Elias Pettersson vs Tim Stützle

[Luigi Lemieux]

Classic HF all these posters will go back into their hiding hole when pettersson ends the season with more points than stutzle while also being better defensively.

One player is getting better over time, the other is getting worse

 

[Golden_Jet]

+/- is not great but Stutzle’s made big strides in his all around game. His defensive reads and support have been good for sometime now but his puck management has always caused problems when it comes to chances against. This season it looks like he has bought into the idea that less is more and it’s really showing up in his defensive metrics.

It’s fine comparing amongst teammates, which is what I outlined. That shows with Tim being first among his teammates and Petey 16th compared to his.

 

[Regal]

It’s fine comparing amongst teammates, which is what I outlined. That shows with Tim being first among his teammates and Petey 16th compared to his.

No it’s not

 

[Golden_Jet]

Are you really using plus minus to determine defense ?

yes one is 1st relative to teammates,
one is 16th relative to teammates.
I’m not comparing the +8 vs -4, I’m comparing the relatives.

It’s not even close, who is better defensively.

 

[Regal]

yes one is 1st relative to teammates,
one is 16th relative to teammates.
I’m not comparing the +8 vs -4, I’m comparing the relatives.

It’s not even close, who is better defensively.

That’s embarrassing

 

[Golden_Jet]

That’s embarrassing

Lmao, thanks for the satire, and thinking Petey is better defensively, classic nucks fan. Needed a good laugh, thanks.

 

[Regal]

Lmao, thanks for the satire, and thinking Petey is better defensively, classic nucks fan.

Thanks for showing you’re clueless because you think being on the ice for goals for involves defense.

Guess Tyler Myers is better defensively than Jake Sanderson too by your plus minute relative to team nonsense

 

[Golden_Jet]

Thanks for showing you’re clueless because you think being on the ice for goals for involves defense.

Guess Tyler Myers is better defensively than Jake Sanderson too by your plus minute relative to team nonsense

Tim at 5 on 5

Better xGA/60 and xGF/60
Better GA/60 and GF/60
Better HDCA/60 and HDCF/60
Better SA/60 and SF/60

Sanderson is not playing as well this year, so no argument.

 

[Regal]

Tim at 5 on 5

Better xGA/60 and xGF/60
Better GA/60 and GF/60
Better HDCA/60 and HDCF/60
Better SA/60 and SF/60

Sanderson is not playing as well this year, so no argument.

Now you’re actually using real stats. Like I said in the initial post to you, Stutzle’s numbers are good this year and better than Pettersson’s. Though it’s only 30 games and they’ve never been at this level before so we’ll see how then end up.

It doesn’t mean using plus minus means anything, because Pettersson’s defensive numbers are also good, but his offensive ones aren’t, and he’s been in for empty net situations, which have combined to tank his plus minus

 

[Sens9292]

Now you’re actually using real stats. Like I said in the initial post to you, Stutzle’s numbers are good this year and better than Pettersson’s. Though it’s only 30 games and they’ve never been at this level before so we’ll see how then end up.

It doesn’t mean using plus minus means anything, because Pettersson’s defensive numbers are also good, but his offensive ones aren’t, and he’s been in for empty net situations, which have combined to tank his plus minus

It’s unheard of for a 20-21 year old to continue improving on raw skills.

 

[Regal]

It’s unheard of for a 20-21 year old to continue improving on raw skills.

Yea “let’s see how they end up” totally means I think he can’t keep it up at all.

 

[Xspyrit]

Classic HF all these posters will go back into their hiding hole when pettersson ends the season with more points than stutzle while also being better defensively.

I predict this narrative will start changing

Daily Faceoff’s 2024-25 first quarter NHL Award winners

Kaprizov, Makar and Hellebuyck get the most love from our seven-voter panel.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Selke Trophy: Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)​

Finalists: Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Other Votes: Jordan Staal, Anthony Cirelli, Mitch Marner, Alex Tuch, Adam Lowry, Tim Stutzle, Leon Draisaitl, Phillip Danault, Claude Giroux, Jack Hughes, Logan O’Connor

 

[Golden_Jet]

I predict this narrative will start changing

Daily Faceoff’s 2024-25 first quarter NHL Award winners

Kaprizov, Makar and Hellebuyck get the most love from our seven-voter panel.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Selke Trophy: Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers)​

Finalists: Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers)
Other Votes: Jordan Staal, Anthony Cirelli, Mitch Marner, Alex Tuch, Adam Lowry, Tim Stutzle, Leon Draisaitl, Phillip Danault, Claude Giroux, Jack Hughes, Logan O’Connor

Also Chabot for Norris, under “other votes”.

 

[Breakers]

Dude brings up plus minus for defensive ability

LOLOLOLOL

 

[Golden_Jet]

Dude brings up plus minus for defensive ability

LOLOLOLOL

It was brought up in reference against their OWN teammates lol.

One player ranked 16th against his OWN forwards on the team. (Not the best)

One player ranked first against his OWN forwards on the team.

 

[Breakers]

It was brought up in reference against their OWN teammates lol.

One player ranked 16th against his OWN forwards on the team. (Not the best)

One player ranked first against his OWN forwards on the team.

You just proved my point

LoLOL

 

[Xspyrit]

You just proved my point

LoLOL

Not saying that it is something I really look for but what the poster is talking about is basically GF%rel (Goals for percentage relative to team’s GF% with player not on-ice). It doesn't reveal a lot on defensive play but it's an advanced metric nonetheless (that looks at both sides of the puck)

 

[Regal]

Not saying that it is something I really look for but what the poster is talking about is basically GF%rel (Goals for percentage relative to team’s GF% with player not on-ice). It doesn't reveal a lot on defensive play but it's an advanced metric nonetheless (that looks at both sides of the puck)

relGF% 5v5 has some value, but the problem with plus minus is it includes short handed goals for and against, empty net situations, and 3 on 3. At 5v5, among forwards who’ve played significant games for the team, Pettersson is 4th in SA/60, 3rd in GA/60, 4th in xGA/60, and 5th in SF%, 5th in xGF% but only tied for 8th in GF% because the team hasn’t scored enough with him on the ice, which also shows there’s a lot of variance when only looking at goals over a 30ish game sample.

And then even relative numbers don’t take into account teammate and competition quality. For instance, Miller gets a ton more ice time with Hughes than Pettersson, which significantly affects Pettersson’s numbers since the rest of the Canucks D can’t move the puck. 57% of Miller’s ice time comes with Hughes on the ice, whereas only 43% of Pettersson’s 5v5 ice time comes with Hughes on the ice. He also typically plays the hardest minutes on the team with over 39% of his ice time coming against elite competition.

That’s why Pettersson’s GAR numbers and RAPM numbers that take teammates and completion into account are strong defensively.

It’s his offense that’s been bad this year.

Now, Stutzle’s numbers are even stronger this year while also scoring at a high rate. He’s made strides in his overall game and he’s clearly been much better this year. I don’t think the poster’s comment that by the end of the year Pettersson’s going to be better offensively and defensively and everyone’s going to hide is a likely outcome at this point. Stutzle’s on pace for just under 100 points this year and should probably beat his 90 from a couple years ago. Pettersson meanwhile hasn’t been himself for a long while now and whether it’s his apparent knee injury or issues with the team, we have no idea when and if he’s going to flip a switch. Still, focusing on plus minus, even against your own teammates, is a horrible way to judge players, especially if you’re just trying to judge defense.

 

[Xspyrit]

relGF% 5v5 has some value, but the problem with plus minus is it includes short handed goals for and against, empty net situations, and 3 on 3. At 5v5, among forwards who’ve played significant games for the team, Pettersson is 4th in SA/60, 3rd in GA/60, 4th in xGA/60, and 5th in SF%, 5th in xGF% but only tied for 8th in GF% because the team hasn’t scored enough with him on the ice, which also shows there’s a lot of variance when only looking at goals over a 30ish game sample.

And then even relative numbers don’t take into account teammate and competition quality. For instance, Miller gets a ton more ice time with Hughes than Pettersson, which significantly affects Pettersson’s numbers since the rest of the Canucks D can’t move the puck. 57% of Miller’s ice time comes with Hughes on the ice, whereas only 43% of Pettersson’s 5v5 ice time comes with Hughes on the ice. He also typically plays the hardest minutes on the team with over 39% of his ice time coming against elite competition.

That’s why Pettersson’s GAR numbers and RAPM numbers that take teammates and completion into account are strong defensively.


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It’s his offense that’s been bad this year.

Now, Stutzle’s numbers are even stronger this year while also scoring at a high rate. He’s made strides in his overall game and he’s clearly been much better this year. I don’t think the poster’s comment that by the end of the year Pettersson’s going to be better offensively and defensively and everyone’s going to hide is a likely outcome at this point. Stutzle’s on pace for just under 100 points this year and should probably beat his 90 from a couple years ago. Pettersson meanwhile hasn’t been himself for a long while now and whether it’s his apparent knee injury or issues with the team, we have no idea when and if he’s going to flip a switch. Still, focusing on plus minus, even against your own teammates, is a horrible way to judge players, especially if you’re just trying to judge defense.

Advanced metrics are not perfect and always need to be looked at within context and also with other metrics simultaneously. Using relGF% is not going to be enough if you're only looking at that

It's great if a player has a low xGA/60 but also a low GA/60, however there's a lot of other factors that plays into it, like goaltending, QoC, QoT, etc.

Even in a down season, EP is still a great player but he is nowhere near worth his AAV this season while Stutzle is worth quite more than his.