F Ivan Demidov - SKA St. Petersburg, KHL (2024, 5th, MTL)

[The Gr8 Dane]

Not bating whatsoever. I just think the comment was silly to suggest that Demidov, or most other players for that matter, has the same chance of becoming one of the best players of his generation as it is of busting. Very few players reach Kucherov’s level, while countless players end up busting. Those odds are far from the same.

Do I think Demidov will be a bust? Nope, but that wasn’t the point.

Its a fair point by you , Kuch just put up 144 points and multiple 100 point ones

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Its a fair point by you , Kuch just put up 144 points and multiple 100 point ones

That’s all I was getting at. Definitely not a knock on Demidov though as I think he can become a great player. I wouldn’t have been disappointed at all if the Ducks took him with their pick.

 

[Ford Prefect]

That’s all I was getting at. Definitely not a knock on Demidov though as I think he can become a great player. I wouldn’t have been disappointed at all if the Ducks took him with their pick.

I think I'm higher than most on who you guys did get at 3. Aside from Celebrini, I would have taken only Demidov ahead of him. He has a shorter resume, but when he grows into his body, with those mitts and vision and creativity...

To Mtl:

Sennecke
3rd rounder

To Ana:

Calgary/Florida 1st round pick '25 (lottery protected)
Harris
Sean Farrell OR Riley Kidney
5th rounder
$500 gift card to Gibby's
All expense paid evening at Chez Paree, private dances not included.


Who adds?

 

[bert]

Same chance of Demidov becoming like Kucherov

The most likely outcome he lands somewhere in between.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Not bating whatsoever. I just think the comment was silly to suggest that Demidov, or most other players for that matter, has the same chance of becoming one of the best players of his generation as it is of busting. Very few players reach Kucherov’s level, while countless players end up busting. Those odds are far from the same.

Do I think Demidov will be a bust? Nope, but that wasn’t the point.

A top 10 guy busts basically every draft ( or if not every draft ; often )

 

[bert]

I don’t agree. There’s a much lower percentage chance of someone turning into a Kucherov than it is a Filatov.

100 percent. Kicherov is one of the best players ever. Demidov also plays nothing like him. Any comparison to Kucherov is lazy.

 

[Kshahdoo]

100 percent. Kicherov is one of the best players ever. Demidov also plays nothing like him. Any comparison to Kucherov is lazy.

Yeah, it's better to compare him to Kaprizov...

 

[Drew4u]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

 

[waitin425]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

what are the reasons Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus passed on him? Has that been discussed by those teams? source?

 

[Stewie Griffin]

what are the reasons Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus passed on him? Has that been discussed by those teams? source?

They liked Levshunov, Sennecke, and Lindstrom better for their own reasons. If I had to guess:

CHI preferred an athletic RHD that has been playing close to them (easier to scout) for the last 2 years on an insane development curve
ANA has not been drafting Russians super high in the draft (that play in Russia anyway) and also get a big right shot (that they lacked) winger also on a late development curve with a strong playoff
CBJ was rumoured to be high on Lindstrom. He's a big, good skating centre, albeit with injury concerns. But we see profiles like this get drafted very early every year

Sure Sennecke was a shocker, but Demidov, depsite being adored by internet fans, was not a consensus 2nd overall talent. Yes he was a very good option to go #2 and was probably considered by all of those teams, but not a sure fire tier above the guys that went above him. The draft was wide open after #1, and we saw this play out.

 

[squashmaple]

what are the reasons Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus passed on him? Has that been discussed by those teams? source?

I can't speak to the other two as well as Stewie Griffin, but I can speak a little for Columbus here. They looked at their existing pool and saw a lot of wingers between 5'8" and 6'0" but only one big fast center over 6'2". They more or less telegraphed that Lindstrom was their guy from spring on, especially when the combine happened and it came out that they only took a three guys to dinner and the other two were projected to go well below 4OA (although one ended up going to the Ducks at 3). They specifically said as well that the trades lined up for their pick with Philadelphia or Carolina were contingent on Lindstrom already being gone. I'm sure there were other factors as well for those deals falling through, but their guy was there. You can't say Columbus shies away from Russians, either. They simply preferred the potential and fit for their existing mix of the giant fast center over the average-sized weird-skating winger.

 

[Michael Farkas]

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

A number of teams tried to trade up to 4 specifically to get Demidov. The Ducks do not draft Russians (they have taken one Russian skater from a Russian league since Stanislav Chistov in 2001).

I'm not sure what it means to "drop" to 5th overall (or 4th overall, as it might have been with a trade).

I'm not saying he's the lock of the century to score 100 points or anything. He could announce tomorrow that he's joining the circus...but I'm not sure about the implication of the post in general.

 

[DaPhazz]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

thanks for your input Drew4u

 

[The Last Red]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

I'm just curious, what team are you a fan of?

 

[waitin425]

They liked Levshunov, Sennecke, and Lindstrom better for their own reasons. If I had to guess:

CHI preferred an athletic RHD that has been playing close to them (easier to scout) for the last 2 years on an insane development curve
ANA has not been drafting Russians super high in the draft (that play in Russia anyway) and also get a big right shot (that they lacked) winger also on a late development curve with a strong playoff
CBJ was rumoured to be high on Lindstrom. He's a big, good skating centre, albeit with injury concerns. But we see profiles like this get drafted very early every year

Sure Sennecke was a shocker, but Demidov, depsite being adored by internet fans, was not a consensus 2nd overall talent. Yes he was a very good option to go #2 and was probably considered by all of those teams, but not a sure fire tier above the guys that went above him. The draft was wide open after #1, and we saw this play out.

I can't speak to the other two as well as Stewie Griffin, but I can speak a little for Columbus here. They looked at their existing pool and saw a lot of wingers between 5'8" and 6'0" but only one big fast center over 6'2". They more or less telegraphed that Lindstrom was their guy from spring on, especially when the combine happened and it came out that they only took a three guys to dinner and the other two were projected to go well below 4OA (although one ended up going to the Ducks at 3). They specifically said as well that the trades lined up for their pick with Philadelphia or Carolina were contingent on Lindstrom already being gone. I'm sure there were other factors as well for those deals falling through, but their guy was there. You can't say Columbus shies away from Russians, either. They simply preferred the potential and fit for their existing mix of the giant fast center over the average-sized weird-skating winger.

Agreed with both of you. @Drew4u was implying that Habs fans should temper their expectations, as "there was a reason he dropped to 5th overall". Of course there are reasons for a player not being selected, but perhaps it had more to do with team needs/preferences over just how effective Demidov is going to be. You guys essentially helped me in proving my point.

Demidov could be second best player from this draft, could be 5th, or could be a bust. Habs fans have no reason to temper our excitement. Many teams (according to Bob) had Demidov 2nd. We got him 5th.

Other teams should be excited about their prospects as well. I like a lot of players in this draft.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Agreed with both of you. @Drew4u was implying that Habs fans should temper their expectations, as "there was a reason he dropped to 5th overall". Of course there are reasons for a player not being selected, but perhaps it had more to do with team needs/preferences over just how effective Demidov is going to be. You guys essentially helped me in proving my point.

Demidov could be second best player from this draft, could be 5th, or could be a bust. Habs fans have no reason to temper our excitement. Many teams (according to Bob) had Demidov 2nd. We got him 5th.

Other teams should be excited about their prospects as well. I like a lot of players in this draft.

And if he becomes the best player of the draft?

 

[Bombshell11]

Demidov is a generational talent.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

One of the worst takes on here yet, bravo

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

One of the worst takes on here yet, bravo

Really ? A 70 point forward is an insulting result ? Lots of guys bust in the top 10 and even top 5 . That is hardly a doomsday type prediction.

 

[jfhabs]

They liked Levshunov, Sennecke, and Lindstrom better for their own reasons. If I had to guess:

CHI preferred an athletic RHD that has been playing close to them (easier to scout) for the last 2 years on an insane development curve
ANA has not been drafting Russians super high in the draft (that play in Russia anyway) and also get a big right shot (that they lacked) winger also on a late development curve with a strong playoff
CBJ was rumoured to be high on Lindstrom. He's a big, good skating centre, albeit with injury concerns. But we see profiles like this get drafted very early every year

Sure Sennecke was a shocker, but Demidov, depsite being adored by internet fans, was not a consensus 2nd overall talent. Yes he was a very good option to go #2 and was probably considered by all of those teams, but not a sure fire tier above the guys that went above him. The draft was wide open after #1, and we saw this play out.

From Bob Mackenzie pre-draft rankings :

It would be a misnomer to say there’s no consensus to be found in these rankings.

Demidov, for example, had nine scouts place him firmly amongst the top five prospects in the draft; Silayev, Levshunov and Lindstrom each had eight votes in the top five.

But as you drill down on the numbers, there appears to be a wider divergence of opinion than we usually see within the top five, and the bandwidth between Nos. 6 to 15 appears to be a lot tighter than we’ve seen before.

To wit: Five scouts had Demidov as the No. 2 prospect behind Celebrini but five others — three for Levshunov and two for Silayev — saw it differently.

It wasn't a consensus like Celebrini at 1, but most scouts saw him as the 2nd most talented player in the draft. On average he was the number 2 ranked guy. I believe Chicago and Columbus drafted for position and didn't see a large enough gap to justify taking Demidov. Anaheim loves to pick in the CHL and didn't pick in Russia since 2009!!!

Really ? A 70 point forward is an insulting result ? Lots of guys bust in the top 10 and even top 5 . That is hardly a doomsday type prediction.

Not sure why you (and others) suddenly need to put a 70 pts ceiling on this guy. Pretty much every professionnal scouts say he has one of the highest ceiling in the draft.

 

[TheDoldrums]

only thing I’m confident in is that he’s not NHL ready atm

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Really ? A 70 point forward is an insulting result ? Lots of guys bust in the top 10 and even top 5 . That is hardly a doomsday type prediction.

“If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle”

Not much of a reader, huh?

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Honestly Habs fans should expect perhaps a 60-70 point scorer who won't be good defensively.

Not awful for a 5th overall. If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle.

There's a reason he dropped to 5th overall and no it's not the russian effect.

Imagine dropping all the way to 5th overall of the 2024 NHL draft

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

From Bob Mackenzie pre-draft rankings :

It would be a misnomer to say there’s no consensus to be found in these rankings.

Demidov, for example, had nine scouts place him firmly amongst the top five prospects in the draft; Silayev, Levshunov and Lindstrom each had eight votes in the top five.

But as you drill down on the numbers, there appears to be a wider divergence of opinion than we usually see within the top five, and the bandwidth between Nos. 6 to 15 appears to be a lot tighter than we’ve seen before.

To wit: Five scouts had Demidov as the No. 2 prospect behind Celebrini but five others — three for Levshunov and two for Silayev — saw it differently.

It wasn't a consensus like Celebrini at 1, but most scouts saw him as the 2nd most talented player in the draft. On average he was the number 2 ranked guy. I believe Chicago and Columbus drafted for position and didn't see a large enough gap to justify taking Demidov. Anaheim loves to pick in the CHL and didn't pick in Russia since 2009!!!


Not sure why you (and others) suddenly need to put a 70 pts ceiling on this guy. Pretty much every professionnal scouts say he has one of the highest ceiling in the draft.

I didn’t put a ceiling on it . I simply said if he turned out to be a 70 pt guy that wouldn’t be a horrendous result .

“If he produces even close to Suzuki it would be a miracle”

Not much of a reader, huh?

Suzuki was nearly a ppg guy this past year . Try harder to make this outcome a terrible result …not much for details huh ?

 

[wetcoast]

And if he becomes the best player of the draft?

It's possible but also not likely and I really liked Demidov at 2 for the Black Hawks and have been high on him for some time now.