F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[daver]

The junior hockey landscape isn't completely dominated by the OHL anymore, there are plenty of worthwhile programs across the country including the Q.

The Q has been able to churn out elite talent at an impressive rate over the last decade. Currently out of the top 30 players in ppg: six are from the Q, seven are from the O, one from the W, three from the NCAA, and thirteen played juniors overseas. This is consistent with the last number of years. Bottom line is that the Q produces top-end talent and Lafreniere is only further proof of that.

More telling is how the top prospects have fared in the NHL in relation to their relative dominance in whatever league they are in.

 

[ijuka]

The junior hockey landscape isn't completely dominated by the OHL anymore, there are plenty of worthwhile programs across the country including the Q.

The Q has been able to churn out elite talent at an impressive rate over the last decade. Currently out of the top 30 players in ppg: six are from the Q, seven are from the O, one from the W, three from the NCAA, and thirteen played juniors overseas. This is consistent with the last number of years. Bottom line is that the Q produces top-end talent and Lafreniere is only further proof of that.

It's not about the top level talent in this case, though. It's about the difficulty of every opponent he faces on a day to day basis. Which means, the overall talent level of QMJHL. The rare, few top level talents, especially historical ones, are largely irrelevant for this topic.

 

[BondraTime]

It's not about the top level talent in this case, though. It's about the difficulty of every opponent he faces on a day to day basis. Which means, the overall talent level of QMJHL. The rare, few top level talents, especially historical ones, are largely irrelevant for this topic.

So you think Byfield would have many more points playing in the Q, and Lafreniere would have fewer points playing in the O?

 

[newfy]

It's not about the top level talent in this case, though. It's about the difficulty of every opponent he faces on a day to day basis. Which means, the overall talent level of QMJHL. The rare, few top level talents, especially historical ones, are largely irrelevant for this topic.

Is the topic that OHL is a better league than the Q or is it that the O produces more elite NHLers because their sscoring translates better/scoring in the OHL is harder?

I think anymore, the Q is producing very similar high end talent to the OHL. I think the rare, few top level talents are pretty relevant to this topic since it looks like Lafreniere is one of those players.

 

[ijuka]

Is the topic that OHL is a better league than the Q or is it that the O produces more elite NHLers because their sscoring translates better/scoring in the OHL is harder?

Well, I personally was talking about scoring in OHL being more impressive than scoring in QMJHL due to the league being stronger.

I think anymore, the Q is producing very similar high end talent to the OHL. I think the rare, few top level talents are pretty relevant to this topic since it looks like Lafreniere is one of those players.

And you missed the point.

 

[newfy]

Well, I personally was talking about scoring in OHL being more impressive than scoring in QMJHL due to the league being stronger.And you missed the point.

I didnt miss the point, you did a weak job of making one. Are you just talking about league scoring in general? If so, I would agree about the OHL being a bit tougher to score in overall and when we're talking about later first rounders and things like that I might give their scoring more credit in the OHL.

Then you turn around and say the rare top talents are irrelevant for this topic. Except for the fact that Lafreniere is one of those rare talents and this argument about Q scoring started with trying to compare him across leagues. So if the rare talents are irrelevant to your argument, why are you using this argument in a Lafreniere thread? The Q's high end talent has been challenging Ontarios for a while now and the league scoring numbers are irrelevant for the rare talents so what is your point?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Brings up a flawed point....decides the logical counter to that point is irrelevant because it doesn't make you right. Sounds about how these things go.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I don’t necessarily agree but I think the point is more that the presence of elite prospects from either league isn’t relevant to the fact that one league has an overall higher level of talent. Ie an elite prospect from OHL plays against average better players than the elite guy from the Q, so the OHL performance is more impressive. The fact that overall the Q has just as many elite prospects as the OHL that get drafted high isn’t relevant to that argument, because it’s not about the elite guys, it’s about the average QoL the elite guys go against.

not sure that I buy it, but I think that’s the argument.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Brings up a flawed point....decides the logical counter to that point is irrelevant because it doesn't make you right. Sounds about how these things go.

It’s the HF way.

 

[ijuka]

Brings up a flawed point....decides the logical counter to that point is irrelevant because it doesn't make you right. Sounds about how these things go.

No, it's not the logical counter, because I was talking about the level of the general mass in the league, not the stars seldomly appearing every few years. How do those affect Lafreniere's opposition right here and now? How does Nico Hischier, for instance, affect Lafreniere's opposition this season? Even if Hischier or MacKinnon or even Crosby had been in the league this season, it's just one player on one team.

You not understanding my point doesn't make it flawed.

 

[Gillings]

What is the “10a” I see??? I’m guessing a prospect ranking? Where from???

First Overall.

1 O A

1OA

 

[Vachon23]

 

[Mark Edwards]

The Q has held its own in terms of Memorial Cup performances for quite awhile now. Any evidence to back up a claim that an OHL prospect > a Q prospect despite similar offensive resumes?

It's not about comparing Memorial Cup winners. Any team can mortgage their future to go for it.

Go watch some QMJHL games to see the severe lack of skill on many teams and check the Q rosters to see where the players are from. Ontario kids who couldn't play in the OHL and in some cases barely in the OJHL are making Q rosters. Q team staffers are well aware of this and have agreed with myself and other NHL scouts. They know that they simply have too many teams for their draft area to supply. Some great players come out of the Q and I scout there often, but there are also some VERY weak players in the Q. It doesn't make the great Q players inferior to great OHL players, but they do play against many weaker opponents on a year to year basis.

As for the WHL, an NHL scout put it this way over the weekend when a group of scouts were talking about the three leagues - "Not all that much skill but it's the most physical league of the three by far."

 

[Nabrules]

Great you’ve got one example. Let’s see some more if it’s not rare.

Also Patrick dropped because he had an awful draft season. Clearly not the case with Lafreniere.

Going through the pages it’s just posters like you trying to come up with “hot takes” and predictions of someone else going 1st overall like what happens every season. Anyone else remember when Kakko, Seguin, Hedman, Eichel, Doughty, Laine and Murray were also going 1st overall according to some people?

It’s not about having a certain player at 1 just for the sake of conversation. It’s about having the player who you think will have the best career at number 1. In a redraft Seguin, Hedman and Doughty May go 1 depending on the team so those people were right.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It’s not about having a certain player at 1 just for the sake of conversation. It’s about having the player who you think will have the best career at number 1. In a redraft Seguin, Hedman and Doughty May go 1 depending on the team so those people were right.

That’s not what we’re talking about. We’re talking about who we think will go first, not who will have a better career, because that’s entirely unknown.

 

[daver]

No, it's not the logical counter, because I was talking about the level of the general mass in the league, not the stars seldomly appearing every few years. How do those affect Lafreniere's opposition right here and now? How does Nico Hischier, for instance, affect Lafreniere's opposition this season? Even if Hischier or MacKinnon or even Crosby had been in the league this season, it's just one player on one team.

You not understanding my point doesn't make it flawed.

So where are the clear examples that the best prospects over the years from the OHL have done better than the best prospects from the Q despite showing similar levels of domination?

This is your point right? That we need to handicap Lafreniere's #'s because it is clear they are boosted by playing in the Q.

 

[jj cale]

So where are the clear examples that the best prospects over the years from the OHL have done better than the best prospects from the Q despite showing similar levels of domination?

This is your point right? That we need to handicap Lafreniere's #'s because it is clear they are boosted by playing in the Q.

I think he would be better served just watching Lafreniere play and make his judgements on his skill set rather then decide based on what league he plays in. The league you play in only means so much, not saying it's irrelevant but it's far from the deciding factor on a prospects abilities. I mean, liga is a far better league then the Q and kakko did well in it last year but it hasn't meant anything for him as a prospect in the NHL this year.

 

[tony d]

I think this guy would play well wherever. Such a talented player.

 

[Sparty]

What is the defense even doing here?

 

[Fixxer]

What is the defense even doing here?

The play-to-play was accurate. After the goal, he said it was an easy goal for Lafrenière and that the Foreur's players watched him skate.

 

[Oddbob]

What is the defense even doing here?

Looks like quality Red Wing defence to me. We should sign those 2 guys.

 

[Frank Drebin]

What is the defense even doing here?

lmao, the LD moved out of his way to cover the pass behind the net

 

[NYIschremp44]

It's not about comparing Memorial Cup winners. Any team can mortgage their future to go for it.

Go watch some QMJHL games to see the severe lack of skill on many teams and check the Q rosters to see where the players are from. Ontario kids who couldn't play in the OHL and in some cases barely in the OJHL are making Q rosters. Q team staffers are well aware of this and have agreed with myself and other NHL scouts. They know that they simply have too many teams for their draft area to supply. Some great players come out of the Q and I scout there often, but there are also some VERY weak players in the Q. It doesn't make the great Q players inferior to great OHL players, but they do play against many weaker opponents on a year to year basis.

As for the WHL, an NHL scout put it this way over the weekend when a group of scouts were talking about the three leagues - "Not all that much skill but it's the most physical league of the three by far."

this! What a tremendous post

 

[ijuka]

So where are the clear examples that the best prospects over the years from the OHL have done better than the best prospects from the Q despite showing similar levels of domination?

This is your point right? That we need to handicap Lafreniere's #'s because it is clear they are boosted by playing in the Q.

Do you think I consider QMJHL scoring to be worth 50% of OHL's or something? I'm again not talking about "the best prospects", or about projection at all, just point comparison, where I indeed would not compare them 1:1 between QMJHL and OHL. And you can just use, you know, NHLe if you want. It's based on historical data, right? Let me check the current stuff with NHLe calculator, then:

Quinton Byfield 57 points in 30 games, NHLe: 50 points
Alexis Lafreniere 70 points in 32 games, NHLe: 51 points

Not such a huge difference, is it?

 

[Jabba11]

The OHL > QMJHL stereotype is old and outdated.

Last Memorial Cup Champions since 2010:
QMJHL (5x)
OHL (4x)
WHL(1x)

But that’s not the topic at hand. Alexis Lafreniere is going number 1, no matter who gets to pick 1st and no matter how Byfield is good. Lafreniere is a killer. He shows up to play and win. And try taking puck away from him. He’s more dynamic than MacKinnon.

Topic already debated at hand but still relevant and correct me if I’m wrong but the Mem Cup is awarded to who again? Yeah, best team in CHL.