Value of: Erik Karlsson - UFA. Will it happen? Where does he end up?

[Taylorst]

1. Weber's caphit is like 7.5M

2. When the Cap max will be above 80M, it's not hard fitting in 11-12M for an elite player

Just because it rises above,80 million doesn't mean anything. Players salaries rise also.

Most teams are near the cap now at least the teams who are contending.


Toronto has to resign Matthews marner, and others they can barely afford that . Tampa is at the ceiling

San Jose isn't near a contender. Calgary and Las Vegas and Colorado are the teams to watch

Be honest at least when trying to justify why he gets that salary.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Yes 8 million is the starting point. No team would be that naive to sign a 29 year old defenseman and think they can field a competitive hockey team.

GMs are getting smarter to the fact you can mortgage your teams future on 1 player who eats up a huge portion of your salary cap and expect to resign players in the future . Players salaries rise and so does the cap but not to the extent you'd like


It's called parity. No team can buy a championship and not feel the pain from their willingness to overpay for a chance.

He won't get it unless he decides to play for a team not going anywhere.

 

[boredmale]

Be honest at least when trying to justify why he gets that salary.

Top 10 defensemen don't grow on trees and this is a teams chance to get one free. I think Tavares contract is more then a fair comparison what he can get.

Sure he might be able to increase the amount of teams interested if he lowers the price slightly but he should be able to find a good team asking for the full amount(or even better go down South to a tax haven and reduce the caphit that way)

 

[Taylorst]

Whatever happens i hope he gets 13 mil per year
EK has the leverage, he can say: give me 13 mil a year or i'll test UFA market.
If he's smart he'll want a opt out clause in year 4 of his contract just in case, also he can use the opt out to get even more money as he'll likely still be elite at 31 & then sign another contract with the same team.

Defenseman age differently in hockey as far as performance compared to forwards.

31 for a defenseman is on the downside of their careers.

Examples Kane is 30 years old and on pace to record 126 points this season

Hossa was 30 or 31 when he came to the hawks and played solid for 7 more years

Jagr although he has diminished from what he once was he was still effective in his 30`s

 

[boredmale]

Defenseman age differently in hockey as far as performance compared to forwards.

I would actually argue on a whole Defensemen generally peak later(mid 20s) and generally are more likely to play well into their 30s

 

[Taylorst]

Top 10 defensemen don't grow on trees and this is a teams chance to get one free. I think Tavares contract is more then a fair comparison what he can get.

Sure he might be able to increase the amount of teams interested if he lowers the price slightly but he should be able to find a good team asking for the full amount(or even better go down South to a tax haven and reduce the caphit that way)

Teams can't buy championships, Tampa can not afford to sign him. They are at the ceiling and come next year with a 2.5 million increase and players to resign and certain spots to fill he won't be in Tampa.

Besides Tampa has a really solid defense and good prospects so their is no need to overpay a guy . If it was 1 player needed and they had cap space thats a different story but karlsson is not the missing piece.

Likewise Toronto can't spend in the off season 20 to 30 million on 2 players .

 

[boredmale]

Teams can't buy championships, Tampa can not afford to sign him. They are at the ceiling and come next year with a 2.5 million increase and players to resign and certain spots to fill he won't be in Tampa.

Tampa has the florida Tax shelter advantage(ie they can sign him to 1-2M less and he still will make the same amount as if he played in a higher taxed place).

Stralman, Girardi and Coburn are all UFAs this summer(11.2M) and if the Lightning need any extra caproom they can always dump Callahan(5.8M) or Palat(5.3) or JT Miller(5.25)

 

[Taylorst]

I would actually argue on a whole Defensemen generally peak later(mid 20s) and generally are more likely to play well into their 30s

I'd agree mid 20`s but by 31 their on the decline. Especially if they have played a lot of games and long playoff runs takes a toll on them. Then add in Olympics

Look and Keith, Seabrook , dourghty lots of cups and playoffs .

Karlsson as skilled ad he is would have to be the 1 final piece a team is willing to commit to for all those dollars and has a solid pipeline of talent to off Set future resignings with entry level players to fill certain roles,

Karlsson would be perfect for a young defensive group needing a seasoned player

 

[Taylorst]

Tampa has the florida Tax shelter advantage(ie they can sign him to 1-2M less and he still will make the same amount as if he played in a higher taxed place).

Stralman, Girardi and Coburn are all UFAs this summer(11.2M) and if the Lightning need any extra caproom they can always dump Callahan(5.8M) or Palat(5.3) or JT Miller(5.25)

If you stop and think Tampa has a great team not because of 1 player but because of a strong pipeline and depth.


Karlsson would blow a hole through their cap and deplete the teams depth that has so far helped them lead the league and quite possibly make them win a cup.

They don't need karlsson. Or that cap hit.

 

[boredmale]

Look and Keith, Seabrook , dourghty lots of cups and playoffs .

I look at Doughty's caphit and see a range Karlsson can expect as for Keith he was still at the top of his game up till 33(so if somebody signs Karlsson that is a good 5 years if we are basing it on Keith's trajectory).

 

[supsens]

Yes 8 million is the starting point. No team would be that naive to sign a 29 year old defenseman and think they can field a competitive hockey team.

GMs are getting smarter to the fact you can mortgage your teams future on 1 player who eats up a huge portion of your salary cap and expect to resign players in the future . Players salaries rise and so does the cap but not to the extent you'd like


It's called parity. No team can buy a championship and not feel the pain from their willingness to overpay for a chance.

He won't get it unless he decides to play for a team not going anywhere.

Have you seen the guys that get 7 these days? 8 isn't even going to be attempted

 

[Taylorst]

Have you seen the guys that get 7 these days? 8 isn't even going to be attempted

That doesn't matter. What matters is his age huge factor, also what has he done no cups , what does his signing do for the team short term and long term.

It's easier to take a top defenseman who is 23 to 26 and offer more term and more money. Than to offer a 29 year old guy with lots of term and a high salary. His decline would hamper a teams ability to move him as well as his salary would surely hurt a teams future signings .

7 year contract puts him at 35 or 36 years old now add 13 million dollar salary to that. What if he gets hurts or declines in a year or 2 ?

Look at toews he got that huge contract right after their 3rd cup and he was 27 years old he went 3 years declining now his 4th year in a 8 year contract he is producing,

That's the risk with these high salaries.


At least in toews defense he earned it with 3 cups.

Karlsson hasn't earned that kind of money at his age to throw away .

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Cant see why he would leave the Sharks

Underdog is NJD

We certainly have the money for it.

I’d bet he stays in SJ, though. They usually retain the big names they acquire.

 

[Taylorst]

I look at Doughty's caphit and see a range Karlsson can expect as for Keith he was still at the top of his game up till 33(so if somebody signs Karlsson that is a good 5 years if we are basing it on Keith's trajectory).

Keith also took a hometown discount with a full no movement clause. In order to help this team with the cap and continue to try and win.

And Keith's still a top defenseman his conditioning is insane . Not sure karlsson has that type of conditioning like Keith to prolong his career.



Karlsson IMO if he wants to win will have to except a discount in order to achieve winning a cup or more and realize a discount allows the team to stay relevant.

 

[CanadienShark]

Just because it rises above,80 million doesn't mean anything. Players salaries rise also.

Most teams are near the cap now at least the teams who are contending.


Toronto has to resign Matthews marner, and others they can barely afford that . Tampa is at the ceiling

San Jose isn't near a contender. Calgary and Las Vegas and Colorado are the teams to watch

Be honest at least when trying to justify why he gets that salary.

What? Absolutely San Jose is a contender.

 

[Taylorst]

What? Absolutely San Jose is a contender.

It's great your rooting for your team as anyone would root for their home team. But let's be clear eyed here.

San Jose is not a contender.
They are a playoff team.
These are the list of teams who are serious contenders
Winnipeg
Nashville
Calagary dark horse
Colorado dark horse
Tampa Favortite to win Cup
Toronto
Las Vegas

 

[CanadienShark]

It's great your rooting for your team as anyone would root for their home team. But let's be clear eyed here.

San Jose is not a contender.
They are a playoff team.
These are the list of teams who are serious contenders
Winnipeg
Nashville
Calagary dark horse
Colorado dark horse
Tampa Favortite to win Cup
Toronto
Las Vegas

How can you possibly try to argue these (seemingly random) choices? San Jose is higher in the standings than most of your list. 4th in the league, and the team is firing on all cylinders.

 

[Willy Stylez]

It's great your rooting for your team as anyone would root for their home team. But let's be clear eyed here.

San Jose is not a contender.
They are a playoff team.
These are the list of teams who are serious contenders
Winnipeg
Nashville
Calagary dark horse
Colorado dark horse
Tampa Favortite to win Cup
Toronto
Las Vegas

Weird, with those teams as contenders sure SJ is in that group too.

 

[SR]

Erik Karlsson is a (much?) better player than Tavares and Stamkos.

Yeah, im not really sure that’s true.

 

[Rschmitz]

If the Bolts trade Callahan and Miller they will have over $20 million in cap space. Something to keep in mind

 

[Heckler81]

If the Bolts trade Callahan and Miller they will have over $20 million in cap space. Something to keep in mind

No one is taking Cally’s contract unless you tie assets to his name.

 

[A91]

We certainly have the money for it.

I’d bet he stays in SJ, though. They usually retain the big names they acquire.

Agreed

 

[A91]

If the Bolts trade Callahan and Miller they will have over $20 million in cap space. Something to keep in mind

Point of going to take up 8-9 on his own though.

 

[ricky0034]

It's great your rooting for your team as anyone would root for their home team. But let's be clear eyed here.

San Jose is not a contender.
They are a playoff team.
These are the list of teams who are serious contenders
Winnipeg
Nashville
Calagary dark horse
Colorado dark horse
Tampa Favortite to win Cup
Toronto
Las Vegas

in what universe is f***ing Colorado a better team than the Sharks?

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

If the Bolts trade Callahan and Miller they will have over $20 million in cap space. Something to keep in mind

Unless you tie a 1st rounder for Callahan, He's absolutely going nowhere.