OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[Sens]

Society literally shutdown for 13 months and boomers don’t give a f***... just open everything up and let’s go


Absolutely pathetic...

 

[DrEasy]

I'm in the 50-55 range, and I'll totally take AZ if it's available and if nobody higher priority wants it. I imagine there's plenty of us out there. Just let's not have it go to waste, please!

 

[DrEasy]

I'll add that some of the conflict here between individual responsibility (staying at home, obeying rules, not being an idiot) vs the role of the government (making the right logistical decisions, taking the right preventative measures, allocating funds right, etc.) would ease if the public had better access to information. It'd be easier to understand governmental decisions and to follow rules (before I get attacked on this: I've followed every rule and I think everybody else should as well) if we knew precisely where the outbreaks are, how contagion took place, etc. I know some of it is hard to figure out, but try to give us specifics: how many outbreaks in warehouses, and in which ones? Schools? Supermarkets? Small shops? Restaurants? What is the percentage of contagion taking place there vs at multi-generational homes? What's the role of travel in spreading the disease?

We just seem to get this info in bits and pieces. We maybe hear about an outbreak in one restaurant kitchen, but we don't know how prevalent that is. We don't know if it the outbreak affected customers or not. We don't know if the outbreak at a warehouse was at a place where people were completely reckless or whether it happened despite all the precautions that were taken. We don't know how much of a role having schools open had in contagion. We hear about a case in PEI connected to travel outside the province, and we wonder how that stuff was allowed to happen. We hear about the Brazilian variant in BC and we wonder why only then does the government decide to add more restrictions on travel from that country.

I realize some of the secrecy is out of concern for the privacy of those concerned, and for preserving businesses, and maybe for fear of creating panic and discrimination of all kinds, but at some point maybe public interest trumps that stuff? How much worse does it need to get before more info is warranted? IMO people are second-guessing governmental guidelines and decisions in great part because they're kept in the dark mostly.

How much sick leave is needed vs is it better to allocate the funds to more vaccine logistics vs salvaging what's left of the budget deficit vs keeping the economy going vs ...? People have all sorts of opinions on that stuff but I bet most of it is just based on their respective political leanings and emotions. If we had concrete numbers to go by, if the political decisions could be motivated by data that everyone gets to see, I think people would be a lot more comfortable with decisions, even if they never bothered to actually look at the data. And the political debate would be more grounded in facts rather than pandering to their respective bases.

I mean we're in a hockey forum, and we debate the decisions of our favourite team's front office all the time, but even if we don't know all the ins and outs (internal budget, who wants to play here, which player is a d-bag) we can still rely on some facts and data to support our opinion (and plenty of hindsight ). Whereas here in the case of something that matters a lot more like our health, I don't think we have as much to go by. Or maybe I just haven't looked hard enough, but then again I just don't even see that kind of debate right in this thread either. I basically just follow the daily COVID numbers in aggregate in the city and the province, the more in-depth briefings we occasionally get at the provincial level and I hear about nurses and doctors telling us how bad the situation is (truly tragic and heartbreaking stuff). But I still don't know where stuff is happening, and I still have all the questions I asked in the first and second paragraphs of this already very long rant...

 

[JD1]

I'll add that some of the conflict here between individual responsibility (staying at home, obeying rules, not being an idiot) vs the role of the government (making the right logistical decisions, taking the right preventative measures, allocating funds right, etc.) would ease if the public had better access to information. It'd be easier to understand governmental decisions and to follow rules (before I get attacked on this: I've followed every rule and I think everybody else should as well) if we knew precisely where the outbreaks are, how contagion took place, etc. I know some of it is hard to figure out, but try to give us specifics: how many outbreaks in warehouses, and in which ones? Schools? Supermarkets? Small shops? Restaurants? What is the percentage of contagion taking place there vs at multi-generational homes? What's the role of travel in spreading the disease?

We just seem to get this info in bits and pieces. We maybe hear about an outbreak in one restaurant kitchen, but we don't know how prevalent that is. We don't know if it the outbreak affected customers or not. We don't know if the outbreak at a warehouse was at a place where people were completely reckless or whether it happened despite all the precautions that were taken. We don't know how much of a role having schools open had in contagion. We hear about a case in PEI connected to travel outside the province, and we wonder how that stuff was allowed to happen. We hear about the Brazilian variant in BC and we wonder why only then does the government decide to add more restrictions on travel from that country.

I realize some of the secrecy is out of concern for the privacy of those concerned, and for preserving businesses, and maybe for fear of creating panic and discrimination of all kinds, but at some point maybe public interest trumps that stuff? How much worse does it need to get before more info is warranted? IMO people are second-guessing governmental guidelines and decisions in great part because they're kept in the dark mostly.

How much sick leave is needed vs is it better to allocate the funds to more vaccine logistics vs salvaging what's left of the budget deficit vs keeping the economy going vs ...? People have all sorts of opinions on that stuff but I bet most of it is just based on their respective political leanings and emotions. If we had concrete numbers to go by, if the political decisions could be motivated by data that everyone gets to see, I think people would be a lot more comfortable with decisions, even if they never bothered to actually look at the data. And the political debate would be more grounded in facts rather than pandering to their respective bases.

I mean we're in a hockey forum, and we debate the decisions of our favourite team's front office all the time, but even if we don't know all the ins and outs (internal budget, who wants to play here, which player is a d-bag) we can still rely on some facts and data to support our opinion (and plenty of hindsight ). Whereas here in the case of something that matters a lot more like our health, I don't think we have as much to go by. Or maybe I just haven't looked hard enough, but then again I just don't even see that kind of debate right in this thread either. I basically just follow the daily COVID numbers in aggregate in the city and the province, the more in-depth briefings we occasionally get at the provincial level and I hear about nurses and doctors telling us how bad the situation is (truly tragic and heartbreaking stuff). But I still don't know where stuff is happening, and I still have all the questions I asked in the first and second paragraphs of this already very long rant...

I think the public is largely tuned out.

IMO part of that problem is over zealous doom and gloom modelling. They've been predicting these crazy ass numbers that have never come true. Now, here we are with wave three and the actual numbers are closer to the modelling than what we've historically seen....but modelling prediction numbers are shot. it's a boy cries wolf situation. Yes there are lots of variables but last year we were talking 16,000 covid cases in April, a number we didn't hit until very late in March. So govt credibility in terms of both what's coming and what to do about it are kinda shot.

And then there's the rollout. By birth certificate. By risk / potential exposure would in my view be more prudent

 

[DrEasy]

And then there's the rollout. By birth certificate. By risk / potential exposure would in my view be more prudent

On that front I understand that they wanted to protect the more vulnerable population first. But I agree that potential exposure is a different, orthogonal factor, that should have been prioritized as well.

 

[Micklebot]

On that front I understand that they wanted to protect the more vulnerable population first. But I agree that potential exposure is a different, orthogonal factor, that should have been prioritized as well.

To an extent it was prioritized in first responders, shared living settings like retirement homes had lower age limits and I think some hot spots too

Phase two adds essential workers who can't work from home, and people who live in high risk congregate settings.

They are doing a blended approach that probably leans more towards risk factors for being critically ill than risk of exposure, if you are limited in vaccines it seems prudent to prioritize the most vulnerable over the most likely to catch and spread it since you probably won't be able to make a dent in spread unless you have greater total vaccines.

I'm sure they gave a lot of thought to both approaches, whether they got it right, idk.

 

[foggyvisor]

I think the public is largely tuned out.

IMO part of that problem is over zealous doom and gloom modelling. They've been predicting these crazy ass numbers that have never come true.

You're basically excusing the politicians from ignoring their science table. Which is literally the main problem here. I can understand if the public felt this way thanks to horrible messaging and Dr. Williams regularly undermining his own science table and just generally blathering incoherently at his press conferences. However, it should not excuse the province from their massive failure.

Cases and ICU admissions were going up exponentially in March while the Province relaxed restrictions. That was actual data and not forecasted. Any bum could just extend the line on the current trend.

 

[Fandlauer]

 

[JD1]

You're basically excusing the politicians from ignoring their science table. Which is literally the main problem here. I can understand if the public felt this way thanks to horrible messaging and Dr. Williams regularly undermining his own science table and just generally blathering incoherently at his press conferences. However, it should not excuse the province from their massive failure.

Cases and ICU admissions were going up exponentially in March while the Province relaxed restrictions. That was actual data and not forecasted. Any bum could just extend the line on the current trend.

I'm not letting anyone off the hook for anything

The science has been wishy washy and changing from day one

This time the science appears right on wave 3 oncoming

I'm simply saying that the science is in blind squirrel territory to date and now that it looks like it's getting dialed in a bit better, it's being ignored

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

On that front I understand that they wanted to protect the more vulnerable population first. But I agree that potential exposure is a different, orthogonal factor, that should have been prioritized as well.

I think if you go back in time to January or early February, most people agreed with the plan for prioritization of vaccines. Health care workers and the elderly first. It made sense based on what had been the problem areas in the preceding 10 months or so.

But the new variants being more contagious and more severe for younger people has probably made that incorrect... in hindsight though.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I'm not letting anyone off the hook for anything

The science has been wishy washy and changing from day one

This time the science appears right on wave 3 oncoming

I'm simply saying that the science is in blind squirrel territory to date and now that it looks like it's getting dialed in a bit better, it's being ignored

Just being nitpicky, but I think using the term “the science” here is too broad a term. You’re referring primarily to the case forecasts, which is just a single narrow branch of “the science”....

I for one would be very interested to see the models they used for their forecasts . How sophisticated are they and what are their underlying assumptions?
It’s more intellectual curiosity though. I wouldn’t really change my assessment of the current situation based on whether I agreed or disagreed with the math they’re using.

 

[DJB]

Just as an FYI, I'm aware of someone in the City that tested positive for all 3 variants.

 

[Fandlauer]

Just as an FYI, I'm aware of someone in the City that tested positive for all 3 variants.

 

[DJB]

Unfortunately not the case for this individual.

 

[Fandlauer]

Unfortunately not the case for this individual.

In all seriousness I hope they have a full recovery. I didn't even know you could get more than one variant simultaneously. Thats awful.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

I'm not letting anyone off the hook for anything

The science has been wishy washy and changing from day one

This time the science appears right on wave 3 oncoming

I'm simply saying that the science is in blind squirrel territory to date and now that it looks like it's getting dialed in a bit better, it's being ignored

I have to agree.

Everyone has their opinion on how things can be done better. But no one knows better. The only countries that handled it well were islands and communist states. They locked it down. We can't steal liberties.

IMO, Ontario is following early data and trying to protect the people that are most likely of being in an ICU or dying. By age group.

Now that everyone is asking to open it up to a subset of the population, (by occupation, number of persons you live with, and living conditions) that is all not easily traced or easy to identify, which means it will be easy for anyone to get on the list. And that's why I think we don't have that system in place.

My thoughts: you drive a forklift in warehouse for big company X. It is a busy and high risk place of work in the warehouse. Company X has 500 employees in warehouses and offices. 300 in the warehouse and 200 in office. Does everyone at company X and their family get the shot? How does a government or private company get access to your personal data to get you on the right list? Is it the type of the house you live in? Or by the building type? Say you have a 4000 sq.ft. penthouse condo, that you own, but rent out. Can you get on the list? Sure.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

I'm in the 50-55 range, and I'll totally take AZ if it's available and if nobody higher priority wants it. I imagine there's plenty of us out there. Just let's not have it go to waste, please!

Even if only 10-20% of people who will get vaccinated want the AZ... That's still 10-20% more vaccines in to ppl. Every single one of my friends who isn't vaccinated would happily get the AZ. And would like up to get it. (Of note most of these friends are women in their 30s).

 

[Fandlauer]

An absolute shitload of AZ times available at Costco Nepean over the next couple days. FYI

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The only way to effectively deal with a pandemic is to be aggressive when locking things down.

Unfortunately most rich countries have weak populations who elect craven governments.

Australia had the right idea: shut everything down for a while and do so whenever there is an outbreak. It has worked much better than North America and Europe's "oh we can't inconvenience anybody, that wouldn't be fair" attitude.

 

[coladin]

I have no problem with people joining the "no more lockdowns" crowd and protesting or signing petitions or whatever.

As long as every single one of them will sign a contract with Ontario Public Health stating "Neither I nor any of my immediate family will be given an ICU bed under any circumstances in the next 12 weeks." (Or words to that effect.)

Implicit in the no lockdowns movement is their assumption that things they take for granted in our society -- specifically the availability of the public health system -- will continue to be true. And that is absolutely a wrong assumption (see the video posted earlier by Sens of Anarchy of the Toronto doc talking about triaging who gets an ICU bed and who does not).

Those dumb shits will only push you out of your bed if you need it. Free country, sadly

 

[coladin]

I'm an essential worker and work in a warehouse.

We have strict guidelines and have to abide by them if we want to step foot in the building. And it's been this way for nearly a year. Wearing masks while working, washing hands, sanitizing surfaces, etc.

Myself and my coworkers are living paycheck to paycheck, and yes, we are being very responsible and doing everything possible to follow all guidelines. And yes, we definitely have the choice to be responsible (as some people definitely aren't outside of work and still hanging out with friends and playing around).

The one thing I agree with is the sick days. Governments and business has to get together to make sure it is possible for every worker to take sick days without losing pay. It already exists in large warehouses and business, but the independent places are definitely a problem.

I've always wondered during this pandemic and warehouse workers if the most dangerous part of your shift is breaks and lunch? How do they organize it to keep you safe?

 

[thinkwild]

I have to agree.

Everyone has their opinion on how things can be done better. But no one knows better. The only countries that handled it well were islands and communist states. They locked it down. We can't steal liberties.

IMO, Ontario is following early data and trying to protect the people that are most likely of being in an ICU or dying. By age group.

Now that everyone is asking to open it up to a subset of the population, (by occupation, number of persons you live with, and living conditions) that is all not easily traced or easy to identify, which means it will be easy for anyone to get on the list. And that's why I think we don't have that system in place.

My thoughts: you drive a forklift in warehouse for big company X. It is a busy and high risk place of work in the warehouse. Company X has 500 employees in warehouses and offices. 300 in the warehouse and 200 in office. Does everyone at company X and their family get the shot? How does a government or private company get access to your personal data to get you on the right list? Is it the type of the house you live in? Or by the building type? Say you have a 4000 sq.ft. penthouse condo, that you own, but rent out. Can you get on the list? Sure.

The liberties argument seems somewhat strained to me sometimes. The liberties are available because we live in a society that protects them with rules like mask up.

But it was the idea of the right list that intrigued me. I guess what we'd really want is an artificial intelligence that can comb through demographic, medical, geographic, and related risk data in order to properly prioritize each citizen with an appropriate time slot that leaves everyone feeling things are fair? Until then the broad strokes we need to apply will have to do i guess.

 

[Stylizer1]

The only way to effectively deal with a pandemic is to be aggressive when locking things down.

Unfortunately most rich countries have weak populations who elect craven governments.

Australia had the right idea: shut everything down for a while and do so whenever there is an outbreak. It has worked much better than North America and Europe's "oh we can't inconvenience anybody, that wouldn't be fair" attitude.

If only the government charged people with murder for not wearing masks like you suggested a year ago.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

This is not the time to play politics, Doug

 

[Emerica]

This is not the time to play politics, Doug

Blaming the mess that is going on in Ontario on lack of vaccine supply is a cowardly move. Not surprising coming from Ford. Canada is third out of the G7 countries in terms of % of people vaccinated.