F James Hagens - Boston College, NCAA (2025 Draft) Part 2

[Pavel Buchnevich]

As to Fantilli, check his stats with Marchenko and Voronkov, and all of a sudden it's like it matters who you play with. Eichel was 1C for Buffalo, Fantilli isn't for Columbus.

He plays the third most of CBJ forwards. He's a first liner. He's on pace for less than 50 points per 82. He's just nowhere near Eichel's level. Eichel played about 2 minutes more at the same age. That doesn't make up a 30 point difference.

The point is that he was never close to as good, and this is why you can't just look at who has similar stats. Some players who have better stats are not as good. Some players who have worse stats are better. Some players who have equal stats are not equal.

 

[Kshahdoo]

He plays the third most of CBJ forwards. He's a first liner. He's on pace for less than 50 points per 82. He's just nowhere near Eichel's level. Eichel played about 2 minutes more at the same age. That doesn't make up a 30 point difference.

The point is that he was never close to as good, and this is why you can't just look at who has similar stats. Some players who have better stats are not as good. Some players who have worse stats are better. Some players who have equal stats are not equal.

Fantilli is 8+9 in 18 games in 2025, he scored a hatty vs Toronto. It's not that bad I'd say. Now Leo Carlsson...

 

[wickedwitch]

Does any site list NCAA players' EV numbers?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Does any site list NCAA players' EV numbers?

@Favin, any idea?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Mr. Can’t Score Any Goals with snipes in back to back games.

 

[wickedwitch]

So I was frustrated with the complete lack of even strength stats available, so I created a script that scrapes uscho.com for the data. I haven't verified it, but I've checked a few players, and they were correct. (There's also some duplicates. Let me know if you see one.) I'll updated it manually a few more times during the season.

Anyhow, Hagens is 14th in EV points/game (minimum 15 games) as of today. The BC's lousy PP* is ~85% (albeit not 100%) of why he's seen as "struggling." If he could get to the top 10 in EV points (which is very doable, he's like 3 points away from top 5), I think that would be a good position for him.



I'll try to get past seasons for comparison, but they really don't make it easy.

* - There is no universe in which a team with BC's talent should have a PP ranked 46th (which is up from bottom quintile where it was a few days ago). I do not put any blame on Hagens. But I've already written a lot about my thoughts on the BC PP in this thread.