Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[Golden_Jet]

If the NHL was to go to 36-40 teams at some point would it ne necessary to stick with an East-West alignment or could they do something like the NFL/MLB where both conferences are spread out. So if you had 40 teams. You could have 2 20 team conferences, and each conference have 4 five team divisions?

I don’t see it, NFL plays once a week, and during the day a lot, so east coast teams don’t have to stay up late, and travel isn’t a big deal, and they only on average have one road game every 2 weeks.
baseball goes into cities for 3-4 days, travel not as big an issue.

NBA and hockey don’t, I would say close to zero chance of that happening.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The biggest explosion happened in the 90s for sure, but aside from a post-Jordan slump, the NBA in particular and the sport in general has been making big growths both domestically and abroad. With the potential caveat of cricket due to its overwhelming popularity in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh boosting overall numbers drastically, basketball is likely the second most popular sport globally already, and probably has surpassed baseball as the second sport in the US, too. Hard to imagine that being relinguished as societies become more urbanized, making basketball's compact playing space, flexibility in numbers of players, and the inexpensive nature of it all positive indicators for future growth even still.

basketball would be quite a bit behind soccer / football in popularity.

 

[tucker3434]

The Winterhawks play at Veterans Memorial Coliseum. It's next door to the Moda Center.

I'm not sure the Moda Center even has an ice plant anymore. I heard it was damaged. It's been a few years since anything ice related was there as far as I know.

Fair enough. I missed that the Winterhawks were gone. Still, unless they went through a basketball-focused remodel since then similar to State Farm Arena, it’s probably a fairly easy fix.

 

[aqib]

Fair enough. I missed that the Winterhawks were gone. Still, unless they went through a basketball-focused remodel since then similar to State Farm Arena, it’s probably a fairly easy fix.

Jody Allen has been remarkably slow at selling the teams. The Jets and Bills sold within months of the owners passing away, Pistons and Rams were done within 2 years, the Senators within a year and a half, etc. She just likes being owner and wants to hang on as long as she can.

 

[dj4aces]

Jody Allen has been remarkably slow at selling the teams. The Jets and Bills sold within months of the owners passing away, Pistons and Rams were done within 2 years, the Senators within a year and a half, etc. She just likes being owner and wants to hang on as long as she can.

Out of curiosity, is it more a matter of civic pride? Perhaps the Trailblazers, if sold, could then be relocated, and she doesn't want that to happen?

Anything about Portland is well outside my wheelhouse, and I know very little about estates and the legal wrangling that can come with them, so this is a genuine question. What other reasons would there be to hang on to the team and *not* sell (or buy it herself), if not for a threat of relocation? If it's simply her enjoying being a team owner, why not move to formally acquire the franchise from the estate, and arrange it with the other heirs to see that goal met?

It feels really odd to have the Trailblazers, Moda, and any other entities Paul Allen controlled still in ownership limbo this long after his passing.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

QC/Saskatoon could easily do that SLC seating chart $$ IMO, even with the dollar difference.

Upper bowl is dirt cheap. and lower is largely under $200.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Here my take on the Quebec argument that there is not potential for growth.
Well yes It might be correct.

But there a twist, Hockey in Canada is on track to also be dislodged from being the sport with the most popularity. Soccer is gaining ground especially with the younger generation. Sure there is still die-hard fans in Quebec city that watch regardless, but they are not getting younger, and a town without a team to cheers for is much less likely to create the emotional connection with a sport they will eventually watch and spend on.

Am not from Quebec city nor I even intend to live there but it sadden me that while the city of Quebec do so much to move the needle in term of developing the game for the kids at the international level, they get snubbed for lesser prospect.

Regardless you believe in it or not, this video is worth watching only for the smiles on the kids faces. (and Mark )

 

[Felonious Python]

The talk about any market with a 50-mile radius of an existing team is futile.

All the two-team markets had reasons for the existing teams accepting a new league member that just do not exist now because the dollars are simply too high. There's no mergers forcing actions, or rival-league agreements brokering deals or a massive 2-team market being empty exist anymore.

The franchise values and TV deals were low enough for the Ducks/Devils to happen pre-cable and/or pre-streaming.

The FIRST owner of any new team has to pay a price he can never make back, which makes it a non-starter. It's the SECOND owner who'd get rich in Ontario, so everyone wants to be the second owner and not the first.

The ONLY WAY to get a team in an existing market is to force territorial rights fees upon a new owner as condition of a franchise sale. It's absolutely pointless to talk about a second Ontario team unless the Leafs are up for sale.

The New Jersey Nets to Brooklyn would be an interesting case to look into. It's a relatively recent move, and they just as well could have focused on moving to KC or Pittsburgh.

Teams like the Leafs, Rangers, Knicks, Yankees, etc. have national and global fan bases. On that scale, the Islanders, Nets, and Mets can't quite compare.

Ticket pricing is flexible these days. If the Knicks could charge more money to see the Brooklyn Nets over the NJ Nets, then they get something out of it as well.

 

[Brodie]

I would like to see the league go to 40 and split in two with pro/rel and a league cup because I think it would dramatically up interest while increasing the amount of content on offer and having a plausible base for expansion up to 60 in the far future

 

[aqib]

Out of curiosity, is it more a matter of civic pride? Perhaps the Trailblazers, if sold, could then be relocated, and she doesn't want that to happen?

Anything about Portland is well outside my wheelhouse, and I know very little about estates and the legal wrangling that can come with them, so this is a genuine question. What other reasons would there be to hang on to the team and *not* sell (or buy it herself), if not for a threat of relocation? If it's simply her enjoying being a team owner, why not move to formally acquire the franchise from the estate, and arrange it with the other heirs to see that goal met?

It feels really odd to have the Trailblazers, Moda, and any other entities Paul Allen controlled still in ownership limbo this long after his passing.

Phil Knight made an offer and they didn't even counter. He would never move them. So that wouldn't be an issue.

I don't think she has the money to acquire the team herself. From everything I've seen she help set up Vulcan to manage the family investments. So I she wouldn't have her "own wealth" because he was the one who co-founded Microsoft so the "family money" came from him. I am sure he paid her very well to be the manager of Vulcan and probably left her a decent amount in his will. His will specified the teams and basically everything else would be sold and the bulk of the money given to charity.

So far they have sold off a lot of real estate (he had a multiple estates all over the world that were worth tens of millions each and those take a while to sell as well as development projects), a huge art collection which had several pieces which were worth over $100M each. The teams would really be the easiest to sell. The Seahawks had a clause in their stadium deal with the state that they would have had to pay 10% of the sales price if they had sold before May of this year. So that explains why the Seahawks haven't been sold yet, but then she went ahead and changed coaches which indicates that she is probably planning to own the team for a while because any coach would have asked about that situation.

I remember reading after Paul Allen died that she really liked basketball and having the team. The other potential factors are the new TV deal (which would increase the value) and possible expansion which would result in a a lot of fees.

 

[dj4aces]

Phil Knight made an offer and they didn't even counter. He would never move them. So that wouldn't be an issue. <snip>

Thanks for the insight, it's appreciated! The issue of Paul Allen's estate hasn't touched any of the circles I follow or am a part of (particularly because I'm not a basketball fan), so I genuinely don't know enough to have an informed opinion on what's going on there... but it does at least sound like she's either fond of ownership, or more likely, she wants a slice of that sweet expansion/TV money to inflate franchise values and sell for maximum profit.

Time will tell what actually happens and when, I suppose.

 

[aqib]

The talk about any market with a 50-mile radius of an existing team is futile.

All the two-team markets had reasons for the existing teams accepting a new league member that just do not exist now because the dollars are simply too high. There's no mergers forcing actions, or rival-league agreements brokering deals or a massive 2-team market being empty exist anymore.

The franchise values and TV deals were low enough for the Ducks/Devils to happen pre-cable and/or pre-streaming.

The FIRST owner of any new team has to pay a price he can never make back, which makes it a non-starter. It's the SECOND owner who'd get rich in Ontario, so everyone wants to be the second owner and not the first.

The ONLY WAY to get a team in an existing market is to force territorial rights fees upon a new owner as condition of a franchise sale. It's absolutely pointless to talk about a second Ontario team unless the Leafs are up for sale.

Huh? So the first owners of the Predators and Wild didn't make their money back?

Look as much as I want a second team in Southern Ontario I know its not going to happen. Not because there aren't people willing to pay the price, its because it doesn't fit with the leagues strategy.

As far as the Devils example goes they paid $9 million to the Rangers, $5 million to the Islanders, and $2.5M to the Flyers. They paid the Jets $5 million to get them to agree to move divisions. They also paid $10 million in relocation fees to the league. By comparison the purchase price was $8.8 million. So a deal was eventually done. Where McMullen got a the team in New Jersey for about $40 million and everyone else got compensated for what they "lost"

A Southern Ontario team would have to pay the Leafs and maybe the Sabres depending on the location. Now since the Leafs are owned by two cable companies there could be a Washington Nationals situation where they get something involvement in broadcasting rights. However again the NHL isn't interested in putting a team there.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Huh? So the first owners of the Predators and Wild didn't make their money back?

Look as much as I want a second team in Southern Ontario I know its not going to happen. Not because there aren't people willing to pay the price, its because it doesn't fit with the leagues strategy.

As far as the Devils example goes they paid $9 million to the Rangers, $5 million to the Islanders, and $2.5M to the Flyers. By comparison they paid the Jets $5 million to get them to agree to move divisions. So a Southern Ontario team would have to pay the Leafs and maybe the Sabres depending on the location. Now since the Leafs are owned by two cable companies there could be a Washington Nationals situation where they get something involvement in broadcasting rights. However again the NHL isn't interested in putting a team there.

So I could imagine a scenario where it's possible that Bell / Rogers / Tanenbaum would agree to take a $1 billion territorial fee. That's a lot of money to split up.

But then the problem is - what's in it for the rest of the league? They're now NOT getting that money in expansion fees, so why do they want to split up revenue 33 ways instead of 32?

I think the Anaheim Ducks situation is instructive. Anaheim expanded and LA Kings (Bruce McNall) got half of the expansion fee. McNall needed money, which is why he agreed.

The NHL though - it was considered a big "get" at the time because Disney (which owned ABC/ESPN) was buying into the league. So the league was willing to forego the other $25 million.

 

[aqib]

So I could imagine a scenario where it's possible that Bell / Rogers / Tanenbaum would agree to take a $1 billion territorial fee. That's a lot of money to split up.

But then the problem is - what's in it for the rest of the league? They're now NOT getting that money in expansion fees, so why do they want to split up revenue 33 ways instead of 32?

I think the Anaheim Ducks situation is instructive. Anaheim expanded and LA Kings (Bruce McNall) got half of the expansion fee. McNall needed money, which is why he agreed.

The NHL though - it was considered a big "get" at the time because Disney (which owned ABC/ESPN) was buying into the league. So the league was willing to forego the other $25 million.

So lets say the expansion fee in the next round was $1.4B you could make Southern Ontario $1.4+$1B indemnification. For other teams the upside is you have a net contributor to revenue sharing.

Again the league won't even consider it. So even if you were a dude with the cash and passion to make it happen, you still won't even bother trying because the league has already indicated its not a consideration.

Regarding Anaheim, its pretty obvious that franchise is pretty much a waste.

 

[Yukon Joe]

So lets say the expansion fee in the next round was $1.4B you could make Southern Ontario $1.4+$1B indemnification. For other teams the upside is you have a net contributor to revenue sharing.

Again the league won't even consider it. So even if you were a dude with the cash and passion to make it happen, you still won't even bother trying because the league has already indicated its not a consideration.

The problem here is you'd need someone to pay $2.4 billion for a team. That's just so far beyond what franchise values are right now. According to Forbes the league's most valuable franchises are TML at $2.8, NYR at $2.6, MTL at $2.3 and LAK at $2.0.

A second team in Ontario is much more likely to be valued like NYI or NJD - $1.5 and $1.4 respectively.

So if you buy Toronto 2 - you've immediately just lost a billion dollars.

 

[aqib]

The problem here is you'd need someone to pay $2.4 billion for a team. That's just so far beyond what franchise values are right now. According to Forbes the league's most valuable franchises are TML at $2.8, NYR at $2.6, MTL at $2.3 and LAK at $2.0.

A second team in Ontario is much more likely to be valued like NYI or NJD - $1.5 and $1.4 respectively.

So if you buy Toronto 2 - you've immediately just lost a billion dollars.

If Utah is worth $1.2 billion. A future Arizona team is supposedly worth $1 billion (before you add the costs of an arena). Why would you put Southern Ontario 2 that low?

 

[Yukon Joe]

If Utah is worth $1.2 billion. A future Arizona team is supposedly worth $1 billion (before you add the costs of an arena). Why would you put Southern Ontario 2 that low?

Because it's the second tier team in that market. It's the same reason NYI and NJD are worth so much less than NYR. Or compare LAK ($2 b) to Anaheim ($0.98)

 

[tucker3434]

So lets say the expansion fee in the next round was $1.4B you could make Southern Ontario $1.4+$1B indemnification. For other teams the upside is you have a net contributor to revenue sharing.

Again the league won't even consider it. So even if you were a dude with the cash and passion to make it happen, you still won't even bother trying because the league has already indicated its not a consideration.

Regarding Anaheim, its pretty obvious that franchise is pretty much a waste.

I think the league would absolutely consider that. I think the problem is that at $2.4b, the ROI no longer makes sense for the potential owner.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

Here my take on the Quebec argument that there is not potential for growth.
Well yes It might be correct.

But there a twist, Hockey in Canada is on track to also be dislodged from being the sport with the most popularity. Soccer is gaining ground especially with the younger generation. Sure there is still die-hard fans in Quebec city that watch regardless, but they are not getting younger, and a town without a team to cheers for is much less likely to create the emotional connection with a sport they will eventually watch and spend on.

Am not from Quebec city nor I even intend to live there but it sadden me that while the city of Quebec do so much to move the needle in term of developing the game for the kids at the international level, they get snubbed for lesser prospect.

Regardless you believe in it or not, this video is worth watching only for the smiles on the kids faces. (and Mark )

Can't see Sucker ever surpassing Hockey in Canada...well maybe in a 100 thousand years maybe

 

[Golden_Jet]

So lets say the expansion fee in the next round was $1.4B you could make Southern Ontario $1.4+$1B indemnification. For other teams the upside is you have a net contributor to revenue sharing.

Again the league won't even consider it. So even if you were a dude with the cash and passion to make it happen, you still won't even bother trying because the league has already indicated its not a consideration.

Regarding Anaheim, its pretty obvious that franchise is pretty much a waste.

Absolutely the league considers this, not to mention there will be a changes to leafs ownership in 2 years, when Stavros gives up his portion of the team.

Down the line Sportsnet could own one team, and TSN the other one, as one example. One of those selling, their portion would cover the expansion fee portion.

License to print money another team in Toronto.

 

[dj4aces]

If Utah is worth $1.2 billion. A future Arizona team is supposedly worth $1 billion (before you add the costs of an arena). Why would you put Southern Ontario 2 that low?

It has to do with teams in the market, plus initial costs. Yeah, the value of TOR2 in this hypothetical would rise as the rest of the league rises, but the initial value of the team is only roughly what was paid for the franchise, not including indemnification. Therefore, a $1.4bn+$1bn indemnification is only valued at $1.4bn, and the brand new owner instantly loses $1bn right out of the gate, before selling a single ticket or piece of merch.

None of that is to say that, IF Leafs ownership changes and IF they decide they're open to a TOR2 team, and IF someone actually wants to follow through with this, that it wouldn't work. It could absolutely work in Toronto. It's not impossible to see all these stars align in such a way... it's just improbable. No matter how much of a TOR2 fan one might be, the economic realities cannot be ignored.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The fact regardless is that everyone's going to want to wet their beaks with expansion fees. None of the other governors are going to let a team get added if the lion's share of the dough goes to only one team, and Toronto is certainly not going to waive their territorial rights for a measley 1/32nd share.

So it would have to be a staggeringly massive amount to get Toronto and the NHL on board. I'm sure that the other owners would be fine with a 30th-ish share of a billion, but I have a hard time imagining that the Leafs wouldn't want at least an extra billion bucks of their own on top of that, if not much more.

So yeah, GTA team? Better start with $2 billion, minimum, as the floor to entry in expansion/indemnity fees to remotely be realistic. And at that point, you've assuredly priced out all but the absolutely craziest of folks that could theoretically bid, and even then you'd have to deal with a host of other startup costs including an arena. By that point, we might be talking north of $3 billion.

I just can't fathom to imagine a realistic scenario where a GTA team becomes a reality barring financial insanity by a bidder or a load of greedy powers that be suddenly being willing to turn down free money.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Can't see Sucker ever surpassing Hockey in Canada...well maybe in a 100 thousand years maybe

In term of popularity, probably not for a while.
In term of how many kids and adult playing the sport, its bound to happen before the end of the decade. give it a bit of time.

We use to mostly see kid playing baseball or softball come summertime. Soccer was an afterthought, well not anymore.

Its now more popular than hockey in the US, and each year the gap between the MLS and the MLB is shrinking. This is not me saying soccer is amazing, I played it for 10 years recreationally and the appeal is still meh to me. The median age of MLB fans is 57, 51 for the NFL, 46 for the NHL. Soccer is at 43.

If we don't wake up and drastically create a new generation of hockey fans then in 20 year from now, Soccer will be the most followed sport in Canada by interest.

 

[dj4aces]

Its now more popular than hockey in the US, and each year the gap between the MLS and the MLB is shrinking. This is not me saying soccer is amazing, I played it for 10 years recreationally and the appeal is still meh to me. The median age of MLB fans is 57, 51 for the NFL, 46 for the NHL. Soccer is at 43.

Well... first, can you source that? Not that I don't believe it (let's face it -- baseball is slower than paint drying), while even a 1-0 win by virtue of penalty kicks in soccer involves movement of some sort up and down the field, so soccer is a bit more entertaining than baseball in that way.

Second, your chart. Can you source that as well? Again, not saying I don't believe it, I'd just like to know where data comes from, how it was collected, etc. It does look like a chart that's a little aged though. I'll be 44 this month, and by most metrics, I'm considered Gen X, but just barely. Meanwhile, those who were born at the beginning of the Gen X era are 60 today.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I’d be all for Canada getting another team, but it seems like the expansion fee has priced out likely parties in QC and add to that an assured indemnity needs on top to Toronto for any GTA team and I doubt that anyone would reasonably fork over the dough necessary there.

so a new GTA team would need to "pay off" the Leafs ?


#36 = Mississauga !

Another Southwestern Ontario / GTA NHL team ? [Mississauga?]

Canada deserves another team in SouthWestern Ontario. Far enough away from Buffalo so they won't complain. Toronto can handle it. I'm thinking Mississauga. There has been enough growth in the USA. Time for Canada to get another team. I shouldn't have to wait for Bettman to die to see...

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