With the cap taking some big jumps, it will be interesting to see who around the league signs first and sort of sets the market.
With the cap also projected to rise pretty significantly over a few years, I wonder how Agents and GMs will use that for valuations. IOW, if they are projecting 95.5 next year, 104 in 2026/2027, and 113.5 in 2027/2028, will an agent try and use a higher rate in the future against the cap hit %? Will they look to use a blend?
IOW, Chevy could say, in his last contract Ehlers was 6.8% of the cap. We're prepared to go to 8% (just using this as an example) based on 95.5 which would be 7.64.
And the agent is likely to say, no bloody way we're using a 95.5 cap valuation. We'll agree to the 8%, but on a 105M cap which would be 8.4.
For reference Scheifele just recently signed at a cap % of 9.7, so there's no way Ehlers is going to get that %. IMO, I think 8 to 8.5% is the max. It just depends on what cap $ they use. 8.5*95.5 = 8.12. 8.5*113.5 = 9.65.
I know people like to look at the actual salary number and say a player like Ehlers shouldn't make more $ than Scheifele. And I agree that he's not as valuable and wouldn't get the same if they signed at the same time. But when time moves on, and the cap jumps this much, I don't think there is a lot you can do as I think agents will look to the cap % more than the absolute $ number.