Value of: Erik Karlsson at the draft

[Sol]

I think there’s a reason why Karlsson is good on bad teams. If I was a serious team looking to add I wouldn’t add a guy that can’t be a complimentary piece.

 

[Fourier]

I would consider Karlsson more valuable than either Chychrun or Ekholm.

I'll leave that to others to comment on for their own teams. For the Oilers Ekholm has brought a lot beyond his own contributions which have been substantial. His work with Bouchard has paid off immensely. Plus it is really on the defensive side that the Oilers needed more help. Ekholm has taken a lot of the pressure off of Nurse because of his ability to play against top opposition and come out ahead of the game. This has helped Nurse return to a level of play we have not seen on a consistent basis since 2020-21.

Karlsson is a superb talent. He reminds me of Coffey in many ways. But his cap hit in a time where the cap has been flat is a big issue for pretty much every contender.

 

[Irie]

Edmonton, Florida, Ottawa, and Seattle probably qualify for what you’re asking out of me but I wasn’t ever expecting the three first round pick ask out of all of them. It depends heavily on the parameters each team requires in getting Karlsson as it relates to retention and cap dumps.

I think you can safely remove Seattle from that list. Francis has never been one to trade assets for aging players, and the cap and need for Karlsson are just not there now.

The Kraken have no cap space (Dunn needs a big raise and they likely can't even afford to retain Soucy) and while not as offensively gifted as Karlsson, Dunn had 64 points and was great defensively while playing physical with an edge to his game.

They also don't have any moveable cap-dumps to even make a trade like this possible. Moving out salary would just create more holes for them elsewhere.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I think there’s a reason why Karlsson is good on bad teams. If I was a serious team looking to add I wouldn’t add a guy that can’t be a complimentary piece.

He was phenomenal in SJ his first season when they reached the WCF until he shredded his groin. He was arguably the best player in hockey for a month or two stretch before the injury.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think you can safely remove Seattle from that list. Francis has never been one to trade assets for aging players, and the cap and need for Karlsson are just not there now.

The Kraken have no cap space (Dunn needs a big raise and they likely can't even afford to retain Soucy) and while not as offensively gifted as Karlsson, Dunn had 64 points and was great defensively while playing physical with an edge to his game.

They also don't have any moveable cap-dumps to even make a trade like this possible. Moving out salary would just create more holes for them elsewhere.

Seattle has 20 mil in cap space. They don’t have this cap crunch you speak of. Interest may not be there but they definitely have the flexibility if they have the desire.

 

[BlueSeal]

Nuge has an actual good contract and is younger with less injury concerns. Not comparable.

Before this year the Sharks would've given him away for free. They should thank their lucky stars that he had this good of a year and get out fron that risky contract.

I'm not talking about, inferred or brought up Nuge or anyone else. And yes, the Sharks WOULD HAVE TO give him up for free because no one's taking that contract at full value. No one.

NOTHING has changed from the above since EK's epic point run. You still can't move him for free. You're going to have to take back something you won't want to make it work and get assets. No one's touching that contract.

Sharks will be required to retain OR take back cap dumps at 20-30%. Think Burns. That's how bad the contract is to move. You didn't sign EK to that contract to move him, you signed it to KEEP him. So you paid him that money for him to stay. THAT is what's going to come back to bite you now if you really want to move him for assets, you'll need to retain or take back a cap dump and news flash, you should.

Now here's the WORST part if you're a Sharks fan:

EK's success this year is only going to inspire the front office to keep him and pull a major retool in hopes they can make a run. That front office WILL NOT REBUILD.

And that's the biggest problem the Sharks have right now, because they need to.

 

[Irie]

Seattle has 20 mil in cap space. They don’t have this cap crunch you speak of. Interest may not be there but they definitely have the flexibility if they have the desire.

They do not have 20 million in cap space. They have 10 forwards making 43M and they 45 goals heading to free agency that they either need to reup at subastantial raises or fill through free agency (their farm is so young they don't have players ready to make the jump in October).

Dunn and Borgen are going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 10M combined on D. If they resign Soucy, their D would be coming in at 26-27M (without Soucy they are likely around 22.5 on D).

They have Grubauer at 6 and need a back-up. If they roll with Driedger(who is under contract and recovering from knee surgery in Coachella), that is another 3.5.

That gives them roughly 8.5M with 4 players to sign and to replace the 45 goals that are not under contract. If they bring back Geekie and Sprong (Likely), they are going to have about 4-4.5 million for 2 players plus Karlsson. Assuming the two players are league minimum contracts, and they have less than 3 million to work Karlsson in plus whatever they move out. Schultz(NTC) would likely have to be in the deal and It would also probably require Francis to trade someone like Eberle(NTC), Bjorkstrand(NTC), Wennberg(NTC) or Schwartz(NMC), (and possibly two of) and would open up a hole up front.

It would require a lot of cap-gymnastics and moving contracts to make Karlsson work, and Francis doesn't even have enough farm to have a rookie camp. Giving up a lot of futures on top of wrangling that cap is almost certainly not going to be something Francis (based on his history) would be interested in.

 

[Gecklund]

I would be more than happy to see EK stay in SJ if that is what he wants. I'd also love to see where he has expressed a commitment to stay. This is basically what has been reported.

San Jose Sharks’ Erik Karlsson disappointed with Timo Meier trade:



He did say



Not exactly a ringing endorsement but if you have an update that shows he is committed to the rebuild I'd be very happy to see it.

So you pull an article from 2 months ago. Maybe look at his end of season quotes. Real simple to do.

Cale Makar has a cap hit of $9M. A 33 year old UFA Karlsson won't get more than Makar, but that's me.

You have to remember his prior cap hit was due to his stud D in the playoffs his final year with Ottawa. He was the single reason they made it that far, and SJ thought he would bring that playoff domination to them. That didn't happen, so here we are.

After 4 subpar seasons with SJ, he has a single stalwart season, and you expect teams to bend over backward for him? Doesn't work like that.

Makar was an RFA in what world is that comparable?

You have to remember that he had the best season of 30 years for a dman.

“subpar” my ass. He scored 0.7 PPG+ in all seasons he’s been in SJ except one. I don’t expect teams to bend over backwards but we aren’t trading him for a late first and a B prospect. That’s dumb and I have genuinely no idea why that’s so difficult to comprehend for Oiler fans.

 

[TheBeard]

I'm not talking about, inferred or brought up Nuge or anyone else. And yes, the Sharks WOULD HAVE TO give him up for free because no one's taking that contract at full value. No one.

NOTHING has changed from the above since EK's epic point run. You still can't move him for free. You're going to have to take back something you won't want to make it work and get assets. No one's touching that contract.

Sharks will be required to retain OR take back cap dumps at 20-30%. Think Burns. That's how bad the contract is to move. You didn't sign EK to that contract to move him, you signed it to KEEP him. So you paid him that money for him to stay. THAT is what's going to come back to bite you now if you really want to move him for assets, you'll need to retain or take back a cap dump and news flash, you should.

Now here's the WORST part if you're a Sharks fan:

EK's success this year is only going to inspire the front office to keep him and pull a major retool in hopes they can make a run. That front office WILL NOT REBUILD.

And that's the biggest problem the Sharks have right now, because they need to.

I don't think so. Grier seems to have made it clear this weekend that's not the case.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They do not have 20 million in cap space. They have 10 forwards making 43M and they 45 goals heading to free agency that they either need to reup at subastantial raises or fill through free agency (their farm is so young they don't have players ready to make the jump in October).

Dunn and Borgen are going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 10M combined on D. If they resign Soucy, their D would be coming in at 26-27M (without Soucy they are likely around 22.5 on D).

They have Grubauer at 6 and need a back-up. If they roll with Driedger(who is under contract and recovering from knee surgery in Coachella), that is another 3.5.

That gives them roughly 8.5M with 4 players to sign and to replace the 45 goals that are not under contract. If they bring back Geekie and Sprong (Likely), they are going to have about 4-4.5 million for 2 players plus Karlsson. Assuming the two players are league minimum contracts, and they have less than 3 million to work Karlsson in plus whatever they move out. Schultz(NTC) would likely have to be in the deal and It would also probably require Francis to trade someone like Eberle(NTC), Bjorkstrand(NTC), Wennberg(NTC) or Schwartz(NMC), (and possibly two of) and would open up a hole up front.

It would require a lot of cap-gymnastics and moving contracts to make Karlsson work, and Francis doesn't even have enough farm to have a rookie camp. Giving up a lot of futures on top of wrangling that cap is almost certainly not going to be something Francis (based on his history) would be interested in.

Yeah, we're talking about Sprong, Donato, and Geekie here. They're not difficult to replace with cheaper options. None of those guys are going to require substantial raises or Francis will move them. The simple fact is that they have 20 mil in cap space before they deal with their expiring contracts for four forwards, three defensemen, and maybe a goalie. They have the flexibility to make a move here if they so choose. Any Karlsson trade requires cap gymnastics and the Kraken are positioned to do so if they so choose. The addition of Karlsson would easily replace any goals lost up front.

 

[CanadienShark]

EK is NOT a good Dman, I'm so sick and tired of hearing that. What he is, is a very talented forward playing the wrong position. As a Dman he desperately requires sheltering otherwise he's a liability. Yes, he will score like a madman but you'll also get scored on as well.

The one thing that makes him a must-have is his ability to have another gear in his game for when things get really tough. The guy is an absolute warrior who will go to war wearing your logo, play damn near crippled and not lose a step. Used correctly he can be that missing piece if firepower is the issue. He'll work best on a team with a deep and strong blueline that can mitigate his risk at D.

IMO, at 32, he is definitely worth 2 1sts. He is absolutely worth a 1st at this draft plus next year's but again his contract is the issue. No one should be paying that kind of money for a Dman who really isn't one. 11.5M x 4 is atrocious and if the Sharks REALLY want draft picks and prospects, they're going to need to take back cap dumps because it's the only way you're going to get value here.

But since the front office seems to be deadset on retooling than rebuilding, I can't see them being willing to trade EK. That makes no sense whatsoever.

So if your blueline desperately needs a top 4 on a lacking D Corps, he ain't it. But if you need firepower and your blueline is strong, here's your guy.

But I don't see the Sharks letting him go.

Maybe it's being sick and tired all the time that prevents you from watching Karlsson. Once you're healthy, feel free to watch a game. No way he's nearly as effective as a forward.

 

[Irie]

Yeah, we're talking about Sprong, Donato, and Geekie here. They're not difficult to replace with cheaper options. None of those guys are going to require substantial raises or Francis will move them. The simple fact is that they have 20 mil in cap space before they deal with their expiring contracts for four forwards, three defensemen, and maybe a goalie. They have the flexibility to make a move here if they so choose. Any Karlsson trade requires cap gymnastics and the Kraken are positioned to do so if they so choose. The addition of Karlsson would easily replace any goals lost up front.

You premise is completely based on the ludicrous idea that they dump their good free agents and all of their depth so they have 20M to trade for Karlsson. That scenario is a just plain crazy.

Driedger is under contract. Dunn and Borgen are going to be expensive to re-sign. They do not have 20M in free cap.

44 goals coming from guys averaging less than 11 minutes per game. You think that production is easily replaceable with league minimum contracts?

Is Karlsson going to score 40 goals?

If Seattle decided to not re-sign any of their FA forwards, they still are 3 million short to take on Karlsson, and would still need to somehow add 4 players.

Unless you are advocating they dump Dunn to make room, which would be extrememly counter productive. (His better defense and chippy play make him a better fit for Seattle who's forward group is far from physical, not to mention he will cost a third less in cap and no assets wasted to retain).

Seriously, take Seattle off the list. The entire idea is poorly thought out.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Well sounds like Karlsson is perfectly fine on a basement dweller which is a good thing because nobody is taking that contact unless the Sharks keeping a bunch and giving him away.

 

[PAZ]

As this thread has shown, the most probable outcome is that Karlsson finishes his career in San Jose.

The combination of his cap hit, age, injury history, and play makes him a polarizing player, which makes it near impossible to make a deal.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You premise is completely based on the ludicrous idea that they dump their good free agents and all of their depth so they have 20M to trade for Karlsson. That scenario is a just plain crazy.

Driedger is under contract. Dunn and Borgen are going to be expensive to re-sign. They do not have 20M in free cap.

44 goals coming from guys averaging less than 11 minutes per game. You think that production is easily replaceable with league minimum contracts?

Is Karlsson going to score 40 goals?

If Seattle decided to not re-sign any of their FA forwards, they still are 3 million short to take on Karlsson, and would still need to somehow add 4 players.

Unless you are advocating they dump Dunn to make room, which would be extrememly counter productive. (His better defense and chippy play make him a better fit for Seattle who's forward group is far from physical, not to mention he will cost a third less in cap and no assets wasted to retain).

Seriously, take Seattle off the list. The entire idea is poorly thought out.

How about no?

 

[Irie]

How about no?

Fair enough. lf imagining impossible scenarios makes you happy, then I say roll with it

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Fair enough. lf imagining impossible scenarios makes you happy, then I say roll with it

I’ve seen enough things you call impossible happen so I’d reel it in.

 

[Gecklund]

Well sounds like Karlsson is perfectly fine on a basement dweller which is a good thing because nobody is taking that contact unless the Sharks keeping a bunch and giving him away.

And this is why HF gets made fun of by the media. Because you have dumbass takes like this spewed everyday and no one bats an eye.

 

[Irie]

I’ve seen enough things you call impossible happen so I’d reel it in.

Please, share a single instance where I said something was impossible and then it happened.

I tend to fall on the side of realistic in my takes on these forums. I know I have responded to several unrealistic takes of yours over the years, and I do not recall a single time your predictions have actually happened. I know because I make it a point to give props to posters that were correct on predictions and eat my crow when I am wrong. I have never had to do that when having discussions with you because most of your takes are rather ludicrous.

Like todays gem. You were suggesting that the Kraken have 20 million in cap space, totally ignoring their RFAs and rehabbing goalie contract. When shown how the numbers are actually much too tight to fit an 11.5M contract, you say "The simple fact is that they have 20 mil in cap space before they deal with their expiring contracts.." - as if their #1 D and #4 D are just fodder they are maybe going to let expire, ignoring their other goalie contract, and pretending like their depth guys aren't a large reason for the team's success this year.

Instead of acknowledging you were ill-informed on situations, you always come back with crazier takes that double down on your original posts.

It is ok to admit that you did not have all the information sometimes. No one has all the info for every team. There is no shame in that, and it takes courage and character to admit you were wrong.

 

[HockeyF3ind]

Its hilarious he scored 101 points as a defenseman and its still gonna be hard to trade him.

 

[Irie]

Its hilarious he scored 101 points as a defenseman and its still gonna be hard to trade him.

It's a catch-22.

Teams that want and could use him can't afford his cap hit. Teams that can afford his cap hit are not in a position to give up assets to acquire him or take on the 40M financial obligation.

 

[Leafs87]

Anyone making a Karlsson trade has to factor in this year which may be an abnormally but also his last like 3-4. The likelyhood he comes close to this season again isn’t high IMO.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Please, share a single instance where I said something was impossible and then it happened.

I tend to fall on the side of realistic in my takes on these forums. I know I have responded to several unrealistic takes of yours over the years, and I do not recall a single time your predictions have actually happened. I know because I make it a point to give props to posters that were correct on predictions and eat my crow when I am wrong. I have never had to do that when having discussions with you because most of your takes are rather ludicrous.

Like todays gem. You were suggesting that the Kraken have 20 million in cap space, totally ignoring their RFAs and rehabbing goalie contract. When shown how the numbers are actually much too tight to fit an 11.5M contract, you say "The simple fact is that they have 20 mil in cap space before they deal with their expiring contracts.." - as if their #1 D and #4 D are just fodder they are maybe going to let expire, ignoring their other goalie contract, and pretending like their depth guys aren't a large reason for the team's success this year.

Instead of acknowledging you were ill-informed on situations, you always come back with crazier takes that double down on your original posts.

It is ok to admit that you did not have all the information sometimes. No one has all the info for every team. There is no shame in that, and it takes courage and character to admit you were wrong.

A long winded way of saying they have the flexibility needed if they so choose. You didn’t think Burns would get dealt either. I don’t care to engage in depth with someone pretending the numbers aren’t what they are.

 

[Cas]

I think there’s a reason why Karlsson is good on bad teams. If I was a serious team looking to add I wouldn’t add a guy that can’t be a complimentary piece.

He's also been good on good teams. He's just not had the fortune to play for a lot of good teams, which has nothing to do with him and everything to do with his GMs.

 

[DJN21]

He had 100 points. Ceci and Kulak offer nothing to us. The offer was a late first and a B prospect for the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. That’s shit.

And for the record I agree with your overall point. I literally said to add another first or good prospect for SJ to take 2 cap dumps and retain. Now we wouldn’t retain 3.5M without a team making it worth our while which this offer does not do in the slightest.

Oh yes because we should be lining up to pay a team to take Karlsson. Brilliant post. Again the offer was two cap dumps, a B prospect, and a late first in a not great draft for again the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. Stupid offer. That’s like me saying give me Nuge for NJD 1st, Bordeleau, Labanc, and Benning. Stupid post. Even then I think my offer is better than that shitty Karlsson one.

you aren't wrong by any means. But the sharks are 100% selling high in this instance. He will probably never hit these point totals again. He's a year older. He makes a ton of money. This is like the worst case scenario for the Sharks....trying to trade him now that is. Sharks arent winning with or without him so you might as well sell at his high point. But then again everyone and every GM knows that so you aren't gonna get record setting Dman value for him...