F Adam Fantilli - Univ. of Michigan, NCAA (2023 Draft)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nice work and comparision I appreciate that but... you absolutely didn´t consider 2 very important things.

1. Bedard is almost 1 year younger than all this group (Eichel, Matthews, Fantilli, Michkov, L.Carlsson...)
2. Bedard´s international success. He did pretty exceptional things on WJC-18, WJC-20... probably better than anyone else on international stage.

So I don´t agree with that above, Eichel wasn´t CLEARLY (??) ahead of Bedard, no...

These guys all had really impressive international resumes as well -

D-1 WJC
Eichel put up 5p in 5gp in a limited role
Bedard had 8p in 7gp, playing on a line with a guy that had 17 points
Matthews had 3p in 5gp in a very limited role

 

[93LEAFS]

At 16/17, Fantilli was absolutely not on Eichel's level. Heck, Eichel's 16/17 year old numbers were even better than Bedards:

In their D-1 years:

Eichel (USHL)
24gp 20g 45p
68p 154p pace over 82gp
NHL equivalent: ~48p

Fantilli (USHL)
57gp 37g 74p
53g 106p pace over 82gp
NHL equivalent: ~33p

Bedard (WHL)
62gp 51g 100p
67g 121p pace of 82gp
NHL equivalent: ~41p

Honestly, as a prospect, Eichel was every bit as promising as Bedard, if not more so. He dropped 71p in 40gp in Hockey East - that's a higher PPG than Bedard currently has while playing in a much more difficult league to score in. Bedard would need to score 140-150 points in the WHL this year to match Eichel's NHLe from that season. Factor in Eichel's size and power advantage, and he would probably be drafted ahead of Bedard if they were eligible in the same year. Same goes for Matthews as well.

For the top forward prospects from the 2015 - 2023 drafts, I think the consensus probably would have gone something like this (assuming this is at the start of their respective draft years, and ignoring nationality).

McDavid
Eichel/Matthews
Hughes/Bedard/Michkov
Lafreniere/Wright

Hughes actually had the highest NHLe as a 16 year old of that group and absolutely shredded the U18s, but he was also a bit smaller like Bedard, which hurt his ranking as a prospect. I would call it a coin flip between Bedard and Hughes.

Here is how their D-1 and D0 NHLe's stack up thus far (obviously a small sample for the 2023 guys)
View attachment 599963

Wright didn't play his 16 year old season, but his 15 year old season was around 30 NHLe and his 17 year old season was around 40, so he probably would have fallen somewhere in that range.

So yeah, Eichel was pretty clearly ahead of Bedard.

Agree with most of your points. But, I do find comparing USNTDP numbers for the U-18's to regular USHL is a bit misleading, as the top U-18 kids always dominate statistically since they have essentially all the best American players in the league.

 

[Gold Standard]

Nice work and comparision I appreciate that but... you absolutely didn´t consider 2 very important things.

1. Bedard is almost 1 year younger than all this group (Eichel, Matthews, Fantilli, Michkov, L.Carlsson...)
2. Bedard´s international success. He did pretty exceptional things on WJC-18, WJC-20... probably better than anyone else on international stage.

So I don´t agree with that above, Eichel wasn´t CLEARLY (??) ahead of Bedard, no...

That would be the correct take.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Agree with most of your points. But, I do find comparing USNTDP numbers for the U-18's to regular USHL is a bit misleading, as the top U-18 kids always dominate statistically since they have essentially all the best American players in the league.

Yeah agreed, I was too lazy to make the adjustment. I think the USDP NHLe is typically ~15% less than that of the USHL

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I respect your right to an opinion but with regards to Fantilli and Eichel they seem similar in terms of attributes and production; Fantilli doesn’t seem to have the perceived attitude issues that Eichel has though. Eichel perhaps better vision and skating, Fantilli a better finisher.

To your other point, Bédard is clear of both of them by some margin, he’s coming off a season where he put up 100pts as a 16 year old on a non-playoff team

No, they don't.

I haven't seen any games yet this season, but I watch the highlights of the goals they've scored (and I've watched Fantilli play a bunch the last few seasons). One thing I noticed about a lot of his points this season was that many of them are not very impressive. He has 10 assists, but 6 are secondary. That doesn't continue over the course of a season. He had an empty net goal, as well, in the total. I distinctly remember another of his goals he was just right place at the right time to bang home an easy rebound after a teammate deked out the goalie.

Now, I'm not saying those points don't count. They all matter. At the end of the season, no one is going to care how they come. He's banked enough early on in the season that he should be able to be over 1PPG with some normal regression once they start playing better teams. And that would be a very good season, but the comparison to Eichel is way off to me. Eichel had 71 points in 40 games. Obviously some good fortune comes with any great season, but I do not think Fantilli is 56 points in 34 games good the rest of his freshman season. He was only 8th in PPG in the USHL last season, and did that playing for the best team in the league.

As good of a team as Fantilli plays for and how impressive his start looks that he leads the team in points by five, I find the best predictor of a team's point production to be SOG. Fantilli leads by two over Samkoskevich, who never seems to score as well as he the offensive chances he creates. Luke Hughes is coming off an injury in the offseason, and has had a slow start to the season. It may be a stacked team, but those are the only two real returning stars for the team. The rest are also freshman. And he only leads in SOG by two, so I think there's some regression coming for him points-wise compared to some of his teammates.

I will maintain that Fantilli is like a slightly better version of Beniers, which is a very good player. Eichel was one of the best prospects of the past 10 years. He was only second because he was in the same draft as the best prospect of the past generation. It's widely viewed that he was neck and neck with players like Dahlin and Matthews at the same point for best of the past generation at the time of the draft. Fantilli is not that.

Where does Bedard fit in? Saying he's clear of Eichel by some margin would suggest he's generational. To me, that makes no sense. It's like some people just want to be excited, so they call this guy generational. He's very good, but he has obvious weaknesses that make him not generational. He's 5'9 and he's not a blazing skater. Thats enough. Generational players are built in a lab. Bedard has some weaknesses. McDavid/Crosby/Lindros/Lemieux didn't.

I would put Bedard on the same level as players like Eichel, Matthews, and Dahlin for next best pre-draft prospect of the past 10 years, but is he better? Sorry, I'm taking him last compared to those players. 5'9 compared to a bunch of guys 6'2/6'3 matters.

 

[bishop12]

I don't think he's that close to Eichel level.

I don't think Bedard is Eichel level either. Close, but Eichel>Bedard.

Is Eichel the most overrated guy going? He's accomplished f*** all in his career so far.

 

[Gliff]

Is Eichel the most overrated guy going? He's accomplished f*** all in his career so far.

They are talking about as a prospect.

 

[bishop12]

Bedard is twice the prospect Eichel is. Come on now. Bedard is at McDavid's level of potential.

They are talking about as a prospect.

fair enough...but he was a clear as day second to McDavid..similar to Fantilli to Bedard.

 

[BlueBull]

Oh cool, Fantilli is putting up 15 points in 6 Games in the USHL.

...wait a minute, YOU MEAN HE IS PUTTING THIS UP IN THE NCAA?!?!

 

[BlueBull]

Is Eichel the most overrated guy going? He's accomplished f*** all in his career so far.

When someone accidentally s**ts on an NHL All-Star on his Birthday.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Bedard is twice the prospect Eichel is. Come on now. Bedard is at McDavid's level of potential.


fair enough...but he was a clear as day second to McDavid..similar to Fantilli to Bedard.

Bedard is not on McDavuds level. It’s not even about points. McDavids combination of puckhandling at elite speed and IQ has never been seen in the NHL, ever. That’s what made him such an elite prospect. Not the points.

 

[Breakers]

Decent goal on a breakaway off a turnover

Showing off his skating stride and I believe goes bar down

 

[Bonin21]

Seems to be way better than Cooley at this stage.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Seems to be way better than Cooley at this stage.

Size plays a huge role in how these types of players look at this level in all honesty. I think Fantilli will ultimately be the better player, but Cooley has some great tools and is a completely different player.

 

[Lavar Ball]

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard is twice the prospect Eichel is. Come on now. Bedard is at McDavid's level of potential.


fair enough...but he was a clear as day second to McDavid..similar to Fantilli to Bedard.

Eichel was arguably a better prospect than Bedard. At best, Bedard is equal to Eichel at the same age.

Eichel put up better numbers in hockey east than Bedard has in the WHL lol...

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Eichel was arguably a better prospect than Bedard. At best, Bedard is equal to Eichel at the same age.

Eichel put up better numbers in hockey east than Bedard has in the WHL lol...

People want to act like Eichel didn’t have one of the best NCAA seasons of all time. Eichel goes 1st overall in almost any other draft in the last 10 years.

For various reasons, Eichel just hasn’t lived up to his potential (despite still being a phenomenal player). I’m really interested to see if Bedard will be able to live up to the hype.

 

[prongertheman9]

Eichel was arguably a better prospect than Bedard. At best, Bedard is equal to Eichel at the same age.

Eichel put up better numbers in hockey east than Bedard has in the WHL lol...

Eichel didn’t play in hockey east at the same age lol…

 

[wetcoast]

Eichel was arguably a better prospect than Bedard. At best, Bedard is equal to Eichel at the same age.

Eichel put up better numbers in hockey east than Bedard has in the WHL lol...

Eichel probably was the "better" prospect but he was also almost a full year older and had some other talent on that BU team so it's a really hard comparison and also I have seen Bedard listed at 5'10" and he is a solid 185 lbs built like Crosby a bit that way.

I think people are forgetting that Bedard has an elite among the elites in terms of a shot just like Joe Sakic and I think that he will have a better pro career than Eichel who got sidetracked with injuries and just not a great situation in Buffalo for him.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Eichel didn’t play in hockey east at the same age lol…

He played there in his draft year as a 17/18 year old.

You guys are acting like the age discrepancy thing is some big gotcha. They'd be 9 months apart in the same draft.

 

[HabzSauce]

Is there no thread for Bedard?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Eichel probably was the "better" prospect but he was also almost a full year older and had some other talent on that BU team so it's a really hard comparison and also I have seen Bedard listed at 5'10" and he is a solid 185 lbs built like Crosby a bit that way.

I think people are forgetting that Bedard has an elite among the elites in terms of a shot just like Joe Sakic and I think that he will have a better pro career than Eichel who got sidetracked with injuries and just not a great situation in Buffalo for him.

They were the same age in their Freshman season.

 

[Hanji]

No, they don't.

I haven't seen any games yet this season, but I watch the highlights of the goals they've scored (and I've watched Fantilli play a bunch the last few seasons). One thing I noticed about a lot of his points this season was that many of them are not very impressive. He has 10 assists, but 6 are secondary. That doesn't continue over the course of a season. He had an empty net goal, as well, in the total. I distinctly remember another of his goals he was just right place at the right time to bang home an easy rebound after a teammate deked out the goalie.

Now, I'm not saying those points don't count. They all matter. At the end of the season, no one is going to care how they come. He's banked enough early on in the season that he should be able to be over 1PPG with some normal regression once they start playing better teams. And that would be a very good season, but the comparison to Eichel is way off to me. Eichel had 71 points in 40 games. Obviously some good fortune comes with any great season, but I do not think Fantilli is 56 points in 34 games good the rest of his freshman season. He was only 8th in PPG in the USHL last season, and did that playing for the best team in the league.

As good of a team as Fantilli plays for and how impressive his start looks that he leads the team in points by five, I find the best predictor of a team's point production to be SOG. Fantilli leads by two over Samkoskevich, who never seems to score as well as he the offensive chances he creates. Luke Hughes is coming off an injury in the offseason, and has had a slow start to the season. It may be a stacked team, but those are the only two real returning stars for the team. The rest are also freshman. And he only leads in SOG by two, so I think there's some regression coming for him points-wise compared to some of his teammates.

I will maintain that Fantilli is like a slightly better version of Beniers, which is a very good player. Eichel was one of the best prospects of the past 10 years. He was only second because he was in the same draft as the best prospect of the past generation. It's widely viewed that he was neck and neck with players like Dahlin and Matthews at the same point for best of the past generation at the time of the draft. Fantilli is not that.

Where does Bedard fit in? Saying he's clear of Eichel by some margin would suggest he's generational. To me, that makes no sense. It's like some people just want to be excited, so they call this guy generational. He's very good, but he has obvious weaknesses that make him not generational. He's 5'9 and he's not a blazing skater. Thats enough. Generational players are built in a lab. Bedard has some weaknesses. McDavid/Crosby/Lindros/Lemieux didn't.

I would put Bedard on the same level as players like Eichel, Matthews, and Dahlin for next best pre-draft prospect of the past 10 years, but is he better? Sorry, I'm taking him last compared to those players. 5'9 compared to a bunch of guys 6'2/6'3 matters.

100%.

I’m not seeing a generational talent with any of the 2023 draftees.
A Matthews-level player is a more likely scenario for one of Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, etc; which is still nothing to scoff at.

How soon we forget just how abnormal Eichel’s draft season was and how highly touted Matthews was.

2023 is amazingly deep. But will it produce a McDavid, Ovechkin, Crosby level player? Not seeing it at all.

 

[prongertheman9]

He played there in his draft year as a 17/18 year old.

You guys are acting like the age discrepancy thing is some big gotcha. They'd be 9 months apart in the same draft.

Draft year means a lot less than birth year. Especially in this case where Bedard is a summer birthday vs McDavid who is 2 weeks removed from being a ‘96

 

[Hanji]

Eichel didn’t play in hockey east at the same age lol…

The 9 month discrepancy means little considering Eichel was playing much older, mature, and, frankly, better competition than what Bedard is currently facing.

For this reason it also makes Fantilli’s current production much more impressive than Bedard’s. But we’ll see if Fantilli can keep it up.