Erie Otters 2022-23 Off-Season Thread (Part 2)
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Oh, I’m not convinced either but what’s the alternative?
Their OA options are:
Gilmartin
Saganiuk
Bressette
Johnston
We don’t know if Gilmartin will even be back but Erie will owe London an additional 3rd in 2025 if he returns which leaves them with zero 2nds/3rds in 2025. And for what type of production? It’s just Golden 2.0 (a horrible trade). Doesn’t make sense to keep 3 OA forwards either because Terrance, Spence, Molnar, Fimis, import (assuming they draft one at 1), and Alfano would already occupy 6 FWD spots. At least Johnston gives you a body so if/when you consider moving Sova, you aren’t left super young or inexperienced. In an ideal world for me, the young players start to actually develop and take over, Gilmartin is gone and they retain a 3rd in 2025, they move Sova for let’s say 2 high picks and a 2006 born forward, and they even have options to move Bressette.
You go into 2024-25 with extra high draft picks to work with and what could be a good nucleus built mainly around Terrance, Spence, Schaefer, 1st overall import, and Molnar
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Bressette
For sure Bressette gets one spot.
For sure gets one spot and Saganiuk probably a 2nd. Either leave the third o/a spot open until the deadline or trade for an o/a before the season starts. A few weeks ago I mentioned that some of the contenders may have multiple quality o/a candidates for next season. Don't know that for a fact, just basing that on past seasons.
For sure Bressette gets one spot.
If he comes back it is merely to mentor younger players and have a bit of stability in the back. He's not our best defender and he's not our least skilled either.
I think Bressette is a lock for an OA spot. That leaves 2 spots for Saganiuk, Gilmartin, and Johnston to fight for. Nothing says we have to keep all 3 spots and maybe with next season a possible run we don't carry 3 as to have less experienced guys get more ice.
The short of it, I have Saganiuk > Johnston > Gilmartin for the last 2 spots but am not convinced Stan will keep any or all of those 3.
Terrance/Spence/Bressette
Fimis/Molnar/Alfano
Smith/McDonald/Artichuk
Edwards/Messier/Import
2 future prospects?
Sova/Albloim
Schaefer/Sauder
Daviault>Henry>Holomego
1 or 2 future prospects?
Those lines are NOT meant to be anything about what the team lines are projected in my mind I just listed out in groups of 3 for offense and 2 for defense minus thr last pairing. So there is the chance if a run in 24/25 is the goal Stan releases 2 of the 3 overagers up front and possibly even Johnston.
Truth is, we just don't know what SB's goal is with regards to transforming the roster/play style and the next piece of the puzzle is the draft.
My only concern would be wasting yet again more assets on a middle pack team at best. They already have shot themselves in the foot enough by wasting assets on teams that missed the playoffs. I currently have them with a 2nd/4th in 2024 draft, and only a 4th in 2025 unless they get back a 3rd on the Gilmartin conditional. Imo they need to add some assets not lose more despite how tempting it may seem
My personal stance:
If Erie doesn’t want to keep Johnston because they have better options in house - that’s fine by me. I agree he is not the most enticing OA fit. But I’m not wasting more assets to upgrade externally. Nope. It’s on DB to have made the right hire and on SB to actually develop what he has and use his system, that some fans seem to think makes him special, to get the most out of this squad. This is the most talented roster they have had since 2019-20 and it’s probably not debatable. It might be their best roster since the rebuild began. But personally I wouldn’t waste any assets on it and if I’m JW, I’m stepping in and telling DB that he doesn’t get to keep spitting out picks for little return on investment in order to try to bail out his poor drafts, poor hires, and other poor transactions. Win a little with what you got. If DB did his job the last year, and made the right hire, they should start to see some progress and at minimum make the playoffs without even adding a single player via trade
Between 2022 unsigned picks, FAs, u18, etc., there could be another addition to the bottom 6 forward group. I think the only locks are:
Terrance, Spence, Molnar, Fimis, Alfano, Bressette
If they sign an import F at 1st overall, they are a lock. Given the way draft cycles work, it’s probably likely Erie targets a F at 23rd overall this weekend with the intention that they are on the 2023-24 roster. That puts the team at 8 forwards and leaves Saganiuk/Gilmartin as OA options. Between Edwards, Artichuk, Messier, Smith, and McDonald - I would expect 1/2 get released given their age and up to this point, what they have shown. Unless those players start to establish themselves more, there isn’t going to be room to keep 2/3 19 year olds on the 4th line.
I agree that the team doesn’t need to keep all 3 OAs. It’s probably better in some ways that they don’t, like you said in order to let the younger guys get ice. They obviously want to win a bit this year though so they are going to try to create the best roster possible and that might mean 3 OAs, at least to start
I can’t imagine.. I don’t dispute what SB wants or your thinking here because you probably are right haha but again his window - per his statements to GoErie - is 2 years. That’s all he committed to. So Erie should not allow SB to dictate their draft philosophy when most of the players will barely play under him if that timeline holds true.
Also, when did he make that comment? Because if it was before the lotto/Schaefer situation, it’s in a different context. I don’t think Erie expected to be where they are at today, about to take Schaefer 1 overall. I just listened to DB interview yesterday on a OHL draft preview podcast and they asked about having 1st overall in the OHL, u18, and import drafts. DB essentially said what we all speculated or how we would approach it - if you take a D in one of those drafts, you probably look to F in the other.
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Honestly though.. you could be onto something. I don’t trust management and Erie has to at least ensure they sign their 1st overall import so if that is the best player they can get, that type of player, they probably do it
I believe the question was in the context of coaching. But he also said he enjoyed his retirement and wasn’t in some rush to get back to coaching. DB reached out to him and he largely joined Erie on the back of that connection, or rather friendship spanning decades, with DB
I honestly don’t understand the theory about him sticking here long term as a GM after coaching. He wasn’t that successful in NB. So like where is that coming from? Are people wanting it to happen? Or do they just think it’s the type of silly, wrong move the org would make (which is probaby true)? If he finds success as a head coach, it means DB made the right hire and will still be here. He is much younger so it seems unlikely for him to just retire/move on so that SB can take over. If SB struggles as a head coach, why in the world would JW then want to retain him as a GM when he was buddies with the prior GM that brought him in? The theory doesn’t hold a lot of water imo unless people have heard stuff behind the scenes which in that case, please DM me.
But we have established that. And I have never disputed that. Totally agree with you. But why is he still here? Billets can say what they want but JW hasn’t fired him yet. If they were going to move on from him, it would (or defintiely at least should) be before he makes all these rather critical draft decisions.
To me, if you move on from DB you probably need to clean house and that would include his buddy, SB. Idk what JW is waiting for but if he is giving DB one more year, and then it goes south, he really needs to hire externally and dig into the pockets to hire a legit candiate. If he thinks replacing DB with SB (who would have just coached the team to a bad year) is a smart move then we are in serious, serious trouble.
I just personally wouldn’t connect the SB hire to some master plan. Their last 2 coaching hires were complete misses and they couldn’t afford to take another flyer. At minimum they needed a guy with experience who could at least get Erie back to competency so they can reset here. That fit the mold with SB, who happened to be best buds with DB who was making the coaching hire. And for JW it made sense because it probably wasn’t as expensive as bringing on a hot commodity. Personally, idk what JW is doing here. After they fired BJ and the way DB handled the deadline, I would have moved on. I wouldn’t have given DB the latitude to pick the next guy. I’m concerned that JW, while professional, personable, and with the right intentions, doesn’t know what he is doing and isn’t able or willing to make the hard, aggressive moves
I base it off the fact that the mood in the arena...
Employees, Billet Families, and Fans were calling for Hartsburg's job. In comes BJ...the patience kind of renewed but then when it was obvious the team started hot because of talent and fizzled because of lack of development, the situation returned, much quicker than with Hartsburg.
Let's reset one more time, they got rid of BJ and in comes SB. People weren't expecting miracles, but they expected a much better showing after BJ than what was presented. Who is left from the old regime? Vince and Wes didn't have much say in the last few seasons, so that leaves DB.
The pulse of the organization wants him gone, friends with SB or not. If that continues into the first week of the season, JW will likely be forced another hand. He's not getting rid of SB. I agree Stan is likely not long term, but he has spent time as both a HC and as a GM. The next logical step is replacing DB if you actually listen to the majority of people who pay the bills.
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Again, I’m not saying they won’t replace DB or the org, billets, fans don’t have issues. That’s all 100% true but what does that mean right now? DB is still here.. so let’s look at current situation on 4/19/23.
What I’m saying is that the current circumstances right now are such that DB is at least here to start the year, right? Do you agree with that?
So, if they haven’t fired DB yet then why would they fire him if things start or go well. Right? Do you agree? I’m not saying things will start well but just laying out the scenarios..
Now, if things go poorly or they get off to another bad start, that won’t just be on DB imo. Because ultimately the roster is probably in the best spot since the rebuild started. I’m not saying they would then fire SB after a few months but if you start bad enough to fire DB then you also have to again question the on ice development which goes to coaching. To then give that coach more responsibility or a dual GM/HC role seems a bit silly, no? If you can’t handle one thing, why give more responsibility?
The point being - SB success = DB still here. If DB is gone that means the development is still not happening. And the point with DB/SB being friends has ZERO to do with DB staying or whether billets like him, that’s not my point. My point is if things go bad and you need to fire DB, why are you then starting a new regime with a guy that HE brought on? The same guy you just said is not a good GM, doesn’t make good hires, doesn’t know what he’s doing… so let’s keep and promote his hire? I don’t like that approach… (and the org shouldn’t either if they knew how to run a business)
I’m trying to articulate this but I guess my bottom line is if the team continues on this trend, leading to a DB firing, the team needs a complete reset. JW just replacing with SB seems cheap and like the same type of move of just replacing Hartsburg with BJ. Meh. It’s not good enough imo. Now all this said, I don’t have much confidence in JW making the hard, tough decisions so just retaining SB and making him GM would be a move the org would make. Because it’s kind of cheap and easy. I just personally think it’s not the smartest or most aggressive move to make, especially when they need to change their approach because it’s not working
I don't necessarily agree with one point...
Coaching makes or breaks development. I feel like at this point if our 3rd coach can't reach these kids, maybe it's more on who we select vs their development/talent level.
I think coaching is one of the larger factors, but not the only factor in development both on and off ice for these kids.
So stay with me here: This will be our 3rd cycle of coaches in as many seasons. What if our scouts and GM are misfiring on people they recommend to bring in as draft picks? I'm not saying it all falls on the kids, but I will agree SOMETHING, some unknown, is at play in Erie where our kids do not seem to be developing at the rate of other clubs. If SB doesn't pan out, we fire him, and hire another coach and if kids still don't develop?
I assume you see where I'm going with it. SB could be a phenomenal coach, I guess BJ and Hartsburg (in theory) could be better than advertised but if kids aren't buying into them, their coaching styles, or their philosophy and this is the 3rd coach...is it a coaching issue or has it maybe become a player issue that we also need to look at.
I think the thing we can agree on is SB was at least a move outside of "the glory days". Whether he is a future GM, he's successful or not, etc has yet to be written, but it checks off another box in the grand scheme of trying to fix a broken program.
I totally agree with the drafting aspect. Like I said, if Erie starts off bad, I don’t think they would nor would I want them to just fire SB. But I guess my point is that DB, who we are accusing with making all these other horrible decisions (which is fair criticism I agree with), is the guy that picked SB. So how can we be sure he’s the answer too?
But I will say this regarding the drafting vs development - we just don’t know right now. Sproule and Lockhart instantly found success elsewhere as two case studies. At least in terms of their first round picks, external scouts or draft followers haven’t really suggested that Erie is heavily reaching or taking major gambles on their top picks. Yes, some might have been selected 1/2 spots higher than their “projection” but the projections are all subjective and don’t account for recruitment. As of right now, I lean on coaching slightly more than drafting as the bigger issue just because the last 2 coaches we had are not successful elsewhere or never were even a HC before. Like 60 / 40 if we split a blame pie. That said it’s 100% a valid point you bring up - because the drafting/scouts have to take some blame too. And ultimately that falls on DB who oversees it and has limited their resources to getting the best players. Everything is connected.
Btw, if anyone is interest, you should subscribe to Puck Preps at least for the month. Really great insight on the top prospects, including MS and RR
puckpreps.com
The above link and article really dives into what the writer/scout would do if he were the Otters, based on the Otters current roster and needs. He agrees with MS as the best option and also points out that BM/RR maybe aren’t the best fits for Erie if they wanted a FWD at 1 overall.
Like we have been saying, the org probably wanted an elite FWD C at 1st overall but this just isn’t the class to fit their needs, especially once Moore went US. Erie is simply shifting to just taking the BPA which I think is smart.
Three Cases for First Overall in the 2023 OHL Draft - PuckPreps
We're just two days away from the 2023 OHL Draft and the Erie Otters hold the ever so desired first-overall pick. So I put myself in their shoes and discussed the potential options of who I'd be considering and why. I haven't considered fit and team needs in my rankings…
puckpreps.com
The above link and article really dives into what the writer/scout would do if he were the Otters, based on the Otters current roster and needs. He agrees with MS as the best option and also points out that BM/RR maybe aren’t the best fits for Erie if they wanted a FWD at 1 overall.
Like we have been saying, the org probably wanted an elite FWD C at 1st overall but this just isn’t the class to fit their needs, especially once Moore went US. Erie is simply shifting to just taking the BPA which I think is smart.
Your first paragraph accurately describes why many people believe SB is the replacement for DB if things go south or even if they don't and DB is gone in either scenario.
If the atmosphere at the games this past season didn't paint a picture of what a good majority wants, then Waters is extremely out of touch as an owner as he was at a lot of the home games this season and often times was very available to fans there. Those close to operations (STH, Employees, and Billets) wanted BJ AND DB gone at the same time. I believe keeping one was the best choice. The team apparently lost trust in BJ and DB was saved by the voice of the team rather than shortcomings by himself.
So, the thirst was quenched, at least in part, by bringing in Stan Butler once BJ was let go. A "legend" who has years of experience as both a HC and a GM and could have an immediate impact on the organization. What's interesting is OHL Insiders seemed to know SB was the choice well before it was even announced...this was the last act of desperation for DB to save his job IMO. If DB wasnt concerned about his job he would have let Vince and Wes ride out the season because they didnt do half bad. His moves (pretty questionable trades) this past year were his first acts of desparation and a lot of people knew this. Perhaps DB thought Stan was an ace up his sleeve, I dunno. We brought in Stan, Fimis reports around the same time, and the team still tanked pretty badly.
The trades were luke warm and the season didn't improve with Stan in the sense of wins/losses with DB as the remaining part of the original equation. The voices calling for DB heading into the season finale were as loud as could be and there is no doubt Jim has to know his base, which was extremely present this year, is chomping at the bit for good fun hockey. I would rate DB's job, regardless of how the team performs early, as still on very thin ice. Without knowing the inner workings, I have to believe Jim at least trusts Stan to take the reigns if he pulls the trigger on DB either before the season starts or in the first half, why, because Stan has held both positions down before.
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I know it’s a little off the beaten path. But still cool to see ex players doing well!
www.echl.com
Idaho’s Headrick named ECHL Defenseman of the Year
The ECHL on Wednesday announced that Owen Headrick of the Idaho Steelheads is the ECHL Defenseman of the Year for 2022-23 as determined in a vote of ECHL coaches, broadcasters, media relations directors and media members. The ECHL Defenseman of the Year award is presented annually to the...
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Like I’ve said, I worry about JW being willing or capable of making the aggressive, correct moves. I understand STHs and employees or anyone close to the org wanting DB gone.. so does everyone with a pulse following the product from close or afar. The rebuild is a mess. It doesn’t take someone close to the org to see that. But JW still has DB employed… despite all this crap, despite all the complaining from those close, despite the losses - the guy is still in his role. Is it a contract issue? Maybe. But then again that’s a cheap, careless move by JW. JW has had as good as any reasons to pull the trigger and he still hasn’t…
In terms of SB/JW relationship- who knows. As you say, you don’t know the inner workings but the move was clearly made by DB as a last effort to save his job. So you pretty much agree SB is here entirely because of DB, like it wasn’t some plan by JW to have a backup HC/GM in place for when he fires DB. I’m sure JW was happy to hire him tho because he was cheap and he previously was cool with BJ and Hartsburg so SB is basically Vince Lombardi to JW. Prior to DB reaching out and hiring SB, SB had no relationship with JW. Hard to believe all the sudden JW has trust or faith in a guy to run his team when he just met him a few months ago. If that were the case, again that just further speaks to my worries with JW in this role.
Anyone know what’s going on here? Seems to be at least in part connected to Erie Panthers with that color scheme
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