Speculation: Expansion Draft - Part II

[cbcwpg]

Seeing the ducks buy out Despare to help with expansion. Why hasn't it even been an option to buy Toby out ? No talk of this. Am I missing something ? To me this would solve a lot of problems for us

I don't mind discussion points... debate is a good thing...

But when you start a debate / discussion with the words " buyout " and " Winnipeg Jets " in the same sentence.. you lose the discussion.

TNSE will NEVER EVER buyout a player. If we didn't buyout the worst professional goalie on the planet, we are never going to buy out anyone.

 

[D1G]

Enstrom is nowhere near Buff in terms of penalties.

Byfuglien has led all NHL defensemen in minor penalites in each of his last 3 seasons.

Enstrom is nowhere near this amount.

Over the past 4 seasons Byfuglien has 167 minors, Enstrom 88.

If you have to invent a story to fit your narrative, your premise is likely false.

Where was Toby to other Dmen reguarding minors taken ?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Losing enstrom would not hurt as at all. Especially if we had a gm that would actually replace him

You keep ignoring the question about Toby waiving. It seems pretty obvious that you just don't like Enstrom as a player. Even in the poor-season he just had he was better than a 3rd pairing D. His numbers were very similar to Chris Tanev's. Tanev is being touted as a top pair D, worth an arm and a leg in trade.

You can make an argument for buying out Toby but not if he is willing to waive.

The 'buy him out' argument dies on 'who will we replace him with'. You seem to think that would be easy. It would not. There are no Dmen as good as him available in FA. There are some similar level ones with different sets of warts. Those would be expensive and there is no guarantee we could get them. There are lots of teams looking for Dmen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's the biggest 'if' in world history.

Not nearly as big as, what if Hitler had finished off Britain before attacking Russia?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Where was Toby to other Dmen reguarding minors taken ?

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...7&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=penaltiesMinor

 

[D1G]

You keep ignoring the question about Toby waiving. It seems pretty obvious that you just don't like Enstrom as a player. Even in the poor-season he just had he was better than a 3rd pairing D. His numbers were very similar to Chris Tanev's. Tanev is being touted as a top pair D, worth an arm and a leg in trade.

You can make an argument for buying out Toby but not if he is willing to waive.

The 'buy him out' argument dies on 'who will we replace him with'. You seem to think that would be easy. It would not. There are no Dmen as good as him available in FA. There are some similar level ones with different sets of warts. Those would be expensive and there is no guarantee we could get them. there are lots of teams looking for Dmen.

Ok point taken. I hope we waives and has a great year.

 

[Bristo]

Where was Toby to other Dmen reguarding minors taken ?

Let's look at PIM vs TOI and assess who's costing the team the most.

Buff - 117 PIM (with 2196 TOI on the season, that's ~3 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Trouba - 54 PIM (with 1498 TOI on the season, that's ~1.8 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Enstrom - 42 PIM (with 1314 TOI on the season, that's ~1.8 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Morrissey - 38PIM (with 1598 TOI on the season, that's ~1.2 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Chiarot - 33 PIM (with 904 TOI on the season, that's ~1.8 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Stuart - 27 PIM (with 523 TOI on the season, that's ~3 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Postma - 15 PIM (with 706 TOI on the season, that's ~1.2 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Myers - 13 PIM (with 244 TOI on the season, that's ~3 seconds in the box for every minute played.)
Melchiori - 8 PIM (with 331 TOI on the season, that's ~1.2 seconds in the box for every minute played.)

For the amount of time he's actually on the ice, Toby's pretty much average for Winnipeg Jets Dmen for taking penalties.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

You keep ignoring the question about Toby waiving. It seems pretty obvious that you just don't like Enstrom as a player. Even in the poor-season he just had he was better than a 3rd pairing D. His numbers were very similar to Chris Tanev's. Tanev is being touted as a top pair D, worth an arm and a leg in trade.

You can make an argument for buying out Toby but not if he is willing to waive.

The 'buy him out' argument dies on 'who will we replace him with'. You seem to think that would be easy. It would not. There are no Dmen as good as him available in FA. There are some similar level ones with different sets of warts. Those would be expensive and there is no guarantee we could get them. There are lots of teams looking for Dmen.

While I'm a Toby fan and I generally agree with your post, I just I don't think Tanev is a good comparison.

View attachment 95881
View attachment 95883

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While I'm a Toby fan and I generally agree with your post, I just I don't think Tanev is a good comparison.

View attachment 95881
View attachment 95883

I can't see your first chart.

Comparing to Tanev was just a quick take. Hero charts look remarkably similar compared to the 2 narratives. Both are elite at shot suppression. Not so much at anything else. That is using the last 3 years of data but heavily weighted for the most recent season so not too bad for a quick comparison. But Toby is terrible and Tanev is elite.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

I can't see your first chart.

Comparing to Tanev was just a quick take. Hero charts look remarkably similar compared to the 2 narratives. Both are elite at shot suppression. Not so much at anything else. That is using the last 3 years of data but heavily weighted for the most recent season so not too bad for a quick comparison. But Toby is terrible and Tanev is elite.

Not sure why you can't. The second one worked though? They're DTM's GAR for last season.

Tanev is totally a top pairing D-man. He's an older Trouba if you took out all of the offense. Toby is declining, but still serviceable. No way I'd move him in the near future.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

View attachment 95891

Is that working?

 

[Lempo]

Yes, it is.

 

[10Ducky10]

Maybe the Jets aren't protecting Myers?

 

[WPGChief]

Just a note at this penalty chatter: looking at minors/PIMs can sometimes be deceiving. A lot of "roughings" or what-have-you can be offsetting and near the end of a period/game just to get players off the ice and such, or the score can be something like 5-2. Penalties can sometimes be an oddity and quickly add up on the scoresheet though they don't necessarily matter in the actual game.

Unfortunately I don't think there's public data that looks at penalties more in depth, just what happens on the resulting PPs/SHs. If I have the time I might do one for the past season, but I'm still horribly inefficient with some things, and I would do it in a separate post.

I'll refer to one of my earliest posts/images with UFA+Jets D and their GAR numbers. Simply put, there isn't a lot of defenceman out there to replace and be as good as Enstrom's uncharacteristically odd/bad season if he were to move.

 

[D1G]

Just a note at this penalty chatter: looking at minors/PIMs can sometimes be deceiving. A lot of "roughings" or what-have-you can be offsetting and near the end of a period/game just to get players off the ice and such, or the score can be something like 5-2. Penalties can sometimes be an oddity and quickly add up on the scoresheet though they don't necessarily matter in the actual game.

Unfortunately I don't think there's public data that looks at penalties more in depth, just what happens on the resulting PPs/SHs. If I have the time I might do one for the past season, but I'm still horribly inefficient with some things, and I would do it in a separate post.

I'll refer to one of my earliest posts/images with UFA+Jets D and their GAR numbers. Simply put, there isn't a lot of defenceman out there to replace and be as good as Enstrom's uncharacteristically odd/bad season if he were to move.

I would take bigger and less injury prone for a little bit less skilled. A lot of D play is fighting in our own end around the boards. And I've seen Toby many many times each game get pushed off the puck. Or make a mistake to get the puck on away quick before he gets crunched in fear of getting injured. I just feel he is a defensive liability other then when he is defending a 2 on 1 for example

 

[WPGChief]

I would take bigger and less injury prone for a little bit less skilled. A lot of D play is fighting in our own end around the boards. And I've seen Toby many many times each game get pushed off the puck. Or make a mistake to get the puck on away quick before he gets crunched in fear of getting injured. I just feel he is a defensive liability other then when he is defending a 2 on 1 for example

My eye test says Stuart and Chiarot (and to a certain extent Melchiori) are taller, bigger, and less injury-prone than Enstrom but are worse offenders for making "a mistake to get the puck on away quick before he gets crunched in fear of getting injured".

But I'll still take the results of Enstrom and Morrissey over either of our eye tests.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

I would take bigger and less injury prone for a little bit less skilled. A lot of D play is fighting in our own end around the boards. And I've seen Toby many many times each game get pushed off the puck. Or make a mistake to get the puck on away quick before he gets crunched in fear of getting injured. I just feel he is a defensive liability other then when he is defending a 2 on 1 for example

Nope. Enstrom is an excellent defender. His intelligence, gap control and zone transitions more than make up for his lack of size.

You should read this:
https://jetsnation.ca/2017/05/25/pilots-logbook-toby-enstrom-2016-2017/

 

[Daximus]

Esntrom of this year was bad, Enstrom of the past is a great defender. I hope it was just a one off year for him and not the start of his decline in the defensive zone. His offensive decline is already happening.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

Esntrom of this year was bad, Enstrom of the past is a great defender. I hope it was just a one off year for him and not the start of his decline in the defensive zone. His offensive decline is already happening.

Still the Jets 4th best defender and VERY hard to replace without losing a quality forward in a trade or getting really lucky in the draft. Unless that happens, or Niku or Poolman are real studs, Toby should remain a Jet. Hopefully he bounces back next season.

 

[Daximus]

Still the Jets 4th best defender and VERY hard to replace without losing a quality forward in a trade or getting really lucky in the draft. Unless that happens, or Niku or Poolman are real studs, Toby should remain a Jet. Hopefully he bounces back next season.

Agree 100%.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Enstrom is intelligent with the puck , doesn't panic and is the target of " size " people.
He's a VERY good player coming off personal turmoil and injuries.
I hope he stays and we re sign him

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Enstrom is intelligent with the puck , doesn't panic and is the target of " size " people.
He's a VERY good player coming off personal turmoil and injuries.
I hope he stays and we re sign him

Resigning Enstrom would be good if we can get a good deal.
We'd need him to sign a really short contract (1, 2 or 3 years).
The longer the contract the less the AAV.

His new contract should be transitioning him to the 3rd pair and he can't be making 5 million etc a season. I wonder if he would sign for 2 years at 2.5 for example?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

View attachment 95891

Is that working?

Yes it is, but now I can't see the second one. OK, I remember what it showed, roughly. Using that measure, I agree. They are not close. The simpler measure I used shows them very close. It is primarily Toby's offense that has declined (disappeared!). His defensive play dropped off a bit last year but not dramatically, I think. A precise and detailed comparison of the 2 was completely unnecessary to my point. Toby is not a liability. The poster obviously doesn't like him. I'm sure I will soon read that Toby is too small - from that poster.

 

[D1G]

Yes it is, but now I can't see the second one. OK, I remember what it showed, roughly. Using that measure, I agree. They are not close. The simpler measure I used shows them very close. It is primarily Toby's offense that has declined (disappeared!). His defensive play dropped off a bit last year but not dramatically, I think. A precise and detailed comparison of the 2 was completely unnecessary to my point. Toby is not a liability. The poster obviously doesn't like him. I'm sure I will soon read that Toby is too small - from that poster.

There's certain things I remember from a hockey game. Great dangles or great assists. A huge hit or great defensive play. And as " that poster " I can honestly tell you I have seen Toby's size impact a defensive play negatively many times. Enough times that it peaks in my memory bank over any of his good plays. Other then his cool trick with his stick to catch a pass

 

[nobody important]

Not nearly as big as, what if Hitler had finished off Britain before attacking Russia?

Clearly, your attempt to invoke Godwin's Law has failed miserably.