Erie Otters 2022-23 Off-Season Thread (Part 2)

[ohloutsider]

2nd, Edmonton had the worst record in the CHL.

It doesn't go that way. Rotates through the leagues and this year OHL picks first.

 

[Roadhog]

It doesn't go that way. Rotates through the leagues and this year OHL picks first.

OK, I can see how that makes sense.

 

[OttersFan]

Just saw Dave Brown interviewed on the CW. When talking about next year's team he mentioned Molnar.

Molnar told a few season ticket holders that he was disappointed and sorry for his performance this year. He said when he’s back next year, he will be better.

 

[Mata]

Molnar told a few season ticket holders that he was disappointed and sorry for his performance this year. He said when he’s back next year, he will be better.

I don't think he played poorly, persey. I don't think he had the time to adjust to the OHL game. If he comes back he will do well. Very creative player for sure.

 

[Guy In Burlington]

This may be unfair, because the whole team was off that night, but the way Molnar played during the 3-0 loss in Guelph last weekend made me wonder if he’d checked out. I was there and he was awful. Soft, scared, turned it over almost every time he had it. If he’s back, I hope he comes back ready to play harder.

 

[Mata]

This may be unfair, because the whole team was off that night, but the way Molnar played during the 3-0 loss in Guelph last weekend made me wonder if he’d checked out. I was there and he was awful. Soft, scared, turned it over almost every time he had it. If he’s back, I hope he comes back ready to play harder.

He wasn't the only one who checked out...

The kids who play every shift like it is their last didn't quit, but there were some higher end players who just didn't seem to care for the better part the last 1/3 of the season. That to me is kind of sad and a big worry heading into next season.

Anyone can play well when things are going well, but those who quit when things aren't says a lot about their character.

 

[NOA]

He wasn't the only one who checked out...

The kids who play every shift like it is their last didn't quit, but there were some higher end players who just didn't seem to care for the better part the last 1/3 of the season. That to me is kind of sad and a big worry heading into next season.

Anyone can play well when things are going well, but those who quit when things aren't says a lot about their character.

I mostly agree but to be fair, these kids are mostly 16-19 years old and some of them have been in a losing situation for 2-3 years straight. That’s a recipe for a losing culture. I’m not excusing the effort or performance but I’m also just not blaming them when the coaches/GM put them in a tough spot. Especially when you hire a new coach and you don’t see immediate results, it’s natural to feel frustrated. I don’t know if many teams in this league would not check out. Hell, even NHL teams check out at this time of year. Every sport at every level sees this type of stuff. It’s natural. And I understand a counter agrument would be saying guys like Messier or Artichuk “never quit” and “gave it their all” down to the end of the year but let’s be real, some of them are playing for their jobs next year and with limited ice time/less skill, they don’t have a choice but to show up every shift because that’s the main reason they have a spot in the lineup right now. Doesn’t mean I want the entire team next year to be full of those players.

Culture is a big part of success and Erie has lost their way with it the last few years, between the losing and the shuffling of coaches. Hopefully SB has them believing more to start the year and then if they win a little, he can more easily hold people accountable and see where it goes from there.

 

[Guy In Burlington]

He wasn't the only one who checked out...

The kids who play every shift like it is their last didn't quit, but there were some higher end players who just didn't seem to care for the better part the last 1/3 of the season. That to me is kind of sad and a big worry heading into next season.

Anyone can play well when things are going well, but those who quit when things aren't says a lot about their character.

Sure, but this is a kid hoping to get drafted in June. You’d have thought he was an OA playing out the string. Again, just one game, and he’s 17, but it was definitely noticeable.

 

[NOA]

Sure, but this is a kid hoping to get drafted in June. You’d have thought he was an OA playing out the string. Again, just one game, and he’s 17, but it was definitely noticeable.

He’s also in a new country for the first time or first season in his career. Possible that external factors were at play as well.

I’ve seen it happen with other imports or rookies when even on winning teams. Sometimes we just have to remember these are kids. Now, if certain guys come back with the same effort or attitude to start next year - it becomes much more of an issue or red flag for me.

 

[NOA]

Not based on any insight but just a feeling based on connecting the dots. I think Schaefer is starting to make a lot of sense to Erie at #1. A couple of factors at play including SB being a defensive coach who will probably push that idea, this supposedly not being a deep defensive draft (and Erie, of course, has limited high picks thanks to DB asset management), there is not a consensus #1 right now but Schaefer might be a potential safer pick than some other guys, and the lack of confidence in the top forward prospects - namely Roobroeck disappointing in OHL cup/stock slipping and Moore being USNDT candidate

 

[ZinErie]

One advantage of having the first overall pick is you could get a commitment prior to making the pick. I'd like them to get Moore to commit.

 

[NOA]

One advantage of having the first overall pick is you could get a commitment prior to making the pick. I'd like them to get Moore to commit.

Same thoughts here, Zin. First step is figure out your draft board and who you are ranking 1. If that’s Moore for Erie, then go try to get him. Seems Moore, Schaefer, Roobroeck, Martin are all potential options for #1. Let’s just hope they do their due diligence across the board. Which I’m confident they will. But there is that added bonus of #1 overall in the import too, as opposed to #4 overall. So it’s still worth getting #1 pick this year even in a year where there isn’t a Misa/Wright type of guy

Btw, Erie has never picked 1 overall in import. Highest pick was #2, Jaroslav Janus. Not sure how much the import draft plays into the priority selection but given that they pick 1st overall for each, maybe there is a situation where for example they are after a top defender in the import - maybe that pushes them towards a forward in OHL draft. Or vice versa. Lots at play. They cannot afford to screw this up…

 

[Guy In Burlington]

One advantage of having the first overall pick is you could get a commitment prior to making the pick. I'd like them to get Moore to commit.

Moore played with Spence in 21-22, not sure if that changes anything re: Moore’s willingness to play in the OHL.

He’s also in a new country for the first time or first season in his career. Possible that external factors were at play as well.

I’ve seen it happen with other imports or rookies when even on winning teams. Sometimes we just have to remember these are kids. Now, if certain guys come back with the same effort or attitude to start next year - it becomes much more of an issue or red flag for me.

Absolutely that’s possible. I’m not dumping on the kid. Was just pointing out it seemed to be a rough intro to North American hockey.

 

[Mata]

One advantage of having the first overall pick is you could get a commitment prior to making the pick. I'd like them to get Moore to commit.

I would really hope they have a commitment before making the pick. Swinging for the fence on someone who could be going US College or national team route or even a Canadian player who refuses to report would be a very bad look for an organization struggling to get results since 2017.

 

[ZinErie]

I would really hope they have a commitment before making the pick. Swinging for the fence on someone who could be going US College or national team route or even a Canadian player who refuses to report would be a very bad look for an organization struggling to get results since 2017.

I didn't mean just a verbal commitment. You bring the player to Erie to meet the media and sign with the team the day before the draft.

 

[NOA]

I didn't mean just a verbal commitment. You bring the player to Erie to meet the media and sign with the team the day before the draft.

Yeah it would obviously have to be a strong verbal.
But you can read the room on this type of stuff. You bring him to Erie, you talk to him and his family, you have an alumni or two reach out to him, and then you get a vibe check from him.

Though verbal commits can easily change their mind and manipulate things, there really aren’t many if any guys doing that for 1st overall pick. There is no benefit to it. Hell, I don’t even think guys are doing it in any round of the draft. When kids go back on their “verbal” commit, it’s 99 percent a situation where they just change their mind. The lies or manipulation come into play when kids say they are going college or another route, then fall to the 5th round, only to go to their preferred team. So this wouldn’t be that and though Moore could change his mind, the gap between recruiting him, the draft, and signing him would be small. It’s not a 6-12 month process

The Spence connection is interesting. As is just the allure of going 1st overall. I’m not sure if Erie has the juice right now to pull him but if they like him, they better try their damn hardest to make it happen. If anything, I just want to see them get a player like that who has other options. It will reinforce a little faith in the org for me. But as mentioned before, there are a few 1st overall candiates. It’s not like Moore is the second coming of McDavid. So if he’s a hard no on your team, it’s easy for them to just look to another good option rather than forcing something that won’t work. I highly doubt they swing on Moore or anyone with 1st overall if the kid is on the fence. Because A) They have other good, similar quality options and B) They haven’t swung on a first round pick in how long? Ever? Historically they have never done that.

 

[OttersFan]

I didn't mean just a verbal commitment. You bring the player to Erie to meet the media and sign with the team the day before the draft.

By media you mean the lack of in Erie. Of course they’ll all come out of the woodwork during the signing, but barely cover them during the season. Even Mark Scheig only covers MAYBE 20 games all season at best.

 

[NOA]

By media you mean the lack of in Erie. Of course they’ll all come out of the woodwork during the signing, but barely cover them during the season. Even Mark Scheig only covers MAYBE 20 games all season at best.

It’s all about interest. Local media would do more if they had the clicks or enough interest to warrant it. Yes it’s frustrating but it’s business

 

[ZinErie]

With the 1st overall pick in both drafts I think the general consensus is D in one and F in other. But here's something to consider. Is there an elite European goaltender willing to come to the O? If so, they have to consider it.

 

[NOA]

Jk all. Haha Moore is now out the question. I think it ends up being Schaefer

 

[Mata]

Jk all. Haha Moore is now out the question. I think it ends up being Schaefer

Have to think we are down to 3 probable picks...

Roobroeck, Schaefer, or Martin unless somehow Mooney grows 5 - 7 inches and keeps his coordination/skillset intact because I don't see us drafting another Artichuk/Saganiuk player, especially at number 1.

The other major factor to all of this has to be the import situation. We likely have all options open as far as drafting for another forward or a defender, but if we have a very solid import defender that will report, I think our top pick goes offense. Conversely, if we have a high end offensive import likely to report I have to believe Schaefer is the favorite.

 

[NOA]

Have to think we are down to 3 probable picks...

Roobroeck, Schaefer, or Martin unless somehow Mooney grows 5 - 7 inches and keeps his coordination/skillset intact because I don't see us drafting another Artichuk/Saganiuk player, especially at number 1.

The other major factor to all of this has to be the import situation. We likely have all options open as far as drafting for another forward or a defender, but if we have a very solid import defender that will report, I think our top pick goes offense. Conversely, if we have a high end offensive import likely to report I have to believe Schaefer is the favorite.

It looks like Mooney is also on his way to USNDT and is no longer an option. Agree that it’s now between Schaefer, Roobroeck, Martin and that would be my order for betting odds. Schaefer the safest pick but as you said, import draft has to play at least a small role here. Roobroeck having a disappointing OHL cup makes this a much harder choice. When all else fails though, I think Erie leans on safe bet and that’s Schaefer. Not to mention he’s the consensus best defensemen in a draft that isn’t too top heavy with them. So that’s more than enough of a reason to take him given the draft board

 

[Mata]

It looks like Mooney is also on his way to USNDT and is no longer an option. Agree that it’s now between Schaefer, Roobroeck, Martin and that would be my order for betting odds. Schaefer the safest pick but as you said, import draft has to play at least a small role here. Roobroeck having a disappointing OHL cup makes this a much harder choice. When all else fails though, I think Erie leans on safe bet and that’s Schaefer. Not to mention he’s the consensus best defensemen in a draft that isn’t too top heavy with them. So that’s more than enough of a reason to take him given the draft board

I'm no scout by any means, but I'm not entirely sold on the OHL cup as a final determination on draft position, should it be taken into consideration, yes, but let's look at what Roobroeck has done:

Roobroeck is a 2.66 ppg player this season and is the true definition of a sniper having more goals than assists in each of his last 2 seasons. I don't know how much weight I would put one bad tournament. Additionally, he did apply for, and was denied ES last season which says something to his skill level to even be considered. He may have even been granted it had he been an early calendar birthday, but that's pure speculation and honestly at this point doesn't matter really.

We have playmakers in Molnar, Fimis, Spence, Saganiuk, and even Bressette. Outside of Terrance, Alfano may have been our next biggest threat to score goals. If his skating is there, his size most definitely is, and he has proven he can score goals at the junior level. That being said, overall he may still be the best overall in the draft and he's probably not going to be out of consideration until he either refuses to report OR we select someone else on draft day.

Brady Martin - Solid player with noticeable increases in production with a very solid OHL Cup. Does that catapult him ahead of Roobroeck for the top offensive threat, I don't necessarily think so, but the scouts are doing what they do best, creating talking points and hyping up their sport. He appears to be a more rounded forward in that he isn't selfish...he scores and distributes rather equally and with consistency but we have plenty of them, so what makes him elite/special to make him the number 1 pick with players not currently on the roster?

Matthew Schaefer - I agree he is the safest pick out of the lot. Especially considering we lose our two big men on the back line in Kulakov and Morton given Stan's M.O of liking big guys in the back it presents a unique opportunity to maybe help solidy our back line via the draft. This will be the year Sova has to hold it down, Daviault needs to mature and quickly, if Johnston returns he will provide stability as well, but not overly amazing as an OA. Our back line success will largely be determined in how much Albloim and Sauder have matured (or not), and whether or not Holomego and Henry can jump into 3rd line pairings and be effective. I have more faith in Henry with the limited action we saw.

If I were the GM picking and assuming all 3 were yes to report I have it ranked:

Roobroeck >= Schaefer > Martin

 

[NOA]

For the record, I would rather we take Roobroeck because I’ve always been about taking the forward over the defensemen in round 1, especially in early picks, unless the defensemen is so overwhelmingly the best player or that special. But I still think there are hurdles with taking Roobroeck:

• He had a poor OHL Cup. While not the only factor, it is an ingredient to consider and one I’m sure Erie looks closely at. It holds weight because it’s the best versus the best. I can’t speak to all the minor leagues because I don’t live in Canada or scout but generally the GTHL is considered the best or deepest just because of population alone. Yes, Roobroeck lit it up during the year but there has to be some questions now about the competition he faced and whether some of the domination was due to his size. No question his size is still a good thing but it can also be difficult to evaluate when going to the next level. Did he put up a lot of points because he was just physically bigger than the rest? Based on what I read, he really disappointed at the OHL Cup, to the point of looking invisible for some people. That’s a red flag. It could be injury related, it could just be the pressure or mental fatigue catching up, or it could be other things. But for a 1st overall pick, that’s at least a question mark. I’m also not overally impressed with his mobility in the limited videos I have seen which has been a knock by some that regularly do watch him.
• Do we even know if Roobroeck will commit? While there are not strong indicators at this point saying he won’t, we have to consider that he told Niagara no and his brother players for Oshawa, who picks 6th.
• Erie now has a defensive first coach/system. If SB has any say, it’s not hard to think he pushes for a defensemen. Doesn’t mean he will but if Knoblauch were here for instance, I would feel better about the odds of going forward.
• The gap between Schaefer and the next best defenseman appears wide and certainly appears wider than the gap between Roobroeck and the next best forward

Considering Erie can’t fudge this, it seems logical to take a “safer” bet. Doesn’t mean it will work out or I even want it to be Schaefer but I’m trying to think like the team might be thinking here. But that all said, the team is going to meet with and interview these players. Who the heck knows what comes out of those conversations. I would hope Erie looks strongly at 3-4 options and has input from numerous people before making the decision. One thing for Roobroeck is he’s a late bday, similar to Spence. We would get him 3 years guaranteed before he even enters the NHL draft.

 

[OttersFan]

I have a feeling they pick a forward in the OHL draft and take a defenseman in the U18, and import draft. If they can find a goalie, you look at that option too.