F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[TheBeastCoast]

It only took five minutes. I called it.

The internet is an intolerant place, so no surprise, and way to miss the point of my post. I started out with the point, and used some examples. You focused on the examples.

But to your credit, you likely won't be the only person.

I think you are criminally low on Lafreniere in general. I am high on Turcotte so I'm not going to shit on him I just think you have continually under rated Alexis. It is what it is at this point. You see what you see.

 

[jj cale]

It only took five minutes. I called it.

The internet is an intolerant place, so no surprise, and way to miss the point of my post. I started out with the point, and used some examples. You focused on the examples.

But to your credit, you likely won't be the only person.

I get where you are coming from with Lafreniere, I find it hard to gauge this kids ceiling. I watch him play and nothing screams elite to me aside from i.q. He is a very smart player, sneaky stick handler yet not dazzling, good skater yet not tremendous, real good shot but not out of this world. I don't feel when looking at him that he is a Matthews level prospect, i look at him as a tier below that.

Of course I could be completely wrong, and I hope I am.

 

[Tutu to]

Turcotte and Peterson are no where near the prospect level as Lafrenierre at the same age lol. Lafreniere is on par with a Eichel and Mathews and just bellow McDavid and Dahlin

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I don’t know. Lafreniere looks pretty f***ing special to me.

And assessing the quality of a draft is media-driven nonsense that I hate being involved with but have to prepare to answer anyway. There is no right answer or method to rate a draft in that draft year and my advice is to take even the most matter-of-fact assessment with a grain of salt, including my own grade.

1979, 2003, 2015. Those are the three untouchables. 1999 and 1992 the same but on the opposite end of the spectrum. 1985 was nothing special either.

The media went bananas over 1990 and 1991 turned out to be better. 1993 was incredibly overrated in retrospect but who in 1993 could have predicted disappointing or nondescript careers for what, 15 of the first 20 picks, including four of the first six picks like Daigle, Gratton, Rob Niedermayer and Kozlov.

Every other draft has pretty much been the same — handful of Stars, some surprises, 3-5 HHOF’ers, a scoring champ here, a trophy winner there.

Lafreniere projects to be a star. He projects to put up a lot of points, sell jerseys, and dominate the game, and promote the game along with several others.

I’m convinced if more time was spent watching these top kids play, you’d have more structured discussion in these threads rather than bickering and detractors coming in and offering no examples, no details, no specifics based on in-game observations. You had one kid literally say “I watch only highlights and he doesn’t drive possession”.

What the hell is that????

Again, costs $3.99 to watch HD quality Rimouski replays on neulion. For a whopping 12 bucks, you can see for yourself that the hype is both real and totally enjoyable.

 

[jj cale]

I don’t know. Lafreniere looks pretty ****ing special to me.

And assessing the quality of a draft is media-driven nonsense that I hate being involved with but have to prepare to answer anyway. There is no right answer or method to rate a draft in that draft year and my advice is to take even the most matter-of-fact assessment with a grain of salt, including my own grade.

1979, 2003, 2015. Those are the three untouchables. 1999 and 1992 the same but on the opposite end of the spectrum. 1985 was nothing special either.

The media went bananas over 1990 and 1991 turned out to be better. 1993 was incredibly overrated in retrospect but who in 1993 could have predicted disappointing or nondescript careers for what, 15 of the first 20 picks, including four of the first six picks like Daigle, Gratton, Rob Niedermayer and Kozlov.

Every other draft has pretty much been the same — handful of Stars, some surprises, 3-5 HHOF’ers, a scoring champ here, a trophy winner there.

Lafreniere projects to be a star. He projects to put up a lot of points, sell jerseys, and dominate the game, and promote the game along with several others.

I’m convinced if more time was spent watching these top kids play, you’d have more structured discussion in these threads rather than bickering and detractors coming in and offering no examples, no details, no specifics based on in-game observations. You had one kid literally say “I watch only highlights and he doesn’t drive possession”.

What the hell is that????

Again, costs $3.99 to watch HD quality Rimouski replays on neulion. For a whopping 12 bucks, you can see for yourself that the hype is both real and totally enjoyable.

What about his game do you think makes him special?

 

[JLFGoNicsGo11]

What about his game do you think makes him special?

Hockey I.Q , his passing ability is elite along with his vision , his shot is severely underrated, very physical, natural born leader

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Hockey I.Q , his passing ability is elite along with his vision , his shot is severely underrated, very physical, natural born leader

Bingo. Throw in work ethic and compete level as well. His vision and playmaking are beyond ridiculous. Pinpoint passing in tight spaces. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a better passer through stick traffic for a teenager, forehand or backhand.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

What about his game do you think makes him special?

See previous post.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

People putting down Lafreniere as a prospect just don’t know hockey. The guy is averaging 3PPG for the month some posters on here will struggle to get 3 pts in a season in their beer league.

Hes worse than Petterson and Turcotte ? What ???? NHL scouts have literally said they felt that he would have challenged Hughes to go 1st.... nhl scouts but hey the clowns on HF boards know more than these NHL scouts.

what this kid is doing is nuts, higher ppg than how many guys over the past few years ? Rimouski is trash without Lafreniere, their next best player is probably 16 year old Zachary Bolduc to be honest. Pare and Zavagordny aren’t that great.

Some people just believe what they want.

 

[jj cale]

People putting down Lafreniere as a prospect just don’t know hockey. The guy is averaging 3PPG for the month some posters on here will struggle to get 3 pts in a season in their beer league.

Hes worse than Petterson and Turcotte ? What ???? NHL scouts have literally said they felt that he would have challenged Hughes to go 1st.... nhl scouts but hey the clowns on HF boards know more than these NHL scouts.

what this kid is doing is nuts, higher ppg than how many guys over the past few years ? Rimouski is trash without Lafreniere, their next best player is probably 16 year old Zachary Bolduc to be honest. Pare and Zavagordny aren’t that great.

Some people just believe what they want.

I hope I didn't come across as putting him down as a prospect because I like him as a prospect very much and very much want him to max out high as a player.I just have some questions about his ceiling and in the prospects board posters should be able to voice those questions. That is what this place is at least partly about, if all we could do was sing praises it would be pretty boring. Only when someone comes in with an agenda (usually for team or country reasons) do I get my back up about player critiques because they are not even objectively critiquing at all.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No one ever wants to draw the line. And when they end up being wrong, they do the same thing the next year. All those people who were convinced the 2019 draft had a number of elite players at the top should be looking at the results. They probably are, but don't care. It hurts the business to do so. Byram didn't make the NHL. Looked bad in preseason. Hughes and Kakko are struggling in the NHL. Remember back to McDavid. He entered the league, and was scoring over 1PPG. Dahlin had the second highest scoring 18 year old defensemen season ever. Eichel scored nearly 60 points, Matthews scored 40 goals and nearly 70 points, Laine scored nearly 40 goals.

Take Lafreniere out of the discussion. It really doesn't matter. You could think the kid will be the best hockey player of his generation or a rather pedestrian 1st line player. Everyone's entitled to think what they want, and both extremes of the equation have merits.

At some point, some of these players are not going to be instant stars. If everyone is a star, no one is. This type of rhetoric is just used to hype up the next crop, and fool people. It's what brings success for the prospect industry. Few people ever want to draw the line because that's no fun. It's easier every year to read lists that claim the top 4 players in a draft will all be stars and instant stars. Over the years, I've stopped reading the writers who do this type of thing. And just so we're clear, I'm not referring to the writer above on that front and I'm not knocking or even referring to Lafreniere here.

 

[IHaveNoCreativity]

Turcotte better than Laf that’s hilarious

And Hughes

 

[NickH8]

No one ever wants to draw the line. And when they end up being wrong, they do the same thing the next year. All those people who were convinced the 2019 draft had a number of elite players at the top should be looking at the results. They probably are, but don't care. It hurts the business to do so. Byram didn't make the NHL. Looked bad in preseason. Hughes and Kakko are struggling in the NHL. Remember back to McDavid. He entered the league, and was scoring over 1PPG. Dahlin had the second highest scoring 18 year old defensemen season ever. Eichel scored nearly 60 points, Matthews scored 40 goals and nearly 70 points, Laine scored nearly 40 goals.

Take Lafreniere out of the discussion. It really doesn't matter. You could think the kid will be the best hockey player of his generation or a rather pedestrian 1st line player. Everyone's entitled to think what they want, and both extremes of the equation have merits.

At some point, some of these players are not going to be instant stars. If everyone is a star, no one is. This type of rhetoric is just used to hype up the next crop, and fool people. It's what brings success for the prospect industry. Few people ever want to draw the line because that's no fun. It's easier every year to read lists that claim the top 4 players in a draft will all be stars and instant stars. Over the years, I've stopped reading the writers who do this type of thing. And just so we're clear, I'm not referring to the writer above on that front and I'm not knocking or even referring to Lafreniere here.

I've gotta agree on this. I think an interesting exercise would be to make all draft teams for previous drafts to show just how few players actually end up being top line guys.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

No one ever wants to draw the line. And when they end up being wrong, they do the same thing the next year. All those people who were convinced the 2019 draft had a number of elite players at the top should be looking at the results. They probably are, but don't care. It hurts the business to do so. Byram didn't make the NHL. Looked bad in preseason. Hughes and Kakko are struggling in the NHL. Remember back to McDavid. He entered the league, and was scoring over 1PPG. Dahlin had the second highest scoring 18 year old defensemen season ever. Eichel scored nearly 60 points, Matthews scored 40 goals and nearly 70 points, Laine scored nearly 40 goals.

Take Lafreniere out of the discussion. It really doesn't matter. You could think the kid will be the best hockey player of his generation or a rather pedestrian 1st line player. Everyone's entitled to think what they want, and both extremes of the equation have merits.

At some point, some of these players are not going to be instant stars. If everyone is a star, no one is. This type of rhetoric is just used to hype up the next crop, and fool people. It's what brings success for the prospect industry. Few people ever want to draw the line because that's no fun. It's easier every year to read lists that claim the top 4 players in a draft will all be stars and instant stars. Over the years, I've stopped reading the writers who do this type of thing. And just so we're clear, I'm not referring to the writer above on that front and I'm not knocking or even referring to Lafreniere here.

This is an odd post because I was under the impression you understood why the process is there to begin with. It's not about right or wrong. There's a demand for prospect information and only so many can supply it. The casual fan doesn't care about the draft until the season's over anyway. They don't care about right or wrong -- they want opinions. By the time they realize the analysis was off -- PRESTO -- another draft season and a new round of prospects to ask about.

Also, you're basing long-term potential of the most recent crop on the smallest of samples sizes -- rookie training camps and 10 games? That's ridiculous.

Historically, players (especially forwards) picked in the top of the draft dominate the scoring charts, postseason award lists, Hall of Fame etc. I have all the data compiled -- all the voting for the Hart, Ross finishes, Calder finalists -- these are completely dominated by top-five picks.

Did you know that 18 of the 22 forwards taken 1st overall between 1987 (Turgeon) and 2016 (Matthews) had at least one season where they were either top-10 in points or top-10 in goals?

That's a whopping 82% that became one of the 10-best point producers or goal scorers in the entire league for at least one season.

1987 Turgeon-2
1988 Modano-3
1989 Sundin-2
1990 Nolan-1
1991 Lindros-3
1993 Daigle-0
1997 Thornton-6
1998 Lecavalier-2
1999 Stefan-0
2001 Kovalchuk-5
2002 Nash-0 (4 x top10 in goals)
2004 Ovechkin-8
2005 Crosby-12
2007 Kane-5
2008 Stamkos-5
2009 Tavares-2
2010 Hall-3
2011 RNH-0
2012 Yakupov-0
2013 MacKinnon-2
2015 McDavid-4
2016 Matthews-0 (2 x top-10 in goals)

Now, personally, I'd like to think a top-10 scorer is a star, but that's just me.

And the busts? Daigle was a conceited jerk. Stefan was habitually concussed, Yakupov was a perfect storm. Considering Lafreniere is modest and team oriented, healthy, and completely mature to handle the NHL grind in his native continent, I'd say the numbers are in his favor that he joins that 82% scoring-wise and carves out his own legacy to boot

Also, did you know in each of the last five years, there have been at least five first-overall picks in top-20 scoring (including tied for 20th)?

2015: 1st OA -- Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Nash. 2nd OA -- Sedin, Malkin, Seguin
2016: 1st OA -- Kane, Crosby, Thornton, Ovechkin, Tavares. 2nd OA -- Seguin
2017: 1st OA -- McDavid, Crosby, Kane, Matthews, Ovechkin. 2nd OA -- Hedman, Malkin, Seguin
2018: 1st OA -- McDavid, MacKinnon, Hall, Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Tavares. 2nd OA -- Malkin
2019: 1st OA -- McDavid, MacKinnon, Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin

And keep in mind I didn't include those picked between 3rd and 5th overall.

I can't speak for other writers/analysts, but I like to reward kids for their resumes. I look past the mosquito bites or insignificant warts unless they develop into a character or health issue.

Lafreniere is tracking to join that above list. Nobody can deny that, and it doesn't take a year-round analyst to make that claim.

 

[foggyvisor]

A better skating Mark Stone?

 

[WildWillie]

A better skating Mark Stone?

I have trouble drawing a comparable because his skillset is so unique.

I'm wondering if anyone can remember another top ranked prospect wasn't highly touted until 15+ years old? I remember all the talk in Quebec was surrounding Poulin, Parent, and Simoneau.

 

[nbwingsfan]

No one ever wants to draw the line. And when they end up being wrong, they do the same thing the next year. All those people who were convinced the 2019 draft had a number of elite players at the top should be looking at the results. They probably are, but don't care. It hurts the business to do so. Byram didn't make the NHL. Looked bad in preseason. Hughes and Kakko are struggling in the NHL. Remember back to McDavid. He entered the league, and was scoring over 1PPG. Dahlin had the second highest scoring 18 year old defensemen season ever. Eichel scored nearly 60 points, Matthews scored 40 goals and nearly 70 points, Laine scored nearly 40 goals.

Take Lafreniere out of the discussion. It really doesn't matter. You could think the kid will be the best hockey player of his generation or a rather pedestrian 1st line player. Everyone's entitled to think what they want, and both extremes of the equation have merits.

At some point, some of these players are not going to be instant stars. If everyone is a star, no one is. This type of rhetoric is just used to hype up the next crop, and fool people. It's what brings success for the prospect industry. Few people ever want to draw the line because that's no fun. It's easier every year to read lists that claim the top 4 players in a draft will all be stars and instant stars. Over the years, I've stopped reading the writers who do this type of thing. And just so we're clear, I'm not referring to the writer above on that front and I'm not knocking or even referring to Lafreniere here.

You’re saying you were right about 2019 based on a 6-7 games sample size...

Yes Hughes and Kakko haven’t started great. Either did Thornton, Seguin or Stamkos.

Sure Byram didn’t make his team. Either did your boys Pettersen and Turcotte in their D+1 (or Marner).

WAYYYY too early to say you were right there

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

A better skating Mark Stone?

yep. one of the smartest prospects ive ever seen.

people who are down on him simply don't understand hockey iq. he might not have as much flash as recent 1st overall picks and i think that's why people are relatively down on him.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

A better skating Mark Stone?

Marian Hossa is my favourite comparable for Lafrenière.

High IQ, good skating, amazing vision, physical, complete game.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Marian Hossa is my favourite comparable for Lafrenière.

High IQ, good skating, amazing vision, physical, complete game.

It's not a bad comparison. That said, Marian Hossa wasn't "Marian Hossa" at 18. He was drafted as more of a pure offensive talent, with a lot of work to do to round out his game. So it's hard to tell what Lafrenière will look like as a player at, say, 28.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This is an odd post because I was under the impression you understood why the process is there to begin with. It's not about right or wrong. There's a demand for prospect information and only so many can supply it. The casual fan doesn't care about the draft until the season's over anyway. They don't care about right or wrong -- they want opinions. By the time they realize the analysis was off -- PRESTO -- another draft season and a new round of prospects to ask about.

Also, you're basing long-term potential of the most recent crop on the smallest of samples sizes -- rookie training camps and 10 games? That's ridiculous.

Historically, players (especially forwards) picked in the top of the draft dominate the scoring charts, postseason award lists, Hall of Fame etc. I have all the data compiled -- all the voting for the Hart, Ross finishes, Calder finalists -- these are completely dominated by top-five picks.

Did you know that 18 of the 22 forwards taken 1st overall between 1987 (Turgeon) and 2016 (Matthews) had at least one season where they were either top-10 in points or top-10 in goals?

That's a whopping 82% that became one of the 10-best point producers or goal scorers in the entire league for at least one season.

1987 Turgeon-2
1988 Modano-3
1989 Sundin-2
1990 Nolan-1
1991 Lindros-3
1993 Daigle-0
1997 Thornton-6
1998 Lecavalier-2
1999 Stefan-0
2001 Kovalchuk-5
2002 Nash-0 (4 x top10 in goals)
2004 Ovechkin-8
2005 Crosby-12
2007 Kane-5
2008 Stamkos-5
2009 Tavares-2
2010 Hall-3
2011 RNH-0
2012 Yakupov-0
2013 MacKinnon-2
2015 McDavid-4
2016 Matthews-0 (2 x top-10 in goals)

Now, personally, I'd like to think a top-10 scorer is a star, but that's just me.

And the busts? Daigle was a conceited jerk. Stefan was habitually concussed, Yakupov was a perfect storm. Considering Lafreniere is modest and team oriented, healthy, and completely mature to handle the NHL grind in his native continent, I'd say the numbers are in his favor that he joins that 82% scoring-wise and carves out his own legacy to boot

Also, did you know in each of the last five years, there have been at least five first-overall picks in top-20 scoring (including tied for 20th)?

2015: 1st OA -- Crosby, Tavares, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Nash. 2nd OA -- Sedin, Malkin, Seguin
2016: 1st OA -- Kane, Crosby, Thornton, Ovechkin, Tavares. 2nd OA -- Seguin
2017: 1st OA -- McDavid, Crosby, Kane, Matthews, Ovechkin. 2nd OA -- Hedman, Malkin, Seguin
2018: 1st OA -- McDavid, MacKinnon, Hall, Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Tavares. 2nd OA -- Malkin
2019: 1st OA -- McDavid, MacKinnon, Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin

And keep in mind I didn't include those picked between 3rd and 5th overall.

I can't speak for other writers/analysts, but I like to reward kids for their resumes. I look past the mosquito bites or insignificant warts unless they develop into a character or health issue.

Lafreniere is tracking to join that above list. Nobody can deny that, and it doesn't take a year-round analyst to make that claim.

I specifically said I wasn't referring to you, but if you want to raise your hand, go ahead. We can discuss this as if you are part of that group of writers, if you'd like to do so.

You compiled a lot of stats, but it doesn't address anything I said. I never questioned whether players such as Crosby or McDavid are great players, so to cite them towards my point doesn't make any sense. What I am saying is that not everyone can be a star, and the best player pre-draft in many years. We hear this same rhetoric every single year, and if you actually took it all at face value, these statements are warring.

We can take last year, for example. Hughes was supposed to be right in line with Matthews and Eichel, some said better. Kakko was right in line with Laine, Barkov, some said better. Byram was right in line with the best non-Dahlin defensemen in the last five years, some said the best. Lafreniere is right in line with the best wingers drafted in the last 10 years, some will say the best. Byfield is right in line with the best centers drafted since McDavid. Next year, Raty will be right in line with the best Finnish players, as well as some more grand proclamations when it's figured out who the other best players in the draft are.

Take the validity or lack thereof of any of those things out of the equation. That doesn't even matter. Not all of the 100 grand proclamations can be true. Where is the line drawn? Where do you say that while you are a fan of the player, you don't think they are the next great center or RHD or Swede or Canadian? At some point, these grand proclamations are meaningless if everyone is the next best player. It dilutes this discussion when every year there are at least a few players who fit into these categories. And when you look back, it obviously can't be true because there can't be enough spots in all these categories for all these things to be true.

Some of these guys just aren't deserving of these proclamations pre-draft, despite being worthy of their draft slots in their draft, yet the draft industry can't help itself. It feeds business. You are admitting yourself that it helps your business to use these grand proclamations rather than more realistic analysis that some drafts are weaker than others in certain areas, and acknowledging that you can't have 10 great drafts in a row or 10 years in a row where all of the top players in a draft are great and at least 45 of them are going to score 40 goals.

If everything is great, nothing is great. People need to be able to draw a line. And if you draw a line, you don't hate the player that is right under the line. Those who refuse to draw the line are always the first ones to complain about the analysis of someone who does draw a line. I have a lot more respect for those that draw a line (regardless if I agree with their opinion) and are a little more realistic about how these things work than those who start with the premise that everything and everyone is great, and you are a hater if you don't oversaturate all analysis with every grand proclamation possible and cover every possible base that you can about every player having a chance to be a star.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You’re saying you were right about 2019 based on a 6-7 games sample size...

Yes Hughes and Kakko haven’t started great. Either did Thornton, Seguin or Stamkos.

Sure Byram didn’t make his team. Either did your boys Pettersen and Turcotte in their D+1 (or Marner).

WAYYYY too early to say you were right there

Someone missed the point.

 

[JLFGoNicsGo11]

I specifically said I wasn't referring to you, but if you want to raise your hand, go ahead. We can discuss this as if you are part of that group of writers, if you'd like to do so.

You compiled a lot of stats, but it doesn't address anything I said. I never questioned whether players such as Crosby or McDavid are great players, so to cite them towards my point doesn't make any sense. What I am saying is that not everyone can be a star, and the best player pre-draft in many years. We hear this same rhetoric every single year, and if you actually took it all at face value, these statements are warring.

We can take last year, for example. Hughes was supposed to be right in line with Matthews and Eichel, some said better. Kakko was right in line with Laine, Barkov, some said better. Byram was right in line with the best non-Dahlin defensemen in the last five years, some said the best. Lafreniere is right in line with the best wingers drafted in the last 10 years, some will say the best. Byfield is right in line with the best centers drafted since McDavid. Next year, Raty will be right in line with the best Finnish players, as well as some more grand proclamations when it's figured out who the other best players in the draft are.

Take the validity or lack thereof of any of those things out of the equation. That doesn't even matter. Not all of the 100 grand proclamations can be true. Where is the line drawn? Where do you say that while you are a fan of the player, you don't think they are the next great center or RHD or Swede or Canadian? At some point, these grand proclamations are meaningless if everyone is the next best player. It dilutes this discussion when every year there are at least a few players who fit into these categories. And when you look back, it obviously can't be true because there can't be enough spots in all these categories for all these things to be true.

Some of these guys just aren't deserving of these proclamations pre-draft, despite being worthy of their draft slots in their draft, yet the draft industry can't help itself. It feeds business. You are admitting yourself that it helps your business to use these grand proclamations rather than more realistic analysis that some drafts are weaker than others in certain areas, and acknowledging that you can't have 10 great drafts in a row or 10 years in a row where all of the top players in a draft are great and at least 45 of them are going to score 40 goals. If everything is great, nothing is great.

God you’re depressing , lighten up buddy .... don’t take it out on us because the rags are trash

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Turcotte and Peterson are no where near the prospect level as Lafrenierre at the same age lol. Lafreniere is on par with a Eichel and Mathews and just bellow McDavid and Dahlin

Dahlin is well below McDavid as well.

 

[Dominance]

yep. one of the smartest prospects ive ever seen.

people who are down on him simply don't understand hockey iq. he might not have as much flash as recent 1st overall picks and i think that's why people are relatively down on him.

I get what you’re saying. But I don’t understand that last part, either. He regularly turns guys inside out. The efficiency and creativity of his evasive moves are awesome. And he’s generally an aggressive player with and without the puck, he’s willing to attack defenders and unleash his shot and he’ll step up and put guys on their ass along the boards. He puts the crowd on their feet as much as anybody.