Erie Otters 2022-23 Off-Season Thread (Part 2)

[Mata]

I have a feeling they pick a forward in the OHL draft and take a defenseman in the U18, and import draft. If they can find a goalie, you look at that option too.

That is my gut feeling as to how it unfolds...nail a sure fire offensive talent that best compliments our current skill players. Roobroeck would be here for 3 seasons minimum which is pretty huge if he performs as projected. His major question mark is his skating and how he is an up and down player but not so much side to side. Martin offers the elite skating we are accustomed to and may be the player with a higher upside but needs 1 year to get up to speed IMO.

Trying to piece together a team based off of SB here is my reasoning we don't go for Schaefer as consensus number 1...If Schaefer is the best player in the draft with what we've lost this past season, he's high on the radar, but we already have 2 blue liners with the offense build in Sova and Daviault. Unless SB has changed his mentality and it has evolved from his previous coaching style, I'm not sure another one of elite skating and offensive ability is on the radar. SB has the pedigree of strong, big defense, with positioning in the middle being a staple. The NHL is changing into the hybrid defenders similar to Cale Makar, or even what we saw in Drysdale, but has our current HC?

Now for me personally if I were not an internet GM, I'd take the most talented kid who is a 100% lock to report as all 3 mentioned have the ability to be game changers and adjust the import draft to compliment the first one (go offense, import is defender, go defense, import is offense). One has to assume there are multiple contingencies for either scenario. The Erie Otters organization needs to make this draft one that has a lasting impact for 2 - 3 seasons, minimum.

 

[NOA]

I have a feeling they pick a forward in the OHL draft and take a defenseman in the U18, and import draft. If they can find a goalie, you look at that option too.

Tbf, you can’t rely on the u18 for much of anything. It’s legit a lottery ticket. At best you get DAmato but he’s one of maybe 3-4 players to ever really be successful in that draft.

I hope they go forward in the OHL draft but I dont think it’s worth discussing the u18 draft anymore. It’s such a toss up

 

[NOA]

That is my gut feeling as to how it unfolds...nail a sure fire offensive talent that best compliments our current skill players. Roobroeck would be here for 3 seasons minimum which is pretty huge if he performs as projected. His major question mark is his skating and how he is an up and down player but not so much side to side. Martin offers the elite skating we are accustomed to and may be the player with a higher upside but needs 1 year to get up to speed IMO.

Trying to piece together a team based off of SB here is my reasoning we don't go for Schaefer as consensus number 1...If Schaefer is the best player in the draft with what we've lost this past season, he's high on the radar, but we already have 2 blue liners with the offense build in Sova and Daviault. Unless SB has changed his mentality and it has evolved from his previous coaching style, I'm not sure another one of elite skating and offensive ability is on the radar. SB has the pedigree of strong, big defense, with positioning in the middle being a staple. The NHL is changing into the hybrid defenders similar to Cale Makar, or even what we saw in Drysdale, but has our current HC?

Now for me personally if I were not an internet GM, I'd take the most talented kid who is a 100% lock to report as all 3 mentioned have the ability to be game changers and adjust the import draft to compliment the first one (go offense, import is defender, go defense, import is offense). One has to assume there are multiple contingencies for either scenario. The Erie Otters organization needs to make this draft one that has a lasting impact for 2 - 3 seasons, minimum.

Do we know that Roobroeck is sure fire? I think some are downplaying his performance at the OHL Cup. It wasn’t good. I think it’s risky to overhype a performance in that tourney but it’s just as risky to downplay the performance of a player who is/was supposed to be the top dog in the class. If he was that sure fire, he should have had at least 1/2 games of standout, no? Unless there is some undisclosed injury or other issue to cause the performance, it’s a red flag. I don’t think Martin is sure fire either. And that is the problem with the draft right now. Schaefer maybe has a lower ceiling but has a higher floor.

Again, I still lean on personally taking Roobroeck as well but I definitely have questions now. From everything I am reading, it seems like he didn’t improve as much as maybe some expected over the last year. Doesn’t mean he sucks but could also be leveling off because he’s hitting his peak. Who knows. This is a hard age to evaluate. I remember John McFarland being so hyped, going 1 overall, and never reaching that hype. Imo Roobroeck certainly doesn’t have the skill or natural ability of a Misa, Wright, etc which is why he didn’t get ES. This isn’t cut and dry. It probably comes down to who will report, who interviews well, and the style of player they want. Hard part is, we don’t necessarily know any of that because they have a new head coach, a new system, and they have their backs against the wall

Going to be a fun few weeks!

 

[Bra Wavers]

Tbf, you can’t rely on the u18 for much of anything. It’s legit a lottery ticket. At best you get DAmato but he’s one of maybe 3-4 players to ever really be successful in that draft.

I hope they go forward in the OHL draft but I dont think it’s worth discussing the u18 draft anymore. It’s such a toss up

The U18 draft can be a crapshoot, but it can't be totally discounted.
The Petes hit the jackpot in 2020 when they picked Samuel Mayer - he's been their best defenseman the past two seasons and is an OA lock for next year.
SB would be thrilled to pick up a Dman like Mayer.

 

[NOA]

The U18 draft can be a crapshoot, but it can't be totally discounted.
The Petes hit the jackpot in 2020 when they picked Samuel Mayer - he's been their best defenseman the past two seasons and is an OA lock for next year.
SB would be thrilled to pick up a Dman like Mayer.

And he was picked 15th overall.. which just reinforces how much it’s like picking lottery tickets. Yes, you can find some players which is why I said about 3-4 have been successful. But the reality is, it’s not something you can rely on when rebuilding. I am not totally discounting but let’s be real, it’s a crapshoot. You might hit one lotto ticket for 1k but doesn’t mean you are successful long term playing scratch offs..

 

[Pholus]

And he was picked 15th overall.. which just reinforces how much it’s like picking lottery tickets. Yes, you can find some players which is why I said about 3-4 have been successful. But the reality is, it’s not something you can rely on when rebuilding. I am not totally discounting but let’s be real, it’s a crapshoot. You might hit one lotto ticket for 1k but doesn’t mean you are successful long term playing scratch offs..

Another example of how much of a crapshoot it is would be another Petes dman in Gavin White. 3rd round pick in the u18 draft in 2019, now a legit NHL prospect with a contract already signed.

 

[dirty12]

And he was picked 15th overall.. which just reinforces how much it’s like picking lottery tickets. Yes, you can find some players which is why I said about 3-4 have been successful. But the reality is, it’s not something you can rely on when rebuilding. I am not totally discounting but let’s be real, it’s a crapshoot. You might hit one lotto ticket for 1k but doesn’t mean you are successful long term playing scratch offs..

There was not much at all available in the beginning of the U18 draft, but with more kids now playing their major midget season there are several real OHL prospects each year. Erie gets to pick who they like.
Gotta love the lottery, unless you’re an Icedogs fan

 

[NOA]

Game 1 - Martin had 2g/2a in a 4-1 win. Roobroeck had 1g.

Martin is peaking at the right time and stylistically, with his skating and mobility, he fits more into what Erie has valued historically in the first round 1.

 

[Section5Petes]

Roobroeck, Martin, Schaefer or whoever it is, Otters are going to be set up pretty well moving forward. Any idea who Otters are leaning towards?

 

[NOA]

Roobroeck, Martin, Schaefer or whoever it is, Otters are going to be set up pretty well moving forward. Any idea who Otters are leaning towards?

Don’t think anyone really knows yet what they will do and maybe the team still doesn’t know. Many posters have discussed above their thoughts on what the team might do. Ultimately we could see Erie taking Roobroeck, Martin, Schaefer for different reasons

 

[Wolf on a Wire]

Don’t think anyone really knows yet what they will do and maybe the team still doesn’t know. Many posters have discussed above their thoughts on what the team might do. Ultimately we could see Erie taking Roobroeck, Martin, Schaefer for different reasons

Having experienced what an Elite DMan like Drysdale can do to help a team win, I say Erie takes Schaefer #1…IMO

 

[7D442]

It’s a tough call to make

 

[NOA]

Having experienced what an Elite DMan like Drysdale can do to help a team win, I say Erie takes Schaefer #1…IMO

Erie needs help everywhere though. They have been bottom of the league for years now because they lack coaching and elite talent. So really what they should do is take the BPA, regardless of position. Even with Drysdale, no issues were solved and the team won/loss the same amount of games

 

[dirty12]

Having experienced what an Elite DMan like Drysdale can do to help a team win, I say Erie takes Schaefer #1…IMO

Sova & Davieault should be all offence from D Erie requires for 2-3 years. I’d want a 3-yr centre for Spence that could be top six in year 2. Then draft D that can be relied on to defend, clear the crease, and make forwards think three times before carrying the puck over middle.

 

[NOA]

Sova & Davieault should be all offence from D Erie requires for 2-3 years. I’d want a 3-yr centre for Spence that could be top six in year 2. Then draft D that can be relied on to defend, clear the crease, and make forwards think three times before carrying the puck over middle.

I tend to agree. They need a stud forward to pair with Spence if they want to make any sort of run at anything in the near future and that could start in 2024-25 with whoever this is, plus Terrance, plus Spence. I think that’s more important than a top defensemen. Not to mention, they have the import draft, when you are going to likely be drafting a 2006. That’s where I think it makes more sense to go defenseman. But again, I think Erie needs to take the guy they think is the best overall prospect. If that’s Schaefer, then you have to take him. If you think that’s someone else, then you take that player

 

[Mata]

Sova & Davieault should be all offence from D Erie requires for 2-3 years. I’d want a 3-yr centre for Spence that could be top six in year 2. Then draft D that can be relied on to defend, clear the crease, and make forwards think three times before carrying the puck over middle.

I would agree we have our 2 people to move the puck, or at least it appears that way.

Roobroeck seems like he would be another Alfano, not a bad thing, but unless his skating improves he could be limited in production. I do like that he is a pure goal scorer. We would also get him for 3 seasons minimum.

Martin on the other hand seems to have elite skating which given our current roster may allow him to be a bigger threat over time.

Schaefer, while possibly being a super elite defenseman possibly on the level or.above Drysdale, doesn't recoup a big man in Kulakov and Morton.

I would be comfortable with taking a defenseman, but feel like the import draft could allow for a larger body defender jumping in and making a difference immediately (assuming they report), whereas a puck moving defenseman isn't that much of a need. If we keep Johnston, he has decent ability to move the puck as well.

 

[Mata]

Sounds like we will have an announcement for the first pick pef Mark, 5 PM next Thursday.

 

[NOA]

Sounds like we will have an announcement for the first pick pef Mark, 5 PM next Thursday.

I believe this is always the case, as in the team with the 1st pick announces the day before the draft begins. Erie did the same with OReilly in 2007 and McDavid in 2012.

 

[NOA]

For what it’s worth, some posters are indicating Erie will select Schaefer. Also Schaefer did start following Erie on Instagram recently. So take that info how you want to but this is 2023, this is how we need to get Otters news now haha

I can’t say I’m surprised and it feels it’s trended this way since the OHL Cup. Erie can’t afford to screw this pick up and unfortunately there isn’t a consensus guy. While Roobroeck had a great year, he’s tailed off recently and that’s an eyebrow raiser. He also doesn’t have the best mobility which I think Erie values highly in the first round - skating ability - which Schaefer does have. You add in the fact that we just hired a defensive coach and you have to imagine he’s all about being a more defensive team and taking the steady defensive player. That said, it would bother me if that were true, like that’s why we are taking Schaefer. I hope it’s just they take Schaefer because they think he’s the BPA and not because of SB…

Though Erie has 7 defensemen signed
(Sova, Johnston, Alboim, Sauder, Holomego, Henry, and Daviault), it’s not unreasonable to want to upgrade 1 of those spots with Schaefer. Other than Sova, it’s just a bunch of guys. And following year, they lose Johnston for sure and could lose Sova if he had a breakout year/went pro. Though not likely, Sova has the skill and size where that is still a future risk. And if it happens, you are really vulnerable on defnese in 2024-25.

I’m definitely offense > defense and it’s hard to stomach taking a defensemen at 1st overall but I think this is a draft board where it’s difficult to argue when there isn’t a consensus top guy but Schaefer appears to be the consensus top defensmen. Moore/Martin/Roobroeck all argued as the top forward but Moore went US route so that hurts the options. If they don’t like Roobroecks style or game and they think Martin has a lower floor and/or ceiling, I can understand taking Schaefer. Obviously I’m still holding onto the import draft as an avenue for them to add an immediate impact forward…

 

[dirty12]

Schaefer makes a lot of sense if an OA season for Sova is not in Erie’s plans. Butler’s teams do use a stretch pass in transition a lot. I’d still expect Erie to draft a BIG D in round 2 or the first pick in round 4.
Which ‘04 born are likely OAs; Fimis, Alfano, …McDonald?

 

[NOA]

Schaefer makes a lot of sense if an OA season for Sova is not in Erie’s plans. Butler’s teams do use a stretch pass in transition a lot. I’d still expect Erie to draft a BIG D in round 2 or the first pick in round 4.

It’s not that I don’t think Sova would be in their plans but he was invited to an NHL camp last year and supposedly did well. He has great skating ability and some offensive instincts. He’s the type of guy that could explode and get signed next offseason and then you are left scrambling

If Erie is taking Schaefer 1st, I can almost guarantee they go forward with their 2nd round pick. They have not taken 2 defensemen with their first 2 picks since 2000 (Campoli/Lee). Edwards, Messier, Artichuk, Smith, and McDonald are all just filler depth pieces. They still need to increase their talent upfront, even if they go forward in the import.

I have Erie with a 2nd, 4th, 4th, 5th round picks. No 3rd and no 6th. I could be wrong and the main thread / the GensUpdates dude has it differently. But I have been tracking for about 4 years now and was spot on last year when the others were way off. Hope it’s accurate.. we need at least one 2nd . The 2nd I have is Erie’s own 2nd which would be 23rd overall

 

[dirty12]

It’s not that I don’t think Sova would be in their plans but he was invited to an NHL camp last year and supposedly did well. He has great skating ability and some offensive instincts. He’s the type of guy that could explode and get signed next offseason and then you are left scrambling

If Erie is taking Schaefer 1st, I can almost guarantee they go forward with their 2nd round pick. They have not taken 2 defensemen with their first 2 picks since 2000 (Campoli/Lee). Edwards, Messier, Artichuk, Smith, and McDonald are all just filler depth pieces. They still need to increase their talent upfront, even if they go forward in the import.

I have Erie with a 2nd, 4th, 4th, 5th round picks. No 3rd and no 6th. I could be wrong and the main thread / the GensUpdates dude has it differently. But I have been tracking for about 4 years now and was spot on last year when the others were way off. Hope it’s accurate.. we need at least one 2nd . The 2nd I have is Erie’s own 2nd which would be 23rd overall

Pretty sure you’ve got the 2, 4, 4(Sarnia), 5 right; Dude has it that way too.

 

[NOA]

Pretty sure you’ve got the 2, 4, 4, 5 right; Dude has it that way too.

I think he adjusted, or someone mentioned it because I was outspoken about it previously. I just remember last year at this time, they were off last year and this 2023 year. Either way, I’m 95% confident on it. Conditionals the only weird thing to account for

 

[Mata]

Schaefer makes a lot of sense if an OA season for Sova is not in Erie’s plans. Butler’s teams do use a stretch pass in transition a lot. I’d still expect Erie to draft a BIG D in round 2 or the first pick in round 4.
Which ‘04 born are likely OAs; Fimis, Alfano, …McDonald?

Current 04's: Smith, Alfano, McDonald, Fimis, Sova, Lalonde, Downey and (Lowe?).

If everyone above is in consideration:
Alfano, Sova, Fimis as it stands currently.

If we project Sova to be gone:
Alfano, Fimis, and I might say Lalonde/Downey even though I'd hate to keep a goalie as an OA.

 

[NOA]

Current 04's: Smith, Alfano, McDonald, Fimis, Sova, Lalonde, Downey and (Lowe?).

If everyone above is in consideration:
Alfano, Sova, Fimis as it stands currently.

If we project Sova to be gone:
Alfano, Fimis, and I might say Lalonde/Downey even though I'd hate to keep a goalie as an OA.

Agree. The order is probably, as of now,
Sova, Fimis, Alfano, Lalonde, Smith/McDonald.

Erie *could* be in a decent spot for 2024-25 if they have Sova/Fimis/Alfano here and they land a top import

Spence (3rd yr) / Terrance (4th) / Import
Molnar (4th) / Fimis (OA) / Alfano (OA)

Sova (OA) / Schaefer (2nd)
Henry/Holomego (3rd)

Gibbons (3rd)

Now the trick is, and trust me when I say it’s a fancy trick, is the team actually wins some games this year. Getting to 33-35 wins and playing some playoff games is so crucial for the culture it cannot be understated. BUT Erie also needs to recoup some assets for 2025, which is bare thanks to the Fimis trade, and recoup assets so they can properly make a run one year. In an ideal world, Terrance, Spence, Molnar, and an unknown import take off next year. There is some good to great ceiling there and Erie needs things to start clicking and showing up in the win column/stat sheet

If Gilmartin returns, I think Erie should trade them. Will they? Probably not. But they should consider it because it might allow them to retain conditionals from London trade and/or recoup a few assets. He probably doesn’t have much value though. Maybe they look to flip someone like Fimis at the deadline? Idk but I do think they need to sell a little to try to get 2/3 high picks back especially if the young kids start showing the star potential

Terrance (3rd) / Spence (2nd) / Import
Bressette (OA) / Fimis (4th) / Molnar (3rd)
Alfano (4th) / McDonald (4th) / Saganiuk (OA)

That’s not a bad forward group and I think allows you to move on from Gilmartin, save yourself those conditional picks in the original trade OR flip someone like Alfano/Fimis. Fimis still has more upside and is a true center so I doubt he’s not here but considering Terrance/Molnar might be NHL picks by the summer, Terrance coming off a 30 goal season, Spence is a projected 1st round NHL pick at this stage, Fimis/Saganiuk/Bressette all have limitations but also some areas of top skill that made them top OHL prospects. Plus a 1st overall import pick. Combined with 2 goalies you spent high picks on, one who signed a FA NHL deal, and some solid options on the backend - if you can’t be a middle of the pack team then something is so inherently flawed with the development here. Seriously. Time to start winning some damn games…