F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[SympathyForTheDevils]

If I recall correctly, Crosby actually started slower that year and was "only" averaging like 2ppg at xmas and went on to average like 3 in the 2nd half

You're right, he did explode post WJC. I just think it's dangerous to extrapolate from early season paces.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

NOT A CHANCE

He won't even hit 160 which is what Guy Chouinard had as 4th for the Quebec Remparts in 73-74

Well... 8 games this month, 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points, that gives him 3.13 ppg, so there's that.

 

[Devils Army]

Just stopping in to reply to the guy who said Hall wasn't an elite skater... Uhhhh what? That's all, dont want to derail the thread, but I'd probably considering Hall a top 10-15 skater in the league

 

[Gabrielor]

He has a lot less help on his team than McDavid had in Erie, too.

I’m fully confident that Lafreniére is the best forward prospect since McDavid, and the most promising winger since Ovechkin. I also think that Byfield is looking like he would have not just challenged, but very possibly passed Matthews for first in 2016 and Eichel for second in 2015, and easily surpassed Hischier in 2017 and a Svechnikov in 2018. Such an amazing draft class.

If Laf was in 2018, I think I take him over Hughes and Kakko, but best forward since McDavid? No.

Byfield better than Eichel/Matthews as a prospect?? Super no.

Eichel took a so-so BU team to the championship, scoring 71 points in 40 games as a freshman. Matthews was over ppg in a Swiss men's league, and was top 5 in goals. I'd have Byfield sqaurely in a tier below, where I've had guys like Svechnikov, Hischier, Makar, Monahan, etc.

 

[lilmaxo]

Lafreniere is right there with franchise status players such as eichel/dahlin/matthews.A tier below mcdavid in term of prospect

 

[kyle44]

Highlights from his 5 point effort yesterday:

Une autre domination de Rimouski! Remparts 2 Océanic 9 – LHJMQ

 

[Dominance]

If Laf was in 2018, I think I take him over Hughes and Kakko, but best forward since McDavid? No.

Byfield better than Eichel/Matthews as a prospect?? Super no.

Eichel took a so-so BU team to the championship, scoring 71 points in 40 games as a freshman. Matthews was over ppg in a Swiss men's league, and was top 5 in goals. I'd have Byfield sqaurely in a tier below, where I've had guys like Svechnikov, Hischier, Makar, Monahan, etc.

And Lafreniere is scoring at a rate greater than McDavid did in his draft season, on a substantially worse team, in a year when the only other player over 2.0 PPG in the QMJHL is his overage linemate he has raised from obscurity. He is also far more of a well-rounded player at this age than any of McDavid, Matthews, or Eichel. He falls behind McDavid only due to being a winger and not having any trait so ridiculously elite that it is absolutely game-breaking at any level, like Connor’s skating is and was.

Similarly, Byfield is over 2.0 PPG on a team with very little in the way of offensive support and that uses a predominantly defensive and structured system. His all around game is far beyond any of the players listed, and his size/speed combination is unheard of. None of Hischier, Svechnikov, or Monahan were close to him as a prospect, statistically or on the eye test. He’s certainly closer to Matthews and Eichel than that group. I wouldn’t say he has the upper hand necessarily, but neither would I say it is remotely clear cut that either of those two would be selected over a better skating, far bigger, stronger two-way centre scoring over 2.0 PPG in the OHL.

 

[Andrei79]

He went to the WJC last year and missed only 7 games. Barring injury, he should have around 60 games.
With that said, he shouldn't be expected to continue on that pace. 160 points is a lot; it' s roughly Crosby's totals in his draft year.

Crosby was almost a full year younger however. Still insane numbers, but maybe Lafreniere can do it.

 

[BradMarchandismydad]

How has Pare looked in general? I understand that there's certainly a degree of being backpacked by Laf, but those point totals look pretty damn good.

 

[Gabrielor]

And Lafreniere is scoring at a rate greater than McDavid did in his draft season, on a substantially worse team, in a year when the only other player over 2.0 PPG in the QMJHL is his overage linemate he has raised from obscurity. He is also far more of a well-rounded player at this age than any of McDavid, Matthews, or Eichel. He falls behind McDavid only due to being a winger and not having any trait so ridiculously elite that it is absolutely game-breaking at any level, like Connor’s skating is and was.

Similarly, Byfield is over 2.0 PPG on a team with very little in the way of offensive support and that uses a predominantly defensive and structured system. His all around game is far beyond any of the players listed, and his size/speed combination is unheard of. None of Hischier, Svechnikov, or Monahan were close to him as a prospect, statistically or on the eye test. He’s certainly closer to Matthews and Eichel than that group. I wouldn’t say he has the upper hand necessarily, but neither would I say it is remotely clear cut that either of those two would be selected over a better skating, far bigger, stronger two-way centre scoring over 2.0 PPG in the OHL.

You’re comparing current-incompletes to full pictures. Kirby Dach was over 2 ppg this time last year too...

 

[Dominance]

You’re comparing current-incompletes to full pictures. Kirby Dach was over 2 ppg this time last year too...

Oh, of course. I see I didn’t do enough in my original post to clarify that all of my comments are entirely contingent on the players maintaining this pace over the full season, which is just hypothesis at this point.

Cheers.

 

[flashsabre]

Regardless of how the year plays out and who wants to argue where these guys rank, the fact that young superstars are coming into the league each year is great for the game.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

If Laf was in 2018, I think I take him over Hughes and Kakko, but best forward since McDavid? No.

Byfield better than Eichel/Matthews as a prospect?? Super no.

Eichel took a so-so BU team to the championship, scoring 71 points in 40 games as a freshman. Matthews was over ppg in a Swiss men's league, and was top 5 in goals. I'd have Byfield sqaurely in a tier below, where I've had guys like Svechnikov, Hischier, Makar, Monahan, etc.

Lafrenière might have a lower offensive ceiling than these two, but he has a lower floor as well. For his age, Lafrenière is a very well-rounded player. He reminds me of Marian Hossa a lot.

At worst, he is going to be a 45-50 point 2nd line winger who PKs and can play tough minutes.

At best, he'll be peak Marian Hossa.

I'd say he is in the same range as Eichel and Matthews as a prospect. I'd take him over Eichel (not Matthews).

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Impacts the game beyond scoring. This shift wasn't an outlier either. He plays this way all the time.

 

[JLFGoNicsGo11]

Highlights from his 5 point effort yesterday:

Une autre domination de Rimouski! Remparts 2 Océanic 9 – LHJMQ

Is it just me or should he have been credited with 5 assists yesterday?

 

[ETTHAKING67]

I really like Laf but I wonder if the Sens pick first if they draft him.
Byfield might be the Center they need if they want to have succes for the next decate or so but at the same time Laf is special (No that far from Byfield tho) and he's french-canadian which would be REALLY good for marketing (Ottawa is 5 minutes away from Gatineau in the Povince of Quebec if you didn't know) the way things are going for them I feel like they need that marketing boost if they want to stay alive.

 

[jj cale]

I really like Laf but I wonder if the Sens pick first if they draft him.
Byfield might be the Center they need if they want to have succes for the next decate or so but at the same time Laf is special (No that far from Byfield tho) and he's french-canadian which would be REALLY good for marketing (Ottawa is 5 minutes away from Gatineau in the Povince of Quebec if you didn't know) the way things are going for them I feel like they need that marketing boost if they want to stay alive.

I think a team has a tough decision to make coming up, be it the sens or not.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I really like Laf but I wonder if the Sens pick first if they draft him.
Byfield might be the Center they need if they want to have succes for the next decate or so but at the same time Laf is special (No that far from Byfield tho) and he's french-canadian which would be REALLY good for marketing (Ottawa is 5 minutes away from Gatineau in the Povince of Quebec if you didn't know) the way things are going for them I feel like they need that marketing boost if they want to stay alive.

If Melnyk is still around he'll 100% call that shot. Needs support from the Ottawa Franco community too.

But it'll be amazing if we end up with either one of them. We're not even likely to be in that position because of this dumb lottery system.

 

[93LEAFS]

You’re comparing current-incompletes to full pictures. Kirby Dach was over 2 ppg this time last year too...

Yeah, both Matthews and Eichel had 2 extremely elite seasons to fall back on, and each had very high-end season as 16 year old given that 16 year olds aren't commonly bumped to the U-18's and used as key centers. While both older, having 2 seasons of that level of performance provides more certainty (which is why Laf having 3 strong seasons really helps the argument for going 1). Whereas Byfield had a good but I wouldn't call an elite season for a 16 year-old in the OHL (the gold standard being McDavid, Stamkos and Tavares). I have a hard time seeing Byfield being taken over those Matthews and Eichel. I mean, Matthews was the best player on the USA World Championship team as an 18 year-old. Byfield could move into their range, but its going to take a massive full-season performance. I mean, Matthews broke the single-season USNTDP goal-scoring record as a 6'3 210 pound center, and had the best goal scoring rate in the Swiss league of players who played over 30 games and the 2nd highest ppg of guys who played over 30, a league that isn't deep but tends to have high-end top talent due to what they pay imports (whereas they get killed on depth vs the more known SHL and SM-Liiga). Eichel was the first freshman to win the Hobey Baker since Kariya, and had a dominating NCAA season.

As for the marketing angle? That really shouldn't matter in a Canadian market, especially when you are discussing 2 Canadian prospects. If you win, and aren't run like a gong-show, people will show up. The player who contributes the most towards your team winning will likely provide the biggest financial reward, and to think and draft otherwise is insanely short-sighted.

 

[Gabrielor]

Yeah, both Matthews and Eichel had 2 extremely elite seasons to fall back on, and each had very high-end season as 16 year old given that 16 year olds aren't commonly bumped to the U-18's and used as key centers. While both older, having 2 seasons of that level of performance provides more certainty (which is why Laf having 3 strong seasons really helps the argument for going 1). Whereas Byfield had a good but I wouldn't call an elite season for a 16 year-old in the OHL (the gold standard being McDavid, Stamkos and Tavares). I have a hard time seeing Byfield being taken over those Matthews and Eichel. I mean, Matthews was the best player on the USA World Championship team as an 18 year-old. Byfield could move into their range, but its going to take a massive full-season performance. I mean, Matthews broke the single-season USNTDP goal-scoring record as a 6'3 210 pound center, and had the best goal scoring rate in the Swiss league of players who played over 30 games and the 2nd highest ppg of guys who played over 30, a league that isn't deep but tends to have high-end top talent due to what they pay imports (whereas they get killed on depth vs the more known SHL and SM-Liiga). Eichel was the first freshman to win the Hobey Baker since Kariya, and had a dominating NCAA season.

As for the marketing angle? That really shouldn't matter in a Canadian market, especially when you are discussing 2 Canadian prospects. If you win, and aren't run like a gong-show, people will show up. The player who contributes the most towards your team winning will likely provide the biggest financial reward, and to think and draft otherwise is insanely short-sighted.

Agreed. I have Laf in that franchise player tier. Byfield is in that elite prospect tier, 1 below, for now.

 

[Gabrielor]

Lafrenière might have a lower offensive ceiling than these two, but he has a lower floor as well. For his age, Lafrenière is a very well-rounded player. He reminds me of Marian Hossa a lot.

At worst, he is going to be a 45-50 point 2nd line winger who PKs and can play tough minutes.

At best, he'll be peak Marian Hossa.

I'd say he is in the same range as Eichel and Matthews as a prospect. I'd take him over Eichel (not Matthews).

I'm confused, since you took a quote about Byfield, and made it about Laf. Since this is the Laf thread though, I'll roll with it.

Laf is in my franchise player tier. Today, I'd take Eichel and Matthews over him, but I also don't have his full season to analyze yet.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

My issue with this discussion is that this stuff is said every year. At some point, you have to draw the line. Eventually you are going to get a year that's a little weaker at the top, and you are likely going to have a few weak years coming if 2015 and 2016 had so many of those top guys. Because this is all relative. Lafreniere is good, Byfield is good. No one disputes that. What is disputed is how good they are compared to players from previous drafts. I said that 2019 was weak from the get go. All the Finn's and the Hughes fanboys attacked me for it. We are now seeing that none of the 2019 draftees are immediate impact players in the NHL.

I think Lafreniere is probably more of an immediate impact player than any player from 2019, and I'd put him right below Turcotte for whose the best prospect from the two drafts. To me, Turcotte is in a tier with Pettersson from 2017 pre-draft. They have a small advantage over a player like Lafreniere, and its mostly down to position. Both are under the level of the Matthews, Eichel, Laine types. I'd put Lafrienere in a tier with the recent wingers at the top like Svechnikov, Kakko and Hughes. In my opinion, he's probably first in that tier followed by Svechnikov, Kakko, then Hughes.

But comparing him to Matthews, Eichel, Dahlin, Laine is not favorable towards him, in my opinion. I think he has a full tier above him with players like Pettersson and Turcotte before you get to the tier of Dahlin, Matthews, Eichel, Laine. Just like it wasn't favorable towards Hughes to compare him to those two American centers, and just like it wasn't favorable towards Kakko to compare him to Laine. It's okay to acknowledge once in a while that the prospects at the top of a specific draft are a weaker crop.

And here's how I had it, in a more visual context. I'm sure I'll be attacked or at least ridiculed for my opinion here, but I'll stick by what I've said, and I think I'll end up being right here.

Tier 1:

McDavid

Tier 2:

Dahlin
Laine
Eichel
Matthews

Tier 3:

Pettersson
Turcotte

Tier 4:

Lafreniere
Svechnikov
Kakko
Hughes

 

[JLFGoNicsGo11]

My issue with this discussion is that this stuff is said every year. At some point, you have to draw the line. Eventually you are going to get a year that's a little weaker at the top, and you are likely going to have a few weak years coming if 2015 and 2016 had so many of those top guys. Because this is all relative. Lafreniere is good, Byfield is good. No one disputes that. What is disputed is how good they are compared to players from previous drafts. I said that 2019 was weak from the get go. All the Finn's and the Hughes fanboys attacked me for it. We are now seeing that none of the 2019 draftees are immediate impact players in the NHL.

I think Lafreniere is probably more of an immediate impact player than any player from 2019, and I'd put him right below Turcotte for whose the best prospect from the two drafts. To me, Turcotte is in a tier with Pettersson from 2017 pre-draft. They have a small advantage over a player like Lafreniere, and its mostly down to position. Both are under the level of the Matthews, Eichel, Laine types. I'd put Lafrienere in a tier with the recent wingers at the top like Svechnikov, Kakko and Hughes. In my opinion, he's probably first in that tier followed by Svechnikov, Kakko, then Hughes.

But comparing him to Matthews, Eichel, Dahlin, Laine is not favorable towards him, in my opinion. I think he has a full tier above him with players like Pettersson and Turcotte before you get to the tier of Dahlin, Matthews, Eichel, Laine. Just like it wasn't favorable towards Hughes to compare him to those two American centers, and just like it wasn't favorable towards Kakko to compare him to Laine. It's okay to acknowledge once in a while that the prospects at the top of a specific draft are a weaker crop.

And here's how I had it, in a more visual context. I'm sure I'll be attacked or at least ridiculed for my opinion here, but I'll stick by what I've said, and I think I'll end up being right here.

Tier 1:

McDavid

Tier 2:

Dahlin
Laine
Eichel
Matthews

Tier 3:

Pettersson
Turcotte

Tier 4:

Lafreniere
Svechnikov
Kakko
Hughes

Turcotte better than Laf that’s hilarious

 

[tealhockey]

Turcotte better than Laf that’s hilarious

The way things play out is often hilarious. Pettersson going 5th in retrospect is hilarious. I don't agree with him (though I don't disagree fully) but he made his argument and you didn't really add anything substantive.

For PB's post, I think Svechnikov seems a bit underrated, especially if we consider how they will do in playoffs I think he has big upside in how the game is played in the spring. Hughes-Kakko dyad is hard to define as definitively any tier right now, putting Laf in tier 4 also seems premature (he also seems like a playoff-performer type) and Byfield is conspicuously absent as a 6'5 center with scary offensive upside. Center, IMO being the hardest and most important position, if Byfield can handle his responsibilities and maintain the explosive offense in the NHL, I don't see why he wouldn't be tier 2. That would anchor Lafreniere up there just from the fact that a lot of people seem to think he is going to be better. I don't really have an opinion either way this is just how I see it, we draft players very young in this sport and there is a lot to prove still in October of their draft year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Turcotte better than Laf that’s hilarious

It only took five minutes. I called it.

The internet is an intolerant place, so no surprise, and way to miss the point of my post. I started out with the point, and used some examples. You focused on the examples.

But to your credit, you likely won't be the only person.