F Andrew Cristall - Kelowna Rockets, WHL (2023, 40th, WSH)

[FourQuarters]

He plays all three and Im sure hed be at his best as a C.

I can't remind even one game he played as a C

 

[Kevin Musto]

He plays all three and Im sure hed be at his best as a C.

I've literally never seen him play center.

When was the last time that happened?

 

[Mrb1p]

I've literally never seen him play center.

When was the last time that happened?

Good question, dont think ive seen him start at C this year.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

I think he’s been a winger for as long as I can remember. Not even his pre-WHL days did he play C.

 

[Peasy]

Can't play in the AHL until he's 20.

That goes for all players drafted out of the CHL.

No it doesnt.

Veleno wasn't 20 when he played in the AHL. You need to be turning (end of year)/are 20 OR play in the CHL for 4 years. WHL has different rules with their rookies that im not 100% sure on, so not sure if Cristall's first partial season counts as a year played.

 

[thrillhous]

No it doesnt.

Veleno wasn't 20 when he played in the AHL. You need to be turning (end of year)/are 20 OR play in the CHL for 4 years. WHL has different rules with their rookies that im not 100% sure on, so not sure if Cristall's first partial season counts as a year played.

Right, Veleno was given exceptional status and entered major junior hockey a year early, so he completed 4 years and became AHL eligible a season earlier than he would have become eligible by age.

I am no expert but I am pretty sure that the partial seasons that WHL players get at age 15 are not viewed as a full season in terms of getting closer to AHL eligible.

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[NotProkofievian]

Ranking Cristall outside of your top 15 is a sign of low T, time to get it checked, there are solutions.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Why has Cristall been falling off lists? He didn't even make Pronman's top-35 2023 prospects with the highest upside?

 

[Peasy]

Why has Cristall been falling off lists? He didn't even make Pronman's top-35 2023 prospects with the highest upside?

Not saying I agree with these things but:
Very small
Weaker skater than you would want for someone his size
Underwhelming playoffs and U-18s
People dont think the game he plays will translate well at the NHL level

 

[NotProkofievian]

Why has Cristall been falling off lists? He didn't even make Pronman's top-35 2023 prospects with the highest upside?

As the ''serious flaws'' thread has shown, I think the focus is too much on avoiding busts, and not enough on swinging for the fences. Cristall does have a higher bust risk, but I think people who have dropped him off the face of the earth overrate their own ability to call their shot, and are not considering the potential upside he has.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

As the ''serious flaws'' thread has shown, I think the focus is too much on avoiding busts, and not enough on swinging for the fences. Cristall does have a higher bust risk, but I think people who have dropped him off the face of the earth overrate their own ability to call their shot, and are not considering the potential upside he has.

Upside?

CHL scorer that doesn't know where goalie even is.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

High risk / High reward type and 5'9 not a good recipe.

Obviously worth a risk if he drops outside the 1st round.

 

[FourQuarters]

Cristall was constantly fixing his flaws, and he knew exactly where he needed to work on. When we talk about his style of play, we can't ignore Kelowna's situation this year, where he's been almost all of Kelowna's offense, Kelowna's head coach said he's their best penalty-killer, but he won't put him on the PK.
Cristall said he began to work on his skating, would like to see if he could really fix his skating.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Upside?

CHL scorer that doesn't know where goalie even is.

''All he does is score'' is my personal favourite prospect criticism.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Cristall was constantly fixing his flaws, and he knew exactly where he needed to work on. When we talk about his style of play, we can't ignore Kelowna's situation this year, where he's been almost all of Kelowna's offense, Kelowna's head coach said he's their best penalty-killer, but he won't put him on the PK.
Cristall said he began to work on his skating, would like to see if he could really fix his skating.

Dude is only a few mechanical tweaks away from being a very capable skater. Which would have landed him as a top 5/10 prospect in this draft.

His game is really a lot like Claude Giroux's, minus the grit and the one timer. But neither guys are burners (though Giroux was a better skater at the same age). They're both just skilled, smart hockey players who know how to use their teammates and the space their given. And while he might have trouble creating separation, I think his hands, anticipation, vision, and creativity are all good enough to be able to make offensive plays with minimal time and space at the next level. In terms of being able to manipulate defenders in tight, he's top of the draft. He passes through the opponents triangle so effortlessly and consistently.

I think learning how to win puck battles will be his biggest development challenge. Guys like Gaudreau and Giroux learned techniques to force turnovers, which is how they've created a lot of their offense over the years. I get the sense that if he doesn't have linemates who can get the puck for him, Cristall might struggle to be a consistent offensive threat.

 

[Leafshater67]

Why has Cristall been falling off lists? He didn't even make Pronman's top-35 2023 prospects with the highest upside?

Small, soft and slow. If you’re going to be small, you better be fast. A lot of people question his ability to translate his game against grown men. He’s a major boom or bust pick.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

If hes around at 23, Id like to see the rangers take him. We can allow time for development as our LW is pretty deep for the next couple years

 

[biturbo19]

As the ''serious flaws'' thread has shown, I think the focus is too much on avoiding busts, and not enough on swinging for the fences. Cristall does have a higher bust risk, but I think people who have dropped him off the face of the earth overrate their own ability to call their shot, and are not considering the potential upside he has.

The thing about "upside" is that you kind of have to contextualize it.

Fans always love these productive little junior scorers. Partially because they do often have a slightly better chance of becoming an "NHLer" than those often drafted around them with other significant flaws. As in, a better chance of playing at least a handful of NHL games at some point. But you have to sort of bracket in what their real "value" to your team is going to be, through a range of likely outcomes.


Like, i enjoy watching Cristall and certainly think he's worth the risk at some point. I'm actually quite high on him. The skill level and instincts are evident and that brings a really high ceiling. But he reminds me of something like a "poor man's Kaprizov". All of the strengths diminished, all of the flaws magnified sort of thing. That's not to say he can't continue to develop and improve, but it's exceedingly unlikely that he's going to become an "Elite scoring winger" like Kaprizov at the NHL level. Not impossible, but highly unlikely if we're being realistic.

So then you have to start to bracket in the more realistic range of outcomes.

At the lower bound, it's parsed by a very realistic chance that he's a total bust. Doesn't ever translate to the Pro level, maybe not even at the AHL level.

Then you've got a reasonably possible outcome where you have to ask, what is his "upside" if he becomes say, a 15G - 45pt small, soft, scoring winger and PP specialist who is generally a minus player defensively and overall? Doesn't contribute in any other real way outside of that. There's a whole range of reasonable outcomes clustered around that + or - a bit, all the way to those upper and lower floor and ceiling limits (which are pushed to extremes).

Like sure, that's a great pick at some point. There's a point at which even getting an AHL/NHL tweener is a decent enough result to build organizational depth. But if he ends up even somewhere around the midpoint of results...diminutive one-dimensional NHL scoring wingers aren't that valuable or hard to find. They're dime and dozen and available via trade and free agency every summer for very little. What's the "upside" of that?


So when you start to look at boom/bust as less of an "all" or "nothing", "elite scorer" or "total bust" and consider that it's more likely he becomes something in between those outcomes...I think it becomes more difficult to say he's necessarily got this incredibly high "upside". Then you do still have that potential of being a complete and total bust altogether to weigh against what you think that realistic reasonable "upside" outcome is. That's where these sorts of players can slip down the actual board on draft day, much to armchair GMs consternation.

 

[Hollel]

The thing about "upside" is that you kind of have to contextualize it.

Fans always love these productive little junior scorers. Partially because they do often have a slightly better chance of becoming an "NHLer" than those often drafted around them with other significant flaws. As in, a better chance of playing at least a handful of NHL games at some point. But you have to sort of bracket in what their real "value" to your team is going to be, through a range of likely outcomes.


Like, i enjoy watching Cristall and certainly think he's worth the risk at some point. I'm actually quite high on him. The skill level and instincts are evident and that brings a really high ceiling. But he reminds me of something like a "poor man's Kaprizov". All of the strengths diminished, all of the flaws magnified sort of thing. That's not to say he can't continue to develop and improve, but it's exceedingly unlikely that he's going to become an "Elite scoring winger" like Kaprizov at the NHL level. Not impossible, but highly unlikely if we're being realistic.

So then you have to start to bracket in the more realistic range of outcomes.

At the lower bound, it's parsed by a very realistic chance that he's a total bust. Doesn't ever translate to the Pro level, maybe not even at the AHL level.

Then you've got a reasonably possible outcome where you have to ask, what is his "upside" if he becomes say, a 15G - 45pt small, soft, scoring winger and PP specialist who is generally a minus player defensively and overall? Doesn't contribute in any other real way outside of that. There's a whole range of reasonable outcomes clustered around that + or - a bit, all the way to those upper and lower floor and ceiling limits (which are pushed to extremes).

Like sure, that's a great pick at some point. There's a point at which even getting an AHL/NHL tweener is a decent enough result to build organizational depth. But if he ends up even somewhere around the midpoint of results...diminutive one-dimensional NHL scoring wingers aren't that valuable or hard to find. They're dime and dozen and available via trade and free agency every summer for very little. What's the "upside" of that?


So when you start to look at boom/bust as less of an "all" or "nothing", "elite scorer" or "total bust" and consider that it's more likely he becomes something in between those outcomes...I think it becomes more difficult to say he's necessarily got this incredibly high "upside". Then you do still have that potential of being a complete and total bust altogether to weigh against what you think that realistic reasonable "upside" outcome is. That's where these sorts of players can slip down the actual board on draft day, much to armchair GMs consternation.

Well said

 

[DatDude44]

Interesting that a guy like perfetti still went 10th overall with pretty much the same concerns as cristall being the lack of size and skating combination, yet cristall is now a projected late 1st or 2nd rounder.

I know they're a little different, but both extremely high IQ, high skill, great vision, assist artist etc.... It'd be tough for me to not want my blues to nab him iwth one of their two late 1sts if he's still on the board.

 

[Hallzy]

I wouldn't blink if the Canucks took him with their 1st, I think this kid is gonna be dynamite

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Interesting that a guy like perfetti still went 10th overall with pretty much the same concerns as cristall being the lack of size and skating combination, yet cristall is now a projected late 1st or 2nd rounder.

I know they're a little different, but both extremely high IQ, high skill, great vision, assist artist etc.... It'd be tough for me to not want my blues to nab him iwth one of their two late 1sts if he's still on the board.

although not much, Perfetti was a bit bigger and more productive than Cristall was and he dominated the U18's where as Cristall struggled a bit.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Interesting that a guy like perfetti still went 10th overall with pretty much the same concerns as cristall being the lack of size and skating combination, yet cristall is now a projected late 1st or 2nd rounder.

I know they're a little different, but both extremely high IQ, high skill, great vision, assist artist etc.... It'd be tough for me to not want my blues to nab him iwth one of their two late 1sts if he's still on the board.

Cristall > Perfetti

 

[Hollel]

although not much, Perfetti was a bit bigger and more productive than Cristall was and he dominated the U18's where as Cristall struggled a bit.

Also , just from what I remember for Perfetti as a prospect, I think his skating was a little less of a ? with that slight build advantage + better goal scoring upside(?). Also less compete concerns. Which when you’re talking about undersized players become very important margins. Not saying anything is reality though, and if a team believes in the skating mechanics being sound and just needing more strength, he is basically an easy lottery talent that might be available past 15