Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[Yukon Joe]

I know NBA or MLB will never expand to Edmonton or Calgary, but I think they can support them if they do.

If New Orleans can have NFL and NBA team, I think Edmonton or Calgary can have two.

Vancouver and Montreal definitely can.

So it always shocked me how quickly the NBA gave up on Vancouver - only 6 seasons? All of which the team did terribly? But I guess it's like Atlanta - the team was owned by the same group as the arena and the Canucks - if they didn't want to own them there was no where else for them to play.

The problem with the MLB in Canada is the weather. Games in April or October can get COLD. Toronto does it by having a retractable roof. Expos played in a dome, but I did actually see an Expos game at the Big O - while I was excited to be there is had zero charm. With the City of Montreal signing up for almost a billion dollars of renovations to the Big O there's no chance of them getting a retractable roof stadium built (and I can't imagine anyone wanting to own a baseball team that plays in the Big O).

And remember - Edmonton and Calgary (and Ottawa, and Winnipeg) - have two pro teams. The CFL doesn't have the glitz of those other leagues but they're pretty well supported in those cities.

 

[Yukon Joe]

People like him say its bush league because players are always putting Edmonton and Calgary on NTC's and NMC's.

The thing about no-trade lists is that somebody is going to get listed. Teams on no-trade lists are typically teams that 1. are in cold cities 2. aren't doing well and 3. have high tax rates, or some combination thereof.

If the league didn't exist in Edmonton then it would be, Detroit being listed near the top. Or Buffalo, or Denver, or wherever.

 

[KevFu]

The talk about any market with a 50-mile radius of an existing team is futile.

All the two-team markets had reasons for the existing teams accepting a new league member that just do not exist now because the dollars are simply too high. There's no mergers forcing actions, or rival-league agreements brokering deals or a massive 2-team market being empty exist anymore.

The franchise values and TV deals were low enough for the Ducks/Devils to happen pre-cable and/or pre-streaming.

The FIRST owner of any new team has to pay a price he can never make back, which makes it a non-starter. It's the SECOND owner who'd get rich in Ontario, so everyone wants to be the second owner and not the first.

The ONLY WAY to get a team in an existing market is to force territorial rights fees upon a new owner as condition of a franchise sale. It's absolutely pointless to talk about a second Ontario team unless the Leafs are up for sale.

 

[dj4aces]

All the two-team markets had reasons for the existing teams accepting a new league member that just do not exist now because the dollars are simply too high. There's no mergers forcing actions, or rival-league agreements brokering deals or a massive 2-team market being empty exist anymore.

The franchise values and TV deals were low enough for the Ducks/Devils to happen pre-cable and/or pre-streaming.

If I recall correctly, the league also had to convince the Rangers ownership directly to allow the Islanders to move in, as well as convince the NYR/NYI/PHI ownerships for NJD and the LAK ownership to allow ANA.

If the league went to bat for... say, a prospective team in Hamilton, for example, I don't think they'll get very far with either TOR or BUF. "You want to do what? Sorry... you're breaking up, please repe-- *click*" The markets are just too valuable for any owner to willingly allow another within it at any price. In this way, I don't the league is turned off by the idea of putting a franchise in Hamilton on its face, it'll have zero real leverage or reason to give MLSE and Pegula when they inevitably ask "why".

 

[BMN]

The talk about any market with a 50-mile radius of an existing team is futile.

Re: the radius, I've often wondered if anyone in a drunken-businessfolk-shooting-the-breeze-convo has ever pitched London, ON.

(Not saying it would work, but from time to time it's a thought exercise).

 

[edog37]

There was a second team in Montreal for over a decade. The Montreal Maroons. I believe they were fairly successful on the ice, but they were geared to Montreal's Anglophone community. Off the ice, they struggled, and had to move during the recession. This was at a time when Montreal was not only the largest city in Canada, but the business center as well.

A second team in Montreal would not work. The Canadians are too big, and the city is not large enough to support two teams.

Not big enough? It’s the 10th largest city in North America.

 

[dj4aces]

Not big enough? It’s the 10th largest city in North America.

The market might arguably be big enough, but if the Habs ownership doesn't want a prospective ownership to bring back the Wanderers or the Maroons, it's just not happening.

 

[Jets4Life]

Not big enough? It’s the 10th largest city in North America.

,,,and not big enough. A second team would not work in Chicago, which has twice the population of Montreal. The same goes for pretty much any US metro area except LA and NYC.

Toronto is the only place I can see having the population and money to support a second team in the GTA.

 

[joelef]

,,,and not big enough. A second team would not work in Chicago, which has twice the population of Montreal. The same goes for pretty much any US metro area except LA and NYC.

Toronto is the only place I can see having the population and money to support a second team in the GTA.

Not with the demographic changes of toronto

 

[Jets4Life]

Not with the demographic changes of toronto

Yes, only White people watch hockey (*rolls eyes*)

 

[joelef]

Yes, only White people watch hockey (*rolls eyes*)

Yes, only White people watch hockey (*rolls eyes*)

I never said no minorities watch hockey just not enough of them to make a 2nd gta viable. Just look at Brampton hockey failures.

 

[Yukon Joe]

If I recall correctly, the league also had to convince the Rangers ownership directly to allow the Islanders to move in, as well as convince the NYR/NYI/PHI ownerships for NJD and the LAK ownership to allow ANA.

LA allowing Anaheim was quite straight-forward. LA was owned by Bruce McNall. The $50 mil expansion fee went 100% to McNall who desperately needed money. It wasn't enough though, since McNall still defaulted on a loan in 1993 and had to sell the Kings.

The NJD relocation (and NYI expansion) was a lot further back in time - the 1970s. Local TV revenue wasn't a thing back then, so local teams had less reasons to object. They still had to share the local market though so I'm a little fuzzier on exactly why the league still allowed it. I know for the Isles it was to prevent the WHA from coming to town. I know there was some compensation paid to the Rangers, Isles and Flyers for the Rockies moving to Jersey.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Yes, only White people watch hockey (*rolls eyes*)

So, you have to be sensitive about this topic. I certainly know POC who are avid hockey fans. I also know lots of white people, born and raised in this country, who don't care about hockey.

But I don't think it's at all controversial to say that new immigrants to the US or Canada are almost certainly coming from countries where hockey is not popular, and thus aren't hockey fans.

Now look that can change over time - the longer someone stays in NAm the more they start to become like the rest of the populatin, which includes sports. Second generation immigrants are much more still like the overall population.

 

[dj4aces]

LA allowing Anaheim was quite straight-forward. LA was owned by Bruce McNall. The $50 mil expansion fee went 100% to McNall who desperately needed money. It wasn't enough though, since McNall still defaulted on a loan in 1993 and had to sell the Kings.

The NJD relocation (and NYI expansion) was a lot further back in time - the 1970s. Local TV revenue wasn't a thing back then, so local teams had less reasons to object. They still had to share the local market though so I'm a little fuzzier on exactly why the league still allowed it. I know for the Isles it was to prevent the WHA from coming to town. I know there was some compensation paid to the Rangers, Isles and Flyers for the Rockies moving to Jersey.

Right... but from what I recall of hearing about those, the league still had to negotiate and work with the various teams to get the deals done. Today, with these large TV deals and just the state of major league sports in general, I don't see a scenario where a TOR2/GTA will ever be allowed to exist.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Right... but from what I recall of hearing about those, the league still had to negotiate and work with the various teams to get the deals done. Today, with these large TV deals and just the state of major league sports in general, I don't see a scenario where a TOR2/GTA will ever be allowed to exist.

Rogers Media, part owner of MLSE still has a $5.2 billion contract with the NHL. That gives Rogers A LOT of sway with the NHL, so it's almost impossible to imagine the league doing something Rogers/TML is opposed to.

People have speculated a GTA2 could happen if there was a Bell/Rogers split in ownership of MLSE. Which yes, theoretically - but since any GTA2 team would be successful, but would still forever be in the shadow of TML, I can't imagine either of the media giants wanting to give up their part ownership of TML in favour of a GTA2.

 

[joelef]

So, you have to be sensitive about this topic. I certainly know POC who are avid hockey fans. I also know lots of white people, born and raised in this country, who don't care about hockey.

But I don't think it's at all controversial to say that new immigrants to the US or Canada are almost certainly coming from countries where hockey is not popular, and thus aren't hockey fans.

Now look that can change over time - the longer someone stays in NAm the more they start to become like the rest of the populatin, which includes sports. Second generation immigrants are much more still like the overall population.

So, you have to be sensitive about this topic. I certainly know POC who are avid hockey fans. I also know lots of white people, born and raised in this country, who don't care about hockey.

But I don't think it's at all controversial to say that new immigrants to the US or Canada are almost certainly coming from countries where hockey is not popular, and thus aren't hockey fans.

Now look that can change over time - the longer someone stays in NAm the more they start to become like the rest of the populatin, which includes sports. Second generation immigrants are much more still like the overall population.

look at the Canadian national men’s basketball and soccer teams which are filled with second and third generation Canadians and then look at the men national hockey team. There not liking the sport.

 

[ponder719]

People have speculated a GTA2 could happen if there was a Bell/Rogers split in ownership of MLSE. Which yes, theoretically - but since any GTA2 team would be successful, but would still forever be in the shadow of TML, I can't imagine either of the media giants wanting to give up their part ownership of TML in favour of a GTA2.

The only way I could foresee this happening is if the breakup deal is that one of the two gets the Maple Leafs, Marlies, Air Canada Centre, and the other hockey properties, the other gets the Toros (for lack of another name) and every other asset owned by MLSE (The Argos, Raptors, Toronto FC, and the minor league teams and stadiums.)

That would feel like a relatively balanced split between the two, allowing one to streamline and focus on the big dog in town, and the other to maintain a broader portfolio while establishing a new state of the art venue for the Raptors and the new hockey team.

 

[EXTRAS]

I want a vancouver island team. It has a population of close to a million and population is growing quite quickly.

 

[aqib]

If I recall correctly, the league also had to convince the Rangers ownership directly to allow the Islanders to move in, as well as convince the NYR/NYI/PHI ownerships for NJD and the LAK ownership to allow ANA.

If the league went to bat for... say, a prospective team in Hamilton, for example, I don't think they'll get very far with either TOR or BUF. "You want to do what? Sorry... you're breaking up, please repe-- *click*" The markets are just too valuable for any owner to willingly allow another within it at any price. In this way, I don't the league is turned off by the idea of putting a franchise in Hamilton on its face, it'll have zero real leverage or reason to give MLSE and Pegula when they inevitably ask "why".

The Kings got half the Ducks expansion fee. McNall did it because he needed the cash (being a fraud and all).

There is a limit on the number of franchises that the league can have. So the league is still in the mode where it wants to go to places where they can get fans new to the sport vs serving people who are already fans of the game.

 

[BigRedPillow]

The only way I could foresee this happening is if the breakup deal is that one of the two gets the Maple Leafs, Marlies, Air Canada Centre, and the other hockey properties, the other gets the Toros (for lack of another name) and every other asset owned by MLSE (The Argos, Raptors, Toronto FC, and the minor league teams and stadiums.)

That would feel like a relatively balanced split between the two, allowing one to streamline and focus on the big dog in town, and the other to maintain a broader portfolio while establishing a new state of the art venue for the Raptors and the new hockey team.

The fundamental problem with this is that at this point, the Leafs are no longer the "big dog in town". The Raptors are worth 50% more than the Leafs. It makes it very hard to do. I did it a few years ago here, but it had to involve the Raptors/NHL2 ownership basically "overpaying" the NHL expansion fee and the Leafs ownership also taking Toronto FC, and neither side gets the arena (it stays with Tannenbaum).

 

[Yukon Joe]

The fundamental problem with this is that at this point, the Leafs are no longer the "big dog in town". The Raptors are worth 50% more than the Leafs. It makes it very hard to do. I did it a few years ago here, but it had to involve the Raptors/NHL2 ownership basically "overpaying" the NHL expansion fee and the Leafs ownership also taking Toronto FC, and neither side gets the arena (it stays with Tannenbaum).

This is going far afield but - Raptors having a higher valuation has to do with the overall valuation of NBA franchises, and not so much the comparative success of the Raptors versus the TML. According to Forbes Raptors have only a slight advantage in revenue ($305 mil versus $281 mil), which certainly doesn't otherwise justify a valuation 50% higher. ($4.1B versus $2.8B).

Of course these are all Forbes numbers, so take with a whole lot of salt.

 

[ForumNamePending]

Since we are now throwing around half baked scenarios that could lead to a second team in Toronto/the GTA/southern Ontario, I'll offer up mine...

Rogers and Bell go halfsies (or even thirdsies with Amazon or something) on the next NHL deal, but want/need additional content that can both fill out their respective national TV schedules AND draw substantial viewership... The two telcos cut a deal with the league, and each other, and BOOM! Toronto II is born!

 

[Yukon Joe]

look at the Canadian national men’s basketball and soccer teams which are filled with second and third generation Canadians and then look at the men national hockey team. There not liking the sport.

I mean there's a lot going on there.

1. Most importantly, being a fan doesn't necessarily mean you or your family play the game - in particular at a high level.

2. Basketball in particular - how shall I say it, there's a particular affinity for basketball within black culture. You can look at the US National Basketball team also and see almost no white men on it - doesn't mean basketball isn't popular amongst whites.

3. As I said it's a process. I'm very involved in minor hockey. Absolutely most of the kids are white whose families have been in Canada a long time. But there's more kids than you'd think involved from immigrant communities - or at least second or third generation immigrant families. I talk with their parents - they're definitely hockey fans.

Since we are now throwing around half baked scenarios that could lead to a second team in Toronto/the GTA/southern Ontario, I'll offer up mine...

Rogers and Bell go halfsies (or even thirdsies with Amazon or something) on the next NHL deal, but want/need additional content that can both fill out their respective national TV schedules AND draw substantial viewership... The two telcos cut a deal with the league, and each other, and BOOM! Toronto II is born!

TML gets good viewership numbers - but would GTA2?

Plus who in this scenario is going to own it - Amazon? Same ownership group can't own two teams.

 

[Yukon Joe]

There is a limit on the number of franchises that the league can have. So the league is still in the mode where it wants to go to places where they can get fans new to the sport vs serving people who are already fans of the game.

Said it before, I'll say it again - the NHL is going to places where they can get the most money. Not where they can "get new fans" or "serve existing fans".

And that's actually the problem with GTA2. Any expansion fees in a GTA2 would be almost entirely taken up but the TML, and maybe the Sabres. So the rest of the owners get nothing, or next to nothing - and now they have to split revenue 33 ways instead of 32.

Whereas if they expand to, say, Atlanta, the $1.2 bil (or whatever) means each team gets a cool $37.5 mil - and it's not subject to revenue sharing.

 

[ForumNamePending]

TML gets good viewership numbers - but would GTA2?

Plus who in this scenario is going to own it - Amazon? Same ownership group can't own two teams.

Relative to the Leafs (or Canadiens)? No. Relative to the rest of the league? Yes.

Like I said, this is just half baked spit balling, but I'm looking at this from the standpoint that Bell and Rogers value increasing content and viewership for their media properties, over who actually gets to own the Leafs. One way to do that would be to have more Canadian teams.

Now who out of Bell and Rogers ends up with the Leafs, and who gets "stuck" with GTA2?... Well I'm the "big ideas" guy, not the "hammer out the details" guy.