Speculation: Expansion Draft - Part II

[Aavco Cup]

I admit I'm not 100 % certain and that's because the XD rules are released stupidly and through second hand sources to the public. Some say "Vegas can during the 72 hour window try sign any Free Agent, and if they do then that player counts as their pick", some say orherwise, and nowhere is the goddamn NHL official rule sheet on the matter available for downloading.

That NHL.com piece for example says that
"(t)he Expansion Club is permitted to sign a current or pending Free Agent on a Current Club's list of Available Players during the period between 10:01 a.m. ET on Sunday, June 18, and 9:59 a.m. ET on Wednesday, June 21". This is probably an excerpt from the Official Rules TM, and lets us understand that Vegas is not allowed to do that any other time after that, and that effectively they so couldn't reserve a Free Agent for themselves for later signing in the XD.

"If the Expansion Club signs a Restricted Free Agent from the Available List of a Current Club during said period, the Current Club will not be entitled to any compensation from the Expansion Club." So, signing one at any other period will make the Current Club entitled to the usual compensation of Draft picks?

What we get is diluted **** through journos who mess up the ever-so-important wordings, because of the 140-mark limit, and so we can't know if there are other FA specific clauses in the Official XD Rules that tell the terms of drafting a player as FA.

It's like the ELC bonus rules; trying to explain them in your own words as an abridged version only irreparably messes it up for everyone.

The FA window was added later after the initial rules were published.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

One of these things is not like the other.

I seriously can't believe how undervalued Perreault is around here.

7-3-1 / 4-4-1

Perreault was never being exposed. I don't care how badly some feel Chevy is, he has much more sense than that. I've been re-watching the last 12 games over the past week, with one left. Frenchie scored 17 points in these 11.

The guy was playing injured (yes again) in the first half, but when healthy he's a demon out there.

Lowry, Armia, Copp at their highest conceivable ceiling won't become what Perrault is.

Sadly he'll never be considered an iron man, but there should be no doubting his talent from our fanbase.

 

[Lempo]

The FA window was added later after the initial rules were published.

Yes, there has been changes to the rules after they were initially reported, but the quoted bits I understand are the official rules about signing the FAs as they currently stand and by which the Expansion Draft will be done. The 72 hour window is exactly defined here.

And the way I think the rules must be interpreted is that if the Expansion Club (=Vegas) is in them explicitly permitted to do X at time Y, it means e contrario that they are prohibited from doing X at any other time. So, they won't be signing anyone else's Free Agents like their own at any other time period except the one described here.

Unless there is a rule that explicitly allows Vegas to pick RFAs or UFAs in unsigned fashion in the Expansion Draft, it is my opinion that when the picks are announced, there will be 30 picks who all are signed to Vegas and 0 unsigned FA picks to whom Vegas holds the exclusive negotiation rights.

The wording of the 20 rule seem to be from time back in 2016 when things were up in air and when they still thought that Vegas would be allowed to pick FAs as part of the XD, but it seems to be since changed to Vegas being only allowed to sign FAs. Still, minimum of 20 picks still most likely has to be players under contract (= not Free Agents) at the start of the 72 hour window.

 

[D1G]

Hope Toby waived and we lose dano. That is something that makes me feel like Chevy will do what needs to be done. Not the path of least resistance like usual.

 

[ffh]

7-3-1 / 4-4-1

Perreault was never being exposed. I don't care how badly some feel Chevy is, he has much more sense than that. I've been re-watching the last 12 games over the past week, with one left. Frenchie scored 17 points in these 11.

The guy was playing injured (yes again) in the first half, but when healthy he's a demon out there.

Lowry, Armia, Copp at their highest conceivable ceiling won't become what Perrault is.

Sadly he'll never be considered an iron man, but there should be no doubting his talent from our fanbase.

just as many people confident they will protect lowry at 4-4. perreault seems to think he wasn't being protected at 4-4 what ever that's worth. I'm sure jets wouldn't lose either player because they are both very important to this team.

 

[Gil Fisher]

There is not a shred of evidence that Chevy would protect Lowry over Perreault. Lowry's name is mentioned nowhere. This is all just irrational fear.

Are there teams that will use this week to accumulate talent because they (effectively) have room on their protected lists?

 

[puck stoppa]

Sometimes it seems like Vegas is being to nice? I mean I get getting assets that makes sense but getting Perreault or Lowry is better than them getting Dano and a pick or another prospect no? I know they're looking to build but sometimes if I was them I wouldn't cut a team a deal, I'd just take their good players.

 

[surixon]

Sometimes it seems like Vegas is being to nice? I mean I get getting assets that makes sense but getting Perreault or Lowry is better than them getting Dano and a pick or another prospect no? I know they're looking to build but sometimes if I was them I wouldn't cut a team a deal, I'd just take their good players.

Well if neither of those players is available to be taken then they don't have much of an option but to take a Dano.

 

[Whileee]

Well if neither of those players is available to be taken then they don't have much of an option but to take a Dano.

Right. If Enstrom waives and the Jets protect 7-3-1 then LV gets to choose between Dano and Enstrom.

 

[northendninja]

Right. If Enstrom waives and the Jets protect 7-3-1 then LV gets to choose between Dano and Enstrom.

Is everyone of the consensus that even if Toby said no to waiving, the Jets would never buy him out?

 

[Gil Fisher]

Sometimes it seems like Vegas is being to nice? I mean I get getting assets that makes sense but getting Perreault or Lowry is better than them getting Dano and a pick or another prospect no? I know they're looking to build but sometimes if I was them I wouldn't cut a team a deal, I'd just take their good players.

Vegas can be passive and just wait to see what's protected and draft accordingly. That allows other teams to minimize their potential losses by making deals with each other this week. They may choose to be aggressive and secure certain players in trades themselves.

 

[ffh]

Right. If Enstrom waives and the Jets protect 7-3-1 then LV gets to choose between Dano and Enstrom.

not so convinced that the jets wont try and bribe vegas to not consider enstrom as a favor for waiving. think the jets know that vegas wouldn't take him but an extra draft pick just to be sure they don't take him. also not convinced dano is a slam dunk for vegas to take.

 

[KingBogo]

Sometimes it seems like Vegas is being to nice? I mean I get getting assets that makes sense but getting Perreault or Lowry is better than them getting Dano and a pick or another prospect no? I know they're looking to build but sometimes if I was them I wouldn't cut a team a deal, I'd just take their good players.

I think teams are being upfront with Vegas and Vegas is being upfront back. It is just as likely that when Chevy floated a 4-4-1 scenario LV said it when then select MP or Lowry. Chevy then has to make a choice to lose one of them or go 7-3-1 and risk losing Toby or Dano. It would seem LV is being too nice, but it can also favour them by being the conduit for trades through the XD process and gaining additional assets.

 

[surixon]

not so convinced that the jets wont try and bribe vegas to not consider enstrom as a favor for waiving. think the jets know that vegas wouldn't take him but an extra draft pick just to be sure they don't take him. also not convinced dano is a slam dunk for vegas to take.

Sure the Jets might have to pay a late pick to Vegas to take Dano but it's cost id pay. The fact is that Toby is likely not an attractive target for them. Aging player with a full NMC within year left on his deal. Dano on the otherhand is young, has some upside and is more portable.

 

[mcpw]

Sometimes it seems like Vegas is being to nice? I mean I get getting assets that makes sense but getting Perreault or Lowry is better than them getting Dano and a pick or another prospect no? I know they're looking to build but sometimes if I was them I wouldn't cut a team a deal, I'd just take their good players.

I think there are a bunch of trades between the old 30 teams being discussed that won't happen because a deal with Vegas is done instead. Hypothetical example:

- Chevy discusses a trade with Arizona: Perreault for a pick and a prospect, ARI would obviously protect Perreault as they have very few players worth protecting, almost all their good ones are exempt.
- Chevy tells McPhee: "you can choose to receive a pick from us for not selecting Perreault. If you decline, we will trade him to Arizona."
- If McPhee declines, he gets a mediocre player from ARI, and Dano from WPG.
- If McPhee accepts, he gets a mediocre player from ARI, and Dano and a pick from WPG. Sounds better, doesn't it?

I believe that's what went down with the situation in Anaheim. They had a trade ready - Vatanen for exempt assets to a team that has an essentially "unused" (occupied by a mediocre player) DMan protection slot. Then Murray told McPhee "you do a deal with us and get some good assets, or else we buyout Bieksa, trade Vatanen and you can choose between Kerdiles and Vermette and get nothing of value." And they worked something out. With that reasoning, I don't see the value going to Vegas in that deal being as much as the "Theodore+Steel" sort of package that some mainboard warriors want to see for the OUTRAGE of not selecting Vatanen/Manson. Vegas wins that deal for getting free assets, Anaheim wins the deal for not having to trade Vatanen, the team that loses the deal is the one that hoped for a cheap Vatanen acquisition.

 

[Whileee]

I think there are a bunch of trades between the old 30 teams being discussed that won't happen because a deal with Vegas is done instead. Hypothetical example:

- Chevy discusses a trade with Arizona: Perreault for a pick and a prospect, ARI would obviously protect Perreault as they have very few players worth protecting, almost all their good ones are exempt.
- Chevy tells McPhee: "you can choose to receive a pick from us for not selecting Perreault. If you decline, we will trade him to Arizona."
- If McPhee declines, he gets a mediocre player from ARI, and Dano from WPG.
- If McPhee accepts, he gets a mediocre player from ARI, and Dano and a pick from WPG. Sounds better, doesn't it?

I believe that's what went down with the situation in Anaheim. They had a trade ready - Vatanen for exempt assets to a team that has an essentially "unused" (occupied by a mediocre player) DMan protection slot. Then Murray told McPhee "you do a deal with us and get some good assets, or else we buyout Bieksa, trade Vatanen and you can choose between Kerdiles and Vermette and get nothing of value." And they worked something out. With that reasoning, I don't see the value going to Vegas in that deal being as much as the "Theodore+Steel" sort of package that some mainboard warriors want to see for the OUTRAGE of not selecting Vatanen/Manson. Vegas wins that deal for getting free assets, Anaheim wins the deal for not having to trade Vatanen, the team that loses the deal is the one that hoped for a cheap Vatanen acquisition.

That assumes Anaheim can buy out an injured Bieksa. If Anaheim still needs to protect Bieksa due to him NMC, trading Vatanen won't be enough to keep them from losing a big asset.

 

[mcpw]

That assumes Anaheim can buy out an injured Bieksa. If Anaheim still needs to protect Bieksa due to him NMC, trading Vatanen won't be enough to keep them from losing a big asset.

Or he could just have waived his NMC. He wasn't formally asked to waive on Monday because the deal had already been done.

 

[Lempo]

I think teams are being upfront with Vegas and Vegas is being upfront back.

This is pretty much what McPhee has already been reported saying about other GMs: "We are looking for ways to accommodate each other." They have apparently been pretty open about who they wish to have protected.

Going to the future, they are 31 guys trying to do the same job who well understand that some trades you "win" and some you "lose" because if you're dead set to win them all you soon have no one to deal with you. Amd it's a good thing because every now and then a player has to request a trade to specific city because of family reasons and it's nice that there's the goodwill to allow that to happen to no one's excess detriment.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

50% CF with the Jets. At least try to get the stats close to correct.

My point was that whatever the true valuation, I think many if not most teams would give up more value in trade for Lowry than for Perreault. I think that valuation is incorrect, but I think it's how most NHL teams would see it.

Remember, the Caps and Ducks let Perreault go for nothing, and the Jets, of all teams, were able to outbid every other team in free agency with a $3m offer. The Jets aren't the only team with a "valuation problem", and history indicates that they value Perreault higher than the rest of the NHL. That's why he's on the Jets.

Caps traded him to Anaheim. The return wasn't much but it was more than nothing. Ducks let him walk.

He's missed an avg of 15 gms/yr for the last 4 years. He's scored 42 pts/yr over that time. He's scored at a 53 pt pace over that time if he had played 82 games/yr.

Players with those kind of numbers are usually sold cheaply or allowed to walk. They aren't usually valued below 3rd/4th line C's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hope Toby waived and we lose dano. That is something that makes me feel like Chevy will do what needs to be done. Not the path of least resistance like usual.

Yes. It would give my confidence in Chevy a boost. It would be a good start to the off-season.

 

[surixon]

While I think the org and Maurice overvalue Lowry I feel many on here substantially undervalue him. His net contribution based on WAR was that if a second line centre not a fourth line one. The only thing he does at a fourth line rate is point production, he is significantly better than that in a number of other criteria. You can be as skeptical of him repeating his strong special teams play but the fact of the matter is that the analytics last year would support the Jets valuing him highly. That doesn't mean he should be valued over Perrault who has a greater impact but Lowry is no run of the mill 4th line C.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[CorgisPer60]

Huh. Gotta make sure we watch the NHL awards, huh? Fair enough. I'll watch for the first time ever.

 

[Rheged]

That's gonna make for some great theater for sure.

 

[surixon]

So then all the traded will flow after the team is announced. It's going to be a pretty anxious week.