OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 5

[GCK]

Centralized test booking system. It's a nightmare right now.

Triage of tests at assessment centres by giving priority lab processing to tests that are most likely to be positive (symptomatic individuals and those from neighborhoods with high % positives). These results would get out faster and be traced faster.

The lab testing is prioritized based on a few factors, HC workers, symptoms, LTC employers. As for centralized bookings, the Montfort, QCH and CHEO are not part of the Ottawa Hospital. Each hospital operates different testing centres and uses their own Health Information systems to manage their centres, these systems are not linked nor compatible.

We make lots of assumptions that fixes are simple but in reality the whole Health Care system is a behemoth and moves at glacial speeds. Government can have great ideas and plans but it’s impossible to implement them in an agile manner.

 

[Dingle]

Can you please substantiate your claims on COVID being only "marginally" more fatal than the flu?



This is a bad sample and terrible way to measure the danger of the virus. Trump got put on oxygen a couple of times and was on dexamethasone. And all these people are getting A+ medical care because they're rich and important. Do you know what this virus is doing in poor, dense neighborhoods?

data source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 41,354,459 Cases and 1,133,467 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Canada
Date: First tracked case: February 15, total declared 8 cases
Date: June 1, 2020, Total to that date 91,705 cases

Total deaths to June 1, 2020 ; 7326

WHO asymptomatic spread: (Source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4#:~:text=For COVID-19,,infections, requiring ventilation.) Date: March 2020....suggesting a 5: 1 spread.

How many coronavirus cases are really out there? Why deaths may offer a clue
Article suggests that testing is capturing 5% or a 20:1 spread

NY state did tests in June and found ~ 14:1

Allow me to use 10:1

So by June 1, 2020 we had 91705 testes case....times 11. means 1,008,755 cases. 7326 deaths or 0.73%

June 1 to Oct 20(Yesterday). 203,688-91,705 case... Total : 111983 tested case
True case= 1,231,813 cases
Deaths: June 11 to Oct 20: 9794-7326 = 2468 deaths
% = 0.2% (PLEASE NOTE; THIS INCLUDES THE June 1-June 15 when we were still seeing deaths from the first wave..deaths were typically 1-2 weeks later.

redo but from June 15...death % drops to case: 1,149,654...deaths: 980 ...%= 0.085%

Source:
Flu (influenza): For health professionals - Canada.ca

influenza ospitalizes: 12,200 people
Kills: 3500

Source: FluWatch annual report: 2018-19 influenza season - Canada.ca

Documents stats ~

total case 48,818 ..if we use a 10:1 or 20:1 spread for that. we get 536,998 to 1,025,178 real case
Death % ~ 0.34% - 0.65%

Other literature suggest that Canada gets 20% flu infection...Okay, 37,5 million people = 7,500,00o flu case
Deaths = 3500
%= 0.047%

condition %
Flu seasonal 0.34% to 0.65%
Flu corrected for higher infection rate 0.047%
Early covid(Pre June 1) 0.73%
Present covid (post June 1) 0.2%
Present covid, less hot (post June 15) 0.085%


You tell me.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

trimming this because nobody needs to see this twice.

As someone who teaches statistics... those who don't understand stats shouldn't try to lean on them for support.

 

[Dingle]

As someone who teaches statistics... those who don't understand stats shouldn't try to lean on them for support.

MBA 1988-1992 I will send you my diploma. Stats was compulsory.

And D". I think it was Winston Churchill who may have said it..I don't care to look it up. But along the line of

Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach.

 

[Xspyrit]

A lot of people also dies from influenza, but the difference is there's a vaccine and the mortality rate is much lower

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care

Covid is a new virus who is more virulent than other wide-spread viruses, there is no other choice than be very careful and have the less possible people catching it.

If that virus was as spread as the Influenza, it would have been a freaking disaster. This is why every single public health in the world has done a lot of things to "flatten the curve"

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

MBA 1988-1992 I will send you my diploma. Stats was compulsory.

And D". I think it was Winston Churchill who may have said it..I don't care to look it up. But along the line of

Those that can, do. Those that can't, teach.

and those that can't teach manage.

 

[thinkwild]

It's probably worth remembering that there are many countries who have executed a successful public health strategy and have now won the benefits from that. New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam come to mind. If leaders can put forth a smart plan and society is overwhelmingly willing to put the common good as a priority for that task, you can avoid massive economic pain without blanket lockdowns. Lockdowns arent a tyrannical act. They are a reflection of a failed societal effort, of too many individuals failing to do the right thing, and should serve as a reminder that there are less painful ways we can work together to get through this than lockdowns if we do act within public health guidelines.

.

 

[DrEasy]

It's probably worth remembering that there are many countries who have executed a successful public health strategy and have now won the benefits from that. New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam come to mind. If leaders can put forth a smart plan and society is overwhelmingly willing to put the common good as a priority for that task, you can avoid massive economic pain without blanket lockdowns. Lockdowns arent a tyrannical act. They are a reflection of a failed societal effort, of too many individuals failing to do the right thing, and should serve as a reminder that there are less painful ways we can work together to get through this than lockdowns if we do act within public health guidelines.

.

I'm especially impressed by Vietnam, because in the other two cases it might be easier to manage things when you're on an island.

 

[Stylizer1]

and those that can't teach manage.

And those who can't manage work for the Sens.

 

[SENATOR]

Most of the healthy people are asymptomatic to COVID-19. Older generations will get that shortness of breath, a soar throat and a cough. The most troubling is that the virus affects nervous system, penetrates brain. In healthy people it could be just a loss of taste and smell, when nerves and receptors are affected. And that part of the brain is inflamed by virus(it is a really walking dead stuff, no kidding). Oder people will get even muscles twitching, heart problems and spasms and crazy tearing headaches, when virus really inflames nerves in the brain. This could stay for weeks and weeks at a time. Most people just stay home and cope with the disease themselves, when little shortness of breath is present plus the rest of the symptoms. They for sure have an upper lung inflamed pneumonia. But they scared to go and present themselves to the hospital. Thyroid gland is usually get inflamed, as stomach lining and inflamed pancreas as well. Kidneys, liver....you name it. Complications all over. Virus just goes into your body as the weapon of mass distraction and inflames and affects the weakest organs. I am sure this virus is a lab designed weapon. To live through the course of this disease is mostly insane.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Dingle]

It's probably worth remembering that there are many countries who have executed a successful public health strategy and have now won the benefits from that. New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam come to mind. If leaders can put forth a smart plan and society is overwhelmingly willing to put the common good as a priority for that task, you can avoid massive economic pain without blanket lockdowns. Lockdowns arent a tyrannical act. They are a reflection of a failed societal effort, of too many individuals failing to do the right thing, and should serve as a reminder that there are less painful ways we can work together to get through this than lockdowns if we do act within public health guidelines.

.

Thinkwild,

Commercial real estate in Ottawa is between $50 and $100 a square foot for rental. Business taxes on relatively small shops may be $5000 k per month. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg on economic collapse. The private sector will collapse soon. Then what? Have you any idea of what a 20-30% vacancy rate is? or a 10-20 default on payments to creditors will mean?

We have no perspective here, because about 1/3 of all workers draw a government check (from one of the 3 levels). So, they are okay for now and some will benefit. Many work from home, where it is easier and cheaper. No commute, no parking, no nagging boss. Heck in some ways this covid thing is the best thing that could have happened to them. I wish every single person who is being a fear mongeror or alarmest would; State their age, and occupation. Old Professor Dizingle up there is probably working from home, Pay check and pension untouched. No students to nag, no shit. He must be in heaven!!

In 3-4 months, we will start seeing the economic collapse..Then those same 1/3 will start feeling a pinch when wages are frozen, cuts are announced, pensions are locked, spouses are without work, etc.

We need a better solution than simply burn our economy to the ground. Particularly when you consider the far lower death rates (February predictions, 3% of all infected..you saw my numbers...Since June 15, 0.085%).
Take the sports example. Work around covid..do not cancel it. The NFL simply moves games. Some cities are allowing some fans. NO PANIC, NO FEAR MONGERING.

The elderly, the vulnerable get it. They have hidden. The rest of us are supporting them and either keep our distance, or help them as best as we can. Take a look at Sweden..No change to their life.. they do not fear monger.

The facts are there, if some people choose to ignore them, fine. It does not change them, and it should not sway the rest of us. 0.085% death rate since June 1....Flu rates.

Your RED Blacks, 67's, Sens, etc. are in serious jeopardy..Heck I am guessing this site is in jeopardy. Who will pay taxes to support that 1/3 and who will pay taxes to support society as a whole?

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

One of the thousands of businesses I would assume affected by the shutdowns

'We did nothing wrong,' says tearful single dad whose business was shut down | Toronto Sun

 

[Dingle]

and those that can't teach manage.

Sens..I am guessing you are a retiree?

If there is economic collapse, who pays your pension? Government or private pension plan? It's not like there is a bucket of cash out there set aside just for that?

Economic collapse is a real possibility. then where does your money come from?

Similarly for all those who draw a paycheck from the government (any level)!!!!

People have to understand, fear mongering, panic over-reaction is only going to lead to: real fear over money. Tell me what happens when month one goes by and no pension check. Now tell me whether you believe a 30 year old should act like an ass and spend money in a bar and pay all that lovely tax!!! Heck, you will want the government to force him out to bars!!!!

It is reckless 20 and 30 somethings who spend their money like drunken sailors that keep our economy afloat. Without them, Sue would have died of cancer and her other medical conditions a while back.

At some point, we must look past fear and get on with life, or we will be burnt. God, I hope we can all connect on this site in 6 months time, it is going to be incredible to see how attitudes will change.

 

[Masked]

One of the thousands of businesses I would assume affected by the shutdowns

'We did nothing wrong,' says tearful single dad whose business was shut down | Toronto Sun

I guess he didn't hear about the fitness place in Hamilton that had an outbreak is responsible for 80 people being infected. I wonder if that guy in Hamilton, who was posting on here about lockdowns not being needed because the restaurant he works at is full, was one of those 80. Or maybe he works at that Hamilton restaurant where there's been an outbreak with the staff.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I guess he didn't hear about the fitness place in Hamilton that had an outbreak is responsible for 80 people being infected. I wonder if that guy in Hamilton, who was posting on here about lockdowns not being needed because the restaurant he works at is full, was one of those 80. Or maybe he works at that Hamilton restaurant where there's been an outbreak with the staff.

One location equates to every single business of the same category to be shutdown?

Let's punish others for following the rules laid out by the government

 

[Dingle]

I guess he didn't hear about the fitness place in Hamilton that had an outbreak is responsible for 80 people being infected. I wonder if that guy in Hamilton, who was posting on here about lockdowns not being needed because the restaurant he works at is full, was one of those 80. Or maybe he works at that Hamilton restaurant where there's been an outbreak with the staff.

Tranqilo..are you willing to state your age and occupation?

 

[foggyvisor]

Sens..I am guessing you are a retiree?

If there is economic collapse, who pays your pension? Government or private pension plan? It's not like there is a bucket of cash out there set aside just for that?

Economic collapse is a real possibility. then where does your money come from?

Similarly for all those who draw a paycheck from the government (any level)!!!!

People have to understand, fear mongering, panic over-reaction is only going to lead to: real fear over money. Tell me what happens when month one goes by and no pension check. Now tell me whether you believe a 30 year old should act like an ass and spend money in a bar and pay all that lovely tax!!! Heck, you will want the government to force him out to bars!!!!

It is reckless 20 and 30 somethings who spend their money like drunken sailors that keep our economy afloat. Without them, Sue would have died of cancer and her other medical conditions a while back.

At some point, we must look past fear and get on with life, or we will be burnt. God, I hope we can all connect on this site in 6 months time, it is going to be incredible to see how attitudes will change.

Sorry, what alternative reality are you selling?

One where a new disease rips through society uncontrolled and overloads hospitals while everyone goes on their merry way, keeping the economy humming?

 

[Sens]

I guess he didn't hear about the fitness place in Hamilton that had an outbreak is responsible for 80 people being infected. I wonder if that guy in Hamilton, who was posting on here about lockdowns not being needed because the restaurant he works at is full, was one of those 80. Or maybe he works at that Hamilton restaurant where there's been an outbreak with the staff.

my place of employment was booming on Saturday in Halton... easily the busiest day of the year since I was back

Tomorrow it’s going to be 23... I’m expecting another monster day

 

[Sens]

Sorry, what alternative reality are you selling?

One where a new disease rips through society uncontrolled and overloads hospitals while everyone goes on their merry way, keeping the economy humming?

If you are under 70.., you have a 99.9% of recovery

 

[Micklebot]

If you are under 70.., you have a 99.9% of recovery

Is that your restaurant's slogan?

.1% mortality is a big deal when something is highly contageous, and the rate dor those in the 40 to 70 bracket is roughly 5 times that.

All this say nothing about how many people require hospitalization, or have long lasting or permanent effects as a result of their infection. Or for that matter the people over 70.

You probably wouldn't go to a sens game if you knew 15 to 20 people in attendance (at capacity) each night wouldn't ever make it home, but that's what a .1% mortality rate looks like.

 

[Sens]

Is that your restaurant's slogan?

.1% mortality is a big deal when something is highly contageous, and the rate dor those in the 40 to 70 bracket is roughly 5 times that.

All this say nothing about how many people require hospitalization, or have long lasting or permanent effects as a result of their infection. Or for that matter the people over 70.

You probably wouldn't go to a sens game if you knew 15 to 20 people in attendance (at capacity) each night wouldn't ever make it home, but that's what a .1% mortality rate looks like.

the Canadian government has estimated to spend 330B dollars containing Covid... If the flu is 27 deadly as Covid, why weren't we spending $89B to save people from the flu last year? If you say "Covid deaths would be worse if we hadn't locked down" and I say fine, is the flu 10% as deadly? Why didn't we spend $35B last year to protect those 3,000 poor souls?

Its ridiculous

 

[Sens]

Restaurant I work at main demographic is 40-60 year olds
As soon as people are seated the mask comes off

I’ve gone out to dine with the wife.., I see it everywhere...
People are done with this all over

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Restaurant I work at main demographic is 40-60 year olds
As soon as people are seated the mask comes off

I’ve gone out to dine with the wife.., I see it everywhere...
People are done with this all over

What’s your point about the mask? You don’t wear one when seated

 

[Micklebot]

the Canadian government has estimated to spend 330B dollars containing Covid... If the flu is 27 deadly as Covid, why weren't we spending $89B to save people from the flu last year? If you say "Covid deaths would be worse if we hadn't locked down" and I say fine, is the flu 10% as deadly? Why didn't we spend $35B last year to protect those 3,000 poor souls?

Its ridiculous

Yes, it is ridiculous to compare the flu, for which we have a cost effective means of protecting the population in vaccines, to covid 19 for which we have none. Canada would be thrilled to pay for the roughly 60% of the population that refuses to get the flu shot every year and help protect those poor souls, unfortunately there are some that don't think it's important enough for them to get that shot because they don't feel they personally are at risk.