they really don't make it easy.

* - There is no universe in which a team with BC's talent should have a PP ranked 46th (which is up from bottom quintile where it was a few days ago). I do not put any blame on Hagens. But I've already written a lot about my thoughts on the BC PP in this thread.

 

[Favin]

@Favin, any idea?

Try CollegeHockeyNews dot com

Use "Stats Customizer"

 

[JackSlater]

I don't fully understand why people are down on this guy. I've seen him play a few times, not going to pretend I am an expert on him, but he is always very good. That he plays with great junior aged players doesn't mean all that much to me in terms of negatives. His intelligence should translate, strong skating, seems easy to see him making it in the NHL in a high end role.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I don't fully understand why people are down on this guy. I've seen him play a few times, not going to pretend I am an expert on him, but he is always very good. That he plays with great junior aged players doesn't mean all that much to me in terms of negatives. His intelligence should translate, strong skating, seems easy to see him making it in the NHL in a high end role.

I think it’s hard not to see him as a long time top 6 NHLer. IMO the question is more is he a star, a superstar, a 2C.. etc.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I think it’s hard not to see him as a long time top 6 NHLer. IMO the question is more is he a star, a superstar, a 2C.. etc.

Yeah, this is the question. You want a future top line or star with a pick that high. I think people are uncertain he has that ceiling right now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So I was frustrated with the complete lack of even strength stats available, so I created a script that scrapes uscho.com for the data. I haven't verified it, but I've checked a few players, and they were correct. (There's also some duplicates. Let me know if you see one.) I'll updated it manually a few more times during the season.

Anyhow, Hagens is 14th in EV points/game (minimum 15 games) as of today. The BC's lousy PP* is ~85% (albeit not 100%) of why he's seen as "struggling." If he could get to the top 10 in EV points (which is very doable, he's like 3 points away from top 5), I think that would be a good position for him.



I'll try to get past seasons for comparison, but they really don't make it easy.

* - There is no universe in which a team with BC's talent should have a PP ranked 46th (which is up from bottom quintile where it was a few days ago). I do not put any blame on Hagens. But I've already written a lot about my thoughts on the BC PP in this thread.

This is awesome stuff, thanks for sharing

 

[Jacob]

Is he likely to return to BC, with Leonard and Perreault probably turning pro?

 

[wetcoast]

If you're like 20-30 points behind kids from other drafts and score just 8 goals, you'll have hard time to convince any scout you're a 1OA material. Maybe on a really bad draft you are, but this draft has some interesting kids.

Brady Tkachuk scored only 8 goals in his draft year in 40 games and doesn't have the 2 way game that Hagens does so focusing on goals is fruitless at best and kinda silly at times.

Is he a lock for #1?

I don't think so but it also wouldn't be agregious if he went #1 although I have him 3rd on my board right now behind Schaefer and Misa.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Is he likely to return to BC, with Leonard and Perreault probably turning pro?

Perhaps, likely has a talk with the team that drafted them and gets a sense of where they see him. I don't think he'd go Pro just to play in the AHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Funny about all these “is he a driver?” or “has he peaked?” “is he a first liner?” questions when the underlyings are now revealing that his ES numbers are elite.

That’s the best indicator you’ll get. I’m sorry, but I’ll take Hagens being an elite scorer at ES over your eye test about the eye test in the draft. Almost like we have years and years of data on Hagens. If the Oilers PP suddenly went quiet for 30 games, it doesn’t mean McDavid isn’t as good of a scorer.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Funny about all these “is he a driver?” or “has he peaked?” “is he a first liner?” questions when the underlyings are now revealing that his ES numbers are elite.

That’s the best indicator you’ll get. I’m sorry, but I’ll take Hagens being a top 10 scorer at ES over your eye test about the eye test in the draft. Almost like we have years and years of data on Hagens. If the Oilers PP suddenly went quiet for 30 games, it doesn’t mean McDavid isn’t as good of a scorer.

I think he’s a great pick at number 3. All the fretting, whichever team gets him will walk away really happy with the player they’re getting. Even if he goes third overall, I wouldn’t be shocked if he still ended up the most productive player of the class.

 

[wickedwitch]

Is he likely to return to BC, with Leonard and Perreault probably turning pro?

I think Hagens, more so than almost any forward prospect in recent memory, will benefit from the extra strength if he stays in college an extra year. Most players at his current weight play a more elusive game. Hagens obviously has the awareness and skating to be elusive when needed, but he chooses to go to higher contact areas of the ice often.

So I think he'll be able to play "his game" better with a little more added strength.

 

[wetcoast]

Kid is barely over PPG on a stacked team and I'm supposed to get wet?

Pass

Depends.

 

[Bonin21]

If Leonard can go back for a second post draft year, this kid is going to go back for a first post draft year. He will be a Hobey Baker contender next year.

 

[Fyodorov]

I think he’s a great pick at number 3. All the fretting, whichever team gets him will walk away really happy with the player they’re getting. Even if he goes third overall, I wouldn’t be shocked if he still ended up the most productive player of the class.

Yeah. Obviously this is a forum for people with a borderline unhealthy obsession on scouting amateur hockey players, but at the end of the day, all these guys are going to be picked very high and get every possible opportunity to succeed. And in the long term the message board chatter doesn't matter and the cream will rise to the top.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Obviously this is a forum for people with a borderline unhealthy obsession on scouting amateur hockey players

real sh*t

 

[Just Linda]

If Leonard can go back for a second post draft year, this kid is going to go back for a first post draft year. He will be a Hobey Baker contender next year.

I can't see any harm with him going back for a season. BC will be a beast next year, he's going to be playing great hockey.