He's not blowing smoke-- he is a classy guy who, I am sure, feels special ties to Winnipeg and his Jets family. But sometimes you have to leave your family to fully develop to your potential.
A few months ago, I predicted the likelihood of Ehlers staying as <50%. Putting myself in his head and the heads of his closest advisors, including his father, I would have made the decision to leave, based on utilization alone. That has changed this year and he is now playing much closer (but not fully) to his potential, so it's closer to a 50:50 proposition.
Keep in mind there are teams in the Eastern Conference that would pay him top dollar, put him on their top line, give him star billing with attendant endorsement revenues, and keep him a short plane ride from Europe, where his real family lives.
It will be a hard decision, but he is firmly in the driver's seat, as he should be at this point in his career.