Or me. That doesn’t mean the team will pay a second line player as much as their number 1 centre. I never said I don’t think he deserves it or that it would be money well spent, I just don’t see it.
Player Discussion: Ehlers
- Thread starter Hunter368
- Start date
-
Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Also I am curious whether advanced stats value all types of play equally. Would a guy with a really long possession time get an advantage over a guy who has the puck for less than 2 seconds, before passing it to his teammate?
Xavier Laflamme
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2025
- 62
- 254
Ehlers is just as valuable to this team as anyone else, and sure he has many head scratcher plays but so does everyone else, Scheifs made a couple just in the last game for example, even the best of the best make some poor plays, shit did you watch the OT against the Avs and see what Mack and Makar did.
I don't think you understand just how worse off this team would be without Ehlers, he doesn't just pass the eye test for me, the advanced stats also back this up.
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,454
- 23,467
Me saying that he's the 4th most valuable forward we have isn't a slight. I'm not saying he isn't valuable.
Captains, 1Cs and 40 goal scorers don't grow on trees. Yes we'd miss Ehlers, but not as much as those three. Same can be said Vilardi
Are you saying we'd be better off with, say:
Connor Lowry Vilardi
Ehlers Names Perfetti
Vs
CSV
XNP
(X could be Nino, Lambert, Barron....). I'd take lineup 2 all day, and that proves my point
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,454
- 23,467
I think most analytics are geared towards shot metrics. Corsi is just shot attempt volume, whereas xGF tries to assign value to shots based on where they come from and who takes them
That's the rub with "posession" stats... they just use shot attempts as a proxy for actual puck possession.
Like everything else in stats and analytics, there's value to that if you use them as an objective observation within the context of what you're looking at. But just looking at a spreadsheet and deciding who is good and who isn't is idiotic... but we see a lot of that around here
Xavier Laflamme
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2025
- 62
- 254
I thought that goes without saying, Helly is god, he is more valuable than everyone.
Guys like Ehlers don't grow on trees either, he is our third best forward and that's without playing on a line with the other two in KC and Scheifs, Winnipeg doesn't have the benefit of attracting the best players in free agency, if Ehlers goes we simply cannot replace what he currently brings to the team.
No I am not saying that at all, obviously we would not want to lose Scheifs for Ehlers, I am saying in terms of the overall team on the ice Ehlers is just as valuable to this teams success as any other top player.
The simple fact of the matter is that losing any one of our top forwards would be very drastic to the teams success in the long run, KC, Scheifs, Ehlers, Lowry, Vilardi, this is a team sport and we need all these top guys to be successful.
On-ice xG metrics don't take account of who takes the shot.
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,454
- 23,467
It probably ought to somehow
That's a major flaw
It's like the shooting percentage convo. If someone holds onto the puck until they have a very high quality shot, they're more likely to score vs someone who flings the puck at the net from anywhere
Yet people will look at a high % shooter with fewer shots and say that they will regress to a "norm"
Cotton Eye Joe
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2023
- 1,594
- 2,639
I'd take lineup 1 all day.
Both lines in lineup 1 will score.
Only line 1 will score regularly in lineup 2 but they will get scored on even more.
Proved my point.
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,454
- 23,467
You a stats guy? If so, "prove" how you know the bolded to be true. I'm sure that Connor-Lowry-Vilardi has an extensive history and huge sample size of "scoring regularly" as documented on your beloved stats web pages that you can link to
You still haven't apologized for being wrong about CSV in the playoffs last year (this is the third post in the third thread asking you about that)
Feel free tio nclude said admonished of wrongness and apology in your reply
If I were you, I'd just put me on "ignore". You're in WAY over your head here
Cotton Eye Joe
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2023
- 1,594
- 2,639
Relax dude. Bring the rage level down.
It's quite apparent that when other posters disagree with you, you feel the need to try and attack and prove you are right every time. Rather juvenile.
When you feel the need to state your playing, coaching and officiating at a hight level, that is telling. I'm sure there's many on here with solid credentials. Those who toot their own horn, it usually ain't true.
Relax.
You put out the question which lineup is better and stated your opinion.
I've stated my choice which didn't match with yours.
Let it be.
Last edited:
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 9,454
- 23,467
Zero rage. You're projecting
You said "prove". I asked you to do so. Feel free
In the meantime... about CSV losing their matchup in thr playoffs last year like you claimed... still no comment now that you've seen the numbers? You keep ignoring me when I ask you about that. I wonder why....
Ehlers is an 80 to 90 point player all day long, if he’s given a spot on power play # 1 , and proper ice time, and used properly like Arneil is now. He is averaging over a point per game this year, which shows his real value
Ehlers is worth $ 8.5 to 9 mil per year as a UFA, and the Jets should resign Nik.
Ehlers is worth $ 8.5 to 9 mil per year as a UFA, and the Jets should resign Nik.
MardyBum
Registered User
Hope that with Arniel actually showing some trust in him and playing him late in the third, on PP1, and even in a matchup role we can get back in the running to re-sign him. Thought there was zero chance after last year, now I think there is one. Players want to feel needed.
No one cares how the contract will age outside the Helle/Scheif window. He's never seemed a big "money" chasing guy. Need to be adding to this core group not subtracting.
Hope they can get it done. No time for a step back looking for his replacement.
No one cares how the contract will age outside the Helle/Scheif window. He's never seemed a big "money" chasing guy. Need to be adding to this core group not subtracting.
Hope they can get it done. No time for a step back looking for his replacement.
Gil Fisher
Registered User
The next row of top forwards, Rantanen, Marner, etc are all looking for $13-14m. It's a long way down to $8.5m for Ehlers and Connor. Chevy needs a new batch of magic dust.
Last edited:
We don't truly know what's going on behind the scenes but yes Ehlers could say I'm not re-signing and Chevy isn't going to tell the public that because it would lower his trade value at the deadline. I don't know anything but Chevy hasn't let one of our drafted and developed stars walk for nothing so i am going by that. If Ehlers isn't traded at the deadline i think he re-signs .
Agreed. We have no idea what discussions Chevy has had with Ehlers camp. IMO it seems very unlikely there haven’t been some discussions. I still expect Ehlers will sign long term with the Jets and we will hear nothing about it until it is a done deal.
And as we are seeing by the Avs teams are pushing back on those demands even for the 100+ guys. While Ehlers is very important to our team he is also a long way down from Rantanen.
Xavier Laflamme
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2025
- 62
- 254
The Avs situation is weird considering Rantanen just came out saying he was surprised he was traded as he was willing to take a discount to stay, now of course we don't know what that discounted number is but still very strange.
Even still we are in a better situation to sign all our guys, already have two of our stars locked down at 8.5m, we should be easily able to afford both Ehlers and then KFC without much issue.
kanadalainen
A pint of dark matter, please.
Eh, I hope the Jets keep Ehlers for the next few years. He's good for the Jets on several levels (becoming a good leader). Perhaps almost as important -> I think he is enjoying his team this year. Its not hard to see if you listen to his interviews. The business side of the sport always throws us a few curveballs and nothing is carved in stone, but that's my 0.02.
AtomicJets
Registered User
- Dec 20, 2014
- 537
- 1,647
I'd love to keep Ehlers and I think the team would too.
I don't think Ehlers is interested - regardless of usage or salary. Just my personal opinion.
I don't think Ehlers is interested - regardless of usage or salary. Just my personal opinion.
You think Ehlers is just blowing smoke when he says how special it is to get to 500 points in Winnipeg with a team that he views as family?
scelaton
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2012
- 3,784
- 6,226
He's not blowing smoke-- he is a classy guy who, I am sure, feels special ties to Winnipeg and his Jets family. But sometimes you have to leave your family to fully develop to your potential.
A few months ago, I predicted the likelihood of Ehlers staying as <50%. Putting myself in his head and the heads of his closest advisors, including his father, I would have made the decision to leave, based on utilization alone. That has changed this year and he is now playing much closer (but not fully) to his potential, so it's closer to a 50:50 proposition.
Keep in mind there are teams in the Eastern Conference that would pay him top dollar, put him on their top line, give him star billing with attendant endorsement revenues, and keep him a short plane ride from Europe, where his real family lives.
It will be a hard decision, but he is firmly in the driver's seat, as he should be at this point in his career.
