It happens, sure, but I wouldn't say "a lot." You're also only cutting this one direction.
For example, literally 0 people here advocated for Seider being drafted. That's a pretty big miss.
Also, if you're consistently questioning moves from management in sports, no shit you're going to be right often. Most players don't become stars and overwhelmingly most teams fail to win a Cup. So being a doubter is a surefire way to feel you're some kind of wizard when the odds play out in your favor over the years.
Unless your team is simply incredible with no holes, which is almost never, being the squeaky wheel "critical thinker" will prove out correct more often than not.
It's one thing to be critical of specific circumstances, but sports fanbases always have a cohort critical 90% of the time then come swaggering in with, "I told you so!" It's lazy and meaningless, thus why people tune those folks out quickly.
I agree with you for the most part. Broken clock is right twice a day, etc.
But I also think people place way too much trust in sports team management, as if it takes advanced training and a PhD to do the job. NHL team hiring is mostly through nepotism and previous players.
I'll just stick with the draft as an example. You're right, I would never have picked Seider.
In 2016, I wanted Chychrun.
In 2017, Necas.
In 2018, I would have picked Zadina too, so made teh same mistake.
In 2019, I would have picked Zegras or Cozens at that spot.
In 2020, agreed with Raymond.
In 2021, agreed with Ed.
In 2022, Savoie.
In 2023. Benson.
So, you tell me - is Chychrun/Necas/Zegras better or worse than Cholowski/Rasmussen/Seider?
I'm wrong all the time. But so is management. I firmly believe there are many posters on these boards that could do a better job of evaluating talent than the guys employed by many NHL teams.