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F Adam Fantilli - Univ. of Michigan, NCAA (2023 Draft)

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RedHawkDown said:
Again this just tells me you never actually saw McDavid as a prospect. Even in Erie he was already showing that he had a skillset that had never been seen in hockey before. McDavid is likely the most purely skilled player of all time with his physical tools (skating and stick handling combo). Bedard isn’t close and nobody else is either.
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I agree with this but Bedard is an incredibly elite shooter and basically already had an NHL caliber shot at age 15.

That goal he scored in his first u18s was simply one of the best pure shots I have ever seen.

 
KaprizovSaveUs said:
Fantilli-

I think Eichel is a natural spot to start the conversation given the production, but I think when you watch closely you realize it they’re on different levels. I remember watching Eichel and he was just so dominant. In College hockey and at the WJC, he was just so visibly taking over games. I don’t see that from Fantilli. Bedard has done this type of thing at various levels, but when you look at the toolkit I think you realize he’s not on Eichel’s level either, and that’s not a slight to him.
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Worth noting that Eichel has always been a guy whose impact has lagged behind the eye test. His talent is unreal - incredible athleticism, outstanding skater, very good shot, big/strong, elite hands. But he’s always tried to do a bit too much himself, forces plays vs. letting the game come to him.

There’s quite a lot of guys who are well behind Eichel in terms of eye popping talent, but are nevertheless better. Fantilli has a chance to be one of them. I’d put my money on him not reaching Eichel’s level, but he does have a shot to be that good or better. While Bedard, I’d put my money on him significantly exceeding Eichel’s level.
 
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ponder said:
Worth noting that Eichel has always been a guy whose impact has lagged behind the eye test. His talent is unreal - incredible athleticism, outstanding skater, very good shot, big/strong, elite hands. But he’s always tried to do a bit too much himself, forces plays vs. letting the game come to him.

There’s quite a lot of guys who are well behind Eichel in terms of eye popping talent, but are nevertheless better. Fantilli has a chance to be one of them. I’d put my money on him not reaching Eichel’s level, but he does have a shot to be that good or better. While Bedard, I’d put my money on him significantly exceeding Eichel’s level.
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Sure. I think those are well within the range of outcomes. I’m just saying, if I was a scout and had to choose between Eichel and Fantilli as prospect not knowing eithers outcome, I’d choose Eichel every time. I also think there’s a good chance Bedard becomes a superstar in the NHL. He’s checked off a lot of boxes on his way to his draft year. But, I have a lot more doubt than I did when McDavid, and Matthews for that matter, were coming into the league. Namely, how many 5’9 guys who are just good skaters become no doubt franchise changing superstars? I’m not saying he won’t be the first, I’ve typically put less emphasis on size than most, but I think there’s risk involved in his evaluation that wasn’t there with your generational type guys. He’s a Hughes level prospect for me.
 
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KaprizovSaveUs said:
Sure. I think those are well within the range of outcomes. I’m just saying, if I was a scout and had to choose between Eichel and Fantilli as prospect not knowing eithers outcome, I’d choose Eichel every time. I also think there’s a good chance Bedard becomes a superstar in the NHL. He’s checked off a lot of boxes on his way to his draft year. But, I have a lot more doubt than I did when McDavid, and Matthews for that matter, were coming into the league. Namely, how many 5’9 guys who are just good skaters become no doubt franchise changing superstars? I’m not saying he won’t be the first, I’ve typically put less emphasis on size than most, but I think there’s risk involved in his evaluation that wasn’t there with your generational type guys. He’s a Hughes level prospect for me.
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I do think Eichel was a better prospect than Fantilli is now, though close enough where you could certainly imagine Fantilli panning out better.

Re: Bedard being a Jack Hughes level prospect, disagree. First, on size, Bedard was listed as 5’9” last year (at 16), but he’s now listed at 5’10”, 185 lbs. Could still grow more. Jack Hughes was listed at 5’10”, 168 lbs at the draft (now 5’11”, 175 lbs), so Bedard has equal height but will be about 20 lbs heavier on draft day, he has fewer size concerns. Bedard also IMO has a more projectable game - Hughes had a pretty “junior” game that I was worried about translating, took a lot of risks and held onto the puck a lot, Bedard is more decisive/direct with his game and the shot is absurd. Also I think he’s just better - for example his D-1 WJC performance was already a lot better/more impressive than Hughes’ draft year performance (Hughes didn’t make the U20 team in his D-1).

So Fantilli, yeah, below Eichel as a prospect, but not massively so, close-ish. To compare him to another famous, big NCAA-draft-year centre, I’d say he’s ahead of same-age Toews, who turned out better than Eichel. Bedard I think is quite solidly above Jack Hughes as a prospect.
 
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It‘s such a shame for Fantilli - if he were born just a few weeks earlier, he would have been the undisputed #1 pick in last years draft in my opinion.
 
ponder said:
I do think Eichel was a better prospect than Fantilli is now, though close enough where you could certainly imagine Fantilli panning out better.

Re: Bedard being a Jack Hughes level prospect, disagree. First, on size, Bedard was listed as 5’9” last year (at 16), but he’s now listed at 5’10”, 185 lbs. Could still grow more. Jack Hughes was listed at 5’10”, 168 lbs at the draft (now 5’11”, 175 lbs), so Bedard has equal height but will be about 20 lbs heavier on draft day, he has fewer size concerns. Bedard also IMO has a more projectable game - Hughes had a pretty “junior” game that I was worried about translating, took a lot of risks and held onto the puck a lot, Bedard is more decisive/direct with his game and the shot is absurd. Also I think he’s just better - for example his D-1 WJC performance was already a lot better/more impressive than Hughes’ draft year performance (Hughes didn’t make the U20 team in his D-1).

So Fantilli, yeah, below Eichel as a prospect, but not massively so, close-ish. To compare him to another famous, big NCAA-draft-year centre, I’d say he’s ahead of same-age Toews, who turned out better than Eichel. Bedard I think is quite solidly above Jack Hughes as a prospect.
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I agree with some of this and disagree with other parts.

I think Bedard is better. You are right that he’s already the same height as Hughes, he’s noticeably stronger, and noticeably better on face offs. Bedard is probably also a better offensive player. Bedard is an elite shooter and a very good playmaker. Hughes is an elite playmaker and was a below average shooter. The pure offensive tools for Bedard are better.

Where I would give Hughes a big advantage is skating. Bedard skates well, but Hughes is an elite skater.

I think Bedard is above Hughes, but I don’t think he’s so far above him.
 
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Had the opportunity to watch Fantilli play live tonight at PSU. Michigan was pretty bad as a whole, but he had a pretty bad game overall. He really didn’t showcase any of the tools that I expected him to have. It was only one game, but I just didn’t see any defining intangibles that separate him from the pack. For example, Luke Hughes had a pretty rough game but you could still tell that he has all the elite tools you’d want in a great D prospect. I just didn’t see much of that from Fantilli.

I haven’t watched much of Michigan this year because I assumed he was going to be a sure-fire top 3 pick regardless. But, I think I’ll have to watch more games of his against solid NCAA teams to form a better opinion.
 
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GermanSpitfire said:
It‘s such a shame for Fantilli - if he were born just a few weeks earlier, he would have been the undisputed #1 pick in last years draft in my opinion.
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So if we ignore this season so far like nothing has happened, you think Fantilli (who had a very good but not exceptional 2021/2022 season) would have been the undisputed #1 pick ?

I think thats kinda hard to believe. Somehow you do take this years evaluation into consideration.
 
Frolov 6'3 said:
So if we ignore this season so far like nothing has happened, you think Fantilli (who had a very good but not exceptional 2021/2022 season) would have been the undisputed #1 pick ?

I think thats kinda hard to believe. Somehow you do take this years evaluation into consideration.
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I think he very easily goes 1st last year after his USHL season, yes.
 
Frolov 6'3 said:
So if we ignore this season so far like nothing has happened, you think Fantilli (who had a very good but not exceptional 2021/2022 season) would have been the undisputed #1 pick ?

I think thats kinda hard to believe. Somehow you do take this years evaluation into consideration.
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Without a doubt in my mind.
 
Frolov 6'3 said:
So you obviously have spoken about this matter before Fantilli started his freshman season and you knew the top 5 picks of the last draft would have somehow a slow start, correct ?
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I did speak about this before his freshman season. It's also not unexpected that the top 5 from this draft started slow considering how weak of a draft it was.
 
WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
I did speak about this before his freshman season. It's also not unexpected that the top 5 from this draft started slow considering how weak of a draft it was.
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Well any weakness of draft x or y is also a thing we should be sceptical about because that has been said about drafts that werent weak after all.

Another thing I rather want see to see first again.

Fact of the matter is that people here draw a lot of conclusions both beforehand and afterhand.
 
Frolov 6'3 said:
Well any weakness of draft x or y is also a thing we should be sceptical about because that has been said about drafts that werent weak after all.

Another thing I rather want see to see first again.

Fact of the matter is that people here draw a lot of conclusions both beforehand and afterhand.
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Sure, but at the time of the draft, it was pretty clear how weak the top end of this draft was, especially compared to 2023.
 
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