Value of: Erik Karlsson - UFA. Will it happen? Where does he end up?

[Crazy Joe Divola]

He deserves to be back in Ottawa. I can't even see San Jose fans being upset if that happens.

I won’t be upset at him regarldess of what he does. He doesn’t owe anyone anything.

I expect and hope he’ll stay in SJ as they won’t hesitate to pay him his worth for 8 years and they’re a competitive team with a fantastic locker room, management and ownership and the Bay Area and surrounding areas are great too.

 

[Mattb124]

It's like folks don' t think (or more correctly, don't remember) that Doug Wilson (not to mention Hasso) talked with him in advance of the trade to determine his willingness to re-sign with the Sharks.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He might just become a Hab. They have the capspace for him.

 

[wetcoast]

If you had to put your life savings on one team to sign him, the smart bet would be San Jose for the following reasons:

1. Only San Jose can offer an 8th year (helps lessen the impact of state tax)
2. Hasso and Wilson have shown a willingness to pay $13m for Tavares. Most would probably agree that Karlsson is the more impactful player so I see no reason we wouldn't offer whatever $$ Karlsson wants up to and beyond $13m. My impression is the pocket book is open and we will match or exceed whatever anyone else would offer and we would do it for 8 years
3. Doug Wilson and Hasso met with Karlsson and his agent prior to the trade and Wilson is on record saying they made the trade because they felt comfortable that they could offer what Karlsson is looking for (term/$$/location/ect). Wilson is not the type of GM who would just take a swing and mortgage the future the way he did if he didnt feel confident we could re-sign him. My guess is rough numbers were discussed and Hasso gave the thumbs up.
4. We have a track record of resigning our big acquisitions (Burns/Kane being the two recent examples) and players, by all accounts, love playing for the ownership group and love the area.
5. Wilson has a proven track record of keeping the team competitive and retooling despite how high we usually draft. His ability to sign solid depth out of Europe, draft smart, and make massive trades (Boyle, Burns, Heatly, Karlsson, Kane, ect) should be enough proof to show a player like Karlsson we can compete. I assume this is where most will disagree but I think this boards opinion of how far into the future players look for a team to be competitive is overblown and it's very understated how quickly ANY team can be a bottom feeder. I would personally bet on a GM/Team with a proven (and long) track record of success. Karlsson makes such a big impact that just getting into the playoffs with him on a roster gives you a chance to win it all
6. By all recent accounts, he loves the area and the team and is enjoying his time here.
7. The team has been fairly vocal/positive about the prospects of resigning him and they plan to start working on a deal after the All-star game. If you follow the team for as long as most Sharks fans have, you'd know that Wilson is usually fairly reserved/quiet about contract talks. His openness, in my opinion, shows he feels very good about resigning him.

I think that covers just about every talking point that will be brought up in what I'm sure will be a wonderful, calm, and respectful thread. With that said, if he doesn't resign I think it's because he and/or his wife would like to be closer to Ottawa. That's honestly the only reason I can think of aside from something absolutely crazy happening between this post and the end of the season.

Great post and agree with alot of it but the Sharks aren't going to spend 13 million of their 22 million in space next year on EK.

Pavelski is up as well as Meier, Donskoi, Labanc and Thornton.

Thornton's five million might go away if he retires or takes a pay hit for one more year.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Great post and agree with alot of it but the sahrks aren't going to spend 13 million of their 22 million in space next year on EK.

Palvaski is up as well as Meier, Donaski, Labanc and Thorton.

Thorton's five million might go away if he retires or takes a pay hit for one more year.

Well, Thorton, Donaski, and Pavalski aren't people, so that'll help.

Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier are essential. The others aren't. I'd love to keep them all, but Karlsson at 13 million is definitely the best option there.

 

[wetcoast]

He deserves to be back in Ottawa. I can't even see San Jose fans being upset if that happens.

I don't ever see him going back there next year, mainly due to the bizarre circumstances of Hoffans' girlfriend combined with the loss of their pregnancy.

Hockey Star's Stillborn Tragedy Is A Heartbreaking Reminder Of Pregnancy Risks

Most people would just need the change and distance from something like that.

 

[wetcoast]

Well, Thorton, Donaski, and Pavalski aren't people, so that'll help.

Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier are essential. The others aren't. I'd love to keep them all, but Karlsson at 13 million is definitely the best option there.

Burns is at 8 million for his cap hit, the team structure would get really out of wack if Erik's becomes 13.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Burns is at 8 million for his cap hit, the team structure would get really out of wack if Erik's becomes 13.

It doesn't matter. You don't let Erik Karlsson go. His 13 million will be a better use than paying Pavelski, Donskoi, and Thornton what they may think they're worth. If Pavs and/or Thornton take discounts, great. If not, then they'll have to let one or two off that list go.

 

[wetcoast]

It doesn't matter. You don't let Erik Karlsson go. His 13 million will be a better use than paying Pavelski, Donskoi, and Thornton what they may think they're worth. If Pavs and/or Thornton take discounts, great. If not, then they'll have to let one or two off that list go.

The difference between 8 and 13 is 10.5 and that's around the area dollar amount I expect him to sign for X 8.

 

[Mafoofoo]

He deserves to be back in Ottawa. I can't even see San Jose fans being upset if that happens.

I would be upset.

 

[WSS11]

All this time responding could've been spent by you either proving your so-far baseless claim correct or acting like an adult and say you were wrong.

You think he’s an adult? Lol

 

[Taylorst]

He will IMO hit free agency. If he wanted to stay in San Jose he would have either resigned with them or negotiations would be underway in a serious manner.

Whatever team he chooses to sign with they will have to demonstrate a few things 1 they have a winning culture, are able to compete for the foreseeable future, and are a Stanley cup contender .

Money will be secondary to those points I laid out.

Why sign with a team that IMO isn't going anywhere or isn't showing signs of contending .

San Jose IMO is not a team near contending.

Winnipeg,
Las Vegas
Tampa Nashville
Calgary Colorado


My bet is Calgary and colorado.

 

[boredmale]

Not that I see the Islanders signing him but I can see them make a solid offer. I guess he either resigns with San Jose or signs with Tampa though

 

[Cancuks]

Don't see him signing. No team can afford to tie up 1/3 of their payroll on three defensemen and expect to contend.

 

[SensFactor]

He's going to tb

 

[Taylorst]

He's going to tb

I hate to burst your bubble, but their is the underlying problem certain teams have cap room Tampa and Toronto can not afford karlsson Period . They can barely afford their players on their rosters now and next year with all their signings.

Colorado , Calgary and Las Vegas IMO are the only teams right now in place with solid pieces to contend for the foreseeable future.

San Jose isn't even close .

 

[Taylorst]

Don't see him signing. No team can afford to tie up 1/3 of their payroll on three defensemen and expect to contend.

Bingo. The salary cap was and is meant to produce parity and not allow 1 team to buy championships.

Chicago was the blue print on how to dominate for 8 years than due to winning 3 cups fall from grace.

Toronto and Winnipeg along with Tampa are on the same path. However they will have to chose come next year who they consider a core player and who is expendable.

Their off season moves will be mostly focused on their resignings and making some minor tweaks.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Whatever happens i hope he gets 13 mil per year
EK has the leverage, he can say: give me 13 mil a year or i'll test UFA market.
If he's smart he'll want a opt out clause in year 4 of his contract just in case, also he can use the opt out to get even more money as he'll likely still be elite at 31 & then sign another contract with the same team.

 

[Taylorst]

Whatever happens i hope he gets 13 mil per year
EK has the leverage, he can say: give me 13 mil a year or i'll test UFA market.
If he's smart he'll want a opt out clause in year 4 of his contract just in case, also he can use the opt out to get even more money as he'll likely still be elite at 31 & then sign another contract with the same team.

I highly doubt he is worth or gets 13 million. He would have to go to a bottom feeder team that isn't going anywhere and he is just for ticket sales .


I'm sure If that was the case he'd be fine with staying In Ottowa.


He wants to win and any team that is a contender or close won't pay him that kind of money . It would blow a hole through their salary cap and future signings.

8 to 9.5 million tops is what he ends up with. Take into account his age as well if he was 25 or 26 he could possible get the long term high salary commitment. He ism28 or 29 . At best he has 4 to 5 years of solid play left that's a huge factor to consider for a team to think about.

 

[boredmale]

8 to 9.5 million tops is what he ends up with. Take into account his age as well if he was 25 or 26 he could possible get the long term high salary commitment. He ism28 or 29 . At best he has 4 to 5 years of solid play left that's a huge factor to consider for a team to think about.

If Tavares gets 11.5M Karlsson gets at least that unless he is willing to eat a bit of contract to go to certain teams

 

[CREW99AW]

Not that I see the Islanders signing him but I can see them make a solid offer. I guess he either resigns with San Jose or signs with Tampa though

I agree.
Lou tried last summer,days before July 1st. There was a lot of uncertainty over Tavares returning and the arena.

Isles are in the thick of the playoff race without Tavares and are scheduled to break ground in May 2019, on the new arena. Lou might swing and miss again ,but I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back with a ufa offer.

 

[supsens]

I highly doubt he is worth or gets 13 million. He would have to go to a bottom feeder team that isn't going anywhere and he is just for ticket sales .


I'm sure If that was the case he'd be fine with staying In Ottowa.


He wants to win and any team that is a contender or close won't pay him that kind of money . It would blow a hole through their salary cap and future signings.

8 to 9.5 million tops is what he ends up with. Take into account his age as well if he was 25 or 26 he could possible get the long term high salary commitment. He ism28 or 29 . At best he has 4 to 5 years of solid play left that's a huge factor to consider for a team to think about.

You think the biggest UFA dreamboat over the last 20 years is going to land 8 million? Nope
It starts at 11

 

[Taylorst]

If Tavares gets 11.5M Karlsson gets at least that unless he is willing to eat a bit of contract to go to certain teams

Your conflating Apple's to oranges. 2 totally different players and positions.

Shea Weber is at 12 million but look back to his age and when he inked that contract and the ramifications signing a defenseman to that type of deal.


No team that is a contender or a few pieces away can realistically go forward and sign a 29 year old defenseman to a salary like that and stay competitive or put a team on the ice.

 

[boredmale]

Your conflating Apple's to oranges. 2 totally different players and positions.

Shea Weber is at 12 million but look back to his age and when he inked that contract and the ramifications signing a defenseman to that type of deal.


No team that is a contender or a few pieces away can realistically go forward and sign a 29 year old defenseman to a salary like that and stay competitive or put a team on the ice.

1. Weber's caphit is like 7.5M

2. When the Cap max will be above 80M, it's not hard fitting in 11-12M for an elite player

 

[Taylorst]

You think the biggest UFA dreamboat over the last 20 years is going to land 8 million? Nope
It starts at 11

Yes 8 million is the starting point. No team would be that naive to sign a 29 year old defenseman and think they can field a competitive hockey team.

GMs are getting smarter to the fact you can mortgage your teams future on 1 player who eats up a huge portion of your salary cap and expect to resign players in the future . Players salaries rise and so does the cap but not to the extent you'd like


It's called parity. No team can buy a championship and not feel the pain from their willingness to overpay for a chance.

He won't get it unless he decides to play for a team not going anywhere.