Speculation: Erik Karlsson on the move at the deadline?

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Karlsson is owed less money than his cap hit for the last 2 years of his deal, so if anything it makes more sense doe the Penguins to keep him based on money. They have to hit the cap floor somehow and paying Karlsson a $10 million AAV but only $7.5 million salary is a net benefit for that.

There’s no purpose for the Penguins to trade Karlsson just to trade him. If they can’t get any value by trading him now, they’d just keep him and try trading him again when he’s a rental.

He is also owed 11M in signing bonuses over those two remaining seasons. Those are buyout proof.

There is no guarantee that there will be a market for him as a rental. You're talking about trying to move a near 37 year old player who already had significant injury issues throughout his career. Not to mention how his cap hit would complicate the rental market for him since you can't do the traditional double-retention (you can bring it down to prorated 5M max). While the Penguins aren't a Coyotes or Melnyk-Sens type budget team, most owners are cash conscience to the extent that they don't like to burn money. Imagine trying to convince Penguins ownership that you're going to pay the better part of 16.5M over the next two seasons (11M of that in lump sum signing bonuses) to maybe get a 3rd round pick. That's just not reality.

The reality is that a rebuilding team would see the value in dumping money off the books for a player who they won't accrue any value from if they don't expect to win a lot of hockey games. Paying Karlsson 5M on July 1st 2025, and then another 6M on July 1st 2026 is asinine.

What will happen is that they will retain a portion of his salary, and they will take back bad contracts that either have less real dollars owing, or aren't buyout proof. They might get a few minor picks or prospects back, but the main value will be passing on 50-75 percent of the buyout proof contract to a different org'. Using the previous example of Anderson for Karlsson, buyout out Josh Anderson costs them 6M. If they dump Karlsson at 25 percent retained, they save 12.375M. So that's 6M in savings, along with lowering the big lump sum signing bonuses owed by 75 percent, and acquiring whatever B or C assets that Montreal would kick in, which would likely be similar or better to what they'd get anyways by keeping him and trading him at 37.

They will basically trade him by proxy for cash. I can guarantee you this. The return will be minimal. A 2nd round pick would be a homerun. There might be conditional elements that make it look better, but they would just be to save face and would be unlikely to be met.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Trust me, no Sens fan wants to see him on Montreal or Toronto. Pittsburgh was bad enough.

I just think that he might waive to go there because of the proximity to Ottawa, and Montreal has bad contracts to make it work.

...I get your point, however it makes no sense from the Habs perspective to do it...

 

[Sasha Orlov]

This is absurd.

He asked for a trade out of San Jose because they weren't winning.

Pittsburgh isn't winning and that's not changing anytime soon.

He wants to win.

Do you even follow this sport?

No winning team would want him so good luck with that

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

the islanders should grab him.

Other post mentioning Barzal maybe not thrilled with crowd sizes and then other post mentioning that Dobson is injured.

Ek is spectacle and helps fill seats, absolutely doesn’t fit the islanders stereotype which maybe would be good for them for a few seasons.

I don't see why he would go through the hassle of going to the Islanders. Which isn't meant as a shot at them specifically. But he needs a compelling reason to waive. He has a NMC.

None of us know what he would actually do, but I think it's fair to speculate that there is no point in him waiving unless it's one of the meme contenders everybody wants to play for. I'd make an exception for Ottawa or Montreal because his wife's family is from Ottawa, and even after being traded he still lives here as it's his adopted hometown. (Add in Alfredsson, his hockey father figure as the assistant coach.)

 

[um]

So basically dubas’s second year is to undo all his 1st year moves. Sounds like a gm in over his head, it’s too bad the ownership didn’t have a 5 year sample size of dubas screwing up a hockey team oh wait!

But Hextall and Sullivan and blah blah blah.

Yea, Dubas sucks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He is also owed 11M in signing bonuses over those two remaining seasons. Those are buyout proof.

What? Why are we talking about buyouts all of a sudden? Karlsson isn't even close to being in a discussion about a buyout. He has 2 years left, which he absolutely wouldn't be bought out this year and would need a significant decline in his game next season to be bought out next off-season.

What a bizarre argument to bring up.

There is no guarantee that there will be a market for him as a rental. You're talking about trying to move a near 37 year old player who already had significant injury issues throughout his career. Not to mention how his cap hit would complicate the rental market for him since you can't do the traditional double-retention (you can bring it down to prorated 5M max). While the Penguins aren't a Coyotes or Melnyk-Sens type budget team, most owners are cash conscience to the extent that they don't like to burn money. Imagine trying to convince Penguins ownership that you're going to pay the better part of 16.5M over the next two seasons (11M of that in lump sum signing bonuses) to maybe get a 3rd round pick. That's just not reality.

Saying Karlsson "maybe" will bring back a 3rd as a rental is downright asinine. If he continues to perform at his current level for the remainder of his deal, he's absolutely bringing back a 1st as a rental. The only reason there's even a question about him bringing back a 1st right now is the term left on his deal. As a rental at $5 million, teams would absolutely pay a nice price for that.

A 3rd round pick at the deadline gets you Shayne Gostisbehere at $5 million, not Erik Karlsson at $5 million.

The reality is that a rebuilding team would see the value in dumping money off the books for a player who they won't accrue any value from if they don't expect to win a lot of hockey games. Paying Karlsson 5M on July 1st 2025, and then another 6M on July 1st 2026 is asinine.

The signing bonuses are irrelevant when his yearly salary is so low. He's getting a $6 million signing bonus on July 1st 2026 because his salary in the 2026-2027 season is $1.5 million.

Karlsson is paid less than his AAV, that's a fact. Whether it's in the form of signing bonuses or salary means nothing for that.

What will happen is that they will retain a portion of his salary, and they will take back bad contracts that either have less real dollars owing, or aren't buyout proof. They might get a few minor picks or prospects back, but the main value will be passing on 50-75 percent of the buyout proof contract to a different org'. Using the previous example of Anderson for Karlsson, buyout out Josh Anderson costs them 6M. If they dump Karlsson at 25 percent retained, they save 12.375M. So that's 6M in savings, along with lowering the big lump sum signing bonuses owed by 75 percent, and acquiring whatever B or C assets that Montreal would kick in, which would likely be similar or better to what they'd get anyways by keeping him and trading him at 37.

They will basically trade him by proxy for cash. I can guarantee you this. The return will be minimal. A 2nd round pick would be a homerun. There might be conditional elements that make it look better, but they would just be to save face and would be unlikely to be met.

Again, mentioning the "buyout proof" contract for Erik Karlsson as he's still one of the top scoring OFD in the league is dumb. He's not even close to being considered for a buyout and he only has 2 years left.

Trading Karlsson for money does literally nothing for the Penguins. They're owned by FSG, who are worth $14 billion, and have a ton of expiring contracts in the next few years. If the best they can do is the crappy return you're suggesting, they'd just keep him and use his AAV to hit the cap floor. There is no benefit for trading him for another contract to buy out, some shitty assets and saving a bit of money.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

What? Why are we talking about buyouts all of a sudden? Karlsson isn't even close to being in a discussion about a buyout. He has 2 years left, which he absolutely wouldn't be bought out this year and would need a significant decline in his game next season to be bought out next off-season.

What a bizarre argument to bring up.



Saying Karlsson "maybe" will bring back a 3rd as a rental is downright asinine. If he continues to perform at his current level for the remainder of his deal, he's absolutely bringing back a 1st as a rental. The only reason there's even a question about him bringing back a 1st right now is the term left on his deal. As a rental at $5 million, teams would absolutely pay a nice price for that.



The signing bonuses are irrelevant when his yearly salary is so low. He's getting a $6 million signing bonus on July 1st 2026 because his salary in the 2026-2027 season is $1.5 million.

Karlsson is paid less than his AAV, that's a fact. Whether it's in the form of signing bonuses or salary means nothing for that.



Again, mentioning the "buyout proof" contract for Erik Karlsson as he's still one of the top scoring OFD in the league is dumb. He's not even close to being considered for a buyout and he only has 2 years left.

Trading Karlsson for money does literally nothing for the Penguins. They're owned by FSG, who are worth $14 billion, and have a ton of expiring contracts in the next few years. If the best they can do is the crappy return you're suggesting, they'd just keep him and use his AAV to hit the cap floor. There is no benefit for trading him for another contract to buy out, some shitty assets and saving a bit of money.

I see there direction this is going in, so I'm not going to get roped in - but what I will say is wait until the trade deadline or offseason and you can quote this post and laugh at me if you're right and I am wrong.

Karlsson will go for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, some marginal roster players or bad contracts, and some B or C prospects. Pittsburgh will retain. Maybe there will be some gaudy conditional elements in there for optics, but they will be incredibly unlikely to transfer.

The only exception would be something like Karlsson for another large underperforming contract like Josh Norris. Sort of like how Kuemper went for PLD.

Just come back in 2 or however many months it takes for him to be traded and quote this post. He is going to be dumped basically for cash with only B or C assets, or marginal roster players coming back to Pittsburgh.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I see there direction this is going in, so I'm not going to get roped in - but what I will say is wait until the trade deadline or offseason and you can quote this post and laugh at me if you're right and I am wrong.

Karlsson will go for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, some marginal roster players or bad contracts, and some B or C prospects. Pittsburgh will retain. Maybe there will be some gaudy conditional elements in there for optics, but they will be incredibly unlikely to transfer.

The only exception would be something like Karlsson for another large underperforming contract like Josh Norris. Sort of like how Kuemper went for PLD.

Just come back in 2 or however many months it takes for him to be traded and quote this post. He is going to be dumped basically for cash with only B or C assets, or marginal roster players coming back to Pittsburgh.

I mean, my prediction was Karlsson at $6 million to Dallas for Dumba and a 1st, so I don't see how this is all that different.

I don't think anyone is expecting a huge return for Karlsson. They'll be retaining a lot of money, take a cap dump back or two back and will likely get something like a late 1st, 2 2nds or a 2nd and a B prospect back along with the cap dump. I just don't see how Karlsson's contract being "buyout proof" has any implication here.

The return will basically be in the same mold as what the Sharks got back, but just with worse futures and the Penguins retaining more. San Jose only got back the Penguins 1st because they only retained $1.5 million, the Penguins will likely need to retain $4-$5 million while also getting lesser futures.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Trust me, no Sens fan wants to see him on Montreal or Toronto. Pittsburgh was bad enough.

I just think that he might waive to go there because of the proximity to Ottawa, and Montreal has bad contracts to make it work.

Habs are not after an offensive type RD. We have Matheson in that spot and believe it or not, we are happy about it.

I'm not even interested in 50% retention (bringing it down to $5M). The only guy I would trade for is Crosby and that's if he wants to come to Montreal. A circumstantial type trade where we give futures and Crosby has a short list of teams he would accept a trade. Wishful thinking yes but it's the truth

 

[elmaco]

Is his offense worth that glaring red defense? I wonder if he is a liability out there.

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

as a leaf fan it saddens me to see just how terrible Dubas is as a GM. A lot of wasted time and draft picks traded away like candy.

Sounds like Treliving

 

[The Shadow]

Sounds like Treliving

The GM of the first place team in the Atlantic who has been one of the worst hit teams in the NHL for injuries?

Also cleaning up Dubas’ mess.

 

[Turin]

Has Letang fallen off that badly? I admittedly haven't been paying attention to the Pens lately beyond occasionally glancing at the scoreboards and snickering.

Letang is aging out yes. He’s not a top pairing D on a good team. Karlsson still can be with the right partner.

 

[Turin]

The PK says NA but he played there a bit when the injuries on D hit and he did quite well. Much better than his ES D haha.

If you have a good defender to play him with, he's extremely valuable still. When he's with Pettersson they are usually one of the best pairings in the league.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Two more years after this?

Yeah, worth a gamble.

 

[Fordy]

nhl GMs are in for a RUDE awakening when they find out karlsson is bad defensively!

 

[Turin]

as a leaf fan it saddens me to see just how terrible Dubas is as a GM. A lot of wasted time and draft picks traded away like candy.

The Karlsson deal was awesome and exactly the kind of move the Pens needed to try. The Pens paid a 1st for a guy who had 100 points and also unloaded Petry, Rutta and Granlund. They got cap space in the deal. The problem that offseason was the free agent signings, despite being technically market value, weren't at all what the Pens needed.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I mean, my prediction was Karlsson at $6 million to Dallas for Dumba and a 1st, so I don't see how this is all that different.

I don't think anyone is expecting a huge return for Karlsson. They'll be retaining a lot of money, take a cap dump back or two back and will likely get something like a late 1st, 2 2nds or a 2nd and a B prospect back along with the cap dump. I just don't see how Karlsson's contract being "buyout proof" has any implication here.

The return will basically be in the same mold as what the Sharks got back, but just with worse futures and the Penguins retaining more. San Jose only got back the Penguins 1st because they only retained $1.5 million, the Penguins will likely need to retain $4-$5 million while also getting lesser futures.

Is Dubas really retaining $4 million in dead cap for the next two and a half years? At that point, may as well send Malkin out the door as well. If Crosby wants to be a #OneTeamGuy he can, although he should probably make a list to get himself another bite at the apple.

 

[Turin]

Is Dubas really retaining $4 million in dead cap for the next two and a half years? At that point, may as well send Malkin out the door as well. If Crosby wants to be a #OneTeamGuy he can, although he should probably make a list to get himself another bite at the apple.

Doesn't matter. Pens won't get a haul back for Malkin so you keep him around until he retires, which is coming up pretty soon.

 

[Darren McCord]

Is Dubas really retaining $4 million in dead cap for the next two and a half years? At that point, may as well send Malkin out the door as well. If Crosby wants to be a #OneTeamGuy he can, although he should probably make a list to get himself another bite at the apple.

OOO no they are retaining 4 million when the cap is going up like 5mill.
Minnie is 6th in the league with 15mill in dead cap.

You do whatever it takes to make a good team. 4mill is whatever if you make the team better.

Do I have faith in Dubas to do it, no. Does 4 mill in dead cap really hurt the team, also no.

 

[WarriorofTime]

OOO no they are retaining 4 million when the cap is going up like 5mill.
Minnie is 6th in the league with 15mill in dead cap.

You do whatever it takes to make a good team. 4mill is whatever if you make the team better.

Do I have faith in Dubas to do it, no. Does 4 mill in dead cap really hurt the team, also no.

The cap goes up for everyone though.

The Minnesota scenario is of course possible but also.. unexpected.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Is Dubas really retaining $4 million in dead cap for the next two and a half years? At that point, may as well send Malkin out the door as well. If Crosby wants to be a #OneTeamGuy he can, although he should probably make a list to get himself another bite at the apple.

Malkin is almost assuredly retiring after next year anyway.

He has also pretty clearly taken a step back so he wouldn't bring back anything worthwhile to justify trading him.

 

[Darren McCord]

The cap goes up for everyone though.

The Minnesota scenario is of course possible but also.. unexpected.

Correct but 4 mill doesnt got up. The percent of the cap goes down though.

Edm has 3mill in dead cap
Caps have 4mill in dead cap
canadiens have 4mill in dead cap
kings have 3mill in dead cap
canucks have 3.5mill in dead cap
Jets have 5.4 mill in dead cap

Like this is the modern NHL. Multiple top teams have 4 mill or more in dead cap. No one cares except fans lol

 

[OrrNumber4]

I wouldn't mind him back on the Sharks, even at a full cap hit. He gives some puck-moving ability, and the Sharks have the cap space!

 

[Sticksandsun]

If Penguins would take back Rodrigues [2 yrs x $3 M] and D like Balinskis, I'd hope Zito maybe throws a 1st for him.
Add one of Florida's 4th/5th ranked prospects in as well.

2026 1st
Prospect of need? C? W? D?
Middle 6 W - Rodrigues, 2.5 yr x 3 M
#6/7 LD - Balinskis, 1.5 yr x 850k

For

Karlsson [3.15 million retained]
2025 3rd round pick [better of PIT or OTT pick]

Florida takes on 6.85 mil in cap
Pittsburgh takes on 7 mil in cap.

Forsling - Karlsson
Mikkola - Ekblad
Kulikov - Schmidt

Karlsson should be able to replicate some of Montours missing PP numbers or Ekblad can as well.