Player Discussion: Ehlers
- Thread starter Hunter368
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Which I have pointed out in the past, but, opportunity doesn’t necessarily mean results. He would have had more points and better results. No one is arguing with that. I’m arguing with the assumption he’s have better results than Connor or that he’d get paid more than Connor. Opportunities don’t always equal results. Same with injuries you could argue if he stayed healthier he’d have 20 more points, which is a stretch. But, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say he’d have more points. That’s why I’m opposed to ppg it’s not what you could have done, it’s what you do.
Huffer
Registered User
- Jul 16, 2010
- 17,097
- 7,660
With the cap taking some big jumps, it will be interesting to see who around the league signs first and sort of sets the market.
With the cap also projected to rise pretty significantly over a few years, I wonder how Agents and GMs will use that for valuations. IOW, if they are projecting 95.5 next year, 104 in 2026/2027, and 113.5 in 2027/2028, will an agent try and use a higher rate in the future against the cap hit %? Will they look to use a blend?
IOW, Chevy could say, in his last contract Ehlers was 6.8% of the cap. We're prepared to go to 8% (just using this as an example) based on 95.5 which would be 7.64.
And the agent is likely to say, no bloody way we're using a 95.5 cap valuation. We'll agree to the 8%, but on a 105M cap which would be 8.4.
For reference Scheifele just recently signed at a cap % of 9.7, so there's no way Ehlers is going to get that %. IMO, I think 8 to 8.5% is the max. It just depends on what cap $ they use. 8.5*95.5 = 8.12. 8.5*113.5 = 9.65.
I know people like to look at the actual salary number and say a player like Ehlers shouldn't make more $ than Scheifele. And I agree that he's not as valuable and wouldn't get the same if they signed at the same time. But when time moves on, and the cap jumps this much, I don't think there is a lot you can do as I think agents will look to the cap % more than the absolute $ number.
With the cap also projected to rise pretty significantly over a few years, I wonder how Agents and GMs will use that for valuations. IOW, if they are projecting 95.5 next year, 104 in 2026/2027, and 113.5 in 2027/2028, will an agent try and use a higher rate in the future against the cap hit %? Will they look to use a blend?
IOW, Chevy could say, in his last contract Ehlers was 6.8% of the cap. We're prepared to go to 8% (just using this as an example) based on 95.5 which would be 7.64.
And the agent is likely to say, no bloody way we're using a 95.5 cap valuation. We'll agree to the 8%, but on a 105M cap which would be 8.4.
For reference Scheifele just recently signed at a cap % of 9.7, so there's no way Ehlers is going to get that %. IMO, I think 8 to 8.5% is the max. It just depends on what cap $ they use. 8.5*95.5 = 8.12. 8.5*113.5 = 9.65.
I know people like to look at the actual salary number and say a player like Ehlers shouldn't make more $ than Scheifele. And I agree that he's not as valuable and wouldn't get the same if they signed at the same time. But when time moves on, and the cap jumps this much, I don't think there is a lot you can do as I think agents will look to the cap % more than the absolute $ number.
here's the lowest TOI/GP of 1PPG players in a season (min 40. gp, since 2005)
That’s too late for a UFA. He can’t be on the market all summer. He’ll be gone by July 1st. We’ll need to sign him before free agency starts.
Puckatron 3000
Glitchy Prototype
It may work in Chevy's favor that the Jets are so good this year. Players are of course attracted and more likely to sign with successful teams. Although if we win the SC, everyone on the team's price goes up, so that could be a downside. But if that happens, I'll be too busy partying to care.
PhilJets
Winnipeg is Good
I wouldn't be surprised if Chevy announces a Ehlers signing in the 2 week break because now Chevy knows what kind of money he is working with. February 7th is our last game until February 22nd , that just sucks if you ask me. 
I really hope him not having a contract plays out like Scheif and Helle, and not that he really does want to leave regardless of money.
If we just can’t afford him, then so be it. But with the cap going up I’d hope that’s not an issue.
If we just can’t afford him, then so be it. But with the cap going up I’d hope that’s not an issue.
I wouldn’t care until I start sobering up by mid October.
I get the feeling Nik is interested in a new team - and I think it's for the best for both sides.
I don't think his next contract will be a good value, and I think we have a couple players primed to work their way into his spot.
I love Nik and I hope I'm wrong but I really think he'll be an own rental.
I don't think his next contract will be a good value, and I think we have a couple players primed to work their way into his spot.
I love Nik and I hope I'm wrong but I really think he'll be an own rental.
I think the fact we are playing so well might help Ehlers sign but if he doesn't want to sign with a team this good then i am totally ok with him leaving. If he doesn't sign winning the Cup isn't the most important thing then and i would be ok with him moving on . If this is the case i would like to see Chevy trade him for something though but that's just me.
Joe Hallenback
Moderator
- Mar 4, 2005
- 15,711
- 22,950
Connor probably wishes they paid for pace like a lot of ppl have argued for ehlers as he was pacing for a 100 a few games later not so much. If he got injured and was paid for pace he probably gets at least another 2 mil.
I think it might even be a grass is greener scenario.
If Nik feels a certain way about how he's been utilized on the Jets and wants a bigger role - he might want to think on that. If he's going to a team that pays him big bucks to be on the first line, that brings a whole new set of expectations. Fans won't like it if he goes stone cold, starts turning pucks over for GA's and disappears in the playoffs.
Yeah to your point, I think pace vs absolutely stats is more of an opportunity for value as oppose to a point/game calibre player being worth as much as a guy who scores 85 points.
In Ehlers case it feels like a logical concession for us to make. Because of his consistent performance in the ice time he has been given. Just like a logical consession for him to make is the injury history and some consistent playoff struggles.
That middle ground seems to be in the $7.5-8.5M area, which aligns nicely with that glass ceiling Helle and Scheif set last season. That's why I'm hopeful and optimistic this gets done.
I see Ehlers coming in the mid-high 7m range, and then Vilardi a step below that. I think Ehlers can touch 8m in ufa, however the recent commentary around the team is that the vibes are v good and my impression is that Ehlers enjoys his time here. He's fully in his right to depart of course, but I don't think he's getting much more than 8m-8.5m in ufa
Johnny HFBOARDS
Trade you!
you saved my delicate fingers typing damage, True ^
"All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us - but also being on the greatest powerplay of all time will help."
- Gandalf the Grey
But, Kyle Connor has been incredibly consistent this year, until he wasn't.
Most games he has got a point a game so it would be hard to predict that he would now go this 4 game without putting up many points. It's not like he has hot streaks where it's 5 a game then games without. Therefore, it seemed like it would be a logical conclusion that if given the opportunity he would keep producing. He probably will keep producing, but, not as high of a rate as expected which would have made him a 100 pt guy. In fact, we thought we'd have 2 50 goal guys, until we didn't.
scelaton
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2012
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"I will take the Ring....though I do not know the way--but if I can't have a Ring I'll take $9M and first line minutes."
-Ehlers, with apologies to Frodo, Lord of the Rings
Sorry, I'm not quite following what you are saying here. Is the idea that it can be faulty extrapolating a players career averages to missed time? Or that we can never know for certain what would have happened? I may be misreading something.
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,696
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With any /60 stat, the extrapolation won't be linear forever. At some point, production will plateau and then eventually decline. Knowing exactly where those points are would be the ultimate goal in terms of maximizing usage
If Player X is producing (say) 2.5P/60 in 15 minutes of ice time... can he do that at 17 minutes? 19? At some point, fatigue sets in and his production will start to dip and you're left with diminishing returns
I've hypothesized (with very little to back it up, so basically talking out of my ass) that the Jets measure and track certain physiologic data points closely and use it for informing recovery and usage practices. I DO know that a few years ago they got into wearable technology and wanted use it to be on the cutting edge of recovery
On multiple occasions I can remember Maurice and Bones asked about Ehlers' ice time and the answer was along the lines of "that's the sweet spot where we want him". I just assumed that there's a rational for that
Public absence of the data will mean that the door is always open to "NHL coaches are just idiots who don't understand that if they played they're better players more, they'd win more" (which seems WAY more far fetched to me)
"There is a great deal of statistical proof that goals occur randomly. This does not mean that skill, strategy and execution give way to luck. It means that outcomes are uncertain, influenced by a myriad of factors including skill, strategy and execution."
- Gandalf the Grey
voyageur
Grizzled vet
- Jul 10, 2011
- 11,402
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Have to put Wheeler's name in there if you are going back 5 years. Then there is Dubois, who a majority of posters identified as a keeper in their desire to rid of Scheif. Turns out not a lot of people understood this team. Especially the internal dynamic when Dubois's trade made for two key players re-signing, something stats can't measure.
