Luigi Lemieux
Registered User
- Sep 26, 2003
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One player is getting better over time, the other is getting worse
Elias Pettersson vs Tim Stützle
- Thread starter Coffee
- Start date
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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It’s fine comparing amongst teammates, which is what I outlined. That shows with Tim being first among his teammates and Petey 16th compared to his.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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yes one is 1st relative to teammates,
one is 16th relative to teammates.
I’m not comparing the +8 vs -4, I’m comparing the relatives.
It’s not even close, who is better defensively.
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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Lmao, thanks for the satire, and thinking Petey is better defensively, classic nucks fan. Needed a good laugh, thanks.
Thanks for showing you’re clueless because you think being on the ice for goals for involves defense.
Guess Tyler Myers is better defensively than Jake Sanderson too by your plus minute relative to team nonsense
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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Tim at 5 on 5
Better xGA/60 and xGF/60
Better GA/60 and GF/60
Better HDCA/60 and HDCF/60
Better SA/60 and SF/60
Sanderson is not playing as well this year, so no argument.
Now you’re actually using real stats. Like I said in the initial post to you, Stutzle’s numbers are good this year and better than Pettersson’s. Though it’s only 30 games and they’ve never been at this level before so we’ll see how then end up.
It doesn’t mean using plus minus means anything, because Pettersson’s defensive numbers are also good, but his offensive ones aren’t, and he’s been in for empty net situations, which have combined to tank his plus minus
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Yea “let’s see how they end up” totally means I think he can’t keep it up at all.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
I predict this narrative will start changing
Daily Faceoff’s 2024-25 first quarter NHL Award winners
Kaprizov, Makar and Hellebuyck get the most love from our seven-voter panel.
www.dailyfaceoff.com
Selke Trophy: Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)
Finalists: Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)Other Votes: Jordan Staal, Anthony Cirelli, Mitch Marner, Alex Tuch, Adam Lowry, Tim Stutzle, Leon Draisaitl, Phillip Danault, Claude Giroux, Jack Hughes, Logan O’Connor
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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Also Chabot for Norris, under “other votes”.I predict this narrative will start changing
Daily Faceoff’s 2024-25 first quarter NHL Award winners
Kaprizov, Makar and Hellebuyck get the most love from our seven-voter panel.
Selke Trophy: Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)
Finalists: Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Other Votes: Jordan Staal, Anthony Cirelli, Mitch Marner, Alex Tuch, Adam Lowry, Tim Stutzle, Leon Draisaitl, Phillip Danault, Claude Giroux, Jack Hughes, Logan O’Connor
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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It was brought up in reference against their OWN teammates lol.
One player ranked 16th against his OWN forwards on the team. (Not the best)
One player ranked first against his OWN forwards on the team.
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Not saying that it is something I really look for but what the poster is talking about is basically GF%rel (Goals for percentage relative to team’s GF% with player not on-ice). It doesn't reveal a lot on defensive play but it's an advanced metric nonetheless (that looks at both sides of the puck)
relGF% 5v5 has some value, but the problem with plus minus is it includes short handed goals for and against, empty net situations, and 3 on 3. At 5v5, among forwards who’ve played significant games for the team, Pettersson is 4th in SA/60, 3rd in GA/60, 4th in xGA/60, and 5th in SF%, 5th in xGF% but only tied for 8th in GF% because the team hasn’t scored enough with him on the ice, which also shows there’s a lot of variance when only looking at goals over a 30ish game sample.
And then even relative numbers don’t take into account teammate and competition quality. For instance, Miller gets a ton more ice time with Hughes than Pettersson, which significantly affects Pettersson’s numbers since the rest of the Canucks D can’t move the puck. 57% of Miller’s ice time comes with Hughes on the ice, whereas only 43% of Pettersson’s 5v5 ice time comes with Hughes on the ice. He also typically plays the hardest minutes on the team with over 39% of his ice time coming against elite competition.
That’s why Pettersson’s GAR numbers and RAPM numbers that take teammates and completion into account are strong defensively.
It’s his offense that’s been bad this year.
Now, Stutzle’s numbers are even stronger this year while also scoring at a high rate. He’s made strides in his overall game and he’s clearly been much better this year. I don’t think the poster’s comment that by the end of the year Pettersson’s going to be better offensively and defensively and everyone’s going to hide is a likely outcome at this point. Stutzle’s on pace for just under 100 points this year and should probably beat his 90 from a couple years ago. Pettersson meanwhile hasn’t been himself for a long while now and whether it’s his apparent knee injury or issues with the team, we have no idea when and if he’s going to flip a switch. Still, focusing on plus minus, even against your own teammates, is a horrible way to judge players, especially if you’re just trying to judge defense.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Advanced metrics are not perfect and always need to be looked at within context and also with other metrics simultaneously. Using relGF% is not going to be enough if you're only looking at that
It's great if a player has a low xGA/60 but also a low GA/60, however there's a lot of other factors that plays into it, like goaltending, QoC, QoT, etc.
Even in a down season, EP is still a great player but he is nowhere near worth his AAV this season while Stutzle is worth quite more than his.
Aashir Mallik
Backcheck, Forecheck, Paycheque
- Apr 19, 2019
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Their counting stats are actually very similar
This year and last year:
EP: 115GP, 42G, 73A, 115P (82 point pace)
TS: 108GP, 29G, 80A, 109P (83 point pace)
Last 3 years:
EP: 195GP, 81G, 136A, 217P (91 point pace)
TS: 186GP, 68G, 131A, 199P (88 point pace)
EP has one good year, one meh year (based on how it finished) and one bad year (this one)
TS has two good years, and one bad year
Contracts + trend of play would probably have most people voting stutzle, but if you switch some years around I think it’d be a bit different, so could be a bit of (deserved) recency bias at play.
This year and last year:
EP: 115GP, 42G, 73A, 115P (82 point pace)
TS: 108GP, 29G, 80A, 109P (83 point pace)
Last 3 years:
EP: 195GP, 81G, 136A, 217P (91 point pace)
TS: 186GP, 68G, 131A, 199P (88 point pace)
EP has one good year, one meh year (based on how it finished) and one bad year (this one)
TS has two good years, and one bad year
Contracts + trend of play would probably have most people voting stutzle, but if you switch some years around I think it’d be a bit different, so could be a bit of (deserved) recency bias at play.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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Not to mention Tim is 3+ years younger.
If you compare what they did at respective ages, it’s an even bigger gap in Stūtzle’s favour.
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
Sometimes you have to look at the date of when the poll was made.
- Oct 26, 2019
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Right now in a vacuum you'd have to say Stutzle, but for the majority of the comparison it was Pettersson. Petey has shown a higher ceiling but is a season removed from playing at that level. He's been good by the eye test, especially defensively but he has not done enough offensively.
When I voted this was Petey but if I voted now it's obviously Stutzle. Could easily switch back again at some point.
When I voted this was Petey but if I voted now it's obviously Stutzle. Could easily switch back again at some point.
